Gobolist Questions and Predictions Between SL and PL in the next 24months.

[Reer-Bari]

larrythenotsopuntite. brother we have already had this talk. why are you bound on splitting up our warsangeli brothers who claim puntland and have never even had talks with khaatuumo and never even considered joining them. and i already told you that most of sanaag would never join khaatumo or somaliland.

prediction

puntland secures its borders at tukarak and instead focuses on fully capturing sanaag. puntland elects a dubays warsangeli president and an calisaleebaan vp. puntland lets the sool residents decide once and for all which side they are on. somaliland gets sool and puntland get sanaag

this article was written today
https://mareeg.com/sanaag-region-and-the-path-forward/2/

The current regional administration in the region maintains a strong, disciplined, and well-trained armed forces serve the primary deterrence against secessionist aggression. Incursions from the West of Erigavo happened numerous times in the past but was summarily reversed. The illusion of closing a defunct, colonial border is a shared sentiment.

For instance, the famous Dhahar battle prompted the former “Somaliland” president to fire his “defense minister” after heavily armed forcesunder his commandmet their first ignominious defeat.

this is more likely
SSB is a political movement that is currently brewing and gaining strength. SSB stands to establish itself a potent alternative to the skewed and false narrative as “the disputed regions” allude to the unsuspecting reader.SSB stands for Sanaag,parts of Sool and Bari regions—basedon the historic lands of the Warsangeli clan. Although Puntland undertook to exploit the Galgala conflict, SSB is committed to work with various stakeholders, including Puntland, to ensure the region does not become a permanent haven for terrorists.The federal government must not abandon the people of Sanaag and Sool or leave them to the tender mercies of an aggressive and expansionist secessionist administration that is clearly backed by Ethiopia and UK as it is evident in the Matt Bough’s letter to Somalia’s Embassy in Nairobi.

 

[DR OSMAN]

PL is far more stable then SL, SL needs 'external' enemies and it needs to create them at all cost since inside it's own isaaq clan, if they don't see an external threat well it will be what u see now but on 'steroids'. Isaaq is on a very shaky foundation and any political analyst who doesn't say this is just truly lying or has some agenda. How can u compare the unity of a country like america who built a system that their people wanted and answered to their cultural appetite to someone like Iran who build their countries not one what they people want but on external enemies in the region and becoming a power of the region. U can't compare the two really!!! The one based on external matter will die the second the external matter is resolved or out of the picture. It happened to siyad and his external factor ethiopia to unite somalis, it happened to SYL its external factor colonizer to unite us. Ahhhh and SL repeats the same game and think it will get a miraclously different result. Nahhhhhh u wont ya fool

 

[Arma]

I don't know why these silly Porcupine kids, are getting excited for. This is just the usual Dhulo side switching. It's not a big deal, whatsoever.

 

[Starscream]

Gobolists,

Aside from what’s happening between Puntland and Somaliland, every other Gobol is watching this very carefully.

My question to Reer Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, SWS and Jubbaland is what will happen in the next 24 months when Puntland stops laying claim to Sool and Sanaag on behalf of the central government and Sool and Sanaag see your progress as an opportunity to join the federal republic of Somalia.

Hold that thought and let’s get into some predictions from a gobolists point of view, because his conflict is far from over.

When Abdullahi Yusuf left Laascaanood after capturing and securing the region, he took his forces to Somalia to help usher in what you have today: The Federal System. When that happened there was nobody to defend the captured region, and SL took the opportunity to cease the region back when Abdullahi Yusufs’ key military assets where deployed to Xamaar.

After losing the poorly defended territory, the status quo was maintained between PL and SL with a very dark cloud above the political arena in the region—until January 2018.

In 2018, two new threats have taken place in SL that haven’t happened in the past 10-15 years: SL interclan uprisings and the maturing of Somali Gobols within Somalia.

These two factors alone will dictate the predictions of the region in the next 24months.

Here are my predictions from a gobolist point of view on why Sool and Sanaag might be holding Somali reconciliation efforts hostage.


Prediction one:

Puntland officially recognizes the British boundary of Somaliland and Khatuumo. PL focuses on building a relationship with SL based on security and mutual economic interests.

Outcome:

Khatumo ignites tention with SL, who has finally come into agreement with her border dispute and uses the opportunity to declare independence and allegence with Xamaar. Now we are back to square one and this time the conflict is between KS and SFG vs Somaliland, with Puntland maintaining a neutrality and step in as a mediator of both parties.

Prediction two:

SL interclan conflicts will increase and Khatumo will use it as an opportunity to declare independence. As gobols throughout Somalia gain stability and increase political maturity and development; the Sool and Sanaag region will admire their success and wish to emulate them in their region.


Outcome:

Benadir State is recognized to draw support for a third Hawiye State that brings Abgaal into the negotiations with Khatumo to recognize her and usher in a third Darood state within the SFG. As other gobolists support the these two new states, pressure will rise in Somaliland, as the likelyhood of recognition is extinguished. This will be a fatal blow to recognition and likely blow into a full fledged war between Somalia and SL.


Prediction Three:

SL continues its marginalization of non-Isaaq tribes. Tensions peak and Wadaniland declare independence from Somaliland. With the threat of Khatumo and Wadaniland declaring independence from SL, the federal army of Somalia will move its military assets to Bosasso and Garowe to insure the peaceful handover of the two new states into the SFG.

Outcome:

UAE withdrawals plans to build a military base in SL. Talks of opening the Berbera base to Russians gets the global attention SL needs.

The Russian military base is the final leverage SL has to get independence. As America and Europe see this as a threat. The British give a nod to the commonwealth countries to expediate the recognition of SL.



Allah knows best,


True gobolists want peace and prosperity for Somalia’s regions and states from Djibouti to Ras Kamboni without foreign influence. If the people of Sool and Sanaag declare once and for all their alligence to SL (without ever flipflopping and double dipping)— We the gobolists must wash our hands from dragging each other down and finally give Somaliland her Icitraf and the celebration and handover in the very place the conflict was avoided—Tuqarak.

When has ever captured secured anything before he it was held by usp who joined mjland
The group he moved was seating there since the 90s

 

[Starscream]

As for solving the siiland the dhulos qashin can solve rather easily just round up the civilians of the groups who work for siiland and give em 5 hours to defect
If they don't proceed wit the plan of extermination and land grabbing
You gain new territory plus lower there number for future conflicts

 

[Deactivated]

I heard this a lot all indications seems to point that after the shabab are dealt with. The northern problem will be the last issue for somalis to deal with be it throught talk or through a fight.

Then real work can begin where we

Maxamed Xaaji Aadan, the man in the clip is Ciise Maxamuud, Majeerteen. He was Caydiid's deputy when his people were being massacred and displaced in Xamar and Kismaayo. He is well know a a betrayer of his people and has mental problems as well. Since those days he has been an exile in Hargeysa, and is not even allowed to return to his hometown Garoowe. Even this interview was recorded in Hargeysa as part of Jeegaanland propaganda. I'm surprised that you swallowed his bullshit hook, line and sinker, yet you claim to be from Puntland.

This is a conflict and there will be fake news or fake Majeerteen in this case. If you are in touch with your people, you know that no true Majeerteen will talk like that. Harti are brothers, stop trying to divide them.

I don’t you heard what he said in this video.

There is no division. All Hartis know where thier Gobol starts and ends.

 

[Deactivated]

As for solving the siiland the dhulos qashin can solve rather easily just round up the civilians of the groups who work for siiland and give em 5 hours to defect
If they don't proceed wit the plan of extermination and land grabbing
You gain new territory plus lower there number for future conflicts

Your Harti calibration has always been off.

You can’t keep calling both sides your enemies. Just focus on what you know is Dhullo land.

 

[Deactivated]

All your outcomes are separation or division and besides focus on your own gobol like you always preach, are you from Gedo

Im from Socotra

 

[waraabe]

let me tell you whats gonna happen, SL will secure its borders and if maamulka puntland says a word, garowe will be the new border.


electing amiir biixi was the best decision SL made, no wonder reer somalia were crying about him

 

[Deactivated]

Maxamed Xaaji Aadan, the man in the clip is Ciise Maxamuud, Majeerteen. He was Caydiid's deputy when his people were being massacred and displaced in Xamar and Kismaayo. He is well know a a betrayer of his people and has mental problems as well. Since those days he has been an exile in Hargeysa, and is not even allowed to return to his hometown Garoowe. Even this interview was recorded in Hargeysa as part of Jeegaanland propaganda. I'm surprised that you swallowed his bullshit hook, line and sinker, yet you claim to be from Puntland.

This is a conflict and there will be fake news or fake Majeerteen in this case. If you are in touch with your people, you know that no true Majeerteen will talk like that. Harti are brothers, stop trying to divide them.

This man is a different kind of asset during MJ diplomacy.

Your brain explodes when you see an MJ who can work very close with Hawiye and Isaaq during difficult times.

 

[Deactivated]

let me tell you whats gonna happen, SL will secure its borders and if maamulka puntland says a word, garowe will be the new border.


electing amiir biixi was the best decision SL made, no wonder reer somalia were crying about him

Isaaq have never passed the British border and never will.

Harti recognize where the colonial border ends. In reality Puntlands border has always ended naturally where non-Harti degans begin, but it’s there choice who they want in their land.

Somalis are nervous about Bixi because they don’t want someone who isn’t calm at the register. It’s political suicide for Bixi to pass the Harti border/ Colonial border.

Puntland is getting one step closer to fully focusing on herself peacefully.

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[Merchant of Mogadishu]

This conflict is unnecessary, a waste for all belligerents and an injustice to the innocent Somalis who have suffered in this, they should realise that peace, prosperity and co operation is the best way forward for all gobols and de facto independent states, as in the case of Somaliland.