How powerful is alshabab?

[zaffron]

We have the means to wipe Al-Shaytan terrorists out if we work together and have goals. We should never negotiate with terrorists.

America said the same thing then they negotiated with taliban after they were beaten and none of their demands were met

 

[GemState]

There are 2 options with dealing with Shabaab;

The first approach is to just bring them to the table and try to negotiate a ceasefire, with Shabaab becoming somewhat similar to the Muslim Brotherhood overtime, with them having strong links to politicians and having a military wing.

The second approach is similar to what Alvaro Uribe did in Colombia against the communist militia FARC, which is the Somali government using a massive amount of violence in crackdowns against Shabaab and anyone affiliated with them. This would cause for thousands and thousands of people to die, with a lot of them being innocent. But the goal is just to cull their numbers no matter what until they don't pose a threat.

 

[reer]

There are 2 options with dealing with Shabaab;

The first approach is to just bring them to the table and try to negotiate a ceasefire, with Shabaab becoming somewhat similar to the Muslim Brotherhood overtime, with them having strong links to politicians and having a military wing.

The second approach is similar to what Alvaro Uribe did in Colombia against the communist militia FARC, which is the Somali government using a massive amount of violence in crackdowns against Shabaab and anyone affiliated with them. This would cause for thousands and thousands of people to die, with a lot of them being innocent. But the goal is just to cull their numbers no matter what until they don't pose a threat.

afghanistan is mountainous landlocked and sandwiched between two spheres of influence. somalia is flat terrain and anarchistic which makes seizing swathes of land like maxkamadaha a piece of cake. a legitimate fear people will start to have is them outliving amisom. the government like the afghan government will be forced to practically legitimize them as a political entity.
now we have a race to avoid this.

 

[GemState]

afghanistan is landlocked sandwiched mountainous and between two spheres of influence. somalia is flat terrain and anarchistic which makes seizing swathes of land like maxkamadaha a piece of cake. a legitimate fear people will start to have is them outliving amisom.
now we have a race.

The best case scenario I can see would be the SNA making enough gains against Shabaab in 3-4 years and manage to get enough defections, so when we do negotiate we do it from a position of strength where we can get them to essentially disband. I do think it's inevitable they'll play a role in politics in the future though

 

[reer]

The best case scenario I can see would be the SNA making enough gains against Shabaab in 3-4 years and manage to get enough defections, so when we do negotiate we do it from a position of strength where we can get them to essentially disband. I do think it's inevitable they'll play a role in politics in the future though

2 decades since invasion. the afghan government is weak and the ciidamada qaranka waa laga tashadaa. the taliban can and most likely will sieze most of the country like they did in the 90s.

strikingly similar to the above the south is in more disarray. maamul goboleeds and the federal government are dependent on amisom and at time do not get along which makes it easier for a single entity to defeat multiple bickering entities. deja vu. we have sna + maamul troops. an army divided along political ideologies and clan lines.
you are right they will play a role in future politics. and if they outlive amisom STILL with a sizable militia swathes of konfuria could fall. this is why there is a race that has started or is starting. outlive amisom + multiple opposing presidents = 2006/8 mar kale. back to khartoum. or doha instead.