Somali Government And People Have A Budget Fetish

[DR OSMAN]

16 reactions · 6 comments | 🤣 Galnus. Awalba Deeyow Iyo Xasan sheekh Baa ka mii saaniyad waynaa 🤣 misaniyad puntland 466M, somaliland 400M, galmudug 46M Somalia 379M 🇸🇴 | By Ayub Abdirisak | Facebook

🤣 Galnus. Awalba Deeyow Iyo Xasan sheekh Baa ka mii saaniyad waynaa 🤣 misaniyad puntland 466M, somaliland 400M, galmudug 46M Somalia 379M 🇸🇴

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This seems to be bordering a fetish now, it's also observed in this forum about govt budgets. Govts are not measured on budgets because it's an inaccurate measurement tool and this is why.

1. Their is forecast budgets vs closed budgets. Somalis think forecast budgets are real which is all u ever see in SL or Mogadishu, it's not. Only closed budgets and receipts at the end of year is real. Anyone can forecast what he wants it's their predictions not their actual bank balance and taxation sources receipts.

2. Even if budgets grow year to year this doesn't translate to the economy growing, it can mean they just increased taxation on existing economic sources, this usually bad indicator, as no new sources or market activity increased so to fill the void they increase taxes on existing activity or sources which is very bad.

3. You can't even discuss budgets untill you know the rates being applied across the economic lifelines, they need to present this detailed into items. You can't compare budgets across regions either without knowing what rates are being applied by all regions or your reaching false conclusions. Mogadishu rates are 20 times higher then anything in PL taxation. Just because they forecast larger budgets it's primarily due to how high the tax is not that the market has changed with growth, plus I haven't checked lately but I gave up watching SL and Mogadishu budgets cause it was always predictions not end of year budget closures(that reality), maxaa iga galay some dude wish or forecasts and I've found lots of Somalis buy into it like it's some holy grail.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I hate when Somalis debate on shit and what they debating or preaching isn't even established as a fact but is just usually non factual to begin with.

I sit there dumbfounded with Somalis

 

[DR OSMAN]

I'll give U an example, GM budget is low. Because its taxes could be low or their not taxing at full capacity across all its potential sources, you can't then present your budget and say since mine is bigger I'm better, well let's see U not applying higher taxes and how wide is your taxation sources also then GM first.

I mean what are we arguing about budget forecasts lol, this is predictions for god sakes. I've yet to see SL or Mogadishu close a budget, they all open budgets and give huge predictions and at the end of year U see none closing the budget with receipts for all taxation sources, why? Well maybe it's fake hasn't crossed any of your mind? SL and Mogadishu budgets is always open year to year never closed tho lol, maybe the bank accounts are empty and they can't reconcile it with their forecasted budget.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I'm like this first reconcile your budget with your taxation sources receipts, bank account balances not just have neverending budget forecasts year to year. Plus hurry up, you got 365 days for that budget.

I must admit @Hilmaam must be str8 diasporan thinking if people say something it's actually true his got alot to learn about Somalis anything they say is usually a lie unless proven other wise you can't give them benefit of doubt or assume the best, U assume the worst always and work back or forward from those points.

Heck even puntitequeen knows and said with Somalis take what they say with big grain of salt.

 

[Hilmaam]

I'm like this first reconcile your budget with your taxation sources receipts, bank account balances not just have neverending budget forecasts year to year. Plus hurry up, you got 365 days for that budget.

I must admit @Hilmaam must be str8 diasporan thinking if people say something it's actually true his got alot to learn about Somalis anything they say is usually a lie unless proven other wise you can't give them benefit of doubt or assume the best, U assume the worst always and work back or forward from those points.

Heck even puntitequeen knows and said with Somalis take what they say with big grain of salt.

lol ive never seen u present data, just wild claims based on nonsensical stuff like I visted a city or my grandpa said this . These budget forecast very accurate and their always a year end review done with western partners.

it’s not that hard to predict taxes collected. Somalia is expanding tax base it has good idea of market cap for different sectors it will tax. Look at car deaths in any state I can use previous years data and get pretty accurate numbers for future years based on population growth. Its math and statistics

Finally Somalis budgets very easy to monitor because it’s so low and hits such few industries. Puntland has less than 100m domestic revenue this year a lot of it port. It doesn’t take rocket scientist to monitor and forecast something like this. The other major piece is aid which west allocates in advance so this easy to track to. Somali tax system not that complex and very low you over estimating how complex economy back home is

 

[Hilmaam]

Car deaths Australia statistics will give you pretty good idea what will happen next 3 years. Don’t have to do any complex research for that

 

[Hilmaam]

Fgs budget growth. Ignore the aid price which is almost 60-70% that’s easy to forecast because west tells you. The domestic revenues again mostly port another number easy to predict based on next years tax rate. The income tax mostly govt workers east to predict. Then you have new stuff like VAT which you multiply out based on market size for digital economy very simple. The other licenses and permit taxes consistent year over year . It’s very simple doctor if someone making stuff up for such a tiny budget it will be easy to spot. The little 300-400 million goverments collects can be tracked by anybody it’s to simple of an economy back home

 

[DR OSMAN]

Fgs budget growth. Ignore the aid price which is almost 60-70% that’s easy to forecast because west tells you. The domestic revenues again mostly port another number easy to predict based on next years tax rate. The income tax mostly govt workers east to predict. Then you have new stuff like VAT which you multiply out based on market size for digital economy very simple. The other licenses and permit taxes consistent year over year . It’s very simple doctor if someone making stuff up for such a tiny budget it will be easy to spot. The little 300-400 million goverments collects can be tracked by anybody it’s to simple of an economy back home

I.love your loyalty to the federal govt but it is kinda bordering childish now, go study budget rules worldwide, u open a budget with prediction but u need to close it at end of financial year and reconcile it against your prediction using taxation source receipts and also bank account balances.

Love you bro but you know SL and Mogadishu haven't ever closed a budget since their inception, they all just open it up with great predictions, all I'm.saying hisaab xirka sameeya so we can see what you say is even factual, gee ppl insulting me cause I just want to see end of year budget not beginning of year.

I mean why not do it? unless those bank accounts are empty in SL and Hamar and it's nothing but bloody aid. Heck even with aid prediction you need to close it each year so the real aid received vs the predicted aid is compared(it's called reconciling your budget).something no God damn hawiye or isaaq do.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Puntitequeen needs to please step in and rationalise with @Hilmaam who is very gullible and naive diaspora kid.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Hilmaam Mogadishu and Hargeisa budget have you seen no real political region or heavyweight even talks about it?

Sxb waa budget layska furtay year after year oo aan la xirin weligisa si loo arko hadayba waxay sheegayan uu bank receipt wato at end of year and they know they can't close the budget since their nothing there and bank accounts can't lie. Only spreadsheets and humans can lie.

Heck even puntitequeen doesn't entertain SL and Hamar budget threads each year and just goes about her daily life reminding ppl of majerten kingdom.

Its only you the diaspora kid who doesn't know Somalis are masters of lying and why I created the thread to wake u up so your up to date.

 

[Hilmaam]

I.love your loyalty to the federal govt but it is kinda bordering childish now, go study budget rules worldwide, u open a budget with prediction but u need to close it at end of financial year and reconcile it against your prediction using taxation source receipts and also bank account balances.

Love you bro but you know SL and Mogadishu haven't ever closed a budget since their inception, they all just open it up with great predictions, all I'm.saying hisaab xirka sameeya so we can see what you say is even factual, gee ppl insulting me cause I just want to see end of year budget not beginning of year.

I mean why not do it? unless those bank accounts are empty in SL and Hamar and it's nothing but bloody aid. Heck even with aid prediction you need to close it each year so the real aid received vs the predicted aid is compared(it's called reconciling your budget).something no God damn hawiye or isaaq do.

I am not loyal to fgs. people always want to blame clan for all our problems but i never truly believed that. Read my quote bellow on minumum required goverment budget for a fragile state. the reason our govt doesnt work is because its budget isnt even 30% of a fragile govt. Our failed govt is reflection of our failed economy. Nobody is generating wealth back home. Even Puntland and somaliland most stable states has nothing going for them.Both states each year get hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from west. then they get hudnreds of millinos sent from west. This money is used to import eveything used within country. Guess where all the govt revenue comes?????

From Chat GPT:

Countries with fragile governments, like Somalia, often have per capita government spending between $200 to $500 per person annually. Given that Somalia's population is around 17 million people, a rough estimate would be a minimum budget of $3.4 billion to $8.5 billion annually for basic government functioning.

FGS is proposing 1.4 billion budget not even half of minumum required for fragile states. Of course it’s not hardline but makes sense. 1.4 billion devided by 17 million is 82 per person what services can be provided for so little. If you use the 429 million domestic revenue it drops to 25 bucks

 

[Hilmaam]

the reason govt revenue is easy to calculate is because its all coming from ports for puntland, somaiand and xamar. Its not coincidence the richest states have ports. The ports are also managed by foreigners so there is multiple ways to cross check numbers.

I think you misunderstand when i report the numbers for somaliland puntland and FGS as something to celebrate. Thats not the case I report the numbers to show how pathetic somalia is and that people shouldnt be suprised state its in

The same thing when I do this soil report . Its not to brag on how good somalia is for agriculure but to show how screwed the people are. The same thing when I report on el nino and la nina its to show how climate disaster prone somalia is. When i did report on fish in somalia its to show how incompetent we are that our ocean is being plundered and we cant even take advantage of few resources we have

Somalia Soil Map

Here are the soils types of different areas in Somalia

www.somalispot.com

"Super El Nino" to End The Year

Somalia Fishing

 

[DR OSMAN]

I am not loyal to fgs. people always want to blame clan for all our problems but i never truly believed that. Read my quote bellow on minumum required goverment budget for a fragile state. the reason our govt doesnt work is because its budget isnt even 30% of a fragile govt. Our failed govt is reflection of our failed economy. Nobody is generating wealth back home. Even Puntland and somaliland most stable states has nothing going for them.Both states each year get hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from west. then they get hudnreds of millinos sent from west. This money is used to import eveything used within country. Guess where all the govt revenue comes?????

That's a true fact about PL I don't care much for SL but as for PL it's crazy of them to not develop much faster when the conditions are more favourable then compared to the south, waa qodob jira taasi which I don't ever deny or play word salad with. That's a fail for us because what the south argue if they had even a similar environment to work with, they would be first world a long time ago while you guys have the environment to work in but look no different to Somalia Sourh.

The only response I ever heard to counter it is when PL say their holding back our aid in hamar out of clan hatred so we don't develop and make the Southies fill up with cuqdud.

 

[Hilmaam]

lol you completly misread me. I am opposite of cheerleader I believe somalia future is bleak as it can get. I dont see one saving grace for country. I get hated on alot because people think I am hating because I am from certain regions. But I think every part of somalia screwed.

People want to sell that somalia is tropical paradise rich with oil and uranium. That is only down because outsiders want us down. but you can see somalia what it was like before colonization just scattered people moving around trying to survive harsh terrain. No kingdom lasted long and our population stayed small because of harsh land.

I believe somalia in bad shape because its wasteland thats hard to live on. Even our rivers tiny you cant navigate ships on them due to depth and do trade like other major rivers in the world. Oil is pipe dream that wont happen for decades.

the final nail in the coffin will be when ethiopia refuses to leave this january then people will wake up reality in somalia

 

[DR OSMAN]

That's a true fact about PL I don't care much for SL but as for PL it's crazy of them to not develop much faster when the conditions are more favourable then compared to the south, waa qodob jira taasi which I don't ever deny or play word salad with. That's a fail for us because what the south argue if they had even a similar environment to work with, they would be first world a long time ago while you guys have the environment to work in but look no different to Somalia Sourh.

The only response I ever heard to counter it is when PL say their holding back our aid in hamar out of clan hatred so we don't develop and make the Southies fill up with cuqdud.

The southies also stregthten the argument by saying even in an unfavourable conditions their still developing and showing great resilience and if they even had PL and SL environment stability, they would've been first world by now, so this a shot at us not only as a low class people but also our leaders who are incompetent.

I do study my enemy @Hilmaam and his arguments.

 

[Hilmaam]

That's a true fact about PL I don't care much for SL but as for PL it's crazy of them to not develop much faster when the conditions are more favourable then compared to the south, waa qodob jira taasi which I don't ever deny or play word salad with. That's a fail for us because what the south argue if they had even a similar environment to work with, they would be first world a long time ago while you guys have the environment to work in but look no different to Somalia Sourh.

The only response I ever heard to counter it is when PL say their holding back our aid in hamar out of clan hatred so we don't develop and make the Southies fill up with cuqdud.

Yes its true FGS witholds aid. but even so the money is miniscule. lets say FGS give puntland as much money as Bendadir. It will be 60 million dollar max annualy. This is miniscule amount for state the size of puntland. In america it costs 2-3 millin to build mile of road imagine what it costs in somalia where its way more due to corrpution and having to import everything. maybe you can build 20 mile of road with that. That money wont change anything its drop in bucket for state size of puntland. All the budgets in somalia cannot accomplish anything barely pay overhead and salaries

All the states still do get hundreds of millions even puntland in aid that is not managed by government. its managed by NGO/INGOs who pay for idp camps, education programs, agrcilutre programs. So even alot of the money circulating country is not organically generated but is due to these western agencies spending billions in countires so we dont starve and revert to dark ages. The other billions come from somalis in west slaving. Our economy is fake back home I think situation even worse than what i portray

 

[Hilmaam]

@DR OSMAN

I used to think why is puntland hating on galdogob and not investing in it when i first got into somali politics, but then i started digging deeper and realized its not because of xasidinmo its because funds are so small

this is puntland budget 2023. 97,212,528 is domestic revenue raised by govt. 48 million is outside aid . This how much finance minister manged last year.

the 230 million is the ngo money i told you about managed by western aid agencies

 

[Hilmaam]

@DR OSMAN

I used to think why is puntland hating on galdogob and not investing in it when i first got into somali politics, but then i started digging deeper and realized its not because of xasidinmo its because funds are so small

this is puntland budget 2023. 97,212,528 is domestic revenue raised by govt. 48 million is outside aid . This how much finance minister manged last year.

the 230 million is the ngo money i told you about managed by western aid agencies

View attachment 347524

My last question to you at @DR OSMAN . Puntland and UK are almost same land size this shows how huge of land mass puntland is. What can you expect Deni to do with 145 million dollars? All these breakaway regions like SSC, Makhir, Xariirland acting like Puntland is eating billions of dollars a year if people dug deeper they would know truth is much worse. We not producing anything states economy is one big joke and in turn govt has nothing to draw from. This is true for all of somalia. have you heard phrase cant get blood from a stone. Govt cant tax wealth that isnt there

 

[Hilmaam]

Even siad barre time look how many disasters he dealt with, alot of the govt money and time was spent relocating people and saving lives.

 

[Hilmaam]

Even siad barre time look how many disasters he dealt with, alot of the govt money and time was spent relocating people and saving lives.

View attachment 347526

1975 before graph also had drought disaster. Siad Barre saved many lives. He talks at 11 min mark. Even we had govt country was disaster because of its location and climate

How Somali drought was dealt with in the past