The two most prominent explanations given for the collapse is Oromo expansion and Portuguese maritime disturbance, both don't seem like very convincing explanations.
I am extremely doubtful of the Oromo invasion argument, firstly the portuguese noted that Awdalites weren't weakened by the war or loss of Gragn and were easily equipped to defend their territory. Heck Emir Nur carried it on, dubbed the second conqueror. And you can see consecutive Emirs of Awsa and Harar do punitive successful expeditions against them pushing them away , even Ugas Malik of Gadabursi in 1576 is recorded to land defeats against them
Same with the Portuguese bombing/disturbance argument, for one most of the army was away on conquest left the northern coast unguarded and the remaining stationed navy deviated to defend mecca and jeddah, so you have a mention of a famous Zayla Admiral partaking to defend it. When they sailed around Mogadishu much like Mecca/jeddah it was heavily guarded and didn't even bother initially. Even the places they did raze, like Barawa , the natives that deserted came back and quickly rebuilt the city and went back to activity, so how can that explain a collapse?
The Portuguese utterly failed to establish any dominion in the red sea. So how are they explaining that as a cause for Awdals collapse? Heck they couldn't even help Ethiopians in establishing a base on the coast so they continued to be landlocked and any time they landed on the Somali coast they got butchered.
A good study on their failure:
Conquistadores, Mercenaries, and Missionaries: The Failed Portuguese Dominion of the Red Sea
One interesting theme i noticed that is consistent and logically explains it is the famine and plague that are told in Southern/North West Somali traditions,
local awdalite chronicles speak of it also during Emir Nur's time you are probably familiar with it which also probably reduced Harars population to the same number and then i saw someoene share this Arabic source mention it
If you are confused about ''Al-Mujahid'' , its what the Ottomans like Salman Reis called Awdalites who are conducting jihad against the christians. He calls Zayla this in another paragraph i shared before, but it nonetheless confirms whats known in local sources and traditions.
Although the sources don't mention Locust, it's most the likely the cause of a massive locust swarm, because they mention plague and famine together.
4 years back the locust spread happened across East Africa and impacted Somalia.
To me this explanation sounds the most logical. It could be a combination of all of the above reasons but this being the most significant reason. @Emir of Zayla @Midas @NidarNidar @Step a side
I am extremely doubtful of the Oromo invasion argument, firstly the portuguese noted that Awdalites weren't weakened by the war or loss of Gragn and were easily equipped to defend their territory. Heck Emir Nur carried it on, dubbed the second conqueror. And you can see consecutive Emirs of Awsa and Harar do punitive successful expeditions against them pushing them away , even Ugas Malik of Gadabursi in 1576 is recorded to land defeats against them
Same with the Portuguese bombing/disturbance argument, for one most of the army was away on conquest left the northern coast unguarded and the remaining stationed navy deviated to defend mecca and jeddah, so you have a mention of a famous Zayla Admiral partaking to defend it. When they sailed around Mogadishu much like Mecca/jeddah it was heavily guarded and didn't even bother initially. Even the places they did raze, like Barawa , the natives that deserted came back and quickly rebuilt the city and went back to activity, so how can that explain a collapse?
The Portuguese utterly failed to establish any dominion in the red sea. So how are they explaining that as a cause for Awdals collapse? Heck they couldn't even help Ethiopians in establishing a base on the coast so they continued to be landlocked and any time they landed on the Somali coast they got butchered.
A good study on their failure:
Conquistadores, Mercenaries, and Missionaries: The Failed Portuguese Dominion of the Red Sea
One interesting theme i noticed that is consistent and logically explains it is the famine and plague that are told in Southern/North West Somali traditions,
An Introduction to the Economic History of Ethiopia,
local awdalite chronicles speak of it also during Emir Nur's time you are probably familiar with it which also probably reduced Harars population to the same number and then i saw someoene share this Arabic source mention it
If you are confused about ''Al-Mujahid'' , its what the Ottomans like Salman Reis called Awdalites who are conducting jihad against the christians. He calls Zayla this in another paragraph i shared before, but it nonetheless confirms whats known in local sources and traditions.
Arabian Studies - Volum 4 -
Although the sources don't mention Locust, it's most the likely the cause of a massive locust swarm, because they mention plague and famine together.
4 years back the locust spread happened across East Africa and impacted Somalia.
To me this explanation sounds the most logical. It could be a combination of all of the above reasons but this being the most significant reason. @Emir of Zayla @Midas @NidarNidar @Step a side
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