Russia-Ukraine War

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GemState

36/21
VIP
I agree with you about the military dynamics in Ukraine, however, the economic trajectory of Russia has dimmed significantly; by the end of this war, Russia's economy will be half of what it is now.
Old post ik but feel I should respond.

Russia has absorbed similar economic shocks before, and the last twenty-five years have shown that its economy can endure serious pain without destabilizing its political foundations. To put the stress in perspective, the estimated 4.5 percent contraction of Russia’s GDP in the three months since the invasion is similar to the early losses during the 2008 global financial crisis and the country’s 1998 financial crisis. And it pales in comparison to the shock from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

In the long run though, Economic Autarky is Russia’s only option at this point. There are alternative sources beyond the EU/US to tap into markets, technology and capital, including in China. But the breadth of the sanctions is such that even Chinese entities if they themselves plan to do business or raise money in the EU/US, will avoid doing business with Russia. U.S. sanctions are notoriously difficult to overturn.

As a result, Russian industry will be left to grow, if it can, by having to depend on only domestic resources. It is quite unlikely to believe that the current impasse in which Russia finds itself can be overcome through different policies. That could have been achieved several years ago, but is no longer an option. Luckily for them, Russia is one of the few countries in the world that can truly engage in autarky.

The causes listed in the imposition of sanctions are manifold, they cover the whole range of Russian policy approaches. They are so comprehensive that no new post-Putin government of any conceivable kind can accept reversing course on them all in order to shed the sanctions. The required fundamental change of behavior can be accepted only by a totally and utterly defeated country.

Now, it is often wrongly asserted that the USSR actively chose a policy of economic autarky back in the 1920s. That is not the case. Russia spent the entire 1920s in pursuit of foreign capital which it wanted to use to rebuild its destroyed industry and, optimistically, catch up with Europe. But that capital was never forthcoming. And since the Soviets had repudiated the debt accumulated by Tsarist Russia, their access to capital markets was shut. This created the situation in which Soviet development had to be conducted entirely based on domestic accumulation and technology. That is how comprehensive planning of the economy turned into a national economic strategy.

In contrast to the 1920s, there is no ideology, short of extreme nationalism, on which an autarkic system can be built today. The Bolsheviks of the 1920s had an ideology which led them ultimately to accept autarky and to work within its constraints. Such an ideology does not exist in today’s Russia.
 
Russia will defeat the Ukrainian nazis and drug addicts in the next few months. Russia already control the east and the south, now they are about to enter the west
 

Libaax-Joore

Beesha haplogroup e-by8081
VIP
Yeah wallahi nobody in Europe cares if Russia takes Ukraine
Wishful thinking ukraine isn’t a small country u can bully this people will fight the Russian til all thier land is lebrate if putin isn’t stop in ukraine he will keep invading former Soviet country…. Russia must be stop in ukraine and restore world order
 

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