Serious Questions.
Reer HSM switch to Alkabaab side
- Thread starter FBIsomalia
- Start date
Serious Questions.
Iska sawiir
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I honestly think if it wasn't for foreign intervention and our pestering neighbours Ethiopia we would find a balance to the problems in the south or a local grassroots form of government. However, as the saying goes 'too many cooks spoil the broth."
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Those AQ guys are still chilling in Afghanistan. zawahiri was killed in a Taliban affiliate house. They’re just small in number and Taliban makes sure they don’t do anything silly. AQ is not that influential anymore anyway. The group in Mali and shabab have outgrown them.
Shabab isn’t what it was under Godane when they were targeting people in Uganda and Nairobi. However, I don’t really see them negotiating like the Taliban with the international community and trying to make Somalia part of the global world. The Salafi jihadi outlook is narrow and doesn’t give them much room to manoeuvre unless you have someone bold like Jolani who did a complete ideological assessment of his political ideology without losing his core support base. No such figure exists amongst shabab and such a person would be declared a Gaal. HTS realigned their doctrine to allow other sunni schools of thought to function as Qadis and be included their judicial system before they embarked on extending their control to other areas of Syria. To the same extent, Taliban was able to give themselves room to be pragmatic through their Hanafi madhab scholars some of who based in Qatar. Can any Shabab scholars or leaders theorise a political programme apart from enforcing kitab tawheed on all Somalis.
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Rules for me rules for they
On other hand, HSM group living in another country not Somalia talking about elections!!.
Thanks for the post bro. I don't know, AS have gone to extreme violence and harshness that is alien to Somalis.
What has been done is done, but do you think the more moderate Islamic courts union would've been able to establish a balanced Islamic system which takes into account modern global systems?
I just don't get what the west benefited. Its like the same story all over the Muslim world. They were high on crack in the early days of war on terror and went on a mad state building endeavour. They have nothing to show for it in Afghanistan, except 20 years of wasted time, losing trillions whilst propping a corrupt government which in the end they bypassed and made negotiations with the taliban.
Things worked out for Afghanistan, but Somalia the state building in 06 has opened a never ending pandora box...I don't think AS are going anywhere as long as the gov is this useless.
Doubtful. Puntland, Somaliland and other fake clan states will suffer greatly if Xamar falls. Almost all the foreign aid, which what sustains the corpse of Somali society, goes through Xamar. No embassy, no aid. These clan states can’t survive without the capital.
I'm not gonna lie. I'm vehemently against the decision AY took in 06, forcefully or willingly. However, it's true that it stinks of munafiqnimo. This is what I posted before
Post in thread 'Abiy Ahmed visiting Somalia' https://www.somalispot.com/threads/abiy-ahmed-visiting-somalia.177819/post-4264576
Lool man mukhtaar roobow is not a serious guy. If they captured Xamar, and lets say forgave him..he would switch sides in a heartbeat and join their newly formed gov.
If the ICU made Indhocade and Muuse Suudi turn into sheikhs...you best bet maybe that even HSM would switch sides
Anyways, my distaste for the Central gov has got even me questioning my loyalties....imma outta here before things get even more murky lol
LOL
Mogadishu is a 'clan state' itself. Secondly, Puntland doesn't get any aid from the federal government which has been the main point of contention since day 1. Puntland is mostly self-sufficient and has not one, but 2 ports. Additionally, the state taxes its population. This is all very well-documented. I don't know where people get these lies from, that Puntland has ever needed Mogadishu when the federal government itself was initially built and sustained from Bosaso Port.
Foreign aid is politicised and used as a tool to control weaker states, this is no secret.
Ultimately, the people that will suffer most if Mogadishu falls, are the Hawiye clans who have buried their head in the sand.
DalsanJubiland
HartilandWaamoJoore
Most of Middle Shabeel is under AS
Town of Ruunurgood is encircled and locals are saying they will give up fighting
Town of Ruunurgood is encircled and locals are saying they will give up fighting
Puntland were before xamar
.Your argument isn’t without merit, but it flattens a lot of complexity into a neat little package that doesn’t quite hold up under scrutiny. Sure, AQ isn’t what it was in the early 2000s, and yes, Zawahiri was lounging in a Taliban-affiliated house when he got Hellfired into oblivion, but saying AQ is just "chilling" in Afghanistan as if they’re on some sort of indefinite vacation under Taliban babysitting is a bit of an oversimplification. The Taliban’s relationship with AQ has always been more of a calculated balancing act than a straight-up leash, and while AQ central may not be pulling the strings like before, its ideological influence hasn’t evaporated, it’s just taken on a more decentralized, franchised model.
And speaking of franchises, just because groups like JNIM and Shabaab have outgrown AQ in autonomy doesn’t mean they’ve severed their ideological umbilical cord. AQ isn’t running the show, sure, but it laid down the blueprint that these groups are still more or less following, even if they’ve made their own adjustments along the way. The jihadi world doesn’t operate like a strict corporate hierarchy, it’s more of a loose network of like-minded actors adapting to their own regional conditions. So AQ’s decline isn’t as much a downfall as it is a mutation.
Now, about Shabaab, you’re right that they aren’t what they were under Godane when they were carrying out large-scale regional attacks, and no, they don’t have a Jolani-type figure pulling off ideological gymnastics to make them more palatable to the outside world. But let’s not pretend they’re a bunch of rigid medievalists who can’t think beyond Kitab al-Tawheed. They’ve maintained a functional governance structure, collected taxes, enforced a judicial system, and outlasted numerous offensives, which means they clearly understand power beyond just ideological purity. The Taliban were once considered too dogmatic for diplomacy until they weren’t, and history has a funny way of forcing even the most stubborn groups to reassess their options.
And yeah, HTS and the Taliban had theological wiggle room that Shabaab doesn’t seem to have, with the Taliban’s Hanafi scholars giving them space for pragmatism, but let’s not pretend that ideological flexibility is a privilege exclusive to any particular school of thought. Jihadi movements have reinterpreted themselves when survival demanded it, and while there’s no sign of Shabaab heading in that direction right now, assuming they never could is like assuming the Taliban would never negotiate with the U.S. until whoops they did.
So sure, Shabaab isn’t knocking on the UN’s door anytime soon, but history isn’t static. Power struggles, leadership shifts, or just plain old battlefield exhaustion could force them to rethink their playbook, even if they’d never admit it. Betting against ideological rigidity softening over time is usually a safe bet, no matter how loudly the ideologues protest otherwise.
It seems news that 15 Ramadan Alkabaab enter xamar its true!!.
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