There is no candidate that looks optimistic for the next Somalia election

[𐒋𐒖𐒆𐒔𐒖𐒕𐒈]

What are you looking for in a political leader in .So's current state? What is the criteria?

I could think of three:

• Keep the nation's cohesiveness intact; if you lose the public, there is no going anywhere. Check HSM vs his predecessor,
• Avoid political disagreements (this requires astute skill),
• Continue making small, but gradual progress, in institution building, security, and economy in that order of priority.

No foreign born is fit to take on the challenge, or qualified to comprehend the inner machination of .So politics, unless he has been rehabilitated. Graduate education, whilst helpful, is not requisite for success in politics.

Two men pop to mind. For me to know, for you to find out!

 

[therandomone]

The current government needs to be dissolved. Build up a new one based on Islam thro and thro, watch it become a massive success. Whoever allies with Allah wins

 

[Namekian]

You are right money plays a very crucial role in the election process but don’t forget alliances are equally as important. Farmaajo had crazy amounts of money last elections but HSM still won due to alliances with the other major players.

How many of these alliances are there when it comes to voting in the new president? I know that Deni and Madoobe are usually in alliance . Is it safe to say QQ and Gudlawe are in an alliance and will be voting in the same direction in the upcoming election? I know that during Farmaajo’s time QQ , LG and Gudlawe were on the same team . And I know that HSM has currently made an enemy out of LG so does that mean HSM only has QQ and Gudlawe as allies? Or are they seeking out to do their own thing when election time comes?

 

[Step a side]

How many of these alliances are there when it comes to voting in the new president? I know that Deni and Madoobe are usually in alliance . Is it safe to say QQ and Gudlawe are in an alliance and will be voting in the same direction in the upcoming election? I know that during Farmaajo’s time QQ , LG and Gudlawe were on the same team . And I know that HSM has currently made an enemy out of LG so does that mean HSM only has QQ and Gudlawe as allies? Or are they seeking out to do their own thing when election time comes?

It’s very difficult to say. 329 mps will cast their votes. All of them are free to choose who they want as president. I do agree however that FMS governors have somewhat of an influence as they get to decide which MP’s will represent their state at the elections. I would geuss some of the MP’s from SH-dhexe to back Shareef and that’s because Guudlaawe is related to Shareef clan wise. Hiiraan’s Xawaadle’s traditionally would have went with HSM but I doubt that will be the case this time especially with all the ongoing conflicts in the region. Shareef might take most of them and a few will be taken by Kheyre especially the Gugundhabe & Gaaljecel ones. Deni and Madoobe would both handpick MP’s that will look out for their own interests. I expect most of JL mp’s to back Deni and a few of them to back Farmaajo. If Deni doesn’t make it to the final rounds then they (Deni & Madoobe) would go for either Shareef or Kheyre with the latter being the favourite and that’s because Farmaajo & HSM are heavily disliked by Madoobe and Deni. Some of PL mp’s will go for Farmaajo. Laftagren and his KG’s MP’s are kingmakers. They usually go where the money is. I expect Farmaajo and Kheyre to take most of their MP’s. With the Dir/Isaaq MP’s the vast majority of them are allied with Kheyre. In fact last election most of Kheyre’s votes were from the Dir/Isaaq. Qoorqoor’s Galmudug MPs this time would be taken by Shareef, Farmaajo, HSM & Kheyre. Madowweyne + Banaadiri would go with Kheyre and others with Farmaajo.

We are looking at a Farmaajo-Deni-Kheyre-Shareef semi final. Final would be Kheyre-Farmaajo or Kheyre-Deni.

 

[Namekian]

It’s very difficult to say. 329 mps will cast their votes. All of them are free to choose who they want as president. I do agree however that FMS governors have somewhat of an influence as they get to decide which MP’s will represent their state at the elections. I would geuss some of the MP’s from SH-dhexe to back Shareef and that’s because Guudlaawe is related to Shareef clan wise. Hiiraan’s Xawaadle’s traditionally would have went with HSM but I doubt that will be the case this time especially with all the ongoing conflicts in the region. Shareef might take most of them and a few will be taken by Kheyre especially the Gugundhabe & Gaaljecel ones. Deni and Madoobe would both handpick MP’s that will look out for their own interests. I expect most of JL mp’s to back Deni and a few of them to back Farmaajo. If Deni doesn’t make it to the final rounds then they (Deni & Madoobe) would go for either Shareef or Kheyre with the latter being the favourite and that’s because Farmaajo & HSM are heavily disliked by Madoobe and Deni. Some of PL mp’s will go for Farmaajo. Laftagren and his KG’s MP’s are kingmakers. They usually go where the money is. I expect Farmaajo and Kheyre to take most of their MP’s. With the Dir/Isaaq MP’s the vast majority of them are allied with Kheyre. In fact last election most of Kheyre’s votes were from the Dir/Isaaq. Qoorqoor’s Galmudug MPs this time would be taken by Shareef, Farmaajo, HSM & Kheyre. Madowweyne + Banaadiri would go with Kheyre and others with Farmaajo.

We are looking at a Farmaajo-Deni-Kheyre-Shareef semi final. Final would be Kheyre-Farmaajo or Kheyre-Deni.

Very interesting stuff. What about Galmudugs MPs who are they going for ? What is Qoor Qoors relationship with HSM lately? Didn’t HSM back Mahad Salad to takeover Galmudug? Wouldn’t that have soured the relationship between Qoor Qoor and HSM? And last question is if Farmaajo,Kheyre, Shareef and Deni make it to the semi finals then who would give their votes to who? I don’t know if I remember it wrong but Deni ran for president last time and he gave his to HSM which allowed HSM to win. So would something similar happen in the next election?

 

[Step a side]

Very interesting stuff. What about Galmudugs MPs who are they going for ? What is Qoor Qoors relationship with HSM lately? Didn’t HSM back Mahad Salad to takeover Galmudug? Wouldn’t that have soured the relationship between Qoor Qoor and HSM? And last question is if Farmaajo,Kheyre, Shareef and Deni make it to the semi finals then who would give their votes to who? I don’t know if I remember it wrong but Deni ran for president last time and he gave his to HSM which allowed HSM to win. So would something similar happen in the next election?

Ngl HSM burned all his bridges lol. Neither QQ nor Deni will help him this time. I doubt HSM would even run for elections that’s how irrelevant he is. Only reason why Deni backed him is because HSM promised him PM position. QQ knows HSM tried assassinating him on top of that you have an angry HG populace who want to take revenge on HSM due to the Xamar evictions. Only waceysla of Galmudug would go for HSM.

Deni will either back Kheyre or Shareef if he doesn’t make it to the finals himself. The strongest Hawiye candidate by far is Kheyre. No one even comes close. Not sure who the favourite is amongst the Darood but it’s between Farmaajo & Deni.

 

[Pastoralist]

QQ knows HSM tried assassinating him on top of that

He’s lucky he got that warning beforehand.

 

[TheLand]

Ngl HSM burned all his bridges lol. Neither QQ nor Deni will help him this time. I doubt HSM would even run for elections that’s how irrelevant he is. Only reason why Deni backed him is because HSM promised him PM position. QQ knows HSM tried assassinating him on top of that you have an angry HG populace who want to take revenge on HSM due to the Xamar evictions. Only waceysla of Galmudug would go for HSM.

Deni will either back Kheyre or Shareef if he doesn’t make it to the finals himself. The strongest Hawiye candidate by far is Kheyre. No one even comes close. Not sure who the favourite is amongst the Darood but it’s between Farmaajo & Deni.

The Murursade diaspora is gonna have to collect a lot of ayuuto for bribe money for Kheyre to have any chance

 

[Midas]

Not gonna lie i hope hsm is actually able to pull of the one man one vote system. It's obviously very corrupt and it does seem like a power grab. But at the same time it would represent somalis shaping their destiny. Since History is ultimately messy and you never get good results by following some ideal trajectory . If Somalia had democratic elections and the 4.5 system brought to end as a result of some corrupt president nefarious intentions it would fit the general trend in history of sucess being unpredictable and often ironic.

 

[Pastoralist]

Not gonna lie i hope hsm is actually able to pull of the one man one vote system. It's obviously very corrupt and it does seem like a power grab. But at the same time it would represent somalis shaping their destiny. Since History is ultimately messy and you never get good results by following some ideal trajectory . If Somalia had democratic elections and the 4.5 system brought to end as a result of some corrupt president nefarious intentions it would fit the general trend in history of sucess being unpredictable and often ironic.

We need 1m1v but not from this dameer. Once Somalia fulfills the requirements of the provisional constitution, like an anti corruption committee, then they can move onto the next step, dameer is vehemently against this.

“In 2021, then-President Farmaajo named members of an Independent Anti-Corruption Commission, almost two years after he signed an anticorruption law. This fulfilled a requirement in the 2012 provisional federal constitution for the first time. Nevertheless, punishment for corrupt acts by government officials was rare, and corruption remained one of the reasons that attacks against journalists and human rights defenders occurred with impunity. On October 9, President Mohamud dissolved the Anti-Corruption Commission and did not appoint a new commission.”

Source

 

[Midas]

We need 1m1v but not from this dameer

“Nevertheless, punishment for corrupt acts by government officials was rare, and corruption remained one of the reasons that attacks against journalists and human rights defenders occurred with impunity. On October 9, President Mohamud dissolved the Anti-Corruption Commission and did not appoint a new commission.”

Source

The probelm is your expecting/waiting for some ideal situation or person to come about to do this. But that's not how things happen or history unfolds. The reality is that behind every sucess or failure is an endless series of comprises,missteps and coincidences. Wether it's the abolishing of the 4.5 system or the defeat of alshabab it will never happen in a satisfying way. The only thing in my view that really matters is that our society is changing as a result of internal actors. And is not stagnant or merely at the mercy of outside actors. Regardless of how you feel about hsm he's not doing this one man vote thing becuase some western govt or un organization told him to do it. I'm pretty sure they're against it.

 

[Pastoralist]

The probelm is your expecting/waiting for some ideal situation or person to come about to do this. But that's not how things happen or history unfolds.

There has already been two people who want to finish the provisional constitution, not sure why you’re speaking as if it’s a unforeseen event.

@Midas what clan are you, I’m asking just to make sure talking to you isn’t a waste of time.

The reality is that behind every sucess or failure is an endless series of comprises,missteps and coincidences

His election committee is made up of family members and his own clan, not expertise, we’ve seen enough.

Whether it's the abolishing of the 4.5 system or the defeat of alshabab it will never happen in a satisfying way.

One election is agreed upon by all 5 states, the other unequivocally Balkanizes Somalia by not even asking the other states what they want or how they feel about it. Consensus is the way forward. PL completed a proper 1m1v, it’s not that hard to remain earnest with intention.

Regardless of how you feel about hsm he's not doing this one man vote thing becuase some western govt or un organization told him to do it. I'm pretty sure they're against it.

It’s a heavily flawed 1m1v that moves Somalia behind. The most corrupt president having no parliament to keep him in check and having total control over the whole countries resources via the constitution won’t run

 

[Step a side]

The Murursade diaspora is gonna have to collect a lot of ayuuto for bribe money for Kheyre to have any chance

The guy has crazy money. Qatar and Norway and a few other countries got his back. The oil and gas industry want to work with him. The IC as a whole wants Somalia to move forward and become a stable and reliable partner and Kheyre is the guy who can make that happen. Just came across few of his old videos on Facebook. Even the white man is in awe of him.

 

[Midas]

There has already been two people who want to finish the provisional constitution, not sure why you’re speaking as if it’s a unforeseen event.

@Midas what clan are you, I’m asking just to make sure talking to you isn’t a waste of time.

His election committee is made up of family members and his own clan, not expertise, we’ve seen enough.

One election is agreed upon by all 5 states, the other unequivocally Balkanizes Somalia by not even asking the other states what they want or how they feel about it. Consensus is the way forward. PL completed a proper 1m1v, it’s not that hard to remain earnest with intention.


It’s a heavily flawed 1m1v that moves Somalia behind. The most corrupt president having no parliament to keep him in check and having total control over the whole countries resources via the constitution won’t run

I'm not saying it'll succed for sure. I give it a 50/50 chance. My main point is that as long as there's sucess the method through which it is achieved doesn't bother me . And is only of intrest to me from a historical/academic perspective.

I won't say my specific clan . Since I'm not trying to get doxxed. (but I'm pretty sure you can tell im not from the south by the fact that I've referred to hsm and others as Moryaans.)

 

[Step a side]

^ shit not working lol

@Pastoralist remember these guys? Compare that to the shit show we have today.

 

[Pastoralist]

^ shit not working lol

@Pastoralist remember these guys? Compare that to the shit show we have today.

They were so good that a few of them even ran for president that election, there was true hawiye excellence in that cabinet.

I'm not saying it'll succed for sure. I give it a 50/50 chance. My main point is that as long as there's sucess the method through which it is achieved doesn't bother me . And is only of intrest to me from a historical/academic perspective.

I won't say my specific clan . Since I'm not trying to get doxxed. (but I'm pretty sure you can tell im not from the south by the fact that I've referred to hsm and others as Moryaans.)

It is 50/50, now that Ethiopia is on his side it levels the field. They’ll influence LG.

that’s a great answer. Not the doxing part, but just choosing not to reveal it. Old SYL ran the same way. It’s just that some of these people who support hsm because of clan can watch him fornicate with their own mother and they’d still be in the same room cheering them on, he can do no wrong to them.

 

[Karim]

Deni is the best choice possible right now imo.

 

[TheLand]

Deni is the best choice possible right now imo.

In all honestly he is the only one with any real achievements. Elections, security, infrastructure. In a rational ‘country’ your portfolio of concrete achievements would matter and he really has no competition there. It becomes more clear every day. But this is Somalia, not a rational country. The biggest tuug who is least suited to a position always gets it

 

[Burqad]

Deni with Kheyre as PM is most likely. The war against DAESH will boost his portfolio.

 

[TheLand]

Deni with Kheyre as PM is most likely. The war against DAESH will boost his portfolio.

So @Step a side will get what he wants after all