Imagine if we won the Ogaden war (Reddit topic)

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Do you think Somalia still collapses or would we all be chilling in xamar right now ?

 

[Ashraf]

We’ve still got 2 more wars to fight after, but siads victory would embolden us to invade the NFD next, this would put us at great odds with the US and the UK who are eager to protect their interests in Kenya.( both had military bases at this time) We’d most likely still be an ally of the soviets and the economy would continue to grow with the continuation of socialist policies. Soviet reluctance to support us would most likely manifest, as they’re unwilling to be bogged down in yet another war that would further villainise them on the continent. We’d have to rebuild our arsenal. Furthermore the French fearing for Djibouti may seek to provide additional military aid to Kenya as well as the US and UK. Moreover the anxiety would make the Kenyans a lot more eager to establish the East African federation (EAF), which would come with a joint defence clause. We’d most likely repeat our strategy in the Ogaden, fund rebel groups SSLF(southern Somali liberation front) to put pressure on the Kenyan government to allow either peaceful secession or outright war. However this most likely wouldn’t have happened, we’d triumphed in the Ogaden due to soviet support however the political climate of the 80s brought great change to soviet and American policy. if we were to invade the NFD and Djibouti we’d have to do it before Mikhail Gorbachev becomes president in 1985 and implements pretroishka, and also before Ronald Reagan becomes president in 1981. This gives us a timeline of 2-3 years after the Ogaden war to rebuild our arsenal, fix the economy and capture the NFD and Djibouti. A Herculean task even during presidents carters docile era he would still be eager to make sure Kenya has the capacity to defend itself. Domestically Siad Barres rule would be cemented, there would most likely be no coups or rebellions due to massive public support. Our economy wouldn’t have collapsed, we wouldn’t have lost the soviet advisors who held a great deal of influence, the military wouldn’t have been purged either. We wouldn’t have to contend with an Ethiopian threat which was capable of funding rebel groups either. We’d dominate the horn and push for the balkanisation of Ethiopia, (Eritrean independence). But the question is if we were able to obtain the nfd and Djibouti. Or if we only managed to capture Ogaden? Those are two very different scenarios which would lead to very different outcomes

 

[The truth seeker]

Here is a good video that summarizes the actual events

 

[Espaa_]

your forgetting another war with oromia to take back those somali lands. (If jaarso and karanle havent already been oromized). However its kind of a good thing not to take back those lands in a way. We have our very own somali buffer zone between us and the oromo hordes. On top of that we blocked their access to the sea.

Eritrea/djibouti on the other hand have trouble on their border with the tigray war and djibouti with its inland Afar situation.

we have managed to dodge that problem thankfully.

lets just focus on making our country functional again.

 

[kamek]

We’ve still got 2 more wars to fight after, but siads victory would embolden us to invade the NFD next, this would put us at great odds with the US and the UK who are eager to protect their interests in Kenya.( both had military bases at this time) We’d most likely still be an ally of the soviets and the economy would continue to grow with the continuation of socialist policies. Soviet reluctance to support us would most likely manifest, as they’re unwilling to be bogged down in yet another war that would further villainise them on the continent. We’d have to rebuild our arsenal. Furthermore the French fearing for Djibouti may seek to provide additional military aid to Kenya as well as the US and UK. Moreover the anxiety would make the Kenyans a lot more eager to establish the East African federation (EAF), which would come with a joint defence clause. We’d most likely repeat our strategy in the Ogaden, fund rebel groups SSLF(southern Somali liberation front) to put pressure on the Kenyan government to allow either peaceful secession or outright war. However this most likely wouldn’t have happened, we’d triumphed in the Ogaden due to soviet support however the political climate of the 80s brought great change to soviet and American policy. if we were to invade the NFD and Djibouti we’d have to do it before Mikhail Gorbachev becomes president in 1985 and implements pretroishka, and also before Ronald Reagan becomes president in 1981. This gives us a timeline of 2-3 years after the Ogaden war to rebuild our arsenal, fix the economy and capture the NFD and Djibouti. A Herculean task even during presidents carters docile era he would still be eager to make sure Kenya has the capacity to defend itself. Domestically Siad Barres rule would be cemented, there would most likely be no coups or rebellions due to massive public support. Our economy wouldn’t have collapsed, we wouldn’t have lost the soviet advisors who held a great deal of influence, the military wouldn’t have been purged either. We wouldn’t have to contend with an Ethiopian threat which was capable of funding rebel groups either. We’d dominate the horn and push for the balkanisation of Ethiopia, (Eritrean independence). But the question is if we were able to obtain the nfd and Djibouti. Or if we only managed to capture Ogaden? Those are two very different scenarios which would lead to very different outcomes

Sxb, please try breaking your writing up into paragraphs.

 

[SadikBoom]

your forgetting another war with oromia to take back those somali lands. (If jaarso and karanle havent already been oromized). However its kind of a good thing not to take back those lands in a way. We have our very own somali buffer zone between us and the oromo hordes. On top of that we blocked their access to the sea.

Eritrea/djibouti on the other hand have trouble on their border with the tigray war and djibouti with its inland Afar situation.

we have managed to dodge that problem thankfully.

lets just focus on making our country functional again.

We would have invaded past Hararghe into Arusi and Bale i bet, those were considered Somali territories.

 

[livinlavish]

your forgetting another war with oromia to take back those somali lands. (If jaarso and karanle havent already been oromized). However its kind of a good thing not to take back those lands in a way. We have our very own somali buffer zone between us and the oromo hordes. On top of that we blocked their access to the sea.

Eritrea/djibouti on the other hand have trouble on their border with the tigray war and djibouti with its inland Afar situation.

we have managed to dodge that problem thankfully.

lets just focus on making our country functional again.

Karanle have been oromoized? What have I missed. Maybe only a few villages have been assimilated but I doubt the clan as a whole have been oromoized I seen videos of them repping somalinimo but unfortunately the same can't be said for jaarso

 

[Burqad]

We’ve still got 2 more wars to fight after, but siads victory would embolden us to invade the NFD next, this would put us at great odds with the US and the UK who are eager to protect their interests in Kenya.( both had military bases at this time) We’d most likely still be an ally of the soviets and the economy would continue to grow with the continuation of socialist policies. Soviet reluctance to support us would most likely manifest, as they’re unwilling to be bogged down in yet another war that would further villainise them on the continent. We’d have to rebuild our arsenal. Furthermore the French fearing for Djibouti may seek to provide additional military aid to Kenya as well as the US and UK. Moreover the anxiety would make the Kenyans a lot more eager to establish the East African federation (EAF), which would come with a joint defence clause. We’d most likely repeat our strategy in the Ogaden, fund rebel groups SSLF(southern Somali liberation front) to put pressure on the Kenyan government to allow either peaceful secession or outright war. However this most likely wouldn’t have happened, we’d triumphed in the Ogaden due to soviet support however the political climate of the 80s brought great change to soviet and American policy. if we were to invade the NFD and Djibouti we’d have to do it before Mikhail Gorbachev becomes president in 1985 and implements pretroishka, and also before Ronald Reagan becomes president in 1981. This gives us a timeline of 2-3 years after the Ogaden war to rebuild our arsenal, fix the economy and capture the NFD and Djibouti. A Herculean task even during presidents carters docile era he would still be eager to make sure Kenya has the capacity to defend itself. Domestically Siad Barres rule would be cemented, there would most likely be no coups or rebellions due to massive public support. Our economy wouldn’t have collapsed, we wouldn’t have lost the soviet advisors who held a great deal of influence, the military wouldn’t have been purged either. We wouldn’t have to contend with an Ethiopian threat which was capable of funding rebel groups either. We’d dominate the horn and push for the balkanisation of Ethiopia, (Eritrean independence). But the question is if we were able to obtain the nfd and Djibouti. Or if we only managed to capture Ogaden? Those are two very different scenarios which would lead to very different outcomes

Somalia marched through NFD to liberate the Ogaden, look up the Rhamu incident. 1500 Somali soldiers chased off the entire Kenyan army, and the YamYams cried to their English master but to no avail.

 

[cunug3aad]

Siyaad bare would have more support and Somali lands would be reunited, that is if he decides to stop at ogaden instead of continuing through ethiopia which is more likely to happen,given how at that time jaale was getting a bit waalan wit the isaaq bombing them type thing , Even more western intervention would ensue until they manage to halt the somali forces cos they love their amharic christians , so loss of conflict is a canon event regardless if the ogaden was recaptured

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