Absolutely the dumbest political gamble. Any federal president sending in troops to forcibly unseat any sitting leader is insane and akin to dancing on gunpowder.
From all the federal states, Jubbaland is the only one we can confidently call a one-party dictatorship, whereas we see leadership transitions everywhere else. It’s an open secret, and making a fuss about it now, especially when so much of the country is governed by Al-Shabaab, is foolish.
It sets a bad precedent either way: either we see the federal government violently, or threatening to violently, remove leadership, or we have federal states completely dissolving into micro-states willing to violently battle the federal government. A taboo until this point that all battles would maintain within the political format.
The support for Madobe, however, is rooted more in dislike of HSM than any genuine love for him . Madobe is a man with no backbone or belief. If Al-Shabaab takes over tomorrow, he will gladly reintegrate his forces with them or with whoever becomes a major power within Somalia.
If Madobe truly cared for Jubbaland and making the state succeed, he would extend a hand to the Marehans and the snippets of Rahanweyns that live in Jubbaland. But he hasn’t because it would mean conceding his absolute rule.
HSM could feasibly go down, even though many forum members would disagree, as possibly the most productive post-Civil War president (not much competition). This may be driven by genuine patriotism, but most likely spurred by the alignment of his own interests with the national interest, especially since his falling out with Ethiopia. Regardless of the reason, he has a solid list of achievements, which he risks undoing if he escalates this nonsense in Jubbaland.
His gamble in SWS went well, and I am afraid he has developed a gambler's high.
