he also mentions how it began with 1977 somali invasion @17:48
I hold Eritrean citizenship so hypothetically I could if I was in Eritrea during an outbreak of war.@seldiboy are you conscripted because Ethiopia is gathering 100 miles from your capital in Zalambessa.
The first would be better although it still wouldn't hold as a valid casus belli. De facto annexation of a port is not enough for Ethiopia. Assab and Massawa cannot handle anywhere near the volume of trade required for Ethiopia. For them to be feasible options, they need development with money that Ethiopia does not have. Thus they need foreign contractors and loans to make it work (which they will not get without de-jure recognition of annexation)What would be the better selling point to the west: invading to get the 30 year despot outta there and stopping the Russian navy from entrenching itself in the region or de facto annexing (permanently occupying) a port region for the purpose of protecting international trade from Houthis?
I'm sure the US would provide material support to weaken the Houthis and RussiansFor them to be feasible options, they need development with money that Ethiopia does not have. Thus they need foreign contractors and loans to make it work (which they will not get without de-jure recognition of annexation)
The ground support take is wishful thinking. Ethiopia will shoot themselves in the leg by pulling such a move. No matter, America will not aid the ruler in Eritrea.I hold Eritrean citizenship so hypothetically I could if I was in Eritrea during an outbreak of war.
I wouldn't worry about a war though. Ethiopia neither has the military capabilities nor the geopolitical goodwill to go through with it. Remember, we still live in a world of rules based order (even if it's not applied equally). Unilateral invasions are met with swift sanctions that will cripple a 3rd world country's economy. I wouldn't be surprised to see intervention in the form of boots-on-the-ground either.
Oh, any intervention wouldn’t be with the aim of aiding either side. It’s more to do with the fact that an outbreak of war around Assab is likely to be disruptive to activities around the Bab el Mandeb Strait. More of a stabilisation measure. Of course, no one is going to help Eritrea (or Ethiopia realistically) in this situationThe ground support take is wishful thinking. Ethiopia will shoot themselves in the leg by pulling such a move. No matter, America will not aid the ruler in Eritrea.
If Ethiopia is gets dismantled that will be bad news for Somalis in the region as that will hit our economy and trade hard and I don't want thatIf a war happened, then I hope this country would be dismantled.
This maniac wants to start a war while he was begging the World Bank for emergency loan, some big factories are closing for the lack of foreign exchanges, thousands of Ethiopians die from starvation, the Tigray war cost them 20+ billion dollars in damages, insurgencies around the country, yet instead of dealing with severe problems he buys advanced drones, cyber warfare systems, rearming the defense force and start a war with Eritrea!