Nigeria’s GDP per capita is same as Somalia

[Maintainnnin]

Somalia's real GDP per-capita is actually 6000 USD . The IMF is using outdated numbers that hasn't beenrebased yet

We can know the exact GDP numbers of Somalia because 98% of the economic transactions of the country uses mobile, because mobile money transactions cover almost all financial activity in Somalia, they provide the most accurate estimate of GDP. meaning it captures almost all economic activity—both formal and informal. Because of this, Somalia’s mobile money transaction volume is a direct reflection of its real GDP, unlike in many other countries where cash and bank transactions are more dominant.

Claiming that Somalia has a GDP per capita of $6,000 or anything close to it is absurd wlh. Just think about it logically, you’re arguing that Somalia is as economically productive as countries like South Africa, Albania, Lebanon and Indonesia , despite our significant institutional and infrastructural deficits compared to them. It really doesn’t add up if you use common sense.

There is a really obvious gap in development that even a layperson would notice just by walking through the streets of those countries compared to Somalia. Without even mentioning the infrastructure, just think of how the primary modes of transport in Somali cities are motorcycles and bajaajs, compared to the much more ubiquitous use of cars in those countries.

And this even before considering figures related to life expectancy, HDI, and other development indicators. You don’t have to be so fantastical when discussing Somalia you know.

 

[Idilinaa]

I'll make it simple. which numbers below do you think is incorrect. below is GDP formula. tell me value of each for you to get 90 billion

GDP =C+I+G+(X-M)

• Household Final Consumption (C): $13,340 million
• Government Final Consumption (G): $759 million
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation (I): $2,699 million
• Exports of Goods and Services (X): $1,804 million
• Imports of Goods and Services (M): $8,182 million

Most of the economic activity is informal and hidden. So those numbers don't relate to what is informal activity. So its under-reported data.

But the stuff about aid and remittances is wrong. Aid goes directly to the government and the government is mostly outside of most of the economy activity in the country. The rest of Somalia is self-sustaining capital wise.

Remittances only account for 6% of transactions and 2% of the total economy. Most of the economic activity is informal and hidden.

I fed Chat GPT the economic report by the UN in 2020.

If we take this and compare the widely held estimates by SNBS and World Bank. The UN gets those figures from mobile money transfer companies that digital track and record data btw. You can also see their estimate of 6% of this being remittances accurately fits the size being sent every year 1.9 billion by the diaspora. If it was inflated so to would be this number.

Also why stated figures in Somalia might be wrong? Is because Somalia's economy is largely informal and much that economic activity is not captured or counted.

But they start to become more fully visible when you look at mobile money transactions as they include both formal and informal activity.

Read through what i quoted above

Claiming that Somalia has a GDP per capita of $6,000 or anything close to it is absurd wlh. Just think about it logically, you’re arguing that Somalia is as economically productive as countries like South Africa, Albania, Lebanon and Indonesia , despite our significant institutional and infrastructural deficits compared to them. It really doesn’t add up if you use common sense.

There is a really obvious gap in development that even a layperson would notice just by walking through the streets of those countries compared to Somalia. Without even mentioning the infrastructure, just think of how the primary modes of transport in Somali cities are motorcycles and bajaajs, compared to the much more ubiquitous use of cars in those countries.

And this even before considering figures related to life expectancy, HDI, and other development indicators. You don’t have to be so fantastical when discussing Somalia you know.

Yeah its between 5000-6000. I'll make a more detailed thread on this. But the numbers don't lie.

You guys don't seem to understand that Somalia has a ridiculous productive and booming large private sector and informal trade economy but at the same time they have a very small weak public sector. Like 90% of the jobs and development in the country is in private sector. It's sprawling with business activity , trade and services. Unlike other countries where government spending and public sector plays a major role.

Infrastructure, public services and institutional stuff is the under taking of the Government. i.e Public sector. Not private citizens and private companies.

The public sector don't even tax a fraction of the economy in the country or re-invest it.

 

[Hilmaam]

Most of the economic activity is informal and hidden. So those numbers don't relate to what is informal activity. So its under-reported data. Read through this:



Read through this.



Yeah its between 5000-6000. I'll make a more detailed thread on this. But the numbers don't lie.

You guys don't seem to understand that Somalia has a ridiculous productive and booming large private sector but at the same time they have a very small weak public sector. Like 90% of the jobs and development in the country. It's sprawling with business activity , trade and services. Unlike other countries where government spending and public sector plays a major role.

View attachment 354603

Infrastructure, public services and institutional stuff is the under taking of the Government. i.e Public sector. Not private citizens and private companies.

The public sector don't even tax a fraction of the economy in the country or re-invest it.

90 billion!! you are saying their is a 70 billion dollar plus hidden economy that exists year after year. i'm speechless

 

[Idilinaa]

90 billion!! you are saying their is a 70 billion dollar plus hidden economy that exists year after year. i'm speechless

If mobile transactions represent 36% of GDP (as in Kenya and other mobile-driven economies), Somalia’s true GDP would be closer to $88-90 billion.

This doesn’t mean an extra $70 billion appears out of nowhere it means the economy was underestimated all along.

Many assume Somalia survives on remittances and aid, but remittances make up just 6% of mobile money transactions ($1.92 billion out of $32 billion). This suggests local business activity is much larger than previously thought.

It actually put's Somalia's government in a bad light because they haven't captured or even made use of it. They could even partner with local private companies to fund and build infrastructure and services. Something governments around the world do called Public-Private Partnership (PPP) since the government lacks funds. Although we are starting to see some of that happening.

 

[Hilmaam]

If mobile transactions represent 36% of GDP (as in Kenya and other mobile-driven economies), Somalia’s true GDP would be closer to $88-90 billion.

This doesn’t mean an extra $70 billion appears out of nowhere it means the economy was underestimated all along.

Many assume Somalia survives on remittances and aid, but remittances make up just 6% of mobile money transactions ($1.92 billion out of $32 billion).

This suggests local business activity is much larger than previously thought.

It actually put's Somalia's government in a bad light because they haven't captured or even made use of it.

I shared gdp formula above.

that number in kenyan report is just a ratio. They are comparing two unrelated things. basically using this formula (mobil money transfer) divided by (kenya gdp) = to get the percentage you are referencing. you are jumping all over place to make crazy conclusion by picking and choosing data points. you are also saying everything is spent digitally then at same time saying there is a 70 billion dollar hidden economy at same time. its mind boggling stuff

 

[Idilinaa]

I shared gdp formula above.

that number in kenyan report is just a ratio. They are comparing two unrelated things. basically using this formula (mobil money transfer) divided by (kenya gdp) = to get the percentage you are referencing. you are jumping all over place to make crazy conclusion by picking and choosing data points. you are also saying everything is spent digitally then at same time saying there is a 70 billion dollar hidden economy at same time. its mind boggling stuff

The number of ''36% of GDP'' i didn't get it from Kenya, i got it from the UN economic report on Somalia. 2.7 billion (32 billlion)

In Kenya the number is actually 42% of GDP. 38.5 billion, $3.21 billion per month

I only mentioned Kenya as an example to show how the math i did for Somalia is reliable, because its the same thing that the world organizations and Kenyan govt , others do for Kenya.

I said almost all transactions or economic activity in Somalia is carried out through digital mobile and not bank or cash. Like 98%. Which is true.

How can mobile money transactions value alone be nearly 3× times the entire GDP if it was 10/11 billion? which would make no sense.

 

[Hilmaam]

The number of ''36% of GDP'' i didn't get it from Kenya, i got it from the UN economic report on Somalia. 2.7 billion (32 billlion)

In Kenya the number is actually 42% of GDP.
View attachment 354604

I only mentioned Kenya as an example to show how the math i did for Somalia reliable, because its the same thing that the world Org's and Kenyan govt , others do for Kenya.

I said almost all transactions or economic activity in Somalia is carried out through digital mobile and not bank or cash. Like 98%. Which is true.

How can mobile money transactions alone be nearly 3× times the entire GDP if it was 10/11 billion? which would make no sense.

44% is ratio comparing two things. It’s just comparison, gdp formula is the gdp formula it’s not some multiplier of Mobil money transfers . The UN IMF all are involved in calculating Somalia gdp so you are picking and choosing

This is report you got Mobil money transactions from this same report states gdp is 7 billion at time. Mobile transactions money which can have same money show up many times is not part of gdp calculations and doesn’t mean 2.7 billion in economic value is generated each month or even 7.5 billion 90/12.

Somalia Economic Update: Rapid Growth in Mobile Money

Somalia’s economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3–4 percent, according to the third Somalia Economic Update (SEU) published by the World Bank. Titled “Rapid Growth in Mobile Money: Stability or Vulnerability?”, the SEU assesses Somalia’s vibrant...

www.worldbank.org

 

[Idilinaa]

44% is ratio comparing two things. It’s just comparison, gdp formula is the gdp formula it’s not some multiplier of Mobil money transfers . The UN IMF all are involved in calculating Somalia gdp so you are picking and choosing

This is report you got Mobil money transactions from this same report states gdp is 7 billion at time. Mobile transactions money which can have same money show up many times is not part of gdp calculations and doesn’t mean 2.7 billion in economic value is generated each month or even 7.5 billion 90/12.

Somalia Economic Update: Rapid Growth in Mobile Money

Somalia’s economy is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3–4 percent, according to the third Somalia Economic Update (SEU) published by the World Bank. Titled “Rapid Growth in Mobile Money: Stability or Vulnerability?”, the SEU assesses Somalia’s vibrant...

www.worldbank.org

How is it a ratio? when its valued at 38.5 billion at 44% of GDP by Kenya's national bank= The Central Bank of Kenya, IMF/World bank put Kenya's economy at 89.9 billion at the time. It's the portion of value added to the total GDP, not repeat transfers or multiplier.

Mobile money transactions equivalent of half of Kenya’s GDP

Central Bank of Kenya data shows that mobile money transactions stood at Sh3.98 trillion ($38.5 billion), having increased by Sh346 billion (10%) from 2017.

www.paymentscardsandmobile.com

The report i got my Somalia figures from is from UN IDO financial sector report.

https://downloads.unido.org/ot/21/18/21185699/1_UNIDO_MoCI%20Report%20Financial%20Sector_final.pdf

But the link you just showed me from World Bank echo's pretty much the same thing.

The 7 billion in 2017 is a portions of Somalia's GDP without the informal activity(they rely on formal data). Throughout the report they continuously reference how large portions of Somalia's economic and business activity is not captured due to the fact that it's informal, but it is reflected in the value of mobile money transactions.

 

[Aseer]

The number of ''36% of GDP'' i didn't get it from Kenya, i got it from the UN economic report on Somalia. 2.7 billion (32 billlion)

In Kenya the number is actually 42% of GDP. 38.5 billion, $3.21 billion per month
View attachment 354604

I only mentioned Kenya as an example to show how the math i did for Somalia is reliable, because its the same thing that the world organizations and Kenyan govt , others do for Kenya.

I said almost all transactions or economic activity in Somalia is carried out through digital mobile and not bank or cash. Like 98%. Which is true.

How can mobile money transactions value alone be nearly 3× times the entire GDP if it was 10/11 billion? which would make no sense.

How large is the private sector in Somalia compared to the public sector? Also can you give me a rundown on the percentage scale of transactions sent through mobile banking systems by private sectors versus public?

 

[Abdifataax98]

Idilinaa is coping. Yea we have a sizable informal economy in the south, but it would add $3–$5 billion at most.
And guess what? So do Nigeria and other underdeveloped countries. It’s best to use official data (even though I know it’s not accurate for countries like Ethiopia that straight up make up numbers) when comparing two underdeveloped nations.

Somalia’s official GDP per capita is $818, which is actually higher than both Nigeria and Ethiopia in 2024. A 6% real GDP per capita growth year to year is extremely impressive, especially when measured in USD rather than local currency, cuz we know countries regularly manipulate and artificially inflate values to show fake growth, GDP, and inflation numbers.

Nigeria, an oil-rich country with relatively stable regions (excluding parts of the north) good farmland, a large diaspora, and a dynamic local population, is still being outperformed by an unstable semi-failed state. lol just lol.

No amount of resources, good PR, living in the past or online memes will save you in the end. It all comes down to hard work and being constantly competitive.

Even within Somalia, there has been a significant divergence over the past decade that many people haven’t even noticed.

Khatgesya 2010-2023. The only major difference I see is the camera lens

Same road in Xamar 10 years difference. Completely unrecognizable..

 

[Idilinaa]

Idilinaa is coping. Yea we have a sizable informal economy in the south, but it would add $3–$5 billion at most.
And guess what? So do Nigeria and other underdeveloped countries. It’s best to use official data (even though I know it’s not accurate for countries like Ethiopia that straight up make up numbers) when comparing two underdeveloped nations.

Somalia’s official GDP per capita is $818, which is actually higher than both Nigeria and Ethiopia in 2024. A 6% real GDP per capita growth year to year is extremely impressive, especially when measured in USD rather than local currency, cuz we know countries regularly manipulate and artificially inflate values to show fake growth, GDP, and inflation numbers.
View attachment 354795

Nigeria, an oil-rich country with relatively stable regions (excluding parts of the north) good farmland, a large diaspora, and a dynamic local population, is still being outperformed by an unstable semi-failed state. lol just lol.

No amount of resources, good PR, living in the past or online memes will save you in the end. It all comes down to hard work and being constantly competitive.

Even within Somalia, there has been a significant divergence over the past decade that many people haven’t even noticed.

Khatgesya 2010-2023. The only major difference I see is the camera lens
View attachment 354797
Same road in Xamar 10 years difference. Completely unrecognizable..
View attachment 354798
View attachment 354799
View attachment 354800


View attachment 354801

The simple fact that Somalia has such a massive informal sector and extremely strong private sector in of itself is a coping mechanism. Well the informality part is but the private sector activity is driven by trade networks and group economics.

Informal economic activity is not inherently bad but it emerges as a response to failures in the formal system. Somalia’s lack of a strong government means people have built an economy that operates outside of state control.

You guys all focus on infrastructure like roads etc not understanding that it's the government, i.e Public sector who is responsible for building that and reinvesting/capturing the money in the country. In other countries you can most probably predict how strong their economy is by looking at their infrastructure because of how strong , large and functional their public sector is .

But with Somalia you can indicate it more by looking at Business activities in the country.


Video Walking through the busy the streets of Mogadishu.


Go to 5:50 minute mark

Comments from other Africans:

Video of a guy walking through the buzzling streets of Hargeisa:

Edit: Go to 7:51 minute mark

Comments from other Africans:

You can see it's just sprawling with malls, shopping stores, various diverse businesses of different types , vendors lining up the streets and its filled with a lot of activity.


You can also see it in the booming real estate market: You are seeing a lot of more high rise buildings and residential housing popping up , it's proof that there is growing wealth and middle class that demands it.

The last picture you posted with the guy over looking the skyline shows the construction boom that is happening.

Rayan Business center

Rayan Business Center – Buruuj Construction and Real Estate

Rayan Business Center

buruuj.so

Sunrise apartments.

Another thing that shows high business activity is that you see a lot of these advertisement posters lining up the streets in mogadishu. Even in the middle of the road.

I was explaining to @Shimbiris & @Midas that Somalia is an exceptional case study of an country.I t's a country 100% sustained by local entrepreneurial activity, whereas other African countries have their economy run by foreign multi-national companies or non-natives from other countries. It's opposite in Somalia they retain much of their wealth.

Both Nigeria and Kenya back in 2014/2021 has done a rebase that significantly revised upward their GDP because previously uncounted informal sectors (telecom, entertainment, trade) were included.


Ghana and Nigeria increased their GDP overnight by 60–90% after "rebasing" their calculations.

How to boost GDP stats by 60%

In 2010, Ghana announced a 60% increase in GDP estimates and Nigeria may soon follow suit. How do such miraculous rises come about?

www.bbc.com

Nigeria and Ghana’s informal sectors account for over 50% of their economies, yet both have large GDPs ($500B and $82B respectively).

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has an economy with 85% informality, yet its GDP is $65 billion.

Kenya's informal economy is ~80% of employment, yet its GDP is still $91 billion.

Somalia on the other hand 90% of their economy is informal, employs 90% of people and yet only 10% of its economy is formal so you use it to guestimate its economy to be 10 billion? How does that make sense?

So it's not farfetched for Somalia to increase their official GDP numbers by 9x if they do the same rebasing and capture informal activity.

Somalia’s GDP is supremely undervalued by global financial institutions because they use outdated models that fail to account for the cashless economy and informal sector.

Somalia's economic output in terms retail/trade, livestock/agricultural exports, telecom sector, transport, real estate/construction, energy and mobile banking system all operate on a massive scale.

 

[Idilinaa]

Video Walking through the busy the streets of Mogadishu.

Comments from other Africans:
View attachment 354820View attachment 354821
View attachment 354822


Video of a guy walking through the buzzling streets of Hargeisa:


Comments from other Africans:
View attachment 354823
View attachment 354824

You can see it's just sprawling with malls, shopping stores, various diverse businesses of different types , vendors lining up the streets and its filled with a lot of activity.

I don't know why the video links don't work or show

But you can click on them here to watch them: Very pleasant videos of an American filming the streets from last year.

Mogadishu busy streets:Business and activity

Hargeisa bustling streets

How large is the private sector in Somalia compared to the public sector? Also can you give me a rundown on the percentage scale of transactions sent through mobile banking systems by private sectors versus public?

95% of Somalia's economy is private sector. Only 5% is Public sector. The private sector is estimated to contribute about 95%–98% of GDP, while the government accounts for less than 2–5%.

Since the Somali government’s budget is under $1 billion per year, and mobile transactions exceed $32 billion annually, government-related transactions make up a very small share.

The vast majority (likely over 98%) of mobile transactions come from private businesses, individuals, and trade networks.

But yeah Somalia is not a poor country, it is generating a lot of wealth but the government is practically none-existent which creates problems. All it really is good for in most places is providing security and stability, but not much else because it is not funded by local Somalis or businesses.

 

[Abdifataax98]

I don't know why the video links don't work or show

But you can click on them here to watch them: Very pleasant videos of an American filming the streets from last year.

Mogadishu busy streets:Business and activity

Hargeisa bustling streets




95% of Somalia's economy is private sector. Only 5% is Public sector. The private sector is estimated to contribute about 95%–98% of GDP, while the government accounts for less than 2–5%.

Since the Somali government’s budget is under $1 billion per year, and mobile transactions exceed $32 billion annually, government-related transactions make up a very small share.

The vast majority (likely over 98%) of mobile transactions come from private businesses, individuals, and trade networks.

Where did u get the $32 billion yearly transactions from ?? Show me some stats

 

[Midas]

The simple fact that Somalia has such a massive informal sector and extremely strong private sector in of itself is a coping mechanism. Well the informality part is but the private sector activity is driven by trade networks and group economics.

Informal economic activity is not inherently bad but it emerges as a response to failures in the formal system. Somalia’s lack of a strong government means people have built an economy that operates outside of state control.

You guys all focus on infrastructure like roads etc not understanding that it's the government, i.e Public sector who is responsible for building that and reinvesting/capturing the money in the country. In other countries you can most probably predict how strong their economy is by looking at their infrastructure because of how strong , large and functional their public sector is .

But with Somalia you can indicate it more by looking at Business activities in the country.


Video Walking through the busy the streets of Mogadishu.


Go to 5:50 minute mark

Comments from other Africans:
View attachment 354820View attachment 354821
View attachment 354822


Video of a guy walking through the buzzling streets of Hargeisa:

Edit: Go to 7:51 minute mark

Comments from other Africans:
View attachment 354823
View attachment 354824

You can see it's just sprawling with malls, shopping stores, various diverse businesses of different types , vendors lining up the streets and its filled with a lot of activity.


You can also see it in the booming real estate market: You are seeing a lot of more high rise buildings and residential housing popping up , it's proof that there is growing wealth and middle class that demands it.

The last picture you posted with the guy over looking the skyline shows the construction boom that is happening.

Rayan Business center

Rayan Business Center – Buruuj Construction and Real Estate

Rayan Business Center

buruuj.so

Sunrise apartments.

Another thing that shows high business activity is that you see a lot of these advertisement posters lining up the streets in mogadishu. Even in the middle of the road.
View attachment 354818
View attachment 354819


I was explaining to @Shimbiris & @Midas that Somalia is an exceptional case study of an country.I t's a country 100% sustained by local entrepreneurial activity, whereas other African countries have their economy run by foreign multi-national companies or non-natives from other countries. It's opposite in Somalia they retain much of their wealth.
View attachment 354825
View attachment 354826
View attachment 354831

Both Nigeria and Kenya back in 2014/2021 has done a rebase that significantly revised upward their GDP because previously uncounted informal sectors (telecom, entertainment, trade) were included.


Ghana and Nigeria increased their GDP overnight by 60–90% after "rebasing" their calculations.

How to boost GDP stats by 60%

In 2010, Ghana announced a 60% increase in GDP estimates and Nigeria may soon follow suit. How do such miraculous rises come about?

www.bbc.com

Nigeria and Ghana’s informal sectors account for over 50% of their economies, yet both have large GDPs ($500B and $82B respectively).

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has an economy with 85% informality, yet its GDP is $65 billion.

Kenya's informal economy is ~80% of employment, yet its GDP is still $91 billion.

Somalia on the other hand 90% of their economy is informal, employs 90% of people and yet only 10% of its economy is formal so you use it to guestimate its economy to be 10 billion? How does that make sense?

So it's not farfetched for Somalia to increase their official GDP numbers by 9x if they do the same rebasing and capture informal activity.

Somalia’s GDP is supremely undervalued by global financial institutions because they use outdated models that fail to account for the cashless economy and informal sector.

Somalia's economic output in terms retail/trade, livestock/agricultural exports, telecom sector, transport, real estate/construction, energy and mobile banking system all operate on a massive scale.

While I wouldn't put it as high as 90 billion. Idinlaa makes a strong case for the fact that this economic activitiy isnt well recorded at all. Plus shes right you cant expect buisnessman to build infrastructure. Even dozens of incredibly rich businessesman collaborating could barely fix a couple roads since infrastructure is so expensive.

 

[Idilinaa]

Where did u get the $32 billion yearly transactions from ?? Show me some stats

From World Bank and the UN. They estimate that 2.7 billion transactions happen each month, which would be 32 billion a year if you add it up and it's 36% of GDP. It's accurate because its digitally recorded by mobile banking services, who handle these transactions.

This is insanely high volume. It proves high level of financial circulation. If Somalia had a weak economy it would have significantly lower than that like 500 million or even lower than that, with a share of 5% to 15% of GDP. South Sudan has for example 150 miilon , Burundi 200 million transactions , Chad has 100 million , Burundi has 200 million money transactions , it all proves weak financial sectors or fragile economies and high poverty.


But yeah if you scroll through this thread, you will see me show the sources: Here:

The report i got my Somalia figures from is from UN IDO financial sector report.

https://downloads.unido.org/ot/21/18/21185699/1_UNIDO_MoCI%20Report%20Financial%20Sector_final.pdf

But the link you just showed me from World Bank echo's pretty much the same thing.
View attachment 354609

The 7 billion in 2017 is a portions of Somalia's GDP without the informal activity(they rely on formal data). Throughout the report they continuously reference how large portions of Somalia's economic and business activity is not captured due to the fact that it's informal, but it is reflected in the value of mobile money transactions.

 

[Idilinaa]

While I wouldn't put it as high as 90 billion. Idinlaa makes a strong case for the fact that this economic activitiy isnt well recorded at all. Plus shes right you cant expect buisnessman to build infrastructure. Even dozens of incredibly rich businessesman collaborating could barely fix a couple roads since infrastructure is so expensive.

I definitely believe its between 80-90 billion. The math just adds up and it makes sense to me. You don't see the level of beggars, scammers and people trying to force you to buy stuff that you see visiting other poor countries, out of desperation. Literally people come to major cities and walk through it uninterrupted , other than security personel and people can leave their money out in open public stalls in Hargeisa without worrying about theft, it even shocked the American.

Actually dozens of businessmen have fixed or rehabilitated many different roads in Mogadishu , as well as other places like Garowe or in Somaliland and they even invested in port developments like Garacad for example, it 99% of it came from local private investors.

She explains it here the road constructions in Mogadishu and who pays it. It's local businesses, civil society leaders and sheikhs. Local businessmen are responsible for most of the funding at 50%. Property owners who's land connects to the road also pay like 15% or so. Taxes from the locals fund 35% percent.


Most of the areas are public spaces and private properties , there is a lot legal hurdles and property rights. Unless the government or private people contracts and partners up with them they wont do it.

 

[bobby_hill-Punt]

Sometimes I forget how mismanaged other african countries are, how does Nigeria, an oil rich country, have the same gdp per capita as us

I thought HSM was bad. We don't even have oil out yet.

 

[Idilinaa]

I definitely believe its between 80-90 billion. The math just adds up and it makes sense to me. You don't see the level of beggars, scammers and people trying to force you to buy stuff that you see visiting other poor countries, out of desperation. Literally people come to major cities and walk through it uninterrupted , other than security personel and people can leave their money out in open public stalls in Hargeisa without worrying about theft, it even shocked the American.

Actually dozens of businessmen have fixed or rehabilitated many different roads in Mogadishu , as well as other places like Garowe or in Somaliland and they even invested in port developments like Garacad for example, it 99% of it came from local private investors.

She explains it here the road constructions in Mogadishu and who pays it. It's local businesses, civil society leaders and sheikhs. Local businessmen are responsible for most of the funding at 50%. Property owners who's land connects to the road also pay like 15% or so. Taxes from the locals fund 35% percent.


Most of the areas are public spaces and private properties , there is a lot legal hurdles and property rights. Unless the government or private people contracts and partners up with them they wont do it.

@Midas @Shimbiris @Aseer @Hilmaam

Much like that video above breaks down. People don't realize the massive advantage Somalia has right now with so much business activity and wealth, it means that the government doesn't need to directly find foreign investors, at least not right away and can even split the investment pool, to maintain local ownership. It can use something called ''PPP''. A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is a collaboration between the government (public sector) and private businesses (private sector) to fund, build, and operate infrastructure projects like roads, ports, and energy systems.

Somalia has limited government funds but a strong private sector. It can bring in private companies to invest and manage the projects while still keeping some government oversight. PPPs allow big projects to be built faster and with private investment, reducing the financial burden on the government.

What the government also can do is take loans from Somali wealthy private investors or banks to fund industrial projects, once the industrial projects become profitable you pay back the money and the money stays in the economy. This is what countries like Japan has done to develop and industrialize itself earlier on and avoid debt traps.

It will make Somalia avoid going through IMF and World Bank or other foreign lenders that will come with their own demands and keep you depended.

Aside from the domestic business channels . Somalis don't also fully comprehend how advantageous it is for us to have such a large businesses savy diaspora pool in many key places. It's potential source of influence and investment vehicle for the country

Ideally i believe civil society leaders, businessmen, students, professionals and religious leaders should create a parallel government and security service , collect & fund it that can bring this about and eventually outs the corrupt foreign depended FGS and AS. Thats what needs to be done.

 

[Aseer]

I don't know why the video links don't work or show

But you can click on them here to watch them: Very pleasant videos of an American filming the streets from last year.

Mogadishu busy streets:Business and activity

Hargeisa bustling streets




95% of Somalia's economy is private sector. Only 5% is Public sector. The private sector is estimated to contribute about 95%–98% of GDP, while the government accounts for less than 2–5%.

Since the Somali government’s budget is under $1 billion per year, and mobile transactions exceed $32 billion annually, government-related transactions make up a very small share.

The vast majority (likely over 98%) of mobile transactions come from private businesses, individuals, and trade networks.

But yeah Somalia is not a poor country, it is generating a lot of wealth but the government is practically none-existent which creates problems. All it really is good for in most places is providing security and stability, but not much else because it is not funded by local Somalis or businesses.

Can you @ me when you make a more detailed thread on all this?

 

[Hilmaam]

@Midas @Shimbiris @Aseer @Hilmaam

Much like that video above breaks down. People don't realize the massive advantage Somalia has right now with so much business activity and wealth, it means that the government doesn't need to directly find foreign investors, at least not right away and can even split the investment pool, to maintain local ownership. It can use something called ''PPP''. A Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is a collaboration between the government (public sector) and private businesses (private sector) to fund, build, and operate infrastructure projects like roads, ports, and energy systems.

Somalia has limited government funds but a strong private sector. It can bring in private companies to invest and manage the projects while still keeping some government oversight. PPPs allow big projects to be built faster and with private investment, reducing the financial burden on the government.

What the government also can do is take loans from Somali wealthy private investors or banks to fund industrial projects, once the industrial projects become profitable you pay back the money and the money stays in the economy. This is what countries like Japan has done to develop and industrialize itself earlier on and avoid debt traps.

It will make Somalia avoid going through IMF and World Bank or other foreign lenders that will come with their own demands and keep you depended.

Aside from the domestic business channels . Somalis don't also fully comprehend how advantageous it is for us to have such a large businesses savy diaspora pool in many key places. It's potential source of influence and investment vehicle for the country

Ideally i believe civil society leaders, businessmen, students, professionals and religious leaders should create a parallel government and security service , collect & fund it that can bring this about and eventually outs the corrupt foreign depended FGS and AS. Thats what needs to be done.

Let’s agree to disagree. 90 billions nor even 20 billion is realistic to me for Somalia