Given the historical context and ongoing geopolitical dynamics, it seems unlikely that the West will allow Somalia to experience true and lasting peace, at least not in the near future. Several factors suggest that the interests of Western powers are often in conflict with the goal of full sovereignty and long-term stability for Somalia.
In the end, the peace and sovereignty of Somalia are secondary to Western geopolitical and economic interests, meaning true peace in the country is unlikely without a fundamental shift in the priorities of the international community, particularly the West.
How bleak
1. Geopolitical Interests
Somalia's strategic location in the Horn of Africa makes it a key player in regional and global security. Western powers, particularly the U.S., have used Somalia as a battleground in the fight against terrorism, especially with groups like Al-Shabaab. The global war on terror and counterterrorism measures often overshadow efforts to build long-term peace in Somalia.- Military presence: The U.S. military, along with Western allies, has maintained a presence in Somalia, ostensibly to combat terrorism. However, these interventions can create long-term instability, as they sometimes fuel resentment and lead to further radicalization. These forces often act without regard to local governance structures, further complicating the peace process.
2. Economic Interests
Western nations have economic interests in Somalia, particularly in terms of oil and trade routes. Somalia’s coastline is strategically located along important shipping lanes, and any stability in the country could lead to economic development that benefits local populations but may also reduce Western control over natural resources and trade routes.- Influence over natural resources: If Somalia were to become more stable and develop its own economy, Western powers may lose influence over access to Somalia’s resources, especially oil. Thus, the West may prefer to maintain a certain level of instability to keep these resources under control.
3. Divide and Rule: Support for Weak Governments
As you pointed out, Western powers have historically supported divided factions and weak governments in Somalia. Supporting weak governments or puppet regimes ensures that the country remains fragmented and unable to challenge Western power.- Proxy wars: The support of rival factions or militias serves the purpose of keeping Somalia from achieving true unity. This fragmentation keeps Somali leaders dependent on external support, thus ensuring that the West maintains a foothold in the country.
4. The Rise of New Powers
In recent years, China and other regional powers have also started showing more interest in Somalia, particularly in terms of infrastructure development and economic investments. The West may fear that a stable, independent Somalia could become less dependent on Western aid and more open to alternative alliances, especially with non-Western powers.- China’s influence in Africa is growing, and the West may not want Somalia to become a strategic partner for China or other powers that could challenge Western dominance in the region.
5. The Ongoing Cycle of Conflict
Even if Somali factions or peace initiatives make strides toward stability, the persistent nature of inter-clan violence, terrorism, and foreign meddling creates a cycle that is difficult to break. Western nations often frame the issue of peacein terms of counterterrorism or security measures, rather than addressing the root causes of conflict, like poverty, corruption, and lack of governance.Conclusion: Peace is Not a Priority for the West
While there are certainly efforts by international organizations, humanitarian groups, and Somali leaders to work toward peace, the reality is that Western nations have a vested interest in a fragmented, unstable Somalia. Their actions often prevent true peace from taking root, either through military intervention, economic exploitation, or support for governments that serve Western interests rather than the people of Somalia.In the end, the peace and sovereignty of Somalia are secondary to Western geopolitical and economic interests, meaning true peace in the country is unlikely without a fundamental shift in the priorities of the international community, particularly the West.
How bleak
