How likely is it that Al Shabaab takes over Somalia

[Gaandheri]

Qatar, and other countries have supposedly told FGS negotiate with AS but ATMIS leaves August 2025 ironically the same time NATO pulled out of Afghanistan.

INTELLIGENCE FILES: AMNIYAAT – INSIDE AL SHABAAB’S SPY AND ASSASSINATION UNIT

PART I: REIGN OF TERROR HUNTER KILLER UNIT FDD’s Long War Journal 2021 A video released by Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, details one of the jihadist group’s hit squads. The unit, dubbe…

theafricancriminologyjournal.wordpress.com

Damn what happened to this Hawiye brother?

 

[killerxsmoke]

ATMIS leaves August 2025 ironically the same time NATO pulled out of Afghanistan.
Damn what happened to this Hawiye brother?
View attachment 304103

0%

 

[Burqad]

Don’t compare AS to the taliban, they aren’t comparable in any way lol.

 

[Hilmaam]

0%

what about chances ATMIS leaves in 2025?

 

[Lahaine]

0% alkebab is not as organized as the Taliban. Secondly they don't have population support like the Taliban did the Taliban had the support of the pashtun alkebab is hated by every clan in somalia.

 

[johnsepei5]

Not very likely
there is not a family in south somalia who has not lost a family member or someone they know to al shabab attacks,there is alot of built up anger
they dont have the same support or power like taliban had
al shabab screwed up by attacking their own people where as taliban they use to attack only American and foreign bases,HSM is piece of shit but they can tolerate him

 

[Step a side]

Qatar, and other countries have supposedly told FGS negotiate with AS but ATMIS leaves August 2025 ironically the same time NATO pulled out of Afghanistan.

INTELLIGENCE FILES: AMNIYAAT – INSIDE AL SHABAAB’S SPY AND ASSASSINATION UNIT

PART I: REIGN OF TERROR HUNTER KILLER UNIT FDD’s Long War Journal 2021 A video released by Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, details one of the jihadist group’s hit squads. The unit, dubbe…

theafricancriminologyjournal.wordpress.com

Damn what happened to this Hawiye brother?
View attachment 304103

Don’t disrespect the Taliban like that. Al Shabaab is equal to LGBT

 

[Bazed]

Unlikely. Everyone seems to have this idea that we'll fall like Afghanistan. It won't happen since AS doesn't have support from a major clan like the Taliban, their power comes from sub clans and marginalized folk. Furthermore they hold dusty villages for ransom, stealing from the nomads and common people alike. It would be easy to undermine their power base by providing better opportunities to minorities and relaxing taxation of goods traveling through government checkpoints.

They're clinging onto power barley and as time goes by the walls close in around them.

 

[SPMLegend]

AS can easily be defeated by a real Government. The Somali Regime is highly incompetent and the foreigners don’t want Somalia to prosper.

 

[Bazed]

Qatar, and other countries have supposedly told FGS negotiate with AS but ATMIS leaves August 2025 ironically the same time NATO pulled out of Afghanistan.

INTELLIGENCE FILES: AMNIYAAT – INSIDE AL SHABAAB’S SPY AND ASSASSINATION UNIT

PART I: REIGN OF TERROR HUNTER KILLER UNIT FDD’s Long War Journal 2021 A video released by Shabaab, al Qaeda’s branch in East Africa, details one of the jihadist group’s hit squads. The unit, dubbe…

theafricancriminologyjournal.wordpress.com

Damn what happened to this Hawiye brother?
View attachment 304103

That somalinews guy use to be pro government but now is AS fan boy along with those fake news accounts that supposedly give updates on AS victories. They think if AS wins we'll live in a perfect world but reality shows we'll end up like Afghanistan. No food, no water, humanitarian crisis and economic future.

All these AS fanboys live in the west and speak like we live in the 11th century. Talking about crusaders when it's purely business that drives nations today. They will never experience the fallout of what they wish for and are too cowardly to fight for it.

 

[cow]

Not very likely
there is not a family in south somalia who has not lost a family member or someone they know to al shabab attacks,there is alot of built up anger
they dont have the same support or power like taliban had
al shabab screwed up by attacking their own people where as taliban they use to attack only American and foreign bases,HSM is piece of shit but they can tolerate him

No one actually believes the "bunker government" is a real government. People mostly specially in hutu lands rather have al shabaab.

Because with al shabaab you have one thug. With the amisom "bunker government" you have 500 thugs.

For example al shabaab areas they control would only take money from a car once, then you are given a ticket if another al shabaab stops you. You say you already paid and show ticket.

While none al shabaab areas have dozens of checkpoints and each checkpoint you pay bribe money.

So no one actually recognises the "bunker government" as a government. Name me one of the key fundamentals which make a government a government where this "bunker government" even meets?

 

[mohamedismail]

If Amisom were to leave I believe many cities within Somalia would fall to AS. E.g Kismaayo, Garbahaarey, Baidoa, Xuddur and even Xamar. The country doesn't have the weapons and troops to defend those cities from Shabaab without Amisom.

But how long would AS hold those cities untill the local population of civillians picked up arms and fought back. It wouldnt be long. We have seen what Xawaadle done in hiiraan and every clan is capable of doing the same.

I believe the only way we can defeat AS is through Macawiisley and making clans liberate their own territories. If we can get every clan to uprise and rebel AS would be cleaned out of southern Somalia in a matter of days.

Another possibility is overtime building the Somali army and waiting for the arms embargo to be lifted so we can have access to superior weaponry to AS and defeat them in that waym

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The likelihood that Alshabab takes over Somalia is high enough that I worry about it constantly.
If I had to place a % on it, I would say it is around 25%.

Alshabab is more powerful than the Maxaakim (ICU) were in 2006. They have better organization, and are more ideologically united. Alshabab has one leader, consolidated chain of command, and an internal police force to crackdown on dissent within the organization.

If Amisom leave, Alshabab would begin quickly taking large swathes of rural areas currrently outside of its control with populations that support it. It would have taken all of Koonfur Galbeed in less than a week, and would be shelling Kismayo the next week. Alshabab will then take Hiirshabelle and then begin surrounding Mogadishu.

The only places where Alshabab would face strong resistance would be Gedo and Galmudug. If Mogadishu falls, so will Gedo and Galmudug and Alshabab would be Galkacyo. Alshabab would then confront Puntland with the full resources of southern Somalia.

I don't know who wins a war between Harti and Alshabab, especially considering how far away Bosaso is from Galkacyo, but it is bound to be the bloodiest battle ever fought inside Somalia's borders. Casualties easily in the tens of thousands. Puntland would be the underdog in this fight by a good margin.

Too many people are underestimating the military capacity of these khawarij. There is a good reason why Hawiye is struggling against them, they are quite strong relative to any Somali militia.

 

[Kizaru]

Coward and primitive scum like them have 0 chance. Even if they take the capital whos going to follow them? They don't have any support north or even south. Too much qabylaad for these people to destroy

 

[Pastoralist]

OP
Bold of you to assume they haven’t already.

These guys are not a formal army so stop treating it as such. They win battles through shirkool from people within the government. I’m not exaggerating when I say it’s the government and AS working together to kill SNA because they share the same interests at times. What interests? you might ask. Well one being the withdrawal of ATMIS which was supposed to take place this year. One prerequisite for them to leave was for SNA to have enough strength. Once HSM gain presidency what happens? Soldiers weapons go missing en masse, Soldiers no longer paid so they have less incentive to fight, and they start being setup by their own government with even the speaker or parliament Adan madobe saying the killing of these soldiers reeks of foul play. The west wants to keep Atmis in Somalia so they couldn’t have SNA defeating them AS. We have a puppet leader so today we face this situation.

 

[Gaandheri]

The likelihood that Alshabab takes over Somalia is high enough that I worry about it constantly.
If I had to place a % on it, I would say it is around 25%.

Alshabab is more powerful than the Maxaakim (ICU) were in 2006. They have better organization, and are more ideologically united. Alshabab has one leader, consolidated chain of command, and an internal police force to crackdown on dissent within the organization.

If Amisom leave, Alshabab would begin quickly taking large swathes of rural areas currrently outside of its control with populations that support it. It would have taken all of Koonfur Galbeed in less than a week, and would be shelling Kismayo the next week. Alshabab will then take Hiirshabelle and then begin surrounding Mogadishu.

The only places where Alshabab would face strong resistance would be Gedo and Galmudug. If Mogadishu falls, so will Gedo and Galmudug and Alshabab would be Galkacyo. Alshabab would then confront Puntland with the full resources of southern Somalia.

I don't know who wins a war between Harti and Alshabab, especially considering how far away Bosaso is from Galkacyo, but it is bound to be the bloodiest battle ever fought inside Somalia's borders. Casualties easily in the tens of thousands. Puntland would be the underdog in this fight by a good margin.

Too many people are underestimating the military capacity of these khawarij. There is a good reason why Hawiye is struggling against them, they are quite strong relative to any Somali militia.

Al Shabaab also have their own intelligence agency and people who work for them in the government or ordinary civilians too interesting analysis but I think even if Al Shabaab overrun the south they won’t do the same to SL and PL these two states geography helps them tuff terrain and mountains.

Will ISIS and Al Shabaab battle it out for control of Somalia? Most of Al Shabaab foot soldiers and suicide bombers are now Bantus the Somalis dominate the leadership. Ironically enough every clan is represented somehow in Al Shabaab so the qabyaalad card can’t be used against them.

 

[GemState]

The likelihood that Alshabab takes over Somalia is high enough that I worry about it constantly.
If I had to place a % on it, I would say it is around 25%.

Alshabab is more powerful than the Maxaakim (ICU) were in 2006. They have better organization, and are more ideologically united. Alshabab has one leader, consolidated chain of command, and an internal police force to crackdown on dissent within the organization.

If Amisom leave, Alshabab would begin quickly taking large swathes of rural areas currrently outside of its control with populations that support it. It would have taken all of Koonfur Galbeed in less than a week, and would be shelling Kismayo the next week. Alshabab will then take Hiirshabelle and then begin surrounding Mogadishu.

The only places where Alshabab would face strong resistance would be Gedo and Galmudug. If Mogadishu falls, so will Gedo and Galmudug and Alshabab would be Galkacyo. Alshabab would then confront Puntland with the full resources of southern Somalia.

I don't know who wins a war between Harti and Alshabab, especially considering how far away Bosaso is from Galkacyo, but it is bound to be the bloodiest battle ever fought inside Somalia's borders. Casualties easily in the tens of thousands. Puntland would be the underdog in this fight by a good margin.

Too many people are underestimating the military capacity of these khawarij. There is a good reason why Hawiye is struggling against them, they are quite strong relative to any Somali militia.

No. It's a lot higher than 25%. It's closer to 80%. The idea Somalia will wage a successful counterinsurgency like Sri Lanka did against the Tamil Tigers or Colombia with FARC is magical thinking, if Ceel Buur isn't secured after a year what chance does Jilib or KGS have of being liberated?

At some point the entire apparatus propping up Somalia will gas out, this has been Shabab's whole strategy since they lost Xamar in 2011 and it is not the wrong assumption.

Best case scenario is a less violent version of the status quo, the worst case is Kenya and Ethiopia expanding buffer zones like in Northern Syria with a new TFG in a hotel abroad.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

No. It's a lot higher than 25%. It's closer to 80%. The idea Somalia will wage a successful counterinsurgency like Sri Lanka did against the Tamil Tigers or Colombia with FARC is magical thinking, if Ceel Buur isn't secured after a year what chance does Jilib or KGS have of being liberated?

At some point the entire apparatus propping up Somalia will gas out, this has been Shabab's whole strategy since they lost Xamar in 2011 and it is not the wrong assumption.

Best case scenario is a less violent version of the status quo, the worst case is Kenya and Ethiopia expanding buffer zones like in Northern Syria with a new TFG in a hotel abroad.

I am in full agreement with you that if it is just Somalis vs Alshabab, the likliehood of Alshabab winning is closer to 80% than to 25%. Most Somalis greatly underestimate how powerful Alshabab is in comparison with other Somali forces.

The reason I have it at 25% is that I don’t think Kenya and Ethiopia will allow for the complete collapse of the FGS. They can both easily afford to place 15,000 troops in the way of Alshabab and keep the FGS going. I am assuming that the world won’t allow a UN member state to be ruled by the local Al Qaeda franchise.

 

[Burqad]

I am in full agreement with you that if it is just Somalis vs Alshabab, the likliehood of Alshabab winning is closer to 80% than to 25%. Most Somalis greatly underestimate how powerful Alshabab is in comparison with other Somali forces.

The reason I have it at 25% is that I don’t think Kenya and Ethiopia will allow for the complete collapse of the FGS. They can both easily afford to place 15,000 troops in the way of Alshabab and keep the FGS going. I am assuming that the world won’t allow a UN member state to be ruled by the local Al Qaeda franchise.

Amisom isn’t a long term solution both because it requires a rapidly bankrupting Europe that is focused on stuff like Ukraine to pay the fees, as well as it slowly collapsing the legitimacy of the Somali state.

Counterinsurgency is wholly political, and only a nationalist Somali state can crush AS, something that neither Kenya or Ethiopia want to see

 

[Isinimo]

0% because atmis will never leave.