Phase 1 Galmudug Front showing signs of total collapse as Shabaab recapture two important districts.

[wonyluvr]

HSM is seen as a tuug
Al shabab are regarded as heroes in the south

don’t say that shit

 

[Pastoralist]

These towns are not worth dying over if the inhabitants want al-Shabaab do we bribe them? The whole place should be blocked.

The public aren’t blind to what the government does. When they see stuff of the president saying “Israel is a state” there’s a real war of ideology that must be recognized. This is a Muslim country which the president gives a lot of flack. He kicked poor Somali people out of abandoned areas with nowhere to live, to make room for gaal Italians who want to build churches. The president himself has probably soared recruitment.

@Wonyluvr and that guy isn’t lying. A lot of people in regions consider the government and Al Shabaab synonymous.

 

[Step a side]

The public aren’t blind to what the government does. When they see stuff of the president saying “Israel is a state” there’s a real war of ideology that must be recognized. This is a Muslim country which the president gives a lot of flack. He kicked poor Somali people out of abandoned areas with nowhere to live, to make room for gaal Italians who want to build churches. The president himself has probably soared recruitment.

@Wonyluvr and that guy isn’t lying. A lot of people in regions consider the government and Al Shabaab synonymous.

Notice how Mogadishu bombings stopped as soon as Damuljadiid came into power. They work together. All our soldiers have been xasuuqed.

 

[aerocon]

What a mess.. and I was wondering why HSM asked Firdhiye for a battalion with 20 or so technicals and maybe a couple of tanks when he has ciidanka qaranka and AMISOM, Puntland and the Garaads talked him out of it tho, obviously Deni want's to make defeating AS his primary campaign promise in the next national election

 

[Pastoralist]

Notice how Mogadishu bombings stopped as soon as Damuljadiid came into power. They work together. All our soldiers have been xasuuqed.

It’s very sad that foreigners control us and use al shabaab to destroy xamar if a politician doesn’t as their instructed. Currently the city is full of them and they casually roam, people willing to take 10 Somalis with them if they go against their agenda. Dismantling SNA protocol by this government will be the biggest treason they committed. I’m very angry at cheese for building and not being able to guarantee their security.

 

[Pastoralist]

What a mess.. and I was wondering why HSM asked Firdhiye for a battalion with 20 or so technicals and maybe a couple of tanks when he has ciidanka qaranka and AMISOM, Puntland and the Garaads talked him out of it tho, obviously Deni want's to make defeating AS his primary campaign promise in the next national election

Deni will be able to do it as he isn’t too much of a corrupt neef. But he isn’t a nationalist so I expect him to do some….controversial things. But after finishing shabaab, everyone will love him.

 

[Pastoralist]

What a mess.. and I was wondering why HSM asked Firdhiye for a battalion with 20 or so technicals and maybe a couple of tanks when he has ciidanka qaranka and AMISOM, Puntland and the Garaads talked him out of it tho, obviously Deni want's to make defeating AS his primary campaign promise in the next national election

Deni will be able to do it as he isn’t too much of a corrupt neef. But he isn’t a nationalist so I expect some happenings under him.

 

[Step a side]

It’s very sad that foreigners control us and use al shabaab to destroy xamar if a politician doesn’t as their instructed. Currently the city is full of them and they casually roam, people willing to take 10 Somalis with them if they go against their agenda. Dismantling SNA protocol by this government will be the biggest treason they committed. I’m very angry at cheese for building and not being able to guarantee their security.

How many times did SNA vacate a town leaving behind weapons only for shabaab to take it? It’s obvious shabaab are inside the government.

 

[Cartan Boos]

Why is macawiisley not working in that region like it did in hiiraan?

 

[Pastoralist]

I posted twice uff. Brain fog @Admin can u delete. I meant to edit

 

[DR OSMAN]

S

An ideology could not be defeated with vacuous rhetoric.

There never was a plan to defeat. Re-visit the Hudson institute report.

Consequently, the situation looks less promising than it did at the end of 2022, and al-Shabaab is unlikely to face a meaningful defeat in the coming months. Instead, the best-case scenario would see this military offensive degrade al-Shabaab over the coming months to the point that the terrorist organization partially fractures and loses some of its popular support, possibly opening up room for the FGS to negotiate with factions of the group. A more likely scenario, however, would see the conflict remain a stalemate, with the government’s current offensive bringing only temporary or superficial gains that do not meaningfully degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity.

Given the improbability of a decisive military victory in the coming months or even years, the previously taboo notion of negotiating with the terrorists has gained traction in certain Somali political circles of late. President Hassan Sheikh has even oscillated between claiming that the objective of the current offensive is al-Shabaab’s complete battlefield defeat and claiming that the offensive aims to push the group into negotiations.

[ ]

In principle there is no reason to prefer an endless and fitful counterinsurgency to negotiations, but in practice it would be difficult to secure anything like an acceptable compromise at this stage. Some Somali security sources with knowledge of the group suggested that while al-Shabaab might enter negotiations with international powers, such as the US and Turkey (likely with mediation by Qatar, whose role in Somalia has proven controversial), it has no interest in speaking to the Somali government, which it sees as illegitimate and weak.

[ ]

At present this looks to be the best-case scenario, though unfortunately not the most likely one. But policymakers would do well to consider scenarios that might be acceptable to their interests rather than buy into unrealistic claims about the impending defeat of Africa’s most powerful jihadist group.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Faltering+Lion+-+James+Barnett+Sep+2023.pdf

I love your articles, you would be great addition to the proposed yet to arrive new political section dealing with high quality articles, criticism/analysis, and solutions/recommendations. Somalis are expert whiners but they don't ever provide a solution but a void like 91 and you see them do it here and boo and criticism but not a single solution comes out of his mouth, hence the conditions of a void like 91 presents itself all over again.

 

[FBIsomalia]

That’s what happens when you consume the salary intended for the soldiers.

Its call moryaanimo .

 

[reer]

culusow said he is against somalia having a powerful army. what do you expect from a guy who is trying to make somalis become maato?

 

[FBIsomalia]

These towns are not worth dying over if the inhabitants want al-Shabaab do we bribe them? The whole place should be blocked.

The issue is mentlity of HAG, they dont want to kill them. Why Puntland safe is because we apply policy no mercy, court decide to be free or will kill.

 

[FBIsomalia]

What a mess.. and I was wondering why HSM asked Firdhiye for a battalion with 20 or so technicals and maybe a couple of tanks when he has ciidanka qaranka and AMISOM, Puntland and the Garaads talked him out of it tho, obviously Deni want's to make defeating AS his primary campaign promise in the next national election

If Deni was here, Somalia will better place like he did to puntland, but again HAG vote their boy Qoslaya because of moryanimo.

 

[Camaar]

Deni will be able to do it as he isn’t too much of a corrupt neef. But he isn’t a nationalist so I expect him to do some….controversial things. But after finishing shabaab, everyone will love him.

Lmao if HAG president can't defeat shabab in HAG land you think deni an outsider can do it? It will be hard for deni to become president but if he does, it will be the best thing to happen to shabab

 

[Gaandheri]

Lmao if HAG president can't defeat shabab in HAG land you think deni an outsider can do it? It will be hard for deni to become president but if he does, it will be the best thing to happen to shabab

What do you mean explain? Deni would bring in PL troops.

 

[Zob]

Not surprised at all this is what happens when you have a donkey as president.

 

[Hassan Garguute Buldanana]

It's time for the IC to cut off everything. How long will the babysitting continue?

 

[Burqad]

Lmao if HAG president can't defeat shabab in HAG land you think deni an outsider can do it? It will be hard for deni to become president but if he does, it will be the best thing to happen to shabab

Tbf, puntlanders have no interest in the south so unlike a HW president they can be assumed to be neutral.