How likely is it that Al Shabaab takes over Somalia

[cow]

I am in full agreement with you that if it is just Somalis vs Alshabab, the likliehood of Alshabab winning is closer to 80% than to 25%. Most Somalis greatly underestimate how powerful Alshabab is in comparison with other Somali forces.

The reason I have it at 25% is that I don’t think Kenya and Ethiopia will allow for the complete collapse of the FGS. They can both easily afford to place 15,000 troops in the way of Alshabab and keep the FGS going. I am assuming that the world won’t allow a UN member state to be ruled by the local Al Qaeda franchise.

Amisom will stay as long as the west pays its salary. Kenya won't be able to afford to stay in somalia if amisom wast the leave and neither would ethiopia.

So you hoping kenya forever to save your uncle madoobe in kismaayo. Let me break it to you the moment they leave, kismaayo will fall and most likely to Al shabaab. That's because "jubbaland" has not been build from the ground up it was build as a buffer zone by ethiopia and specially kenya. Jubbaland does not represent the people of jubbaland and same argument can be said for the bunker government in xamar.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Amisom will stay as long as the west pays its salary. Kenya won't be able to afford to stay in somalia if amisom wast the leave and neither would ethiopia.

So you hoping kenya forever to save your uncle madoobe in kismaayo. Let me break it to you the moment they leave, kismaayo will fall and most likely to Al shabaab. That's because "jubbaland" has not been build from the ground up it was build as a buffer zone by ethiopia and specially kenya. Jubbaland does not represent the people of jubbaland and same argument can be said for the bunker government in xamar.

Kenya and Ethiopia can easily afford to have 15,000 troops in Somalia to replace the current ATMIS contingent. Their combined GDP is now roughly equial to Sweden. This is not 2006. Total cost of ATMIS is ~ $150 million.

Kismayo is only second to Muqdisho in value to the international community (mostly United States). They really care about it not falling to Alshabab.

Even if EU funding for Amisom were to go away, the US would likely give aid to Ethiopia and Kenya to stabilize Somalia or at the very least keep Alshabab outside Muqdisho and Kismayo.

Ahmed Madoobe, a political failure, has remained in place in part due to the unwillingness of Marehan politicians to accept that Kismayo is not and will never be a Marehan city. You have no place in Lower Juba.

 

[cow]

Kenya and Ethiopia can easily afford to have 15,000 troops in Somalia to replace the current ATMIS contingent. Their combined GDP is now roughly equial to Sweden. This is not 2006. Total cost of ATMIS is ~ $150 million.

Kismayo is only second to Muqdisho in value to the international community (mostly United States). They really care about it not falling to Alshabab.

Even if EU funding for Amisom were to go away, the US would likely give aid to Ethiopia and Kenya to stabilize Somalia or at the very least keep Alshabab outside Muqdisho and Kismayo.

Ahmed Madoobe, a political failure, has remained in place in part due to the unwillingness of Marehan politicians to accept that Kismayo is not and will never be a Marehan city. You have no place in Lower Juba.

This isn't garowe sxb. Kismaayo is mine today by numbers and will be tomorrow by strength.

Madoobe remains in kismaayo because of kenya/ xalane mafia paying their salaries. And international community doesn't care about kismaayo. It is ngo/Kenya to paints a picture about kismaayo.

Kenya/ethiopia all will leave. Kenya what have they achieved other then have madoobe be their puppet?

In 2011 Kenya had a lot of goals of those goals what did they actually achieve? So no I Don't think Kenya will stay.

Ethiopia is more interested in a red sea port and will focus on somaliland. Jubbaland sooner or later will go back to pre amisom days and I welcome it.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

This isn't garowe sxb. Kismaayo is mine today by numbers and will be tomorrow by strength.

Madoobe remains in kismaayo because of kenya/ xalane mafia paying their salaries. And international community doesn't care about kismaayo. It is ngo/Kenya to paints a picture about kismaayo.

Kenya/ethiopia all will leave. Kenya what have they achieved other then have madoobe be their puppet?

In 2011 Kenya had a lot of goals of those goals what did they actually achieve? So no I Don't think Kenya will stay.

Ethiopia is more interested in a red sea port and will focus on somaliland. Jubbaland sooner or later will go back to pre amisom days and I welcome it.

Many Ogaden have ubanized in Kismayo over the past 11 years. They are now the single largest clan. And if you compare Kablalax and Sade, Kablalax is the larger clan by some margin and is probably above 50% of the population at this point.

kismayo’s demographics have shifted decisively against Marehan post 2012. Most Marehan are urbanizing in places like Beled Xaawo rather than Kismayo. This is better for everyone.

 

[cow]

Many Ogaden have ubanized in Kismayo over the past 11 years. They are now the single largest clan. And if you compare Kablalax and Sade, Kablalax is the larger clan by some margin and is probably above 50% of the population at this point.

kismayo’s demographics have shifted decisively against Marehan post 2012. Most Marehan are urbanizing in places like Beled Xaawo rather than Kismayo. This is better for everyone.

Lol @this is better for everyone. I go to kismaayo every few years I have family members that live there that is speak to everyday.

One thing you are correct is ogadeen population increased in the beginning, but they have been leaving in droves again.

What you don't know is kismaayo economic situation is very dire majority of the caaghdeers returned back to kenya/ ethiopia because of that. Those that stayed are on the wfo food cards.

And there is no kab iyo lax in kismaayo you are hiding behind caaghdeers but they see your treacherous ways. You support amisom for very simple reason that kismaayo there will be a complete cleansing once they leave and that is a fact.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Lol @this is better for everyone. I go to kismaayo every few years I have family members that live there that is speak to everyday.

One thing you are correct is ogadeen population increased in the beginning, but they have been leaving in droves again.

What you don't know is kismaayo economic situation is very dire majority of the caaghdeers returned back to kenya/ ethiopia because of that. Those that stayed are on the wfo food cards.

And there is no kab iyo lax in kismaayo you are hiding behind caaghdeers but they see your treacherous ways. You support amisom for very simple reason that kismaayo there will be a complete cleansing once they leave and that is a fact.

Keep crying. Kab iyo Lax is not going anywhere.
The current minister of finance of Jubaland is my subsubclan.
Kab iyo Lax is serving both sides very well.

Walalaha Galgaduud are the ones facing long term extinction.
Another decade and Marehan may have no real estate left in Kismayo.
Lugaha ayaa meesha lagu fidsaday.

You are a welcome guest in Kismayo as long as you know your place.

 

[GemState]

I am in full agreement with you that if it is just Somalis vs Alshabab, the likliehood of Alshabab winning is closer to 80% than to 25%. Most Somalis greatly underestimate how powerful Alshabab is in comparison with other Somali forces.

The reason I have it at 25% is that I don’t think Kenya and Ethiopia will allow for the complete collapse of the FGS. They can both easily afford to place 15,000 troops in the way of Alshabab and keep the FGS going. I am assuming that the world won’t allow a UN member state to be ruled by the local Al Qaeda franchise.

Probably. There are some 30m Somalis with a TFR of 7 inhabiting a contagious landmass. Alshabab winning this war could snowball into something really crazy in a few decades considering how fragile Ethiopia has become. The way Somalia's population pyramid is and it's poor level of development means there is an endless number of potential recruits.

The region could really go through Bolshevik level of carnage in the next few decades, hopefully it doesn't get to that.

 

[cow]

Keep crying. Kab iyo Lax is not going anywhere.
The current minister of finance of Jubaland is my subsubclan.
Kab iyo Lax is serving both sides very well.

Walalaha Galgaduud are the ones facing long term extinction.
Another decade and Marehan may have no real estate left in Kismayo.
Lugaha ayaa meesha lagu fidsaday.

You are a welcome guest in Kismayo as long as you know your place.

Fantasy, the only reason why you are claiming Kismayo under kab iyo lax is because I exposed how laangaab ogadeen are inside somalia.

Kismayo whether you like it or not atleast minimum 50 percent is marehan and that is a very Conservative number.

2nd biggest clan is bantu and the past 10 years their numbers have gone through the roof since they have been leaving gosha in droves.

Your mj clan lives in tiny section less then 300 households. So day dreaming about kismaayo or jubbaland when you are a foreigner from puntland lol. I would worry about how deni is going to destroy it and not lust after someone else's land.

You yourself know if amisom leaves somalia ogadeen will go with them. Blackie will be chased out within a week.

 

[mohamedismail]

@Kabtaanka Why you acting like Gaaljecel Samow don't also make up a huge portion of the Khawaarij. Rx dont even have leadership's positions unlike your clan.