Fighting breaks out between FGS & Jubbaland forces in Ras Kamboni

[Itsnotthateasy]

Am I deluded to think that HSM will retire in 2026 instead of running again? I think he's aware his time is up.

HSM second term is probably the best thing for Somalia to secure central Somalia over the next 6 years. This will create the firm base to work from and then another term to secure the South and North. A good ten years will be enough.

Political/economic fragmentation and some military incursions can begin in north and south with a later push from central regions in a few years. They need to be softened up first.

 

[TheLand]

It will mostly likely be a stand off while FGS stall to fly more troops into Ras Kamboni

Would be ridiculous to try to fly into that dusty narco-airstrip with zugs and heavy machine guns pointing towards it. I think it’s all for show, he will back down and ask for a few Hutus to be made into JL xildhibaans such as that burnt daanyeer looking guy madoobe tahriibed back to Xamar in handcuffs a while back.

 

[berberaboy66]

Am I deluded to think that HSM will retire in 2026 instead of running again? I think he's aware his time is up.

Go look at HSM in 2022 compared to now. He’s aged about 10 years it’s best for everyone involved if he goes

 

[TheLand]

Go look at HSM in 2022 compared to now. He’s aged about 10 years it’s best for everyone involved if he goes

He wants to be like the 90 year old Saudi oil sheikhs of old. Ibn Al-Culusow.

 

[JamalFarah]

Absolutely the dumbest political gamble. Any federal president sending in troops to forcibly unseat any sitting leader is insane and akin to dancing on gunpowder.

From all the federal states, Jubbaland is the only one we can confidently call a one-party dictatorship, whereas we see leadership transitions everywhere else. It’s an open secret, and making a fuss about it now, especially when so much of the country is governed by Al-Shabaab, is foolish.

It sets a bad precedent either way: either we see the federal government violently, or threatening to violently, remove leadership, or we have federal states completely dissolving into micro-states willing to violently battle the federal government. A taboo until this point that all battles would maintain within the political format.

The support for Madobe, however, is rooted more in dislike of HSM than any genuine love for him . Madobe is a man with no backbone or belief. If Al-Shabaab takes over tomorrow, he will gladly reintegrate his forces with them or with whoever becomes a major power within Somalia.

If Madobe truly cared for Jubbaland and making the state succeed, he would extend a hand to the Marehans and the snippets of Rahanweyns that live in Jubbaland. But he hasn’t because it would mean conceding his absolute rule.

HSM could feasibly go down, even though many forum members would disagree, as possibly the most productive post-Civil War president (not much competition). This may be driven by genuine patriotism, but most likely spurred by the alignment of his own interests with the national interest, especially since his falling out with Ethiopia. Regardless of the reason, he has a solid list of achievements, which he risks undoing if he escalates this nonsense in Jubbaland.

His gamble in SWS went well, and I am afraid he has developed a gambler's high.

 

[TheLand]

Absolutely the dumbest political gamble. Any federal president sending in troops to forcibly unseat any sitting leader is insane and akin to dancing on gunpowder.

From all the federal states, Jubbaland is the only one we can confidently call a one-party dictatorship, whereas we see leadership transitions everywhere else. It’s an open secret, and making a fuss about it now, especially when so much of the country is governed by Al-Shabaab, is foolish.

It sets a bad precedent either way: either we see the federal government violently, or threatening to violently, remove leadership, or we have federal states completely dissolving into micro-states willing to violently battle the federal government. A taboo until this point that all battles would maintain within the political format.

The support for Madobe, however, is rooted more in dislike of HSM than any genuine love for him . Madobe is a man with no backbone or belief. If Al-Shabaab takes over tomorrow, he will gladly reintegrate his forces with them or with whoever becomes a major power within Somalia.

If Madobe truly cared for Jubbaland and making the state succeed, he would extend a hand to the Marehans and the snippets of Rahanweyns that live in Jubbaland. But he hasn’t because it would mean conceding his absolute rule.

HSM could feasibly go down, even though many forum members would disagree, as possibly the most productive post-Civil War president (not much competition). This may be driven by genuine patriotism, but most likely spurred by the alignment of his own interests with the national interest, especially since his falling out with Ethiopia. Regardless of the reason, he has a solid list of achievements, which he risks undoing if he escalates this nonsense in Jubbaland.

His gamble in SWS went well, and I am afraid he has developed a gambler's high.

he is easily going to make this a darood vs hawiye thing if he keeps going like this. I saw carry on mudane, let’s see what this gets you.

 

[Aurelian]

FGS announced that the election that happened today in Kismayo to be illegal, and is seeking the arrest of Madoobe.

 

[JamalFarah]

he is easily going to make this a darood vs hawiye thing if he keeps going like this. I saw carry on mudane, let’s see what this gets you.

This is not the 1990s; Somalia has fractured deeply, and large-scale clan mobilizations are not going to happen. HSM is no Aideed, and Madobe is no Barre. Outside their own direct subclan support, backing will not be substantial. If both of them start fighting, it will only further legitimize Al-Shabaab.

 

[TheLand]

This is not the 1990s; Somalia has fractured deeply, and large-scale clan mobilizations are not going to happen. HSM is no Aideed, and Madobe is no Barre. Outside their own direct subclan support, backing will not be substantial. If both of them start fighting, it will only further legitimize Al-Shabaab.

I agree with you overall but, we saw what happened in Sool last year sxb. It’s def possible if it really gets out of hand. I’m hearing some OGs from DDS are headed to Kismayo now.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

This is not the 1990s; Somalia has fractured deeply, and large-scale clan mobilizations are not going to happen. HSM is no Aideed, and Madobe is no Barre. Outside their own direct subclan support, backing will not be substantial. If both of them start fighting, it will only further legitimize Al-Shabaab.

Maybe they air strike him and his forces.

HSM has full backing, most people are still in denial. It's heading in that direction.

 

[Aurelian]

 

[Devilsadvocate]

HSM second term is probably the best thing for Somalia to secure central Somalia over the next 6 years. This will create the firm base to work from and then another term to secure the South and North. A good ten years will be enough.

Political/economic fragmentation and some military incursions can begin in north and south with a later push from central regions in a few years. They need to be softened up first.

So far, he's been all talk and zero action. He's the same guy who said Shabab will cease to exist from June 2024, and we all know that is the furthest thing from the truth. I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[Bahal]

Mayor of Kismayo vs Mayor of Mogadishu round 20



Jaalleyaal we're never going home. I only hope the nursing homes will replace the violent Shaniquas with AI robots when it's our time.

 

[RiceMuncher]

Mayor of Kismayo vs Mayor of Mogadishu round 20



Jaalleyaal we're never going home. I only hope the nursing homes will replace the violent Shaniquas with AI robots when it's our time.

Bastarkii baqtiyey xabashiga Zenawi played Chess on a level we can never ever recover from. Its Groundhog day for every admin that comes, and they always wake up stuck in a quicksand. Then their time is up and a new admin restarts the game.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Bastarkii baqtiyey xabashiga Zenawi played Chess on a level we can never ever recover from. Its Groundhog day for every admin that comes, and they always wake up stuck in a quicksand. Then their time is up and a new admin restarts the game.

You think the IC spending billion of dollars to accept never getting off the ground? They stupid but not that stupid.

Somalia is going to take flight like the Hindenburg or the Challenger rocket ship.

 

[TheLand]

Mayor of Kismayo vs Mayor of Mogadishu round 20



Jaalleyaal we're never going home. I only hope the nursing homes will replace the violent Shaniquas with AI robots when it's our time.

I guess you never plan to have kids

 

[Chase]

Nothing will come of this, there's no way an SNA that can't even control Xamar can wage a war with Jubaland hundreds of kms away, and logistically sustain a campaign like that, all optics and igu sawir.

 

[Bahal]

Bastarkii baqtiyey xabashiga Zenawi played Chess on a level we can never ever recover from. Its Groundhog day for every admin that comes, and they always wake up stuck in a quicksand. Then their time is up and a new admin restarts the game.

I've accepted Somalia and the Somali people are doomed a long time ago. We'll be yet another ethnicity that's little more than a footnote in history.

I guess you never plan to have kids

Your children will be even more westernized than you, and their children will be blue haired non binary afrocentric pansexuals adeer. I promise you there are people on this very forum who will one day have grandchildren named Roger iyo Amy who'll say their grandpa/ma was from somewhere in Asia that used to be called Samalia or something

 

[Midwestern]

Madoowe Waxay Kaga yeersiiyeen “I’m Somali, I’m not Kenyan”.

 

[Pastoralist]

Gorgor are the best of the best, but they need to stand down here. Anything past ras kamboni, there will be consequences

50 million in port revenue+fleet of war technicals+home court advantage+numerically superior in troops. Madobe has enough

Don’t have a horse in this race, I just don’t want to see our Turkish trained troops die to other Somalis when they could be fighting AS.