Oil could’ve saved us a long time ago!

[Ashraf]

I’ve asked this question so many times on this forum but received no responses. Why didn’t Somalia start extracting oil during the early 1960s? Or even during the kacaan era? You know how much our fate would’ve changed. Oil exploration started in the early 1950s along with many other Arab nations. And our rocks were said to have resembled that of oil rich Yemen and they had high potential too! So why is it that, every single other country that was able to export oil did except us? It’s so bizarre. Libya Algeria Egypt Sudan Yemen . Literally how did we miss our chance! Even during the kacaan era, we received some oil technology from Sadaam (Iraq) but why couldn’t we negotiate with other communist powers like the Soviet’s. The Soviet’s complained we weren’t transitioning/integrating our economy as they liked, were they referring to the lack of oil extraction? Other poor sub Saharan nations communist or not had the ability. And there was no civil war issues/dangerous climate with extraction. So why the hell did it take us until the Reagan admin in the damn 1980s to sign PSA. (Production sharing agreements) and how was there no oil drilling attempted or extraction for over a decade. It doesn’t take that long even with the old technology. It just makes me think how much stronger and richer we would’ve been. Our fortunes could’ve changed in the Ogaden war if we had an oil agreement. With the Soviet’s we would’ve had a larger military. Taken Harar and dug in the mountains and the US would’ve eventually recognised our claims. Even if we still lost the Ogaden war. We wouldn’t be reliant on US aid for arms so the isaaq issue would’ve been easily dealt with preventing our collapse. Like wtf we were just exporting fish licenses and bananas . Were we that economically illiterate? I even read somewhere on this thread that the Saudis didn’t want us to extract it so gave us free oil for a certain period of time on that condition. Just unforgivable to know that our most productive natural resource at the time wasn’t utilised but instead was a wild card/ bargaining chip we wasted. someone please reply and let me know what you think, cuz we’re the largest untapped oil frontier in THE WORLD. and if we had extracted while we were a peaceful democratic or even communist nation, I’m confident our country would’ve looked a lot different from now. And not in a worse way.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I’ve asked this question so many times on this forum but received no responses. Why didn’t Somalia start extracting oil during the early 1960s? Or even during the kacaan era? You know how much our fate would’ve changed. Oil exploration started in the early 1950s along with many other Arab nations. And our rocks were said to have resembled that of oil rich Yemen and they had high potential too! So why is it that, every single other country that was able to export oil did except us? It’s so bizarre. Libya Algeria Egypt Sudan Yemen . Literally how did we miss our chance! Even during the kacaan era, we received some oil technology from Sadaam (Iraq) but why couldn’t we negotiate with other communist powers like the Soviet’s. The Soviet’s complained we weren’t transitioning/integrating our economy as they liked, were they referring to the lack of oil extraction? Other poor sub Saharan nations communist or not had the ability. And there was no civil war issues/dangerous climate with extraction. So why the hell did it take us until the Reagan admin in the damn 1980s to sign PSA. (Production sharing agreements) and how was there no oil drilling attempted or extraction for over a decade. It doesn’t take that long even with the old technology. It just makes me think how much stronger and richer we would’ve been. Our fortunes could’ve changed in the Ogaden war if we had an oil agreement. With the Soviet’s we would’ve had a larger military. Taken Harar and dug in the mountains and the US would’ve eventually recognised our claims. Even if we still lost the Ogaden war. We wouldn’t be reliant on US aid for arms so the isaaq issue would’ve been easily dealt with preventing our collapse. Like wtf we were just exporting fish licenses and bananas . Were we that economically illiterate? I even read somewhere on this thread that the Saudis didn’t want us to extract it so gave us free oil for a certain period of time on that condition. Just unforgivable to know that our most productive natural resource at the time wasn’t utilised but instead was a wild card/ bargaining chip we wasted. someone please reply and let me know what you think, cuz we’re the largest untapped oil frontier in THE WORLD. and if we had extracted while we were a peaceful democratic or even communist nation, I’m confident our country would’ve looked a lot different from now. And not in a worse way.

The economics behind oil is very misunderstood by Somalis, they see the gulf and think their rich but the gulf isn't rich, most their ppl live on aid or hand outs thru the royal family, it's like throwing money year after year into a pit of fire if your whole population is reliant to it and not having any return on investment or growth.

The Saudi have woken up and want to transition to proper economic model where their ppl are involved in the supply chain of diverse industries, yet Somalis are still 50 years behind and copying what the gulf did 50 years ago(that's a slave mentality).

Not to mention how fossil fuel will be over by 2050 as signed in the Paris accord by industrial countries, why would anyone pursue a dying industry again showing the slave mind syndrome. But in reality Somali governance is so bad, they can't even manage aid u think they can manage oil? It will always remain a poor country. Poverty is linked to the ppl values, cultures nothing else really and they don't hold good culture that can allow prosperity, a cultural revolution is needed first n foremost.

The best economic model is human capital not petty resources in the earth, I admire Paul Kagame vision, someone we can learn from. But without replacing Somali religiosity and cultural value, they can't develop into rich country, when religiosity is high, poverty is high as seen in dark age Europe, Somalia will always be in a dark age. The religion needs to be gutted completely especially the Saudi variant and Muslim brotherhood Colonial British variant, that was sent to keep you dumb n stupid like dark age Europe, after all your not a threat then. The culture needs completely gutting, some of the worst values r seen as the best thing there.

 

[DR OSMAN]

It's amazing these modern Muslims post Colonial, think their following Islam, your literally following a Colonial inspired Islam which the british allowed to be dominant, who u think founded the Saudi and armed them u think they didn't check to see their Islam is barbaric and cannot lead to Islamic golden age lol? they selected these Bedouin and gave them oil to then finance their low iq across the Muslim world. The brits knew if they created a Islam that had the same religiosity madness of dark age Europe, then it will allow for dark age Muslim world and therefore never a threat to the western world. Mind you it did work too

 

[Killamenace78]

I believe Somalia has no oil

 

[DR OSMAN]

We hold onto values that would've worked in our favour maybe in the middle ages where religiosity was the benchmark and currency and status, but in todays world u can be as religious as u want and even a saint, it's irrelevant in the world, the benchmark today is entrepreneurial spirit, inventors, wealth, we don't hold these values as the most supreme in our society and why it's going to be very hard to break the status quo we r in, we r just really holding exact values as dark age Europe did only different religion but the results won't be different, which is the intention of this Colonial inspired Islam.

 

[Ashraf]

The economics behind oil is very misunderstood by Somalis, they see the gulf and think their rich but the gulf isn't rich, most their ppl live on aid or hand outs thru the royal family, it's like throwing money year after year into a pit of fire if your whole population is reliant to it and not having any return on investment or growth.

The Saudi have woken up and want to transition to proper economic model where their ppl are involved in the supply chain of diverse industries, yet Somalis are still 50 years behind and copying what the gulf did 50 years ago(that's a slave mentality).

Not to mention how fossil fuel will be over by 2050 as signed in the Paris accord by industrial countries, why would anyone pursue a dying industry again showing the slave mind syndrome. But in reality Somali governance is so bad, they can't even manage aid u think they can manage oil? It will always remain a poor country. Poverty is linked to the ppl values, cultures nothing else really and they don't hold good culture that can allow prosperity, a cultural revolution is needed first n foremost.

The best economic model is human capital not petty resources in the earth, I admire Paul Kagame vision, someone we can learn from. But without replacing Somali religiosity and cultural value, they can't develop into rich country, when religiosity is high, poverty is high as seen in dark age Europe, Somalia will always be in a dark age. The religion needs to be gutted completely especially the Saudi variant and Muslim brotherhood Colonial British variant, that was sent to keep you dumb n stupid like dark age Europe, after all your not a threat then. The culture needs completely gutting, some of the worst values r seen as the best thing there.

Saudi economic model was doomed because oil is used to keep the populous obedient + content or the royal family would be usurped. Also Saudis didn’t invest into technological sectors, their populous is rather lazy importing everything instead of investing into new industries and technologies. They’re wasting $30billion on importing expired football players to boost their sports industry but that’s failing. They're the epitome of a client state. Somalia on the other hand has way different social and cultural norms to Saudi. Also we were in a great place to diversify our economy we didn’t need to rely on oil just use it as an engine boost to fire our economy. Also you didn’t comment on WHY we didn’t extract in the early 1960s.

 

[Ashraf]

I believe Somalia has no oil

Disproved multiple sources.

 

[Zak12]

I think the most likely answer was because the process was going very slowly. There very much was oil exploration going on but Somalia had yet to have actual proven commercial quantity oil until the 80s unlike Nigeria or Saudi Arabia so priority and interest in Somalia was low. For comparison sake, even Yemen exported its first oil in 1986, quite late compared to other Arabian countries so I imagine if the civil war didn't happen, Somalia would have been exporting oil in the 90s or 2000s at the absolute latest.

History - Somali Petroleum Authority

Exploration & Production 1948 1948’s Somali Exploration alongside legacy concession agreement Exploration began in 1948 when Sinchair Oil, connoco and Agin (now ENI) discovered eight petroleum basins: daban; Migiurtinia; Mudugh; Mogadishu; El-Wak Mandera; Ogaden; and Chismajo and Lamu Basin –...

hbs.gov.so

 

[DR OSMAN]

I think the most likely answer was because the process was going very slowly. There very much was oil exploration going on but Somalia had yet to have actual proven commercial quantity oil until the 80s unlike Nigeria or Saudi Arabia so priority and interest in Somalia was low. For comparison sake, even Yemen first exported its first oil in 1986, quite late compared to other Arabian countries so I imagine if the civil war didn't happen, Somalia would have been exporting oil in the 90s or 2000s at the absolute latest.

History - Somali Petroleum Authority

Exploration & Production 1948 1948’s Somali Exploration alongside legacy concession agreement Exploration began in 1948 when Sinchair Oil, connoco and Agin (now ENI) discovered eight petroleum basins: daban; Migiurtinia; Mudugh; Mogadishu; El-Wak Mandera; Ogaden; and Chismajo and Lamu Basin –...

hbs.gov.so

Somalis r poor at maths and make decisions just thru copy n paste on what others do which is the worst economics because u add extra pressure to the market space and as a whole weakens it for all players involved and why Saudi knew it had to keep a monopoly on it or else it's revenues will decline thru other exporters in the market space and that's why they exported wahabism for those reasons.

The oil market down to real world figures is 100 million barrells today globally a day which is declining yearly thru renewable untill 2050 when it's completely useless, that's a revenue stream of 10 billion dollar a day market space mind you this is when it's at its best rate, the reality is the average prices per barrel is $50 when u accumulate all the different rates of each year since the 50s and divide it among itself. So let's argue a more realistic figure and say its a 5 billion a day is the market space value, this doesn't include how much operating cost you need to expend in production cycle, refining cycle cost, shipping costs, wages(usually low for manual labor if not engineers) what's hurt this industry is its low rate to provide mass employment since most of it is automated so the bulk masses won't benefit. Then it has to be split 50/50 between oil producer and state and then when u have bad governance on top of that whatever Pennies is left is looted to help state actors because the revenues are to low to help fuel economic investment.

I didn't even mention you also got 20 countries all inside the oil game so that will also add pressure to what your minimal slice is. It's the most over rated Hollywood hyped industry not found to be true if u crunch the numbers in real analysis.

 

[Zak12]

Somalis r poor at maths and make decisions just thru copy n paste on what others do which is the worst economics because u add extra pressure to the market space and as a whole weakens it for all players involved and why Saudi knew it had to keep a monopoly on it or else it's revenues will decline thru other exporters in the market space and that's why they exported wahabism for those reasons.

The oil market down to real world figures is 100 million barrells today globally a day, that's a revenue stream of 10 billion dollar a day market space mind you this is when it's at its best rate, the reality is the average prices per barrel is $50 when u accumulate all the different rates of each year since the 50s and divide it among itself. So let's 5 billion a day is the market space value, this doesn't include how much operating cost you need to expend in production cycle, refining cycle cost, shipping costs, wages(usually low for manual labor if not engineers) what's hurt this industry is its low rate to provide mass employment since most of it is automated so the bulk masses won't benefit. Then it has to be split 50/50 between oil producer and state and then when u have bad governance on top of that whatever Pennies is left is looted to help state actors because the revenues are to low to help fuel economic investment.

I didn't even mention you also got 20 countries all inside the oil game so that will also add pressure to what your minimal slice is. It's the most over rated Hollywood hyped industry nor found to be true if u crunch the numbers in real analysis.

Somalis aren't poor at maths lol we are an entrepreneurial people (compared to most Africans). Our weakest quality is at politics and the inability to led go of tribalism. I do agree however that oil shouldn't be relied on. Human capital is by far the most important asset for Somalia.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalis aren't poor at maths lol we are an entrepreneurial people (compared to most Africans). Our weakest quality is at politics and the inability to led go of tribalism. I do agree however that oil shouldn't be relied on. Human capital is by far the most important asset for Somalia.

Yes no matter what happens to natural resources when u have an educated and innovative society that will always find ways to keep your society advancing and creating opportunities this is the highest grade of a civilization, unlike natural resources. cultures who rely on natural resources is cause their ppl are not a resource and natural world is far more valuable lol.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

Not just oil, there’s natural gas and stuff there, but Somalia won’t ever be able to extract it nor use the revenue from it in a beneficial manner.

FGS in its current form, since 2012 onwards has been nothing more than a robber state. Every minister who’s walked through the door in whatever ministry has plundered the coffers of the state and government posts are nothing more than corruption money accumulators. Oil won’t solve anything.

My advice is to focus on your own gobol and deegan, you can affect change from there in a positive manner if you wish to.

 

[Hotchick12]

Not just oil, there’s natural gas and stuff there, but Somalia won’t ever be able to extract it nor use the revenue from it in a beneficial manner.

FGS in its current form, since 2012 onwards has been nothing more than a robber state. Every minister who’s walked through the door in whatever ministry has plundered the coffers of the state and government posts are nothing more than corruption money accumulators. Oil won’t solve anything.

My advice is to focus on your own gobol and deegan, you can affect change from there in a positive manner if you wish to.

im sorry what coffers from the state, somalis are hardly taxed the only money they steal are from international donors

 

[NidarNidar]

The economics behind oil is very misunderstood by Somalis, they see the gulf and think their rich but the gulf isn't rich, most their ppl live on aid or hand outs thru the royal family, it's like throwing money year after year into a pit of fire if your whole population is reliant to it and not having any return on investment or growth.

The Saudi have woken up and want to transition to proper economic model where their ppl are involved in the supply chain of diverse industries, yet Somalis are still 50 years behind and copying what the gulf did 50 years ago(that's a slave mentality).

Not to mention how fossil fuel will be over by 2050 as signed in the Paris accord by industrial countries, why would anyone pursue a dying industry again showing the slave mind syndrome. But in reality Somali governance is so bad, they can't even manage aid u think they can manage oil? It will always remain a poor country. Poverty is linked to the ppl values, cultures nothing else really and they don't hold good culture that can allow prosperity, a cultural revolution is needed first n foremost.

The best economic model is human capital not petty resources in the earth, I admire Paul Kagame vision, someone we can learn from. But without replacing Somali religiosity and cultural value, they can't develop into rich country, when religiosity is high, poverty is high as seen in dark age Europe, Somalia will always be in a dark age. The religion needs to be gutted completely especially the Saudi variant and Muslim brotherhood Colonial British variant, that was sent to keep you dumb n stupid like dark age Europe, after all your not a threat then. The culture needs completely gutting, some of the worst values r seen as the best thing there.

Oil will still have a place, it will take about a century to wean off it as we find better alternatives, electric cars are not the way, they are just as damaging to the environment via extracting resources in the third world and recycling, the majority of electricity is still produced via burning coal.

The Norwegian model is the best. If oil is extracted, our priority should be infrastructure and education. The quicker those two go up, the more jobs will be created and the more investment will be attracted. The rest should be put into a sovereign wealth fund.

 

[DR OSMAN]

im sorry what coffers from the state, somalis are hardly taxed the only money they steal are from international donors

Even if oil was produced do u honestly think it will benefit the state when u know they even steal aid money, that's wishful thinking. Somalia will just be another oil cursed country they may even win the award on the most cursed but that's about it.

Maybe u can sell that to the kids but u can't sell that to adults like @TekNiKo

 

[DR OSMAN]

I told this Tutsi dude here who is a doctor your ppl r blessed, it's a much easier working environment(due to their amazing reconciliation model) to get things done and you got a once in a century leadership, I said to him Somalia is blessed only location wise and natural resource wise, but the ppl r cursed ppl so none of that will even eventuate to any tangible benefits for them other then curses. U need good cultured ppl first, u can have everything but if ur ppl have a bad culture none of that will ever be realised.

Cheating, lying, stealing, killing, fraud, these r the top values in Somalia absolutely unworkable culture that cannot produce any positive result with a foundation like that. A man once exclaimed Somalis can solve and r busy in world affairs but cannot be involved or solve a single somali village issue. As @The Oponian Guild said we need to focus internally big time not externally. We need to be inward culture like Chinese ppl not wasting time on external cultures if we want success.

Dad waa dagaalama lakin waa laga heeshiya not remain in 30 year stateless vacuum only in Somalia u see such madness. Somalia isn't a gob nation like other countries who can move past conflict.

 

[The Oponian Guild]

im sorry what coffers from the state, somalis are hardly taxed the only money they steal are from international donors

That money is meant to go towards the budget and be allocated to whatever sector needs it, therefore it enter the coffers of the state. This is inexcusable and it hampers the development of the country and it’s infrastructure, whilst making it incredibly difficult to secure loans or aid in the future from international donors.

 

[berberaboy66]

I think people are so desperate for a functioning country that we’re praying for oil to be found. Oil will make us functional, people will buy in, but it will be a forced buy in.

Nowadays Somalis can’t live with each other but they all get along pretty well, bring in an external factor like oil that completely changes clan dynamics, don’t be surprised if our social cohesion dies out and there’s another 88 or 91

 

[Xoolo]

Typical Somalis going off topic as always. Like y'all are programmed to never address the topic on the table.

The guy asked you one question and in 17 replies there's no single answer to the question.
Answer the damn question or shut your mouth.

In my opinion and what I heard is that Somalia sold itself short. Some Arab countries bribed Somali politicians since 60s, they're not happy to this day to see an oil rich Somalia.
The Arab countries pay for everything wrong in Somalia. I'm 200% that they are behind so many things wrong with Somalia.
If anyone here has a family member who was a wasiir or higher than wasiir in the FGS knows that Somalia is sold cheap by these politicians.

In Somalia all the government does is always something bad for the country.
One example is how they always make a messy statements in conflicts that Somalia is not even a relevant player.
The way they post useless paper on twitter.
These actions are intentionally done to show others Somalia is useless and no one should take the country serious.

So in the big fields like oil, military and other big projects Somalia is always seen as the stupid useless not trustworthy guy that will never achieve anything.

 

[Midas]

Oil is honestly incredibly destructive most of the time when it comes to economic growth especially in african countries. People might look at saudi and be hopeful. But the reality of Saudi Arabia is that 70% of the native saudis work for the government and their jobs are basically a form of social welfare . If you google saudis pouplation it says 36 million. 45% of that 36 million is actually immigrants. Who are here on visas. All the real technical work and hard labor is done by them. Even then saudi arabia has no real industries that are unrelated to oil. I dont think it will he possible to make local saudis who haven't had to really work for several decade. Somehow become hardworking