It won’t be defeated since Al shabab commands the loyalty and obedience of multiple clans in the south, “defeating them” would have to entail fighting entire clans and that would cause more carnage.
serious question, do you ever see somalia becoming developed in 20 or 30 years?
- Thread starter Leonardo7373
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Bad members of a clan should not justify the judgement on their entire clan, somalis dont retaliate in terms of the individual but retaliate in terms of clan.
AS rules mainly through terror and oppression, most clans don't actually like them. If FGS drop tribalism and promises amnesty then AS will fall apart.
There has already been a lot of carnage. Bomb Jilib and AS will be severely damaged. The dameer HSM however refuses to build up the SNA.
The sun will descend upon us before a Somalia with mildly developed roads.
People throw their lot in with the “bad” members all the time and sympathise with them/support them, even if they’re not involved in the conflict. You are correct in your second point though.
Nope, that’s just wishful thinking. AS doesn’t rule through terror, it rules through the extortion of businesses, and the promise of law and order for the clans who join their cause.
The FGS on the other hand offers no mediation, security or political solutions to clan conflicts, in certain cases it even sides with one clan over another, which leads to the losing clan defecting to AS.
When’s the last time you’ve been to your deegan
Not much different. They rule through threat of violence and intimidate others in order to tax them. In the long run that isn't sustainable.
Which is why that must change. FGS doesn't offer enough housing, food, education, and policing when at least one or two of those alone would be enough to cause AS to lose support.
Housing, education, policing etc comes after you win the trust of people as a viable and honest mediator, that’s one of the duties of a sovereign government. To treat all its citizens with equality or at least maintain a facade of equality. The FGS has failed spectacularly on that front. From playing clans off against each other to sending troops to fight another FMS, the list is endless. And the blame will be placed at the feet of HSM and his ilk.
And the biggest obstacle is not AS but the FGS and how it operates, it’s been turned into little more than a clan fiefdom ran by HSMs relations. That’s why other clans are switching sides or defecting to AS. The FGS is entirely clannish in its dealings and sides with one against the other, that’s not a government.
the root causes of this problem is political and it must be addressed or AS will be in xamar come 2026, and HSM on a plane out to Dubai. Just like what happened to Ghanis government in Afghanistan.
That goes without saying. The rising of living standards can only happen after FGS sorts out its problems with the FMS, unites all Somalis and get full public support. Corruption is ultimately the root cause of all this. Under Farmaajo we saw some positive change happening when he established the anti-corruption committee but then HSM dismantled it and Somalia went back to the top of the corruption index. I am hoping after HSM's term is up (or even better he is forced to resign), that FGS will start the process of reconciliation.
You look at a country like post-Assad Syria and see what its de-facto leader Ahmed Sharaa is doing by uniting all groups and promising to protect the rights of minorities. That is how you get legitimacy. FGS needs to follow suit.
EyiPunter
VIP
If we restructure the Somali society like the Japanese people in 50 years will can rule the horn, but at big sacrifice. It counts first import heavy build equipment for instance we need train system, due to Somali not have well built roads. We need metal process factory. Where we can make our own metal material. We need more labors. We need for structured farmers. We need better road. We need more hospitals. This all can be done if we have business that do these type of work and then we get cheap works from India. We don't want any Africans because they will try to claim our lands. We can deport them after 3-5 with a work visa.
I have lost all hopes of Somalia ever recovering. How is there hope when every president failed in stabilising the country let alone uniting the people. There's still al shabab, clan wars, foreign troops etc. It's cute there's some that have hope, but only have hope in Allah directly turning the country around not Somalis who has failed in every way both in the west and back home. If you see Somalia progressing in the future its is because of Allah not becaise of Somalis. We have become disgraceful and I genuinely feel sorry for our ancestors who fought hard in making Somalia great.
I'm not gonna lie all this doomerism that people on here keep doing feels self-mastrubatory. Anybody who was in somalia in the 2000s understands how hellish it was then. Compared to back then it's night and day. This narrative of "30 years of civil war" "nothing is improving" is a a result of a lack of historical awareness for most people. But their is a small minority on this form that take some sort of sick glee in somalia's situation and think as long as their region is improving that the rest doesn't affect them.
It's certainly developing, slowly but it undeniably is. Even in a smaller city like Bosaso... when I went there during the summers when I was a little boy there was no bottled water (only occasional imports) and we had to drink well water contained in baggies; all electrical power was intermittent and only lasted some parts of the day; and the town was so tiny that you could see the entire night sky come sundown which was beautiful.
When I was there last year at the age of 28? It had probably more than quadrupled in size, being large enough for the night sky to be as bereft of stars as any modern city; they now also had stable power all throughout the city throughout the day; and there were actual local industries begining to burgeon enough for there to be bottled water plants just outside the city and for bottled and treated water to be easily available. What it was like now vs just the 2005-2010 period is night and day. If it keeps up this pace I will once again be taken aback in 10-15 years.
And this is borderline boony town Bosaso. Some of the nicest areas of Xamar or Hargeyso would shock you in terms of their development standard. The houses can be luxurious at a first world standard.
Somalis are a beautifully resilient people, wallahi. Even in the absence of a truly functioning and reliable central government the amount of stuff they've managed to get together and develop deserves a salute. Waa dad gob leh.
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EyiPunter
VIP
I think if we want to move forward
What do all of these countries with higher than 68 have I common? They are all in large inescapable IMF LOAN'S. Except for Eritrea
They should see how Garowe the capital is developing as well
In another thread some time ago i was arguing how Somali towns and cities rarely if never develop into slums the way you see in Ethiopia, Kenya or South Africa.
I showed before and after picture of the city of Borama
This is how it looked like in the late 80s, it was more like a small baren tuulo if anything and hardly populated.
How it looks like in the year of 2020, from facebook.
People don't seem to realize that Somalis did all of this on their own with no real foreign investment or aid money and in the midst of harsh economic sanctions. That's why developments have been slow.
But we are in a better situation now than before the economic sanctions and arms embargo are lifted, they are rebuilding their economic, political and trade ties, there is increase in investments, democratization etc and blue ocean economy and the oil/gas resource revenues
Seeing how small towns can develop into highly populated vibrant cities in just a span of a few years. I don't think it will even take 20 or 30 years for Somalia to be a fully developed country. I said that it will take 10 years and in 5 years we will start noticing the major differences
Somalia is a very low trust country; trust is a fundamental and probably the most important indicator to economic propensity and having developed institutions. So no, it won't happen.
Incorrect. The fact that Somalis score high in trust is what makes us seperate from other Africans
Entrust We Must: The Role of "Trust" in Somali Economic Life
Entrust We Must: The Role of "Trust" in Somali Economic Life
research.cbs.dk
In Somali business success, trust plays a vital role
btw @Shimbiris @Midas
I also forgot to add, the other added advantage Somalia has is that it's economy and resources is largely in the hands of Somalis, if you discount the cut Alshabab makes in it. This is unlike many other African countries like Kenya, South Africa and even Ethiopia who's economy is ran by foreigners. That and also zero debt as a starting point.
It's not an hyper bole to say that the future situation for Somalia looks more hopeful considering this.
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I don’t think that’s gonna happen across the entire diaspora. Places like Minnesota are gonna have a large Somali diaspora for the foreseeable future because of how strong the community is.
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