Somalia seems to be entering a drought worse than 2011 or 2017

[Thegoodshepherd]

The Famine Review Committee is predicting famine in Bur Hakaba and Baidoa districts in October-December. They are fairly sure that rural areas in those two districts will breach the famine threshold, and seem to think it is likely that even the towns of Baidoa and Bur Hakaba may experience famine conditions.

This is incredibly dire. It is hard to imagine how conditions can be so bad that a city as large as Baidoa can be in famine conditions.

https://fsnau.org/downloads/Famine-...in-Baidoa-and-Burhakaba-Districts-Somalia.pdf

 

[bidenkulaha]

The Famine Review Committee is predicting famine in Bur Hakaba and Baidoa districts in October-December. They are fairly sure that rural areas in those two districts will breach the famine threshold, and seem to think it is likely that even the towns of Baidoa and Bur Hakaba may experience famine conditions.

This is incredibly dire. It is hard to imagine how conditions can be so bad that a city as large as Baidoa can be in famine conditions.

https://fsnau.org/downloads/Famine-...in-Baidoa-and-Burhakaba-Districts-Somalia.pdf

Is there an official map of Shabaab vs government control in Bay? I can only see this being the explanation. It seems near impossible to get aid there in enough quantity, at a reasonable cost and in time

 

[warside]

IGAD climate prediction center (ICPAC) is forecasting heavy rainfall in PL & SL from 20 September to 27 September.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Researchers using a forecast USAID's FEWSNET created for the Horn of Africa are predicting that this Deyr (Oct, Nov, Dec) rainy season will fail and that the 2023 Gu (March, April, May) rainy season will also fail. This model is specifically for the Eastern part of the Horn, mostly Somalia and Ethiopia, and it is very predictive.
FORECAST UPDATE – EAST AFRICA LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SIX DROUGHTS IN A ROW

The model is predicting that this Deyr (Oct, Nov, Dec) rainy season will be as bad as in 2010 (beginning of 2011 famine).

Also this past Gu (March, April, May) rainy season was the worst ever in the recorded history of the Horn. This is the worst drought in the history of Somalia. The only that prevented famine earlier this year was effective distribution of food aid.
WHY CHC IS CONFIDENT THE 2022 MARCH-APRIL-MAY DROUGHT IN SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA, AND KENYA WAS THE WORST ON RECORD

 

[warside]

In the next 7 days.

• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Somalia.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected across most parts of the country.

FAO SWALIM:
Over the last two weeks, light to moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somalia, marking the onset of Deyr season. However, many parts of the country remain hot and dry.
The western parts of Somaliland continued to receive good rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over this period include Amoud 162mm, Qulujeed 100mm, Aburin 84mm, Sheikh 81mm and Magalo-Cad 68mm. Bari and Nugaal Regions of Puntland also received scattered rains, with Baran station recording the highest amount of 132mm over the past two weeks. Few areas in the central and southern regions of Somalia received light rains. The rains received so far are however of minimal impact, and the country continues to experience severe drought conditions. The rains are expected to spread in time and space during the coming weeks.

 

[warside]

IMC-Puntland: There's high likelihood of flash floods in Taleex, Xudun in Sool where expected rain could reach 250 mm on 29-30 september.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Forecast for tomorrow

 

[warside]

Cumulative rainfall forecast in the next 7 days.

FAO SWALIM report :
The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received.

 

[warside]

BBC Weather explainer video on the failed rain seasons and what's causing it.

 

[warside]

ICPAC is forecasting moderate rainfall in northern Somalia and wetter than usual conditions, they also forecasting light rainfall and drier than usual conditions over central to southern Somalia.

Rainfall Forecast 11 - 18 October 2022 ​

Total rainfall

• Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over isolated areas of the Somalia-Ethiopia border.
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern Somalia.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over central to southern Somalia.
• Wetter than usual conditions expected over parts of northern Somalia, central to eastern and western Ethiopia.
• Drier than usual conditions predicted over central to southern Somalia.

 

[warside]

ICPAC and FAO SWALIM rainfall forecast 17-25 Oct.

• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over parts of central and northern Somalia.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern and extreme northern parts of the country.

 

[warside]

Heavy rains are forecasted in Hiiraan and Bakool 25 Oct-01 Nov.

• Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) expected over central parts of the country.
• Moderate rainfall (50-200mm) expected over northern and central Somalia.
• Light rainfall (less than 50 mm) expected over southern and northern parts of the country.

 

[warside]

FAO SWALIM report 25-Oct

The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth.

Somalia Rainfall Forecast Issued: 25 October 2022
The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.
This update is produced by the: FAO - Somalia Water and Land Information Management—SWALIM Project.

 

[Dima&Damo]

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

FEWSNET is again projecting famine in 2023. It is projecting that Baydhabo, Bur Hakaba and Mogadishu IDPs will be in famine conditions by April-June of this year.
As deaths continue to accumulate despite assistance, Somalia is projected to face Famine in 2023

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Waiting For Rain in Somalia

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Climate Hazards Center is again predicting a sixth season of drought, the longest in the history of the Horn. This is has never happened before. This drought is worse than 2011 and 2017 by a huge margin. I don't understand why Somali politicians are not talking about this all of the time.

UPDATED CLIMATE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BELOW-NORMAL 2023 MARCH-APRIL-MAY RAINS LIKELY IN EASTERN HORN OF AFRICA

Five consecutive failed rainy seasons. It will take a long time for the Horn to recover from this.

 

[Dagdag]

This would be devestating for developed country. If this keeps up seems like recipe for state collapse for us. will be major losses of livestock in Somalia and Ethiopia. Need food aid and preparation to prevent famine

The current reoccurrence of 3 consecutive La Niña is a record and statistically we should hopefully see an El Niño next year which equates to wetter season in east Africa . Vs La Niña which causes dryer season and drought in east Africa

 

[bidenkulaha]

This would be devestating for developed country. If this keeps up seems like recipe for state collapse for us. will be major losses of livestock in Somalia and Ethiopia. Need food aid and preparation to prevent famine

The current reoccurrence of 3 consecutive La Niña is a record and statistically we should hopefully see an El Niño next year which equates to wetter season in east Africa . Vs La Niña which causes dryer season and drought in east Africa

There’s much hope of improvement. This year a lot of aid has went into developing resistance. I know in Galmudug, a lot of water wells have been drilled. This was last week in Guriceel where 4 wells have been dug in the city centre and surrounding areas


Same in Cadaado district


It’s unfortunate of course for those under or near Shabaab control as it’s much harder for them to have access to water or their farms/livestock or hayadaha samafalka like IOM etc with the support of local investment to invest in underwater drilling

 

[Dagdag]

There’s much hope of improvement. This year a lot of aid has went into developing resistance. I know in Galmudug, a lot of water wells have been drilled. This was last week in Guriceel where 4 wells have been dug in the city centre and surrounding areas


Same in Cadaado district


It’s unfortunate of course for those under or near Shabaab control as it’s much harder for them to have access to water or their farms/livestock or hayadaha samafalka like IOM etc with the support of local investment to invest in underwater drilling

glad to see government being more proactive instead of scrambling last minute . Will have work cut out for them it’s hard to replace a whole rainy season.