Union to Balkanize Somalia

[Itsnotthateasy]

how?

Right now sovereignty is in the hands of incompetent and unaccountable group of people who are acting crazy in Mogadishu. Imagine if you had centres of power in Puntland and Somaliland. Somalis would be in a much stronger I imagine some groups would join up with Puntland because they are acting more rationally than the FGS.

With the FGS no longer the only show in town, they might have to get their act together - everyone wins.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

Right now sovereignty is in the hands of incompetent and unaccountable group of people who are acting crazy in Mogadishu. Imagine if you had centres of power in Puntland and Somaliland. Somalis would be in a much stronger I imagine some groups would join up with Puntland because they are acting more rationally than the FGS.

With the FGS no longer the only show in town, they might have to get their act together - everyone wins.

Right because the 'Somaliland' leaders are so competent as if Biixi's son isn't kidnapping people for fun in Hargeisa let's be real please these shitty states isma dhamaan either we have Somali statehood or let's stop the buuq and go quietly

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[Mudug_gyal]

I'm not a supremist. You divide people into clans, sublans, that's why the spirit of the union is to work towards the largest viable blocks. The side kick phenomenon you are talking about is domination. It can happen anywhere at any time to any group. If there are more centres of power (up to a point) the problem can be relieved because people will be closer to a centre of power they can influence.

Question is why would awdal choose to be somaliland sidekicks when they can also choose to be a sovereign state or they can choose to join their djibouti brothers?

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Right because the 'Somaliland' leaders are so competent as if Biixi's son isn't kidnapping people for fun in Hargeisa let's be real please these shitty states isma dhamaan either we have Somali statehood or let's stop the buuq and go quietly

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The FGS is by miles the worst of all Somali political groups. The reason is because it's not accountable to any Somali people or such a narrow group as to be meaningless - even then accountability is minimal.

The reality of Puntland or Somaliland is that these places put such an emphasis on survival that political development is difficult. Surivival trumps everything, the return of sovereignty eases up the pressure and allows for healthy political debate and growth.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

The FGS is by miles the worst of all Somali political groups. The reason is because it's not accountable to any Somali people or such a narrow group as to be meaningless - even then accountability is minimal.

The reality of Puntland or Somaliland is that these places put such an emphasis on survival that political development is difficult. Surivival trumps everything, the return of sovereignty eases up the pressure and allows for healthy political debate and growth.

Somaliland has been unimpeded for 3 decades and it has have nothing to show for it!

It is already de facto sovereign if anything independence would destroy Somaliland- aid would flow in a lot more than before and the very fragile and local processes would be destroyed. Eventually the same thing that happened in Xamar would happen with Hargeisa being the prize fought over.

If you are comparing it to Xamar and saying 'oh look how good it is' I'm sorry to tell you but someone saying they have it so good because they live in a hut instead of the street isn't really something to put forward as an argument.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Somaliland has been unimpeded for 3 decades and it has have nothing to show for it!

It is already de facto sovereign if anything independence would destroy Somaliland- aid would flow in a lot more than before and the very fragile and local processes would be destroyed. Eventually the same thing that happened in Xamar would happen with Hargeisa being the prize fought over.

If you are comparing it to Xamar and saying 'oh look how good it is' I'm sorry to tell you but someone saying they have it so good because they live in a hut instead of the street isn't really something to put forward as an argument.

Having no sovereignty is like the mother of all impediments. I mean everyone accepts that so how can we have a discussion if we are denying water is wet?

 

[oogabooga]

Stupid thing I’ve ever heard ever: dissolve Somalia? Are you mad? What did all our forefathers fight for? Qabilism? No

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

Having no sovereignty is like the mother of all impediments. I mean everyone accepts that so how can we have a discussion if we are denying water is wet?

Frankly it doesn't matter you know why? None of the 'elites' in Somaliland have shown themselves to be serious people.

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[Itsnotthateasy]

Frankly it doesn't matter you know why? None of the 'elites' in Somaliland have shown themselves to be serious people.

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We don't want this meeting to deteriorate into a I hate Somaliland meeting. One of the key factors in a state is monopoly on violence. Groups in Somaliland are not hunted and extorted like in the south so give some credit where it's due. The stable social framework is because people there are not mooryan. The rest will follow in time and the sovereignty will help Somaliland move to the next phase in it's development.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

We don't want this meeting to deteriorate into a I hate Somaliland meeting. One of the key factors in a state is monopoly on violence. Groups in Somaliland are not hunted and extorted like in the south so give some credit where it's due. The stable social framework is because people there are not mooryan. The rest will follow in time and the sovereignty will help Somaliland move to the next phase in it's development.

Walahi waan jecaylahay khayrka Somaliland but part of that is accepting reality.

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What you are still not grasping after ignoring all the valid points made is that sovereignty tomorrow morning will not change the basic problems I mentioned such as the awful 'leaders'. It will only give them more to f*ck up. You need to have the correct foundations for sovereignty to be of benefit and Somaliland does not the recent situation in Laas Canood is sufficient for an example.

Here's another such example from today:


Until there is an identity that supercedes qabiil or sub qabiil and people have competent transparent government, functioning institutions and equality under the law in a functioning judicial system there's no discussion to be had.

 

[Samadoor]

Right now sovereignty is in the hands of incompetent and unaccountable group of people who are acting crazy in Mogadishu. Imagine if you had centres of power in Puntland and Somaliland. Somalis would be in a much stronger I imagine some groups would join up with Puntland because they are acting more rationally than the FGS.

With the FGS no longer the only show in town, they might have to get their act together - everyone wins.

I get this point, but not in the sense that it's done for the purpose of threatening Balkanisation, rather that it is done to push the Southern government's hand to get their act together. I highlighted this issue in another thread that was discussing population data. It kind of derailed, but I made a point along the lines that Puntland and Somaliland should've/should ally as a block against the South in the eyes of the IC to form a stronger body to force the South to get their act in order. They seem more stable and are more clear on what they want and value, whereas the South is so conflicted.

 

[Abdisamad]

Nah I don't like that idea. Too small. You must stay as part of Somaliland.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Walahi waan jecaylahay khayrka Somaliland but part of that is accepting reality.

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What you are still not grasping after ignoring all the valid points made is that sovereignty tomorrow morning will not change the basic problems I mentioned such as the awful 'leaders'. It will only give them more to f*ck up. You need to have the correct foundations for sovereignty to be of benefit and Somaliland does not the recent situation in Laas Canood is sufficient for an example.

Here's another such example from today:


Until there is an identity that supercedes qabiil or sub qabiil and people have competent transparent government, functioning institutions and equality under the law in a functioning judicial system there's no discussion to be had.

Lascaanood is a terrible example if you ask me. It's a proxy war, fuelled by the failed FGS.

In the end all things are relative. I advocate for a recognized Somaliland and orderly balkanization of Somalia. What do you advocate for so we can at least have a proper debate.

You argue Somaliland is imperfect. What is a more perfect idea?

And anyway like they say, don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

Lascaanood is a terrible example if you ask me. It's a proxy war, fuelled by the failed FGS.

In the end all things are relative. I advocate for a recognized Somaliland and orderly balkanization of Somalia. What do you advocate for so we can at least have a proper debate.

Lol we both know it wasn't. The immediate trigger was the main Dhulbahante businessman being pissed that other businessmen backed by Hargeisa tried to muscle in - he then raised up his militia and backed the pre-existing anti Somaliland sentiment from all the assasinations and lack of law and order, etc.

I don't believe in any of the current options they are all useless.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Lol we both know it wasn't. The immediate trigger was the main Dhulbahante businessman being pissed that other businessmen backed by Hargeisa tried to muscle in - he then raised up his militia and backed the pre-existing anti Somaliland sentiment from all the assasinations and lack of law and order, etc.

I don't believe in any of the current options they are all useless.

I mean it's what it became in my view that's what gives the conflict its scale and its consequence.

Anyway, if you argue everyone is useless you let perfect be the enemy of good.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

I mean it's what it became in my view that's what gives the conflict its scale and its consequence.

Anyway, if you argue everyone is useless you let perfect be the enemy of good.

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[Itsnotthateasy]

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The age of revolutions is over. There was two in the last in the century - independence and socialism - those were the two moments that were opportunities. The windows have passed and we got to work with what we have.

 

[Zak12]

I talked about this before but the idea of Somalis being allowed to have multiple votes in the UN is extremely laughable in of itself. There are groups like the Kurds that outnumber Somalis significantly but don't have a single seat in the UN yet Somalis somehow are allowed to have like a dozen? Who will agree to that? Becoming a country isn't an easy process whatsoever unless you somehow prefer being the shitty limbo state of Somaliland.

More importantly, none of these hypothetical qabil based states are economically viable. All of them would be undeveloped tuulo filled desert shitholes that can't sustain themselves and would sooner collapse due to lack of infastructure and resources. And of course, this balkanization plan has no gurantee of peace and stability. Somalis will not suddenly hold hands and sing kumbaya on each other just because we are politically seperate, there will be continued qabil conflict and competition over who should have what land or resources. You know as well as I do that Somali clans simply cannot accept peaceful demarcation of borders since qabil is highly fluid and cannot be properly mapped whatsoever. Just look at Somaliland and Puntland as example. A clan will complain that they weren't treated fairly in the balkanization and so conflict will occur.

I can see it now, some qabil state like Somaliland and Jubaland will continue to work with Ethiopia and Kenya just so they have the upper hand over other qabils and before you know it, Somalis will cease to exist because they prefer to work with their enemies over working with fellow Somalis despite the former viewing them as cattle to be abused.

Support federalism if you want but Somalia is here to stay, the world doesn't want to babysit multiple little Somalias so stop being a child and crying about muh qabil already.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I talked about this before but the idea of Somalis being allowed to have multiple votes in the UN is extremely laughable in of itself. There are groups like the Kurds that outnumber Somalis significantly but don't have a single seat in the UN yet Somalis somehow are allowed to have like a dozen? Who will agree to that? Becoming a country isn't an easy process whatsoever unless you somehow prefer being the shitty limbo state of Somaliland.

More importantly, none of these hypothetical qabil based states are economically viable. All of them would be undeveloped tuulo filled desert shitholes that can't sustain themselves and would sooner collapse due to lack of infastructure and resources. And of course, this balkanization plan has no gurantee of peace and stability. Somalis will not suddenly hold hands and sing kumbaya on each other just because we are politically seperate, there will be continued qabil conflict and competition over who should have what land or resources. You know as well as I do that Somali clans simply cannot accept peaceful demarcation of borders since qabil is highly fluid and cannot be properly mapped whatsoever. Just look at Somaliland and Puntland as example. A clan will complain that they weren't treated fairly in the balkanization and so conflict will occur.

I can see it now, some qabil state like Somaliland and Jubaland will continue to work with Ethiopia and Kenya just so they have the upper hand over other qabils and before you know it, Somalis will cease to exist because they prefer to work with their enemies over working with fellow Somalis despite the former viewing them as cattle to be abused.

Support federalism if you want but Somalia is here to stay, the world doesn't want to babysit multiple little Somalias so stop being a child and crying about muh qabil already.

Anytime someone puts an argument to me. I'm going to have to ask what's your alternative. Most of the country that could use sovereignty well is without it. My proposal puts sovereignty into the hands of local groups which is how failed states recover from the ground up.

Having one centre of sovereignty in Mogadishu that is basically accountable to no one is failed path. How do you then propose to construct Somalia? Out of what? This status quo which is really stealth balkanization is the scenario you are arguing for.

I put it that there's only two paths disorderly balkanization that is already happening or an orderly negotiated exit with agreements on how to deal with the problems in the territory.

The rest of arguments about the numbers of states, minority rights and economics would be dealt with by the Union and it's committees. These things will be considered. No need to go to the most hysterical possibilities.

 

[Zak12]

Anytime someone puts an argument to me. I'm going to have to ask what's your alternative. Most of the country that could use sovereignty well is without it. My proposal puts sovereignty into the hands of local groups which is how failed states recover from the ground up.

Having one centre of sovereignty in Mogadishu that is basically accountable to no one is failed path. How do you then propose to construct Somalia? Out of what? This status quo which is really stealth balkanization is the scenario you are arguing for.

I put it that there's only two paths disorderly balkanization that is already happening or an orderly negotiated exit with agreements on how to deal with the problems in the territory.

The rest of arguments about the numbers of states, minority rights and economics would be dealt with by the Union and it's committees. These things will be considered. No need to go to the most hysterical possibilities.

The problem is that your "solution" isn't realistic whatsoever. Somalia being a failed state or not has no bearing on it balkanizing. In fact, Somalia can collapse hundreds of times and it still wouldn't be balkanized.

Since the end of decolonization only two new African countries were formed: South Sudan and Eritrea, both of which had approval from their host nations and the UN. The best chance for Somalia to become balkanized was in the 90s but Somalis would rather have continued fighting than negotiate with each other and by 2011 it was too late.