UIC rule 2006 Somalia scenario

[𐒔𐒙𐒇𐒕𐒛𐒐200]

What do you think Somalia would like today if the disastrous illegal us backed Ethiopian invasion didn't
happen in 2006. Would the country have seen peace,economic development,investment,unity as UIC destroyed
the warlords and wanted to create a government at the time as similar to how the Taliban is ruling Afghanistan.

 

[X29]

I'm not sure if icu rule wouldn't have helped but they at least would had better political objectives

 

[attash]

The ICU would have probably taken over all of Somalia. They were on their way to doing this, hence the invasion.

As for what would have happened next, that would depend on which faction came out on top. The ICU had two main factions, a moderate faction and an extremist faction (the predecessors of al Shabaab). If the moderate faction won out, then they could be convinced to denounce groups like al qaeda and thus avoid international sanctions. In this case, Somalia would certainly be a lot more stable and prosperous than it is today. If oil is extracted it is possible that we may resemble a country like Saudi. Who knows.

If the extremists win out, then Somalia would be a haven for international terror groups. It would be heavily sanctioned and subject to constant drone strikes. This could result in the people getting tired of them and the extremists losing grip on large parts of the country. In that case, Somalia would not look too different that it is today and maybe even worse.

 

[Keo]

The ICU would have probably taken over all of Somalia. They were on their way to doing this, hence the invasion.

This is not true.

 

[Khaem]

2006 was ICU vs the Gaalo alliance who wanted to install their puppet regime the fgs.

Sadly the Gaalo won and Somalia today is ran by western puppets called thr FGS who keep Somalia a ruined state

 

[mah14]

The ICU would have probably taken over all of Somalia. They were on their way to doing this, hence the invasion.

As for what would have happened next, that would depend on which faction came out on top. The ICU had two main factions, a moderate faction and an extremist faction (the predecessors of al Shabaab). If the moderate faction won out, then they could be convinced to denounce groups like al qaeda and thus avoid international sanctions. In this case, Somalia would certainly be a lot more stable and prosperous than it is today. If oil is extracted it is possible that we may resemble a country like Saudi. Who knows.

If the extremists win out, then Somalia would be a haven for international terror groups. It would be heavily sanctioned and subject to constant drone strikes. This could result in the people getting tired of them and the extremists losing grip on large parts of the country. In that case, Somalia would not look too different that it is today and maybe even worse.

If they ruled the south, it would have been better, then they would agree with Puntland and Somaliland to unite under one state.

 

[attash]

This is not true.

Why not? They had support from all clans. They were able to sweep through the most densely populated and diverse regions of the country with ease, I do not see why they wouldn’t be able to take over the whole country.

 

[jusbrowsin]

Why not? They had support from all clans. They were able to sweep through the most densely populated and diverse regions of the country with ease, I do not see why they wouldn’t be able to take over the whole country.

what clans specifically?

 

[attash]

what clans specifically?

All the clans who live in the south, which is basically every clan except for Isaaq and northern Dir. But there were Isaaq in the ICU leadership.

 

[jusbrowsin]

What do you think Somalia would like today if the disastrous illegal us backed Ethiopian invasion didn't
happen in 2006. Would the country have seen peace,economic development,investment,unity as UIC destroyed
the warlords and wanted to create a government at the time as similar to how the Taliban is ruling Afghanistan.

niggas lead the south for only 6months... y'all give them way too much credit. They probably would have imploded like usual.

 

[World]

Why not? They had support from all clans. They were able to sweep through the most densely populated and diverse regions of the country with ease, I do not see why they wouldn’t be able to take over the whole country.

They controlled 60 % of Somalia, the lawless parts controlled by AMISOM today. They didn’t have support or any chance taking control of the other 40 % Somalia, which have been stable since the civil war until today and free from AMISOM.

 

[johnsepei5]

Niggas are stuck in the past

 

[FBIsomalia]

What do you think Somalia would like today if the disastrous illegal us backed Ethiopian invasion didn't
happen in 2006. Would the country have seen peace,economic development,investment,unity as UIC destroyed
the warlords and wanted to create a government at the time as similar to how the Taliban is ruling Afghanistan.

Alkabaab were militiry faction of ICU, so result will be same, ICU attacked Puntland and sent treats to ethiopia. Not to mention Alqaidha were behind them, no wonder they control south veey fast.

 

[FBIsomalia]

If they ruled the south, it would have been better, then they would agree with Puntland and Somaliland to unite under one state.

They attacked Puntland!!.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

It wouldve been a whole lot better then it is now, the 2nd fall of somalia honestly. I say this as an Ogaden dude aswell.

 

[Tiyeglow]

ICU was Hawiye-based. To think their rule would spread across the rest of the lands of Somalia is naive.

 

[Tiyeglow]

It wouldve been a whole lot better then it is now, the 2nd fall of somalia honestly. I say this as an Ogaden dude aswell.

Interesting take. I didn't see it as such an inflection point

 

[Flightboi]

They attacked Puntland!!.

Do you think ICU could have defeated Somaliland and Puntland?

 

[Yazi]

The ICU would have probably taken over all of Somalia. They were on their way to doing this, hence the invasion.

As for what would have happened next, that would depend on which faction came out on top. The ICU had two main factions, a moderate faction and an extremist faction (the predecessors of al Shabaab). If the moderate faction won out, then they could be convinced to denounce groups like al qaeda and thus avoid international sanctions. In this case, Somalia would certainly be a lot more stable and prosperous than it is today. If oil is extracted it is possible that we may resemble a country like Saudi. Who knows.

If the extremists win out, then Somalia would be a haven for international terror groups. It would be heavily sanctioned and subject to constant drone strikes. This could result in the people getting tired of them and the extremists losing grip on large parts of the country. In that case, Somalia would not look too different that it is today and maybe even worse.

I have the same opinion. The moderates outnumbered the extremist 1-10 but the extremists were better trained and had more sophisticated military tactics.

 

[FBIsomalia]

Do you think ICU could have defeated Somaliland and Puntland?

Answer No, If USC couldnt and had peace with SSDF, how would ICU can?