Somalia in 30 years

[Midas]

I've been thinking about somalias situation and comparing it with its neighbors and where somalia could potentially be in the next 20-30 years. It's honestly surprisingly not bad. There is the fact that the Indian ocean trade is increasing and some experts predict that it could grow by up to ten fold by the end of the century.which means eastern africa has the most potneial for economic growth and foreign investment out of all of SSa . Somalia is basically 40% of this coast and has the most number of ports. There is also the fact that building infrastructure in somalia is way easier since where basically just flat land compared to Yemen or ethiopoa which are far more mountainous . A third point is that ethiopia and yemen seem to have deeper fault lines in their society. With ethiopia it's the ethnic groups and with yemen it's the shia/sunni divide. There is also the fact that over next couple decades which the somali govt will have oil money for infrastructure and other public projects. When you add up all of these things somalia's economic development seems almost inevitable over a long term horizon of the next 30 Years.

 

[Idilinaa]

How Somalia develops in the next 30 years really depends on the political stability and the leadership if Somalis can even take advantage of all of that.

Somalia was headed in a good direction until the mid 80s, and was poised to take advantage of it's geography to produce more energy.

This is a compiled list of energy ventures that was planned and in the works to be completed during the 80s: that would have turned Somalia into a ''power nation'': powered by renewable energy.

There is entire list of renewable energy ventures that was supposed be built in the 80s all over the country and that did not materialize unfortunately. They was even exploring Geothermal energy options in northern regions


Project Descriptions

1. Wind Energy Utilization for ElectrIc Power Generation:-'
This project includes the installation of 50 kW.' wind' turbine generators, in Mogadishu and small, remote villages.

Implementation is expected to begin in early 1987.


2. Gesira
Power Station Second 15 MW Steam Turbine:: This is a second 15 MW steam turbine at Gesira, that will ensure sufflcient generating capacity and standby power, allow for maintenance: of. the first steam turbine and the diesel generator. sets without
causing power outages in the city.

Implementation is expected to begin in late 1987.


4. Kismayo - Baidoa Power Project:
This project will provide. expanded and improved electric power to the towns of Kismayo and baidoa, including generation, transmission, distribution, andmetering.

Implementation was begun in 1986.


The Plan also includes the following "supplementary" projects:


10. Balad Micro Hydro:
This wilI be an implementation of the recommendations made in 1982,.

to construct a 1.2 MW hydro power facility at Balad, to generate electric power for the own of Balad and for the Somaltex plant.


13. Power Project:
This is a modernization and expansion of the electric power system for the town of Merka.

14. Photovoltaic Water Pumping:
This project will involve the installation of a 10 kW photovoltaic water;pumping unit at Aray-Moog, near Afgoi. It will be used for the collection of accurate data concerning technical and economic performance of PV and will
supply the surrounding area with water.

6. Merka
Mogadishu Fuelwood Plantations:

This will create asubstantial fuelwood plantation, totalling more than 1000
ha..,* that will yield fuelwood for the Mogadishu area on a sustained basls. It will also contribute to the strengthening of the Forestry Department in the National

8. Rehabilitation of regional electricity, Bosaso, Erigavo, and 2 Gardo:
This project will rehabilitate existing equipment and install new equipment
in the northern towns, designed: to produce a total' of .24 gigawatt hours of electricity after completion. Implementation date is not set.

9. Northern Towns Electrification, Hargeisa, Burao, and'Berber'a:
This project will rehabilitate existing equipment and install
new equipment in the northern towns, designed to produce a total of 15 gigawatt hours of electricity after completion. Implementa* tion date has not been set.


5. Geothermal Exploration and Implementation:

This will continue the preliminary and inconclusive work that was begun several years ago, to both determine the feasibility of using the geo* thermal resources in the northern regions, and, if feasible, to install an initial generating set to supply the town of Berbera
with additional electric power.

Implementation is expected begin in 1987

And this was before the discovery of oil and gas resources and before Solar energy panels was even practical

The 1970s government was pretty much building a foundation for growth, with the most important 3:

• Increase total electricity generating capacity and guarantee more reliable delivery.
• Modernize water processing and delivery system.
• Improve the waste disposal and drainage system in the cities.

Much of this has kinda crumbled now. But it goes to shows you that developments and progress of a society depends on it's leadership.

The potential is there though, Northern Somalia(Waaqoyi) can be a Trade, Logistics and Financial Hub (transhipment hub in the region) and the Eastern(Bari-Makhir) part of the country can be a maritime and fishing hub. The Southern-central part (Koonfur-Waamo) of can be the country's breadbasket.


If all goes well in an ideal scenario like smooth regime change , political stability etc
Somalia in 10-30 years wouldn't look half bad. In 10 years the country can be upper middle income country , and in 20 years it can become very wealthy country with good social indicators.