Leaflets have been airdropped over Jilib, warning residents to stay away from Kharijite controlled areas (Jilib will be on fire)

[tyrannicalmanager]

Spoiler

You don't have permission to view the spoiler content. Log in or register now.

You play too much paradox games.

 

[Duubpon]

You play too much paradox games.

What the hell are paradox games?

 

[ggoat]

no way are they going to use xabashi jets, I know fgs is stupid but they are not suicidal. they will probably use western drones for the bombings

Ethiopia is the only one willing to bomb a market something the UAE and US sidestep because the political fallout, legal risks, and PR nightmare outweigh the tactical gain. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is eager to prove itself as Somalia’s go-to security enforcer, even if it means doing the dirty work others won’t touch.

 

[mudugnapalm]

AS is an asymmetrical group, it's "headquarters" don't exist. There's no intelligence, political, and military office, they'd have been bombed a long time ago. A recent example of what indiscriminate bombings achieve can be seen in Laascaanood, it doesn't work.

 

[Zak12]

Ethiopia is the only one willing to bomb a market something the UAE and US sidestep because the political fallout, legal risks, and PR nightmare outweigh the tactical gain. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is eager to prove itself as Somalia’s go-to security enforcer, even if it means doing the dirty work others won’t touch.

It would be political and PR suicide for FGS to use Ethiopian jets on a Somali town. They are just asking for an Al-Shabab renaissance at that point.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Stupid. The Somali governments main line of attack against the khawrij is that they’re too blaise about Somali casualties, attempting to bombard Jilib using Ethiopian planes will make them conquer the south in a week

The whole “spilling Somali blood” line should be dropped, AS don’t care. The gov forces should take the fight to both AS and the clans that support it. Simple as.

 

[ggoat]

It would be political and PR suicide for FGS to use Ethiopian jets on a Somali town. They are just asking for an Al-Shabab renaissance at that point.

The FGS has already gone down that road, handing Al-Shabaab a lifeline narrative to rally support but do ordinary Somali citizens, those not aligned with Al-Shabaab, actually care, or is this just fueling militant propaganda more than real public outrage?

 

[ggoat]

The whole “spilling Somali blood” line should be dropped, AS don’t care. The gov forces should take the fight to both AS and the clans that support it. Simple as.

The fight against Al-Shabaab should have started in Jubaland with a full ground offensive, not a random drone strike in Jilib. A single airstrike won’t break an insurgency, it just signals retaliation not strategy. Optically, it looks like “you hurt our citizens, we’ll hurt yours,” which fuels grievances instead of solving the problem. If dismantling Al-Shabaab was the goal, securing key areas like Jubaland should have come first. But as always, HSM’s my qabil first tactics have backfired on all Somalis.

 

[Zak12]

The FGS has already gone down that road, handing Al-Shabaab a lifeline narrative to rally support but do ordinary Somali citizens, those not aligned with Al-Shabaab, actually care, or is this just fueling militant propaganda more than real public outrage?

Its fuel for propaganda. The very existence of Ethiopian/African troops in their lands gives Al-Shabab recruitment and sympathy among Somalis who have already grown to despise the federal government. Using Ethiopians to commit a massacre very well could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and give Al-Shabab full legitimacy.

 

[Hurder]

It would be political and PR suicide for FGS to use Ethiopian jets on a Somali town. They are just asking for an Al-Shabab renaissance at that point.

If this gives legitimacy to AS. Then i hope Somalis backhome enjoy starving. When AS gets to the capital Somalia will get sanctioned. It wont be funny nor entertaining. Remittances will not be allowed. Dahabshiil will not be allowed to function

 

[Aiman12]

Ethiopia is the only one willing to bomb a market something the UAE and US sidestep because the political fallout, legal risks, and PR nightmare outweigh the tactical gain. Ethiopia, on the other hand, is eager to prove itself as Somalia’s go-to security enforcer, even if it means doing the dirty work others won’t touch.

1. I doubt it will do much damage to AS itself since they probably moved everything vital from there now that they know it will be bombed

2. It will be one of the largest propaganda victories for AS in it's entire history and even more people will flock to them. They will milk it for years to come.

 

[ggoat]

1. I doubt it will do much damage to AS itself since they probably moved everything vital from there now that they know it will be bombed

2. It will be one of the largest propaganda victories for AS in its entire history and even more people will flock to them. They will milk it for years to come.

They’ll try to milk it, but Somalia has two main demographics: those under Al-Shabaab and those under an FMS/FGS administration. At this point, the latter don’t care who bombs Jilib or how many die there. But in 50/50 areas like Hirshabelle and Galmudug, the government needs to be careful—having Ethiopia bomb your family hits differently than a strike in Jilib, where most Somalis have zero personal connection