The geopolitics of Somalia.

[Jinchuriki]

Let's start with southern Somalia. They have two major rivers, Jubba and Shabelle. Ethiopia holds a leverage over us since our rivers originate from Ethiopia. Even if Somalia manages to successfully re-capture the Somali region that is currently occupied by Ethiopia. The source of these rivers originate from the Oromia region (Bale mountains).

The Socotra islands which is right near to Somalia is controlled by Yemen and they are much further away from the islands than Somalia. In the future, it could pose a big threat if Somalia doesn't annex the islands or else Yemen can establish a military base in the future which would remain as a security threat to Somalia's mainland and could possibly affect our trading routes.

Kenya is taking advantage over Somalia's instability by claiming an area of sea in the south because that area is where oil is found and it's located between the black line which the U.N gave and it's an equal line but the green line is Kenya being greedy.

To avoid this is by annexing NFD including the Lamu region. This will not only Grant us more sea in the south but also, give us extra oil.

Now the only solution for Somalia to survive from these problems is to do it by force. Remember, the most powerful nations done it by force so Somalis must follow that step.

1. The jubba and shabelle rivers only go through two parts of the region.

2. Socotra is both geographically and historically part of Somalia. But, when it comes to demograpics it is 100% yemeni, no point of annexing a island filled with khat chewers when we are struggling with khat ourselves. Yemen is not chaning anytime soon because they sold this Island to UAE as a military base. Yemen has a shit economy and their dinar is shitter than our shilling.

3. Kenya argues about the the maritime border, its fuckin stupid for Kenya because the like of the border is heading towards southeast and their ideal is west. Annexing lamu is more diffcult without gorrilla warfare tatics. Because kenya has support of all african and many non african countries. You may say al shabaab can do it. Actually they only do ambush methods of using the main army to be reserves and use 10 men as decoy to fight the army.

4. Invading Ethiopia is the worst decision any man would do. You know the ethiopian army has anti tank missiles, anti aircraft missiles, latest cars for militaries given from the U.S, these artillery is in mekelle city in the tigre region. The only that this could work is to weaken Ethiopia economically like how U.S did to Iran by sanctions and less trade. Then raid, because they will be less soliders getting paid to do work.

 

[The Gadabursi Nomad]

1. The jubba and shabelle rivers only go through two parts of the region.

2. Socotra is both geographically and historically part of Somalia. But, when it comes to demograpics it is 100% yemeni, no point of annexing a island filled with khat chewers when we are struggling with khat ourselves. Yemen is not chaning anytime soon because they sold this Island to UAE as a military base. Yemen has a shit economy and their dinar is shitter than our shilling.

3. Kenya argues about the the maritime border, its fuckin stupid for Kenya because the like of the border is heading towards southeast and their ideal is west. Annexing lamu is more diffcult without gorrilla warfare tatics. Because kenya has support of all african and many non african countries. You may say al shabaab can do it. Actually they only do ambush methods of using the main army to be reserves and use 10 men as decoy to fight the army.

4. Invading Ethiopia is the worst decision any man would do. You know the ethiopian army has anti tank missiles, anti aircraft missiles, latest cars for militaries given from the U.S, these artillery is in mekelle city in the tigre region. The only that this could work is to weaken Ethiopia economically like how U.S did to Iran by sanctions and less trade. Then raid, because they will be less soliders getting paid to do work.

Invading Ethiopia is retarded... Right now. Ethiopia will definitely be in a cival war in 10 years top. Most likley 5 years. Too many ethnic groups pissed at the TPLF and at other ethnicities. Especially the Oromos. It will still be stupid for Somalia to invade throught. We will literally kill off the entire country if we they do. In 1977, our economy went to shit when we invaded Ethiopia at a civil war state mind you. Imagine in 5 years doing that?! Its a suicide mission, even if Somalia does get Ogaden.

 

[Jinchuriki]

Invading Ethiopia is retarded... Right now. Ethiopia will definitely be in a cival war in 10 years top. Most likley 5 years. Too many ethnic groups pissed at the TPLF and at other ethnicities. Especially the Oromos. It will still be stupid for Somalia to invade throught. We will literally kill off the entire country if we they do. In 1977, our economy went to shit when we invaded Ethiopia at a civil war state mind you. Imagine in 5 years doing that?! Its a suicide mission, even if Somalia does get Ogaden.

If Somalia invaded Ethiopia we would be like Iraq in the 80s when they invaded Iran. Infact we taught these Arabs to do shit like this and causes us and them to f*ck up. Look at iraq never ending war.

 

[The Gadabursi Nomad]

If Somalia invaded Ethiopia we would be like Iraq in the 80s when they invaded Iran. Infact we taught these Arabs to do shit like this and causes us and them to f*ck up. Look at iraq never ending war.

If Somalia invaded Ethiopia, we would another Yugoslavia.

 

[Jinchuriki]

If Somalia invaded Ethiopia, we would another Yugoslavia.

Damn straight

 

[Farm]

Invasions are old school, you fund rebels and cause proxy wars these days.

 

[Jinchuriki]

Invasions are old school, you fund rebels and cause proxy wars these days.

Thats too old nigga that shit used in cold war, you do shit that way better its a coup d'etat.

 

[Shaolin23]

If Somalia invaded Ethiopia we would be like Iraq in the 80s when they invaded Iran. Infact we taught these Arabs to do shit like this and causes us and them to f*ck up. Look at iraq never ending war.

Iraq fell into a US/Israeli trap but to be honest it was a lose-lose situation if they didn’t try to crush Iran right away the Shi’a revolution would surely have spread into Iraq and overthrow Saddam in a civil war

 

[Von]

Even if Ethiopia shut off the major rivers, we have smaller tributaries that start and end in Somalia, we could turn them into fully matures rivers, and link them together, plant trees to lower the temperature/fix the soil. we have a large amount of groundwater and the largest coastline for desalination and we have a lower population than our neighbours. When Somalia controls Somalia our neighbours will realise they have no influences over us, culturally, politically, religiously or economically.

We are not Egypt or Syria would depend on others, I can't wait till there is a geopolitical shakeup

 

[SomaliWadaniSoldier]

How do u want to achieve that without unity?
First we must unite behind one leader. Abolish all clan based enclaves.
After that, Somalis from all regions must bring warriors to the army. We need atleast 100K army, more is welcome.

This time we wont invade NFD or Ogadenia, but we arm the insurgency(ONLF) in secret. If the insurgency succeeds , and NFD/Ogadenia gets their independence. They can choose between uniting with us or being a friendly neighbouring Somali States functioning as bufferzones from the Xabashis and Kikuyus.

When we are truly regional power then we can annex NFD/Ogadenia by saying " our Somali brethren are oppressed, they sought our assistance". Russian Style.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Jubaland is the only region that matters in Somalia geopolitically or economically.
There is more arable land in Badhaadhe district alone than in all of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, Bay and Bakool put together. That is real natural wealth in a lot of arable land. Afmadow and Kismayo districts have even more arable land than Badhaadhe.

Somalia has 17 cubic km of renewable freshwater each year. 5.7 cubic km of that 17, 33% of all the water in Somalia, is the flow of the Juba river each year. If you add in the rainfall, more than half of Somalia's renewable water is in Jubaland. The geopolitics of Somalia basically revolve around water and how we will negotiate with Ethiopia for it in the future. It will also revolve around who gets to farm the Juba valley. The Colorado river is only double the size of the Juba, yet it irrigates 4 million acres of land. The Juba has the potential of irrigating around 2 million acres of land, or 8,000 sq km. Jubaland and the Juba valley are Somalia's California and is where the future of the country will take place, the rest of the country is a shithole.

 

[SomaliWadaniSoldier]

Yes! I have seen the light! Somaliland recognition won't come so it's time to unite with our fellow Somalis!

@waraabe listen to ur cousin

 

[Jinchuriki]

Iraq fell into a US/Israeli trap but to be honest it was a lose-lose situation if they didn’t try to crush Iran right away the Shi’a revolution would surely have spread into Iraq and overthrow Saddam in a civil war

The story was like this, Iraq was doing quite well in the 70s. They had a crazy baa'thi beilef because just like us, a place filled with pure arabs in Ahwaz and western Iran lands were taken and the long nosed fire worshipping persians gumaayised their original dhul.

Saddam just like siyaad ask America for weapons to invade Iran, And like siyaad used every damn thing to destory his enemy. This was in the 80s, around 20 years before saddam died.

America ask Saudi to build a base north of dammam. They did and it was in operation until after the invasion. After the invasion it really made the economy depressed, same case like Somalia in 1980s. Some people danced but the workers in banks were crying.

 

[Jinchuriki]

Jubaland is the only region that matters in Somalia geopolitically or economically.
There is more arable land in Badhaadhe district alone than in all of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, Bay and Bakool put together. That is real natural wealth in a lot of arable land. Afmadow and Kismayo districts have even more arable land than Badhaadhe.

Somalia has 17 cubic km of renewable freshwater each year. 5.7 cubic km of that 17, 33% of all the water in Somalia, is the flow of the Juba river each year. If you add in the rainfall, more than half of Somalia's renewable water is in Jubaland. The geopolitics of Somalia basically revolve around water and how we will negotiate with Ethiopia for it in the future. It will also revolve around who gets to farm the Juba valley. The Colorado river is only double the size of the Juba, yet it irrigates 4 million acres of land. The Juba has the potential of irrigating around 2 million acres of land, or 8,000 sq km. Jubaland and the Juba valley are Somalia's California and is where the future of the country will take place, the rest of the country is a shithole.

Accounting the dagal between Ogadeen vs Marexaan vs Madowweyne is gonna mess us all.

 

[Waarya]

Those sacks of shits! They know our people are starving and they have the urge to do that to us?! Wallahi I hope the Oromos merk the TPLF. Those bastards deserve it.

Why should they care about us when we don't care about ourself?

This is geopolitics, fittest of survival. Somalia has security threats in all corners with its neighbours which we cannot ignore. It's best to be aware about it and ready for the possible future.

I never said let's start a war automatically. Of course, unite the country, develop it and build a powerful army then we can secure our national rights.

Now you've said some incorrect things. In 1977, Somalia would've won if the Soviet Union and their communist allies didn't intervene. If Somalia was in a good shape and invaded Ethiopia again then their European masters won't save them this time. On top of that, we won't get sanctions for it because Ethiopians refused the referendum offer in the past which was a peaceful solution conducted by the U.N but Ethiopia has a history of rejecting it making the invasion legal.

f*ck invading directly, just rebuild the country and then dump a shit ton of cash and equipment on the onlf. That way there will be less eye balls on the whole situation.

 

[gurey]

Whats this obssession with socotra? Is it because its close to somalia? Yemen is closer to somalia than socotra. Its weird stop it.

We shouldnt invade ethiopia outright. But definitely fund rebel movement that will deny raw meat eating dogs uncontested slaughter of somalis. This way it just becomes like eastern ukrain.