It's more relevant for countries that don't have oil or gas resources to export, to create a manufacturing based economy, to grow the economy and gain capital.
The fast development of Ethiopia
- Thread starter MalcolmFitzhugh08
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It's more relevant for countries that don't have oil or gas resources to export, to create a manufacturing based economy, to grow the economy and gain capital.
They have rivers, and at the end of the day they have enough allies who they can buy said resources from, theyre 110 million people and are becoming a manufacturing powerhouse which is how most dominant economies came into fruition.
For sure. When country gets about as big iran pouplation wise (80million+) . oil can only keep it somewhat propped up. But it can't generate huge growth.
They have rivers lmaao. They are a agricultural based economy , that cannot even feed itself.
Ethiopia has had allies for centuries that literally spoonfed it with expertise, technology and money & yet nothing improved, let alone did it achieve industrialization.
The potential is there however but the leadership and collective mentality is setting it back.
Both nigeria and the congo have more people. A big pouplation isn't enough. Plus out of all the big countries with at least 100 million people. Ethiopia has the worst geography. Most of the country is very mountainous and it's also in those mountainous regions where most of the pouplation is concentrated. If it ever wants to really develop or industrialize it's gonna be extermely expensive to develop the necessary infrastructure.
If Ethiopia recognizes this , they can actually overcome it by investing in emerging technologies , systems and infrastructure appropriate for it's mountainous regions. But yeah it's probably going to be super expensive.
It is often understood that life in the mountains always lag behind the plains for key reasons:
Although there is a paucity of empirical data, most of the world's mountain people live below the poverty line. Of the more than 7 million people that dwell in the Andes, most are poor and live under harsh and inhospitable conditions. At least 118 million people struggle to survive using dwindling resources from agricultural fields, pastures and forests in the Himalayas (Denniston, 1993). Of the 18 countries and regions identified by the United Nations as in desperate need of humanitarian assistance, 11 are mountainous (E. Byers, unpublished). Furthermore, both life expectancy at birth and literacy rates tend to be lower in the mountains than in the lowlands of developing countries.
Economic development in mountainous regions lags behind development in the lowlands for a variety of reasons including limited opportunities for education and skill development and consequent dependence on land; migration to the plains and cities; relative economic isolation, partly because of limited access and the high cost of developing infrastructure facilities; and limited investment in the development of technologies appropriate to moun-tainous areas.
As a result, hunger and malnutrition remain chronic in many mountainous developing countries. Food security - the physical and economic access to food for all people at all times - depends not only on the availability of food, but on its affordability. A key strategic inter-vention to ensure food security in the mountains is to provide economic opportunities and avenues for the poor to make more money by low-impact and highly sustainable development programmes.
Perh
That's not really an option for ethiopia since most of the plains/lowlands in ethiopia are the somali region and these lowlands are a lot drier .
The lowlands has the shabelle river and its tributaries irrigating the semi-arid land. So even they might be heading towards food self-sufficiency sooner than the highlands from what i've seen. The bigger advantage is that the flat geography allows for distribution and connectivity, so it can get to regions where resources are scarce.
Most African economies are agriculturally based; that point is literally meaningless. Kenya's economy is also agriculturally based, yet their GDP per capita is $2,000. Are they fluffing their numbers too? Ethiopia, with 126 million people and a $160 billion economy—which is still pathetically low for its population—has a GDP per capita of $1,300, almost double Somalia's. Is this the number you're claiming is fake and must be lower? When China and the IMF are loaning them tens of billions, do you think they don't do their own verification on Ethiopia's economic metrics? They expect a return on their loans and that won't happen if the country they're loaning to doesn't have the capacity to ever pay it back. You're grasping at straws to justify how much Somalia has fallen behind its neighbors.
The GERD dam is a massive infrastructure project managed by an underdeveloped country that has never undertaken anything of its scale before. It’s no surprise that it’s over budget and has faced delays; this also happens in practically every major construction project undertaken by the West. What’s your solution—forego the megawatts of electricity potential and the ability to control the flow of the Nile River with all its geopolitical benefits? It’s already producing electricity and will effectively double the country's electricity generation once it’s fully online. This is a major W for Ethiopia and you can see it by how mad Egypt is about it, even if it cost 20 billion it would still be a W.
Their current GDP per capita is $1,300, less than half of what you stated. They're also currently investing in light industry such as textile production. They're literally in the middle of a transition towards light manufacturing. By 2035-2040, ya'll will probably say they are only manufacturing textiles and other light industry products and will never transition to heavy industry. Keep burying your heads in the sand as Ethiopia and Kenya leap ahead of us while we have pretty disputes between our babysat Federal government and clan fiefdoms. I'm sure that will work out well for us in the longterm.
They experienced several years of 10% growth during the 2000s and for the rest of this century, have fluctuated between 5% and 8%. Ethiopia was the world's poorest country around the turn of this century, even poorer than civil war-stricken Somalia, so they were starting from a much lower base than China at the beginning of this century. Hence the disparities in outcome between Ethiopia's and China's growth.
All countries, when developing, start with a few regions or cities and gradually expand outward from there. For Ethiopia, these zones of development are Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. You can also see this in China, where coastal cities and regions have reached near first-world standards of income and development, while the interior of the country remains closer to the China of 2001. It takes decades to become a developed country, and both Ethiopia and Kenya are making swift progress on their path. While you nacas ass people only see the Ethiopia of today, but are unable to see where it'll end up if it keeps up this trajectory. Maybe we deserve the bleak future we're headed towards.
Btw, are you aware that while we were in a civil war, they took the opportunity to dam the Shabelle and Juba rivers? They now almost have the capacity to control our water flow and determine how much water we receive. They'll soon be able to cause a drought by withholding water and drying up our rivers before they reach the ocean, or release a large amount of water to cause flash floods at will. We're fucked in a manner you guys don't even have the capacity to consider wlh. See how well Iraq is doing since Turkey damed up it's rivers, that's what Somalia's future entails.
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I see a lot of people whose only hope is to wait until Somalia starts pumping oil. I'd hate to envision a future for Somalia similar to Saudi Arabia—a country that lacks a diversified economy, industrial expertise, and employment opportunities for its large and young population. A country whose economy is tied to the fluctuations of the oil and gas market and doesn't produce much of value beyond extracting oil from the ground. Rather than aspiring to be like a Germany or Japan, with a complex and diversified economy, advanced industries, and an educated, skilled citizenry capable of producing everything from cars to fighter planes, chemicals, medicine, computer chips, nuclear power plants, space rockets and submarines. There's nothing that makes it fundamentally impossible for Somaliweyn to have the economic and technological relevance of a Germany or Japan, either we aim for their standards or become just another glorified gas station of a country.
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Firstly other African countries are not creating fake outlandish exaggerated growth rates.
China and IMF relies on stats produced by the countries government, they don't make independent assessments of their own of it. It's usually done by economists apart from them.
Secondly because it's agricultural it's fairly easy to check it and the fake stats fall apart, because we know they aren't exporting much of anything other than agricultural products.
So how are they producing enough agricultural products when they are suffering from chronic drought, food shortages, famine and have to rely on aid?
''but agriculture is a tricky sector whose output is not easy to lie about''
And how are they having such exponential high agricultural output , especially so much more than Kenya whose agricultural sector is more advanced. 66% kulaha lmaao
You can buy into this fabrications all you want to suck it to Somalia. While millions of Ethiopians are in risk of starving to death , show them the 160 billion dollar GDP they can cook it and eat it and feel good they are doing better than Somalia after they pass away.
You can show them paper stats that they earn 1.300 dollars per capita and that can make them forget they are living the worst abject poverty
It all failed . And they lost billions. And its precisely because they are an underdeveloped country.
. It all so damaged and disrupted the they life of many Ethiopians because they didn't take into account the cost and socio-economic and environmental impacts it would have on the surrounding areas building it. To the point people are facing an extinction.
So it's not a major W. It's typical vanity project that doesn't take into account it's citizens needs
I have adressed the GDP per capita part, which is absoulutely bogus.
It's china and other countries outsourcing textile production to Ethiopia as a cheap source for almost a decade now, so it's not a new development. Those same countries also flood the market with cheaper textile goods that out compete the local markets.
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The average Ethiopian gets payed pennies by foreign owned companies. They often go unpaid and are abused.
Global fashion brands accused of exploiting, abusing workers in Ethiopia | Africanews
Workers in PVH supplier factories in Ethiopia are reportedly forced to do unpaid overtime and lose pay for drinking water at their work stations, according to the U.S.-based Workers Rights Consortium
www.africanews.com
On top of allowing foreign companies underpay and abuse they don't really do much to protect local markets so they are in 4.4 billion trade deficit.
Textile manufacturers struggle as illegal "bonda" clothing floods market - Capital Newspaper
Ethiopia’s textile manufacturers are facing a growing crisis as they struggle to compete with the widespread distribution of “bonda” clothing—second-hand garments that are flooding the market at low prices. The Ethiopian Textile and Garment Manufacturers Association has raised alarms about the...
capitalethiopia.com
We aren't hoping to wait until Somalia starts pumping oil. Especially me and @Three Moons who have at length spoken about Somalia's economic direction and growth potential:
Some of the posts @Three Moons have made
2017 - 2023 saw Somalia hit several major milestones for the resuscitation of the Somali state including the SCAA, the debt-relief, the lifting of the arms-embargo, etc but the 2024 - 2028 period will be the most interesting years that will either make or break Somalia for the future decades and generations to come. I will use this thread to update about new milestones and targets;
2024 - 2028 - Somalia
Electrification rate 75% -would enter the Top 20 percentile of Africa. A 100% rate could be achieved if Somalia took advantage of the various renewable energy funds available like the World Bank Clean Energy Initiative.
SPI performance (80-100) -
Urbanisation rate -
Deepwater ports -
Road network -
Digital economy -
GDP -
GDP Growth rate - 3.7% annually today, expected to be 4.3% in 2028, which would make
Population - based on the current growth rate
If this and other milestones are being achieved in just the next four years, can you imagine where the country will be in the next 10 to 15 years with peace?
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (OCTOBER 2023) 15 INDICATORS, 1980 - 2028
Some of the posts i have made about Somalia's investments in renewable energy and its blue ocean economy
People in Somalia have already started to implement renewable energy measures and this is without direct heavy investment from the government that major projects require
You can expect this to grow and expand once the government roles out it's investment plan to boost the energy sector targeted to reach 2030.
Energy - Somalia Investment Promotion Office
Energy Sector Relies on fuel wood and charcoal, and imported petroleum to meet its energy needs. Overview Zones Oppurtunities Major Investors Documents Gallery Energy Sector Somalia’s economy is growing and needs affordable energy to continue developing. The National energy deficit in the...sominvest.gov.so
There are already energy companies throughout the country that is investing in renewable energy and installing wind turbines and solar panels, solar stations.
And Somalia will never become like Saudi, because of its geography and different resources it posses, it will just develop a diversified economy by default. The wealth drawn from natural resources will be invested to build human capital and industries.
Saudi's hand is forced to rely on it because its entirely desert region with not much resources other than oil.
Puntland alone has a lot natural resources that can generate wealth , the oil and gas resources is just a drop in the bucket.
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Somalias biggest advantage and what makes stand out from other countries is that were s country led by a private sector who takes the initiative to do things and is self reliant. This is extremely rare. One of the persistent problems countries all over the world but especially in southeast asia have ran into is that they will have good public policy but the private sector is not responding. I suspect some of these african leaders who want somali buisnessman to come to their country is because of this.
Also you cannot say its because of the Tigray War either after what i explained above, its been a persistent issue in Ethiopia
Compare this to Somalia who before the IMF restructuring programs , in the aftermath of Ogaden war in 1978 and a burgeoning refugee crisis was producing enough food to sustain their population and was virtually self-sufficient. The aftermath of the war revealed to true size of the agricultural sector.
406 USD in 1978 would be 2000 USD per capita in today's money adjusted for inflation.
What they were earning was on top free education, free health care and subsidized/affordable housing.
I actually think Somalia's GDP per capita might be higher or closer to that now , but they haven't done a rebase to know for sure.
Somalia's GDP is many times higher than what it is currently is shown to be , the current 34 Billion GDP PP. Because they are using year 1991 as a base year but this is when the economy plummeted to less than 1 billion after a collapse of the govt.
Which is insane because there are many new industries and markets that didn’t exist in the past before 1991
But If you look at simply mobile money transfer in Somalia it's 34 billion which is equivalent to economies with 100 billion GDP like Kenya. Mind you Somalia has a way lower population.
This is not an aspect you can falsify and can idicate the size of the economy, so much money transitions is happening monthly but we are meant to believe that per capita it's less than 1000. A country with a GPD per capita of $500 could never have the same monthly mobile transactions ($2.7 billion in 2018) as Kenya or Ghana nor be the main trading partner of all of its neighbours.
When they do rebase as well that will factor in the new industries and markets it will suprise many. They have done a rebase in other African countries like Kenya or Ghana which showed an upgraded reality of their economy and GDP
How to boost GDP stats by 60%
In 2010, Ghana announced a 60% increase in GDP estimates and Nigeria may soon follow suit. How do such miraculous rises come about?www.bbc.com
Understanding Ghana’s rebased GDP - CNBC Africa
After a rebasing exercise that changed the base year from 2006 to 2013, Ghana's GDP expanded by 25 per cent to $52 billion dollars, making the West African country the 6th largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa.www.cnbcafrica.com
Might make a thread on this later.
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That lack of private sector approach and activity is why foreign multi-national corporations and foreign companies dominate most African countries. Even here you would start to see how misleading the GDP stats can be because they are exporting the wealth that's generated out of Africa and this is also similar for some parts South Asia. Either that or they become outsourcing for cheap labor which involves major abuses, exploitation and lack of pay.
With Somalia it's different where agriculture, livestock , natural resources, energy, telecom, trade, factories, micro-industries, banking and others are domestically owned.
Plus Dahabshil is not the only major multi million dollar- billion dollar companies in Somalia. Include major shipping and logistics companies like Sahliya and Barwaaqo to this list.
I looked up the articles on Ethiopia exaggerating its economic growth, and they were almost all written by the same J. Bonsa. This is someone who clearly opposes Ethiopia's repressive, dictatorial government and favors a transition to liberal democracy. So, you want me to disregard the data provided by Ethiopia, that the World Bank, the IMF, and China trusts enough to give out loans, in favor of someone who is clearly ideologically biased against Ethiopia's system of governance, and therefore has reason to downplay or reject any positive strides it makes?
It is a fact that Ethiopia's economy has grown significantly. Whether it has grown to the extent they claim? Who knows for sure. Some economists I follow seriously doubt China's economic figures. There's naysayers for the figures of every economy. In the end, my uneasiness about the growth of Ethiopia and Kenya stems from the fact that as they grow more quickly than Somalia (5-6% growth, while we average half that), we have a government that is incompetent in everything it does, unable to make up lost ground. It can't even print currency correctly or set interest rates—the most basic tasks of a country's central bank. We could eventually reach a point where the economic power imbalance might be nearly impossible to overcome, like the situation between Greece and Turkey. What were once similarly matched economies in total output has now transitioned into one overshadowing the other. Larger economy means more revenue, which means more money to purchase military hardware, and more money to dedicate to geopolitical objectives at the cost of another country. Not a fun position to be in for the smaller economy.
The growth in Ethiopia's agricultural sector is driven by cash crops like coffee. They disproportionately invest in these crops because they account for the majority of their export revenue, and therefore Food crops take a back seat. Notice the writer of the article you quoted ignored cash crops completely and only focused on food crops.
As an example coffee alone makes up more than 30% of their annual agricultural exports, totaling over $1 billion annually. Their exports of this bean have increased consistently also, it went from 700 million in 2018 to 1.5 billion in 2023, a more than 100% increase in 5 years. The steady growth of exported goods and services also closely corroborates with high GDP growth. This data point is very hard to exaggerate since it's essentially tracking trade volume between countries compared to self stated GDP growth.
This article you posted is talking about vanity projects, as they state "Public money is being spend lavishly on city parks, resorts, and museums" and another quote "In terms of budget, the biggest current government project is not a mega-infrastructure project, as one might expect; it is a palace complex with a price tag of over US$10 billion". They're not talking about the GERD being wasteful which cost 4.2 billion for comparison. It's a mega-infrastructure project with major returns, they're using it as a comparison to show how much it cost, vs what they're spending on vanity projects with questionable returns. So quick to argue against my point your not even reading what your sharing.
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Fast development of *Addis Ababa.
FTFY.
FTFY.
Our private sector takes the initiative to do things and are self-reliant because they have no choice but to be, we barely have a functioning state. Just look at what Somali entrepreneurs are doing across East Africa. Hass Petroleum is a multi billion dollar Somali company that's based in Kenya.
Uganda uses Somali investors to build factories that can't be financed in Somalia due to our pathetic governments incompetency.
Other countries are taking advantage of our peoples enterprising spirit and business acumen while in Somalia all of our businesses have to operate with one hand tied behind their backs because of our lack of effective governance.
It's not just him, most of the critic comes from Ethiopians of all walks of life. Here is an Ethiopian intellectual ''Professor Alemayahu'' completely bewildered by it. The Ethiopian government just farts out fake GDP growth stats and no one buys it.
If you even look at it's exports on what it reports, it doesn't even make much sense either.
Their Agricultural total export revenue is 3.3 billion and coffee made up 1.5 billion of that. The rest being sesame and fresh cut flowers.
While Uganda agricultural export revenue is around 3.9 billion. This is the same country that had net 0 yield increase with an economy of a reported 40 billion in GDP.
Also with GDP it factors in how much you also produce for domestic consumption and purchase as well, they are in no way meeting the subsistence threshold for that either with all the food shortages and famines.
There is no way you can rationalize that type of growth rate.
GERD is included in that.
The article said: ''For comparison, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) – a hydroelectric dam expected to produce 5,000 megawatts of electricity once completed – is expected to cost US$4.2 billion. Even in ordinary circumstances, for a country of Ethiopia’s size and development needs, the wisdom of spending such huge sums on projects with minimal economic returns is highly questionable.''
and it further said: ''These outlays are even more perplexing in the face of recent budget cuts to several sectors, including education and new infrastructure projects. Regional states are struggling to pay the salaries of government employees. In some cases, public school teachers have gone months without pay. The reconstruction of regions destroyed by civil war has also taken the back seat while more money is being poured into military hardware.
From their website ''Strategically located predominatly in Central and South Somalia''
Other countries aren't taking advantage out of Somalis entrepreneurial spirit. Most of these companies invest not only in other African countries but also in Somalia and all the revenue usually shipped into areas of Ethiopia, Somaliland , Somalia and Kenya where Somalis live.
You mentioned Somaliland and Amina Hersi or the sucessful businesses in other African countries.
Somalis actually own business in more than one country, so the people who invest in Somali enclaves in Kenya, South Africa and Dubai also invest in Businesses in Somalia/Somaliland and Ogaden
There are many factories and businesses being opened in Somalia. I can list them all for you if you want , anything from diary & cheese factories, beverages, pharmaceutal manufacturers, cement, poultry , fish, boats, paper etc.
There is also major projects being built in Mogadishu that will dwarf those towers built in Kenya by Hass
Like Dahab towers
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