Somaliland's biggest nightmare is a Puntland that has more state capacity than it does. Already Puntland as a government is a more efficient spender, combine this with a focus on spending on infrastructure, and the long term looks to favor Puntland.
Isaaq could have had a peaceful Djibouti to their east, but instead chose to engage in security competition against the most well organized Somali subclan. Very bad idea.
It’s very telling that only Puntlanders keep claiming they are a threat to Somaliland when Somaliland views Puntland as a joke.
As for “the most well organised clan” claim, here are some facts:
- Puntland has no history of organised economic activity. The earliest colonial records show the revenue of modern day Puntland was less than the most minor of Somaliland ports.
- during Kacaan, SSDF was the most ineffective and unorganised rebel group, they failed to achieve any of their objectives despite heavy Ethiopian and Libyan support, ended up surrendering to Afweyne.
- in modern days Puntland lost every single military encounter with Somaliland. They still have hardly any economic activity in that region, virtually no valuable businesses or means of generating state revenue.
Puuntlanders can make whatever fancy claims that make them sleep better at night, but when you look at the facts on the ground you can see why most Somalilanders view them as a joke.
This thread is a good example of why we view them as a joke, their VP took a 10 minute drive outside of Garowe and they make a thread insinuating he went deep into Sool, their desperation is borderline funny