Phase 1 Galmudug Front showing signs of total collapse as Shabaab recapture two important districts.

[Enlightenednomad]

Bacadweyn, Camara, and Caad have been recaptured by Shabaab. A lot of factors have contributed to these loses including a lack of leadership shown by the SNA command, a shortage of fuel/food and munitions. Along with salary that has not been paid to the SNA soldiers. Funds coming from the UAE intended for certain units within the SNA have started to get rolled back since December which has contributed to the logistics and salary crises. Shabaab have started to reach out to the local macawiisley using money to either recruit or persuade fighters to pull out of towns they intend to take back.

 

[Enlightenednomad]

Looks like Geylan was right about the UAE giving up on HSM! Much blood has been spilled in Mudug to capture these towns. It would be even worse if the Hirshabelle Sh/Dhexe front collapses which it too is showing signs of concern with the local macawiisley and residents giving complaints about a lack of direction or strategy for the fight against Shabaab and other support needed from the government not given.

Gurguurte-UAE ties worsening

Ties with the UAE was getting worse even before the assassination of top Emirati military officials. The most senior official came to Xamar to sort out the salary dispute with Villa Somalia as the UAE stopped paying a portion of the 10K+ troops they trained last December after the defense...

www.somalispot.com

 

[Gaandheri]

Will shabaab capture major districts such as Masagawa, Xarardheere, ruunigrood, aadan yabaal?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

 

[FBIsomalia]

I knew he will lose, let us see.

 

[Nin123]

I knew he will lose, let us see.

Me and you we knew it from the beginning

 

[Pastoralist]

Me and you we knew it from the beginning

Everybody who’s seen HSM first term knew this shit

 

[Celery]

Would not be surprised if after five years of the deal with Turkey we’re still struggling to take back towns from dudes with underwear on their faces.

 

[Celery]

AS would’ve been defeated a long time ago by any other group of people. The masses need to realize that if they want a bright future for themselves and children it cannot happen with AS around. There’s a misguided belief that people who want to rule by the sharia can’t be bad.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Me and you we knew it from the beginning

Those HAG kids will not understand reality says, they cant do shit without killing, moryaanimo and loot.

Its part of their DNA, if Deni was here you will see result, today Sool is free .

 

[cow]

AS would’ve been defeated a long time ago by any other group of people. The masses need to realize that if they want a bright future for themselves and children it cannot happen with AS around. There’s a misguided belief that people who want to rule by the sharia can’t be bad.

Al shabab wether people like it or not is grassroots opposition. Who has deep support from clans because al shabaab in their territory has monopoly on violence. The so called government is a top down group of mafia created by xalane and held together by amisom and donor money.

The government doesn't represent anyone. Look at ulusow for example his own kids are in the government his daughter is the defacto foreign minister and his close inner circle who are from his clan control every single government function.

The truth is if today xalane stops paying amisom.
The south will fall to Al shabaab quicker then Afghanistan fell to the taliban.

 

[Killamenace78]

Al shabab wether people like it or not is grassroots opposition. Who has deep support from clans because al shabaab in their territory has monopoly on violence. The so called government is a top down group of mafia created by xalane and held together by amisom and donor money.

The government doesn't represent anyone. Look at ulusow for example his own kids are in the government his daughter is the defacto foreign minister and his close inner circle who are from his clan control every single government function.

The truth is if today xalane stops paying amisom.
The south will fall to Al shabaab quicker then Afghanistan fell to the taliban.

Exactly corruption is no joke we are literally rated the most corrupt country in the world that title is no joke I’ve said it multiple times alshabab cannot be defeated with guns the root cause should be solved then it will naturally die out

 

[Celery]

Al shabab wether people like it or not is grassroots opposition. Who has deep support from clans because al shabaab in their territory has monopoly on violence. The so called government is a top down group of mafia created by xalane and held together by amisom and donor money.

The government doesn't represent anyone. Look at ulusow for example his own kids are in the government his daughter is the defacto foreign minister and his close inner circle who are from his clan control every single government function.

The truth is if today xalane stops paying amisom.
The south will fall to Al shabaab quicker then Afghanistan fell to the taliban.

That’s true unfortunately. Does anyone say anything when unqualified family members of the president are in the government? Let’s hope this deal with Turkey gives people economic opportunities and that HSM doesn’t take ALL of the money.

 

[johnsepei5]

HSM is seen as a tuug
Al shabab are regarded as heroes in the south

 

[Macawisley]

Yeah, I think it’s time Hiiraan secedes or joins Ethiopia. We don’t want Al-Shabaab in our lands.

 

[Interested]

They both need to negotiate and come to the table for an official agreement, save us the headache.

What honor would come from with these khat enthusiasts?

Shariah and peace, even if it is under AS. We should be tired at this point..I'm afraid we will continue fighting each other until we become another Ethiopian state.

 

[Step a side]

That’s what happens when you consume the salary intended for the soldiers.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Did anyone think the mafia were going to fight a real war?

The core business of the mafia is eating incoming government funds, taking a cut of new deals that kind of thing. As long as America is desperate for a partner, they just have to do the bare minimum and occasionally put on a big show and the money will keep flowing.

Winning the war would be the end of the business model. They are definitely capable of doing much more; they just aren't in that business. Good governance, development and compromise is for nerds. The mafia needs cold hard cash now.

After a while the population will think, "Hey this guy isn't doing anything!" and so the commision of crime families will replace Don Corleone with Don Barzini as the new Capo dei Capi, boss of bosses, or just simply the President of Somalia and the show will start again.

 

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

An ideology could not be defeated with vacuous rhetoric.

There never was a plan to defeat. Re-visit the Hudson institute report.

Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity.

Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations.

[ ]

In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak.

[ ]

At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf

 

[Prime Minister]

These towns are not worth dying over if the inhabitants want al-Shabaab do we bribe them? The whole place should be blocked.