Fighting breaks out between FGS & Jubbaland forces in Ras Kamboni

[Aurelian]

UPDATE:

Officials: Fighting breaks out between Somalia's Jubbaland region and federal government

Clashes come after Jubbaland held election against advice of authorities in Mogadishu, officials say

www.voanews.com

FGS landed two military airplanes so far with personnels in Jubbaland's Ras Kamboni airport.

 

[Aurelian]

 

[Aurelian]

Less than 200km away from the center of Kismaayo.

 

[Aurelian]

Military support for Ilyaas Gaboose?

 

[cow]

They landed about 7, ulusow will soon say two elections happened in kismaayo and both are void.

Plus the troops he landed majority are hawiye/ digil iyo mirifle.

If ulusow is serious about direct attack on kismaayo and kenya stays neutral. Madoobe will have a massive uprising inside of kismaayo and an army waiting outside of kismaayo.

Madoobe will need the support of kenya or he will loose big time.

 

[Aurelian]

They landed about 7, ulusow will soon say two elections happened in kismaayo and both are void.

Plus the troops he landed majority are hawiye/ digil iyo mirifle.

That is not a realistic possibility, but probably will support Ilyaas, that is the most logical way, having both of them out and non Ogadeen personnel on the land will not sit with the locals in anyway.

Axmed Madoobe was announced to be the new president of Jubbaland in the last hour.

 

[cow]

That is one possibility, but probably will support Ilyaas, that is the most logical way, having both of them out and non Ogadeen personnel on the land will not sit with the locals in anyway.

Axmed Madoobe was announced to be the new president of Jubbaland.

They whole ilyas thing is to say two illegal elections took place. Ulusow also tried to divide ogadeen but hamsa has no power. So now it will be direct war. Inside kismaayo madoobe has huge enemies waiting for a chance.

If ulusow is serious about war and kenya stays neutral. There is no way for madoobe to survive.

My analysis is, ulusow will camp outside of kismaayo and give money and weapons to anti madoobe elements inside kismaayo. Then when a war inside kismaayo starts ulusow will deploy his troops to aid them on the cover off stopping a war.

Another underlying aspect was madoobe promised abgaal seats and important positions inside jubbaland maamul which he now took back.

 

[Aurelian]

They whole ilyas thing is to say two illegal elections took place. Ulusow also tried to divide ogadeen but hamsa has no power. So now it will be direct war. Inside kismaayo madoobe has huge enemies waiting for a chance.

If ulusow is serious about war and kenya stays neutral. There is no way for madoobe to survive.

My analysis is, ulusow will camp outside of kismaayo and give money and weapons to anti madoobe elements inside kismaayo. Then when a war inside kismaayo starts ulusow will deploy his troops to aid them on the cover off stopping a war.

Another underlying aspect was madoobe promised abgaal seats and important positions inside jubbaland maamul which he now took back.

Why HSM will need the cover to stop a war when he is seen as the one who started it? It makes no sense, Ilyaas was announced to be the "president" by the pro HSM, they will go with him. And use force in the name of law and order

 

[Aurelian]

 

[cow]

Why HSM will need the cover to stop a war when he is seen as the one who started it? It makes no sense, Ilyaas was announced to be the "president" by the pro HSM, they will go with him. And use force in the name of law and order

I guarantee ulusow in the next couple of hours will release a press statement which says " two illegal elections took place the government does not recognise either of them".

Ulusow needs to station his troops on the outskirts of kismaayo because madoobe enemies need reassurances before they start anything inside I.e they need to know if ulusow is serious.

And he needs to keep the hope of jubbaland seat alive if he recognises ilyas then why would any of the other mucaarids support ulusow over madoobe. They need to think they have a chance of becoming next president of Jubbaland.

Ulusow 1st pick is hamse

 

[Webb]

Having unsecured airstrips everywhere is probably an unmitigated disaster for state leaders

 

[Somali Saayid]

War dag dag ah

Waxaa gabi ahaanba lala wareegay #jazeerada
#KAAMBONI waxaana la wareegay nin sargaal ah oo lagu magacaabo #maxamuud__fanax oo ahaa taliyaha ciidanka aaga jasiiradaha sida gudhaa buur gaabo iyo kaambooni

Waxaana wararku shegayan in diyaardo qaad iyo kuwo military ee dhanka dowlada somalia ka yimid oo ciidamo military ah sida ay ka dagayaan halkaas

Taliyaha aagaas la wareegay ciidanka ugu badan jubbaland ayuu haystaa

Waa #afganbi lagu sameeyay geedo naar sawirada taliaya kaambooni la wareegay dhawaan iga fisha geedo naar waa ahaaday hadii #maxamud__fanax afgamniyee



Interesting turn of events, blackie is facing a coup in one of his biggest strongholds. Let's see what he does next.

 

[Somali Saayid]

 

[cow]

Unverified news is saying ilyas has surrendered to madoobe

 

[Somali Saayid]

Unverified news is saying ilyas has surrendered to madoobe

*captured

Official statement from the landed troops

 

[DR OSMAN]

*captured

Official statement from the landed troops

How are these guys gonna be reinforced thru soldier supply line? just igu sawir at best and to create some publicity instability worries in JL, there no aideed or mahdi war happening here bra, once ppl know your game plan, it's called obsolete and there no real point pursuing it

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Ras Kamboni forces have been called up, Madobe rides into battle once again

 

[The Oponian Guild]

How are these guys gonna be reinforced thru soldier supply line? just igu sawir at best and to create some publicity instability worries in JL, there no aideed or mahdi war happening here bra, once ppl know your game plan, it's called obsolete and there no real point pursuing it

This is just phase 1, more troops will land in over the next few weeks. Then it’ll be showdown time.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

And whaddaya know, Madoobes OG kinsmen across the border have started making moves

 

[Aurelian]

Hassan Ali Khaire and Sheikh Sharif