In its third year of war, Yemen risks fragmentation

[Gilgamesh]

As the war in Yemen drags on, the country splitting along its pre-1990 borders is very likely. The southern movement(Hirak) has gained large influence in South Yemen as a result of the war. The non existent central government and military that use to keep them at bay is gone and they are heavily armed as a result of this power vacuum. They are supported by the UAE which has strong interests in the South. The UAE have invested billions so far military and economically to garner influence and they are in it for the long haul. The Saudi backed president Hadi is against secession but his voice doesn't carry much weight on the ground. Most of his forces are Hirak supporters and they are the ones on the ground in Aden and other parts of Southern Yemen supported by the Emirates.

He recently just fired two UAE backed figures, a Minister and the Governor of Aden in attempts at curbing their influence.

Yemen's internationally backed president has fired a Cabinet minister and the governor of the southern port city of Aden, two figures known to be close to the United Arab Emirates, a key member of a Saudi-led coalition fighting Shiite rebels in Yemen since 2015.

The firing late Thursday of Minister of State Hani Bin Braik and Aden Gov. Aidarous al-Zubaidi appears to be the latest chapter in a stand-off between President Abded Rabbo Mansour Hadi and the UAE.

Relations between Hadi and the UAE have been tense over allegations by the Yemeni president that the Emiratis are offering patronage to southern Yemeni politicians campaigning for secession as well as what he sees as UAE violations of his country's sovereignty.

Unlike Saudi Arabia, the UAE’s agenda has been clear in Yemen since the Arab military intervention, focusing on south Yemen as a future target for its interest in the country. The Emirati diplomacy succeeded in achieving this goal. On one hand, the Emirates played a major role in liberating southern territories and thus guaranteed its popularity amongst the citizens of the south. On the other, it provided relief efforts through the UAE Red Crescent as well as ensured financial support for the leaders of al-Hirak. The UAE’s position on the separatist struggle is evident in its media, voicing support for an independent South Yemen, which the Emirates sees as a project that could further its economic interests in the south in general and in Aden in particular as well as prove its presence as a rising regional power.

According to the observers, the standoff and odds between Saudi-backed Yemen President Hadi and UAE have just reached boiling point.

UAE-backed Governor of Aden Aidarous Zubaidi held an exception meeting with his team hours after Hadi's decree but no details have been revealed yet.

Suspected UAE fighter jets hovered early on Friday morning over Aden's airspace and sporadic clashes occurred in Aden. Citizens in Aden fear further escalations as a result of Hadi's presidential decree.

Hadi's decisions to remove UAE-loyal Aden governor created anger among leading secessionist leaders and supporters who called for anti-Hadi demonstrations in the country's southern regions.

http://www.economist.com/news/middl...o-country-rule-its-third-year-war-yemen-risks

https://warontherocks.com/2017/03/the-risks-of-forgetting-yemens-southern-secessionist-movement/

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/04/28/yemen-president-fires-minister-aden-governor.html

http://gulfhsp.org/en/posts/1760/

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-04/28/c_136244026.htm

 

[Gilgamesh]

An independent South Yemen is in Somaliland's interest. It would put a huge legitimacy hit on the
the played and worthless rhetoric the Arab League has been parroting for years about their opposition to
the break up of Arab league member states. Somaliland must continue to vie for UAE influence in the Horn and support their interests because it complements ours.

 

[government]

Yemen will be the next Somalia. Can't wait for Yemen land, houthie land etc etc:siilaanyolaugh:

 

[Apollo]

Still don't get why there are so few Yemenis in Europe.

George Soros should start ''NGOs'' in Yemen promoting migration to Germany and Sweden. :siilaanyolaugh:

 

[government]

Still don't get why there are so few Yemenis in Europe.

George Soros should start ''NGOs'' in Yemen promoting migration to Germany and Sweden. :siilaanyolaugh:

There are many in Somalia tho

 

[Gilgamesh]

Still don't get why there are so few Yemenis in Europe.

George Soros should start ''NGOs'' in Yemen promoting migration to Germany and Sweden. :siilaanyolaugh:

It's probably because it's difficult to get to Europe other than by air. They have to go
through Saudi Arabia which has strict borders. Then make their way through terrorist and
war infested Iraq and Syria to Turkey.

 

[Apollo]

It's probably because it's difficult to get to Europe other than by air. They have to go
through Saudi Arabia which has strict borders. Then make their way through terrorist and
war infested Iraq and Syria to Turkey.

Somalia is farther away, yet still thousands of new Somalis arrive in Europe every year.

I think it's mostly the network effect. Not enough Yemenis already in Europe to start a chain of migration.

Good ol' globalist George Soros should help them out. He also secretly funded groups that ''guided'' Syrians to Europe.

 

[TooMacaan]

I dislike the Houthis but I dislike the Saudis even more soooo...I guess I support the secession?. Either way, I feel so bad for the innocent civilians caught in between as collateral damage-- it's been a hell hole the past few years. It's a heart breaking thing to see your beloved country being torn apart by monster's greed for power, they have my sympathies.

 

[Gilgamesh]

Somalia is further away, yet still thousands of new Somalis arrive in Europe in every year.

I think it's mostly the network effect. Not enough Yemenis already in Europe to start a chain of migration.

George Soros should help them out. He also secretly funded groups that ''guided'' Syrians to Europe.

Somalia all go through countries with relatively weak borders, Ethiopia, Sudan,Libya but not
in full blown wars.

Networking is also likely another advantage. There are professional smugglers in Ethiopia, Sudan, Yemen, Egypt
who facilitate the smuggling while you would be hard pressed to find Saudi smugglers.

Our larger diaspora also plays a role too.

Speaking of Goerge Soros, Nigel Farage recently name dropped him in the European Parliament.

 

[Don]

Somalia is farther away, yet still thousands of new Somalis arrive in Europe every year.

I think it's mostly the network effect. Not enough Yemenis already in Europe to start a chain of migration.

Good ol' globalist George Soros should help them out. He also secretly funded groups that ''guided'' Syrians to Europe.

How do I come to Europe?

 

[Gilgamesh]

I dislike the Houthis but I dislike the Saudis even more soooo...I guess I support the secession?. Either way, I feel so bad for the innocent civilians caught in the collateral damage-- it's been a hell hole there the past few years. It's a heart breaking thing to see your beloved country being torn apart by monster's greed for power, they have my sympathies.

The Houthis aren't for secession but the Southerners who are Sunnis. The Houthis are pro-union because
they live in rugged resource-less mountains and they wouldn't want to lose South's oil fields that generate
almost all of Yemen's revenues.

 

[Apollo]

Is it just me or does Farage really look like Pepe the Frog?

 

[Arman]

Should they secede, which side would own Socotra?

 

[Apollo]

Should they secede, which side would own Socotra?

Socotris are culturally connected to the Southeast Sunni Yemenis.

 

[Canuck]

North Yemenis are Shia unlike south Yemeni who are Sunni. And that makes a big difference in political world.

 

[Prince of Lasanod]

Zaydis are Muslims who have been living peacefully with the Sunnis for many centuries. They pray in the same mosques, marry from each other, go to the same schools, live with each other etc.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Socotra is a Mahra Island. Mahra aka Arab Salah, they're Proto-Arabs who speak their own language. Their ruler is also the Sultan of a region in Yemen.

Why do Somalis keep claiming that island?

Funnily enough, it's usually Somalis from the South. UNUKA LEH disease needs to be treated.
Can't even rule or control the land you actually own yet you want some random island.

 

[Prince of Lasanod]

Socotra is a Mahra Island. Mahra aka Arab Salah, they're Proto-Arabs who speak their own language. Their ruler is also the Sultan of a region in Yemen.

Why do Somalis keep claiming that island?

Funnily enough, it's usually Somalis from the South. UNUKA LEH disease needs to be treated.
Can't even rule or control the land you actually own yet you want some random island.

The island is within Somalia's oceans, we should at least have fishing rights.

 

[Abdalla]

These amateurs are tying the dynamics and politics of another country's future on their own future.

'bbbbut you guys allowed yemen to split so why not us'

 

[Gilgamesh]

The Russians are trying to turn this into Syria 2.0

Very interesting, Mother Russia is making a resurgence in the world. They are checkmating the West and their poodles(Saudis) in every arena.
They have been low key supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan also to the detriment of the Americans so this isn't farfetched.

Russia is mediating negotiations for a political solution to the Yemen conflict outside of UN channels as a means to secure naval bases in Yemen. Russia is pursuing political negotiations with the UAE and former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh by beginning to discuss the future consensus Yemeni government. Saleh’s support for the Houthis is critical for the al Houthi-Saleh bloc to retain its influence across northern and central Yemen. The UAE may see this settlement as a way to halt the expansion of Iran’s influence in Yemen and to limit bearing further costs associated with the Yemeni war. Saleh previously expressed willingness to grant Russia military basing rights in Yemen. This basing would allow Russia to project power into one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes in the Red Sea and the Bab al Mandab strait, a global maritime chokepoint.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/russia...-for-us-military-involvement-in-syria/5587768

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov told the conference Moscow could not accept what he called a blockade.

"There are also worrying rumors about an assault on Hodeidah and then a move on (the capital) Sanaa; this is something we cannot allow to happen," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-security-un-idUSKBN17R18K