Most of Asia will grow old before rich, possibly Africa too.
- Thread starter GemState
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I've always loved this piece, particularly, the sections by Edward Luttwak.
"The market," he says, "invades every sphere of life," producing a "hellish society." In the same way that market values once threatened national security, they now threaten the economic and spiritual well-being of society. "An optimal production system is a completely inhuman production system," he explains, "because...you are constantly changing the number of people you employ, you're moving them around, you're doing different things, and that is not compatible with somebody being able to organize an existence for himself."
"I believe that one ought to have only as much market efficiency as one needs, because everything that we value in human life is within the realm of inefficiency—love, family, attachment, community, culture, old habits, comfortable old shoes."
I have come to revise my views of economic development away from numbers like GDP per capita and consider something deeper. Note that as every country in the Sino culture sphere develops, their birth rates crashed through the floor: China, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, etc ... I use the Sino culture since it equalises the cultural factor. Young people in these places just don't care enough to meet new people, form long-term relationship, and have children. You dig deeper and there are the some of the worst epidemics of loneliness, depression, exhaustion, burnouts among the urban young.
For Somalia & Africa, I think its 2-3 decades before we have the problem Bangladesh, India, do but I think it's important to be mindful of
@GemState
Economic deveploment is a must but Somalia has to magically avoid what has happened in the west and Asia. The erosion of religion and socialisation is sad to see. Somalis / africans probably will never have these problems at the same scale, people are more extroverted and abundance of sunlight makes people happy and sociable. I have seen in real life the sad ess of gaalos, especially the elderly.
Its unfathomable whats happening in East Asia, they are working themselves to extinction. China might do something about their ridiculous school and work culture, the banning cram schools the CCP
did shows they are aware of the cultural problem. African countries must be aware of what happened there and steer far away from it
Economic deveploment is a must but Somalia has to magically avoid what has happened in the west and Asia. The erosion of religion and socialisation is sad to see. Somalis / africans probably will never have these problems at the same scale, people are more extroverted and abundance of sunlight makes people happy and sociable. I have seen in real life the sad ess of gaalos, especially the elderly.
Its unfathomable whats happening in East Asia, they are working themselves to extinction. China might do something about their ridiculous school and work culture, the banning cram schools the CCP
did shows they are aware of the cultural problem. African countries must be aware of what happened there and steer far away from it
If the gaalo would allow it I think it would be best to move away from the usual urbanization model of the modern world and go more towards a sort of modernized agrarianism and just have some interwoven tuuloyin that are very heavily steeped in a sort of communal living with most large businesses and industries being jointly owned and managed by the locals (essentially cooperatives).
This would give our folk much more free-time and autonomy and, more importantly, social lives that will be fertile soil for meeting members of the opposite sex, coupling and having children. I like to picture a Somalia where the nomads and rural farmers have largely been made ranchers and homesteaders living in swanky geodesic dome tents like these as sort of modern Aqal Soomaalis:
Too bad the gaalo would likely nuke a society like this from orbit.
ZBR
سبحان اللهِ وبحمدِه Free Palestine
Great post brother, First we need to make rural life easy by establishing a input supply chain so they don’t have to move around, searching for rain, hay and livestock grains will be brought to them like ranches in Australia and American Southwest
Also the benefit of having such a spread out society would be that aerial bombing would be less effective or even down right economically unfeasible due to such low density
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IF u look at it- all humans face the same issue individual just like the all nations in the globe face same issue. You are only allowed to have enuf riches- i don't care how rich u r- there is a peak and decline. It seems that is the law of this earth.
Canada on course for an immigration of more than 800K this year.
Trudeau I'm sorry
Canada on course for an immigration of more than 800K this year.
Trudeau I'm sorry
View attachment 246380
GDP boils down to 3 things: # of working people × the amount of stuff they produce with capital-inputs per hour × # of hours they work. India stuck in "jobless growth" trap that prioritizes capital & FIRE sectors but low labour participation & low skills
Lopsided finance & real estate along with severe human capital blockages made India's growth highly unequal & self-limiting since 80s. 5 of the top 10 most polluting companies in the world are in India. Rather than adding 100 million manufacturing jobs, India lost 24 million jobs between 16-21.
India's capitalists captured loans from state banks and poured it into coal power, cement, steel etc.. They are now plunging into various greenwashing schemes with foreign companies as 5 of the top 10 most polluting companies in the world are in India.
About 42% of India’s labor force is engaged in agriculture, very high, and has a labor participation of women at 26%, quite low. If industrialization and women’s labor participation increases, India’s TFR will crash to South Korea levels.
Excellent interview explaining why there won't be an Indian century
Lopsided finance & real estate along with severe human capital blockages made India's growth highly unequal & self-limiting since 80s. 5 of the top 10 most polluting companies in the world are in India. Rather than adding 100 million manufacturing jobs, India lost 24 million jobs between 16-21.
India's capitalists captured loans from state banks and poured it into coal power, cement, steel etc.. They are now plunging into various greenwashing schemes with foreign companies as 5 of the top 10 most polluting companies in the world are in India.
About 42% of India’s labor force is engaged in agriculture, very high, and has a labor participation of women at 26%, quite low. If industrialization and women’s labor participation increases, India’s TFR will crash to South Korea levels.
Excellent interview explaining why there won't be an Indian century
Rathin Roy, an Indian economist, has a similar diagnosis. He makes the argument that India has a middle class of ~80 million that actually consume and that the rest of the population is living hand to mouth.
Even China is begining to look like it will grow old before it gets rich given how quickly it is slowing down. In 2000, South Korea's per capita income was the same as China's today. From 2000 to 2021, South Korea grew its per capita income at 5% per year.
What economist today thinks that China's gdp per capita will grow 5% per year from now until 2044? Not a single one.
Even Vietnam, who's profile is by far the most promising in developing Asia is barely growing at 6-7% at a per capita income of $3.8k, South Korea at the same income levels was hitting 12-13% growth consistently.
Most of Asia will hit a hard ceiling, the measuring stick of success in the future will be a Malaysia instead of Japan which is deeply depressing. If Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, etc are capped at $8-13k what chance do Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria have?
At this point, Africa should aim for middle income status and making African births as a % of global births as high as possible.
Avoid this at all costs
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The leverage africans could have in the coming decades is immense. Africans could be potentially the worlds workforce. African governments should demand tech exhanges after providing labour to rich countries. The continent needs this.
Hotchick12
VIP
I’m tired of the uk, do you think I can move to Canada after I graduate, how’s the tech scene I’m trying to get into thatCanada on course for an immigration of more than 800K this year.
Trudeau I'm sorry
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Just send them to work in your congo minesTo avoid such a fate we need to euthanize anyone above the age of 40 in somalia
Yaraye
VIP
These are all cute until the rainstorm or snowstorm blows everything away
These are all cute until the rainstorm or snowstorm blows everything away
They survive just fine in arctic conditions with blizzards no less. Not as weak as you think, abaayo. I wouldn't have suggested them otherwise. I've seen them in use in the neighboring gulf and do fine through violent desert sandstorms. The frames are steel and the tarps are pretty heavy. They sure can if a traditional Aqal could survive these environments.
Real development and industrialization is overall, always a bloody and a disgusting process, and nations which refuse to go through that, ultimately become India. Which is where Africa will likely head in the future.
Industrialization in nearly all countries, worsened health, and wages did not increase at all for decades. Nobody would tolerate this slavery, and that is why blood was needed. Industrial development only gives back to workers after decades, and workers and peasants will constantly revolt, as in Japan and Korea until there is development.
Freedom is incompatible with Industrialization, you either need to brutalize your own people (USSR, China) or have colonies to brutalize and help you subsidize your own process (Japan, UK).
Industrialization in nearly all countries, worsened health, and wages did not increase at all for decades. Nobody would tolerate this slavery, and that is why blood was needed. Industrial development only gives back to workers after decades, and workers and peasants will constantly revolt, as in Japan and Korea until there is development.
Freedom is incompatible with Industrialization, you either need to brutalize your own people (USSR, China) or have colonies to brutalize and help you subsidize your own process (Japan, UK).
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