Washington Examiner - Ethiopia’s naive peacemaking could lead to war.

[xabashi]

Lol, I see you don't know much about the animosity between tigray and eritreans.
Tigray have been eating good for the past 30 years at the expense of the oromo and ahmara people now the it's their turn to face the stick

You are absolutely right this guy has no clue about the internals of Ethio/Eritrean politics Tigray joining Eritrea What a joke. And what would Eritrea benefit after becoming the minority in their own land?

 

[Guled111]

I think you are day dreaming.
You are not up to date with Ethiopia.

Majority of Oromo do not want Amhara.Amhara have never changed they are the same untrustworthy habeshas who committed genocide on Oromos and are unapologetic.

Abye tried to align himself with Amhara and he lost Oromo support.Infact he has been fighting a faction of OLF.

Tigray is 4 million armed to teeth.Having most of the latest weapons at their disposal.

How did tigray rise in power even though they are very small population wise?

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

How did tigray rise in power even though they are very small population wise?

Eritrea helped them.
Eritrea captured Addis Ababa in 1990 and before that Mengistu was told to step down by the west even though he coukd have fought them.

 

[Younes Osman]

Ethiopia’s naive peacemaking could lead to war

| February 17, 2020 09:43 AM

Ethiopian Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy is on a high. In October 2019, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded him the Nobel Peace Prize “for his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea.” The committee also cited Abiy’s work more broadly — helping restore Djibouti-Eritrea ties, mediate a maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia, and facilitate the peaceful transition in Sudan.


The Nobel Peace Prize, of course, differs from all Nobel Prizes. Swedish organizations award the Nobel Prizes in literature, economics, and the sciences based on a life’s work. The Norwegian Nobel Committee, on the other hand, awards the peace prize based on aspiration and hope. This has led to a number of awards to individuals and organizations whose legacies did not live up to the Nobel committee’s aspirations. Indeed, it is not certain Abiy’s détente with Eritrea will last, nor that Ethiopia itself will remain stable and unified.

Alas, Abiy appears to have let the prize go to his head and, in doing so, may have forgotten an important rule of peacemaking: timing matters. Sometimes, rushed reconciliation, regardless of the good intentions behind it, can lead to disaster.

Consider, for example, the tragedy of U.S.-Iran relations. It was not the Islamic Revolution that paralyzed relations between the United States and Iran. The U.S. Embassy continued to function in the heart of Tehran for more than nine months after revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s return. Rather, it was the hostage crisis. Few remember the spark that led to the seizure of the U.S. Embassy. On Nov. 1, 1979, Carter administration national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski visited Algiers for a multilateral event during the course of which he met and shook hands with Mehdi Bazargan, telling the Iranian prime minister that the U.S. was open to resolving bilateral problems and bettering ties. Khomeini and revolutionaries in his circle were infuriated by the photo of the two officials meeting that made its way into Iranian newspapers and ordered the embassy attack as a way of derailing any rapprochement. Simply put, had Brzezinski not rushed diplomacy and been so public with his ambitions, there might not have been a hostage crisis, with all the second-order effects that followed.

Back to the Horn of Africa. It has now been almost 30 years since Somalia descended into state failure. Dictator Siad Barre fled the country, but he did not go quietly. Rather, he sought to wage genocide against the Isaaq clan, which predominates in Somaliland, the northern state of Somalia, which was for 76 years a British protectorate. In 1991, Somaliland reasserted its independence and had existed as an independent (albeit unrecognized) country ever since. Its social compact and democratic government largely shielded it from the chaos that afflicted the rest of Somalia. It never experienced the piracy in which neighboring Puntland participated. And while al Shabaab regularly stages attacks in the heart of Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, it has been 12 years since there was a similar attack in Somaliland.

Abiy, however, has decided that his Nobel mantle gives him a mandate single-handedly to reunite Somalia. Last week, Abiy brokered the first-ever meeting between Muse Bihi Abdi, Somaliland’s democratically elected president, and Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, known as “Farmajo,” who was selected to be Somalia’s leader in an election in which only 0.002% of the Somali population was allowed to vote.

Abiy likes Farmajo for the same reason Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. Ambassador Donald Yamamoto do: because he is not known for an independent intellect and is pliable to their needs. In Somalia itself, however, Farmajo is widely despised for his ineffectiveness, venality, and corruption. He is hated even more in Somaliland.

Not only is he a relative of the late dictator who brought ruin to Somalia, but he has unapologetically promoted Barre’s family in his administration. When Somalia opened an embassy in Washington last autumn, the ceremony featured a convicted war criminal best known in Somaliland for burning prisoners alive.

Abiy, however, is a man on a mission. He has reportedly let Somaliland authorities know he plans to bring Farmajo to Hargeisa whether Somaliland wants it or not. Local officials fear he may simply fly his official plane into Hargeisa’s airport with Farmajo as his passenger, symbolically asserting Farmajo’s authority into a region where the vast majority of people have never lived under Mogadishu’s grip and where those who did associate it with war crimes and genocide. Abiy’s move would be akin to Russian President Vladimir Putin telling the Czech Republic that he is bringing Milos Jakes, Czechoslovakia’s last communist party chief, back to Prague whether the democratically elected government likes it or not.

What is curious, however, is why Abiy believes such a move would bring peace rather than transform popular revulsion into violence. In effect, Abiy’s naivete might destabilize one of the most strategic and secure regions in the Horn of Africa. It could usher in chaos in the street and lead to violence. Abiy’s success would mean damaging irreparably the Somaliland government’s authority and its ability to fight terrorism, prevent weapons smuggling, and be a buffer against the spread of al Shabaab.

That Abiy would risk such action for a photo-op suggests the Ethiopian prime minister puts ego above common sense and may be descending down the same path of self-destruction that led an earlier generation of African leaders to destroy their countries while glorifying themselves. For the sake of the region, let us hope that regional leaders, European officials, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will try to talk sense into Ethiopia’s egotistical leader before he makes a move that can undo decades of progress and cost tens of thousands of lives.

Michael Rubin (@Mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner's Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/ethiopias-naive-peacemaking-could-lead-to-war

innabti, the question is why are somali nationalist not critically criticizing the close relationship between abyd ahmed and xaarmaajo. They can't continue saying well "Somaliland is an Ethiopian creation" because somaliland is a poltical reality. I'm thinking to myself, both somalia and somaliland government are both somalis. So Therefore, they should negotiate and conduct themselves with dignity and respect. Eventually, come to a conclusion based on 2 option,

1) Somaliland reunites with Somalia in which there has to be something beneficial that attracts SL in regards to economically and politically ideals. Somalia needs to consider SL an equal partner in terms of political and economical representations that lacked in the union between 1960-91.

2) If somaliland does not want to reunite with Somalia then Somalia needs to let somaliland go and amendment to the constitution in which it leads SL to gain recognition. Therefore,
haddii dadku ka heli waayaan xuquuqdooda wadankaas. ma ku qasbi kartid which is true. Our ancestors decided to united with xamar . But, we never saw the dividends of that decision till this day.

 

[Guled111]

Eritrea helped them.
Eritrea captured Addis Ababa in 1990 and before that Mengistu was told to step down by the west even though he coukd have fought them.

Mengistu was tigray so it's tigray that want a weak somalia

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Mengistu was tigray so it's tigray that want a weak somalia

Mengistu was Sidamo like the former prime minister.
His mom was Amhara he was raised by Haile Selasie.

 

[Guled111]

Mengistu was Sidamo like the former prime minister.
His mom was Amhara he was raised by Haile Selasie.

Do you think tigray will still rule Ethiopia for some time

 

[Addislad]

Do you think tigray will still rule Ethiopia for some time

Tplf is history dude

Don't you keep up with the current news

 

[Abba Sadacha]

tplf should than look towards secession of tigray and to join Eritrea, Ethiopia aint doing much for them anyways

Most eritreans want nothing to do with tigrayans especially the Muslims.
You have a lot to learn my friend.

 

[Ayubi]

Most eritreans want nothing to do with tigrayans especially the Muslims.
You have a lot to learn my friend.

You are absolutely right this guy has no clue about the internals of Ethio/Eritrean politics Tigray joining Eritrea What a joke. And what would Eritrea benefit after becoming the minority in their own land?

Aren't Tigrayans from Tigray and Eritrea the same ethnicity? Why do they hate each other? I always see Eritrean Tigrayans insult people from Tigray. What's the issue between them?

 

[xabashi]

Aren't Tigrayans from Tigray and Eritrea the same ethnicity? Why do they hate each other? I always see Eritrean Tigrayans insult people from Tigray. What's the issue between them?

The main problem with most of us is that we think ethnicity and nationality is part of some DNA. In reality ethnicity and identity is a social construct and can change anytime. Groups of people can change their identity and ethnicity during times. Currently no Eritrean thinks he is the same ethnic group like Tigreans. Many acknowledge and know the obvious similarities like culture and language but it is hard to find an Eritrean who thinks they are the same ethnic group. They may be some day same ethnic groups but now how Eritreans identify themselves is completely different than of Tigreans. Some Eritreans at one time also identified as Ethiopians and had unity party etc. but currently they have developed a separate identity. May be in the future they may change but currently an Eritrea and Tigray unity country is unthinkable. Aside from ethnicity, Eritreans only lose with this kind of unity anyways since Tigray region is poorer and has more population. Eritreans will become a minority in the united country and will be sharing their port revenues etc. with Tigray gaining absolutely nothing. That is why mostly Tigreans are pushing for this kind of settlement not Eritreans. It is a lose for them.

 

[kickz]

Giving Ethiopia to much credit, they are being used by the world. In the next 20 years influence and attention will move Oil wise from Middle East to Horn of Africa.

 

[Macalin M]

The main problem with most of us is that we think ethnicity and nationality is part of some DNA. In reality ethnicity and identity is a social construct and can change anytime. Groups of people can change their identity and ethnicity during times. Currently no Eritrean thinks he is the same ethnic group like Tigreans. Many acknowledge and know the obvious similarities like culture and language but it is hard to find an Eritrean who thinks they are the same ethnic group. They may be some day same ethnic groups but now how Eritreans identify themselves is completely different than of Tigreans. Some Eritreans at one time also identified as Ethiopians and had unity party etc. but currently they have developed a separate identity. May be in the future they may change but currently an Eritrea and Tigray unity country is unthinkable. Aside from ethnicity, Eritreans only lose with this kind of unity anyways since Tigray region is poorer and has more population. Eritreans will become a minority in the united country and will be sharing their port revenues etc. with Tigray gaining absolutely nothing. That is why mostly Tigreans are pushing for this kind of settlement not Eritreans. It is a lose for them.

What’s the difference with Tigre and Tigrinia apart from one being majority Muslim and the other being majority Christian?

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Tplf is history dude

Don't you keep up with the current news

You are MX born accidentaly in Addis After you were fleeing Xamar and your plane ran out of fuel and your folks found themselves in Addis Ababa.

So I cant pin point exactly where you were born in Aidsababa but there were large hips of Garbage everywhere.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

What’s the difference with Tigre and Tigrinia apart from one being majority Muslim and the other being majority Christian?

Tigre predominantly live in Eritrea and Sudan and are muslims.
Tigrinya live in Tigray Agames(Meles) and also live in Eritrea as Hamasen(Afoworki).

Tigrinya speakers do not hate each other infact Tigrinya from Tigray are re settled in Muslim lands by Afaworki.
So all this beef Tigray and Eritrea is bullshit.

In all the wars majority of the EthiVs Eri war were done by other Ethnic groups. While the Tigrinya were beating the drums of war.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Do you think tigray will still rule Ethiopia for some time

No they cant but they have substantial influence especially in a divided Oromo and other Ethiopian ethnic groups.
They have the capacity to flare conflicts.
Like the conflict between Afar and Somalis and Somalis and Oromos.

 

[Macalin M]

Tigre predominantly live in Eritrea and Sudan and are muslims.
Tigrinya live in Tigray Agames(Meles) and also live in Eritrea as Hamasen(Afoworki).

Tigrinya speakers do not hate each other infact Tigrinya from Tigray are re settled in Muslim lands by Afaworki.
So all this beef Tigray and Eritrea is bullshit.

In all the wars majority of the EthiVs Eri war were done by other Ethnic groups. While the Tigrinya were beating the drums of war.

I always thought of Trigrinyas as the high iq ones of Ethiopia.

so do Eritrea want the Tigray region to be apart of Eritrea or not?

Spoiler

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[Sheikh Kulkuli]

I always thought of Trigrinyas as the high iq ones of Ethiopia.

so do Eritrea want the Tigray region to be apart of Eritrea or not?

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Naah they dont want they hate each other ironicaly.

They used to be one back in the days
But after the death of Yohanes Tigrinya
Menelik Amhara took over and to split the Tigrinya people he agreed with Italy to control Eritrea after the "war", while the other remaining province of Tigray was under Menelik and he was so brutal to them that he treated them like mid.gans(Agames).You know Menelik employed Oromos and assimilated loads of Oromos into Amhara which enabled them to prop up their numbers.

 

[xabashi]

What’s the difference with Tigre and Tigrinia apart from one being majority Muslim and the other being majority Christian?

They are different ethnic groups and speak different languages (Tigre and Tigigna languages).

 

[xabashi]

I always thought of Trigrinyas as the high iq ones of Ethiopia.

so do Eritrea want the Tigray region to be apart of Eritrea or not?

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Eritreans wanting Tigray to be part of Eritrea
If anything it is the other way around. some elites from Tigray wanting to join Eritrea.