Honest Question: How can Slanders convince our neighbours to support independence?

[Von]

Oromos live east of the Rift Valley and they lay claim to everything up to jigjiga. If oromos led Ethiopia they would annex the Somali region.

I swear to god I knew you would find your way in here Menelik, take your fake ethio ass to Ethiospot if they got one
but back to your answer i didnt say full annexation and Oromo origins aren't native east of the rift, they are west and central rift people. we've got the Oromo expansion and Menelik II to thank for them being on the east sides.

 

[Adam Isaaq]

Oromos live east of the Rift Valley and they lay claim to everything up to jigjiga. If oromos led Ethiopia they would annex the Somali region.

If I were a kettle i'd boil water.

 

[Mokillem]

I wanted to reach out and try to find out the answer to this question. Of course there are issues in the east, but let's just assume an arrangement was worked out where even something akin to Khatumo remained in Somalia, what is the problem? I personally know that I love to be able to visit a booming Hamar, and I sometimes think that people from the south don't realise that an independent Somaliland would actually be great for them. Leave aside all tribal issues for now, what would it take for you guys to accept SL?

Change the name before you guys talk , why is your country called "Somaliland".

Once you do that, understand that Somaliland will simply turn into another South Sudan , the Isaaq will simply increase in power and marginalise other tribes.

 

[Ras]

You don't ask for sovereignty... you can only take it.

The only way Somaliland will get it's independence is if they develop a decent economy that's large enough to fund an army that could protect it's borders.

No one is stopping them from industrializing and exporting their products across the world.

No compromise is enough for Xamar to give up a part of Somalia. It's like trying to negotiate with a lion while in between his jaws.

However Xamar can't do jack if you decide to smuggle in an air defense system that would protect your borders.

 

[Mokillem]

You don't ask for sovereignty... you can only take it.

The only way Somaliland will get it's independence is if they develop a decent economy that's large enough to fund an army that could protect it's borders.

No one is stopping them from industrializing and exporting their products across the world.

No compromise is enough for Xamar to give up a part of Somalia. It's like trying to negotiate with a lion while in between his jaws.

However Xamar can't do jack if you decide to smuggle in an air defense system that would protect your borders.

lmao , how can they afford that when they cannot even manage their resources to withhold a drought ?

 

[Ras]

lmao , how can they afford that when they cannot even manage their resources to withhold a drought ?

If they haven't figured it out in the past 25 years then it probably won't happen.

Somaliland should just give up and work with the South to build a country that also works for them.

If they wait until the new constitution is settled; they'll have no choice but to accept the rules set out for them by others.

If they are smart they'll use this whole ictiraaf bs as a tactic in the negotiations with Xamar for more autonomous powers as a state.

 

[gurey]

Yes Younis, but my point is this. Do you not think self determination is important? Let's remove the border issue. Take all the contested land for the sake of argument. And let's assume that as far as the West is concerned it is not an obstacle to their work with the federal government. I am trying to remove all these things just to get to the conceptual point. What would it take for you to accept Somaliland?

Me personally I have no issues with somaliland independence. The status quo is unwinnable to either side. Somali lands are big enough for us both.

I think right now its become more of a fadhi kudirir for both leaders and not enough honest discussions with the hope of solving this issue is taking place.

Futhermore would you want this argument to continue long into this century even if somalia manages to emerge from this anarchy period? I wouldn't personally.

Rest of Somalia is committed to Somalia and therefore we cannot have 1 region with millions of people who feel forced to join and stay. If that happens it will only give way to more separatist movement millitias who are more than happy to wait for instability and take up arms and before you know it we are back to square 1.

Somaliland in my opinion must become independent.

 

[Adam Isaaq]

Change the name before you guys talk , why is your country called "Somaliland".

Once you do that, understand that Somaliland will simply turn into another South Sudan , the Isaaq will simply increase in power and marginalise other tribes.

I hate the name Somaliland, but there are reasons why it was chosen. I don't believe it will turn into South Sudan as we have all the basic infrastructure of a state. It works now as it is. The one thing I worry about more than chaos is resource curse and the problems of getting wealth without a mature political culture, or if the wealth isn't developed by civil society. I am Issaq and I don't think a state will result in marginalization of other tribes. I think the fact is that we have almost an Obama style situation in our current election where the family close to either candidate has a good chance of losing a lot of things on the ground just to have a figurehead. I am close to one of the candidates tribally and I know it would probably be better for us if the other lot won.

You don't ask for sovereignty... you can only take it.

The only way Somaliland will get it's independence is if they develop a decent economy that's large enough to fund an army that could protect it's borders.

No one is stopping them from industrializing and exporting their products across the world.

No compromise is enough for Xamar to give up a part of Somalia. It's like trying to negotiate with a lion while in between his jaws.

However Xamar can't do jack if you decide to smuggle in an air defense system that would protect your borders.

Somaliland does have a (relatively) strong army, and I think we would love to help the south with it's security problems, but all of these things would require a relationship built on respect that is just absent today.

 

[Ras]

I hate the name Somaliland, but there are reasons why it was chosen. I don't believe it will turn into South Sudan as we have all the basic infrastructure of a state. It works now as it is. The one thing I worry about more than chaos is resource curse and the problems of getting wealth without a mature political culture, or if the wealth isn't developed by civil society. I am Issaq and I don't think a state will result in marginalization of other tribes. I think the fact is that we have almost an Obama style situation in our current election where the family close to either candidate has a good chance of losing a lot of things on the ground just to have a figurehead. I am close to one of the candidates tribally and I know it would probably be better for us if the other lot won.



Somaliland does have a (relatively) strong army, and I think we would love to help the south with it's security problems, but all of these things would require a relationship built on respect that is just absent today.

I think you read my post wrong. The army was meant for against the South.

 

[Adam Isaaq]

Me personally I have no issues with somaliland independence. The status quo is unwinnable to either side. Somali lands are big enough for us both.

I think right now its become more of a fadhi kudirir for both leaders and not enough honest discussions with the hope of solving this issue is taking.

Futhermore would you want this argument to continue long into this century even if somalia manages to emerge from this anarchy period? I wouldn't personally.

Rest of Somalia is committed to Somalia and therefore we cannot have 1 region with millions of people who feel forced to join and stay. If that happens it will only give way to more separatist movement millitias who are more than happy to wait for instability and take up arms and before you know it we are back to square 1.

Somaliland in my opinion must become independent.

I think this is completely rational. I think independence is win-win. I have always believed that independence is impossible without the agreement of Hamar. Their is no deal to be done by going around them to the international community. The sad thing is I think another war is more likely than independence, which would be such a disaster. After all, it is a very strange situation, where the President of Somalia can visit every country in the world but cannot fly to Hargeisa.

 

[Adam Isaaq]

I think you read my post wrong. The army was meant for against the South.

But do you think the South would fight for Somaliland? What would that even look like? It sounds so far-fetched, but what are the long term possibilities if the status quo continues as villa Somalia gets stronger and better able to govern it's existing territories?

 

[Von]

Me personally I have no issues with somaliland independence. The status quo is unwinnable to either side. Somali lands are big enough for us both.

I think right now its become more of a fadhi kudirir for both leaders and not enough honest discussions with the hope of solving this issue is taking place.

Futhermore would you want this argument to continue long into this century even if somalia manages to emerge from this anarchy period? I wouldn't personally.

Rest of Somalia is committed to Somalia and therefore we cannot have 1 region with millions of people who feel forced to join and stay. If that happens it will only give way to more separatist movement millitias who are more than happy to wait for instability and take up arms and before you know it we are back to square 1.

Somaliland in my opinion must become independent.

come on man, this is somalis we are talking about. they hop on anything if it means short term gains, if Somalia showed the desire for true change and applied it they'll jump ship. Somalis got no loyalty

 

[Adam Isaaq]

come on man, this is somalis we are talking about. they hope on anything if it means short term gains, if Somalia showed the desire for true change and applied it they'll jump ship. Somalis got no loyalty

I know what you mean about short term gains. I speak with farmers and so many are reluctant to grow trees that fruit after 6/7/8 years. It seems like an eternity to them. Same reason why we don't grow our own khat on a mass scale, which is perhaps the biggest financial problem in the country. Good news is, if we all go back and work we will all become rich, and that counts for the North & the South.

 

[Mokillem]

I hate the name Somaliland, but there are reasons why it was chosen. I don't believe it will turn into South Sudan as we have all the basic infrastructure of a state. It works now as it is. The one thing I worry about more than chaos is resource curse and the problems of getting wealth without a mature political culture, or if the wealth isn't developed by civil society. I am Issaq and I don't think a state will result in marginalization of other tribes. I think the fact is that we have almost an Obama style situation in our current election where the family close to either candidate has a good chance of losing a lot of things on the ground just to have a figurehead. I am close to one of the candidates tribally and I know it would probably be better for us if the other lot won.



Somaliland does have a (relatively) strong army, and I think we would love to help the south with it's security problems, but all of these things would require a relationship built on respect that is just absent today.

I'm sorry Saxib, you seem to have fallen under the "Somaliland delusional disorder" it can be defined as : the belief that Somaliland is a separate democratic state with strong institutions.

To begin , Somaliland is already becoming more and more authoritarian. Freedom of speech within Somaliland has been silenced which will eventually lead to a spiral of corruption and humanitarian abuses.The end result will simply be an attack against its marginalised citizens who are not supporting the government unconditionally.

Another failing institution within Somaliland and even somali weyn is the lack of management , why else did a large amount of "somalilanders" suffer from a famine in a country with one of the most arable lands throughout Somalia.

Finally, your statement that Somaliland wont turn into south sudan is inherently flawed. It has all the makings of a failed state:
Widespread corruption , lack of management , tribal tensions and old wounds. All it takes is one Daarod in the Maakhir or Khaatumo region to be killed and the region will flare into a wide spread rebellion. Funnily enough Somaliland government will simply do what Siaad did and bomb the areas into submission.

In conclusions, this Somaliland dream wont happen. If anything Somaliland will get worse , there is a corrupt inner circle within Somaliland trying to reap the greatest benefits it can from the Northerners. Unfortunately all they have to do is shout Qabil and the Isaaq people will happily follow them to the slaughter house.

 

[El padrone]

I know but I am trying to concede even that to get to the fundamental issue here. I'm saying concede all of the points. What is left? None of us remember a functioning state. I just want to know what role Somaliland has in their understanding of their own state. My people are from north Hargeisa and we have all tribes from the south their and investing. It makes me very happy that they feel safe in Hargeisa. They have that without us being one state out of the broader cultural affinity, so I want to know what they think they lose with an independent Somaliland.

Sxb you forgot that we are already INDEPENDENT since 1991!

You meant what the south will lose with sland recognized whole wide, if so, i think the number one reason they keep claiming us is the UNION sland created with the south and their pipe dream of soomaliweyn!

they think Sland getting ictiraaf is big failure to their central gov and will open pandora box of secessionism in their federal states. which is illogical because Sland was a country before and has every right to revoke their union. also theres legal questions of the legitimacy of the 1960 union with the south!

Also their percieved threat of xabashi proxy war threat from sland might be another reason imo.

at the end of the day recognition or without, Sland will stay DE FACTO INDEPENDENT!

 

[Adam Isaaq]

I'm sorry Saxib, you seem to have fallen under the "Somaliland delusional disorder" it can be defined as : the belief that Somaliland is a separate democratic state with strong institutions.

To begin , Somaliland is already becoming more and more authoritarian. Freedom of speech within Somaliland has been silenced which will eventually lead to a spiral of corruption and humanitarian abuses.The end result will simply be an attack against its marginalised citizens who are not supporting the government unconditionally.

Another failing institution within Somaliland and even somali weyn is the lack of management , why else did a large amount of "somalilanders" suffer from a famine in a country with one of the most arable lands throughout Somalia.

Finally, your statement that Somaliland wont turn into south sudan is inherently flawed. It has all the makings of a failed state:
Widespread corruption , lack of management , tribal tensions and old wounds. All it takes is one Daarod in the Maakhir or Khaatumo region to be killed and the region will flare into a wide spread rebellion. Funnily enough Somaliland government will simply do what Siaad did and bomb the areas into submission.

In conclusions, this Somaliland dream wont happen. If anything Somaliland will get worse , there is a corrupt inner circle within Somaliland trying to reap the greatest benefits it can from the Northerners. Unfortunately all they have to do is shout Qabil and the Isaaq people will happily follow them to the slaughter house.

But there has been no slaughterhouse. Since the 90s it has been a place where people of any tribe can live and work. I'd say the press is pretty free, and the 3 party system creates real competition. The situation in the east is a difficulty, and I think the last people want is to replicate a version of what happened to us; but if you look at the politics of the country you see all the minority tribes are bought of, and when it comes to complicated land issues and conflicts the government often takes the side of the minority or kicks the issue into the long grass.

Walaal, I wouldn't go so far as to say that we have strong institutions, but we have institutions. The problem of tribe is obvious, but it is a shared one, and I think it can only be helped not by delusional anti-tribalism, but by bringing it into the open; and in a way our system of party as effective tribal proxy kind of does that.

The famine is a crime of the government, and it is because there is no attention to the basic issues of drought prevention and food security. This can be done on a very low budget and it is a great shame on all who had responsibility for it. As an Issaq person I do not favour Somaliland because I think my lot are any better or worse; I just think we should always try to be governed by the closest unit to us that is capable of exercising control over the territory, and there is real hope Somaliland can be that.

 

[Ras]

what are the long term possibilities if the status quo continues as villa Somalia gets stronger and better able to govern it's existing territories?

Then not only do you lose the chance of independence but you also have to go along with rules negotiated without Somaliland.

In essence it'll be an unconditional surrender if it gets to that unless you join in the federal discussions today... even as just an observer.

 

[Adam Isaaq]

Sxb you forgot that we are already INDEPENDENT since 1991!

You meant what the south will lose with sland recognized whole wide, if so, i think the number one reason they keep claiming us is the UNION sland created with the south and their pipe dream of soomaliweyn!

they think Sland getting ictiraaf is big failure to their central gov and will open pandora box of secessionism in their federal states. which is illogical because Sland was a country before and has every right to revoke their union. also theres legal questions of the legitimacy of the 1960 union with the south!

Also their percieved threat of xabashi proxy war threat from sland might be another reason imo.

at the end of the day recognition or without, Sland will stay DE FACTO INDEPENDENT!

I'm with you brother, but I'm trying to actually see what the other side think as I am genuinely interested. I think that there will have to be a major convention at some point, and it seems that everyone is talking past one another. I think they would be surprised how good an internationally recognised Somaliland would be for them.

 

[Von]

I know what you mean about short term gains. I speak with farmers and so many are reluctant to grow trees that fruit after 6/7/8 years. It seems like an eternity to them. Same reason why we don't grow our own khat on a mass scale, which is perhaps the biggest financial problem in the country. Good news is, if we all go back and work we will all become rich, and that counts for the North & the South.

sadly i also have first-hand experience, we can't fault them they lack basic education, political, financial and social understanding but their best asset is the diaspora

 

[Adam Isaaq]

sadly i also have first-hand experience, we can't fault them they lack basic education, political, financial and social understanding but their best asset is the diaspora

I'm with you completely, but as a diaspora we have to make an alliance with the local specialists. There are people there, more than I thought before I started going back. We also have to be students of the past and our culture. I always get embarrased when I guy goes back with "I studied at XXX, make me a minister". Just sitting in a room thousands of miles away doesn't mean you know how to get from A to B. I work in the gulf and it makes me sad when you see our people are so smart mashallah and we just can't get it together on the simple things.