What if Castro's vision came true?

[Khaem]

In the leadup to the Ogden war, meetings were held and in one of them, Castro proposed Somalia, Ethiopia and north yemen unite into a red sea socialist federation. I don't remember exactly what happened next but it fell apart because of a yemeni diplomat.

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[The alchemist]

Castro believed Siyad Barre was a fake Socialist. Supporting the "revolution" in Ethiopia, the allegiance of the Cuban socialists sided with the Ethiopians, not Somalis. The socialists wanted instead to merge the whole region, emphasizing an Ethiopian dominance to represent that regional strong-hold, undermining Somalis.

A relevant text I wrote about a while back regarding South Yemen's role in the war:

South Yemen was a radical socialist (Marxist-Leninist) power that came to the aid of Ethiopia, another ally for the "revolution" of the broader international socialist grand plan under the direction of the Soviet paternalistic influential hegemon. It was allied with Somalia against Ethiopia (in the days of monarchy) when America had the latter's regional "cooperative" interests in mind, but when Somalia went to war, and the US-Soviet tensions shifted gears, leading to the Soviet Union backing Ethiopia, South Yemen seeing how America was on the side of Somalia backed their communists instead. South Yemen's interests were submerged in ideology.

"The PDRY formed part of the bloc most critical of the USA, and in 1977 joined the Front of Steadfastness and Rejection set up to oppose the Egyptian initiatives towards Israel. A second area of disagreement was the Indian Ocean which had since 1968 become an area of US-Soviet rivalry and where the PDRY repeatedly sought to rally opposition to US naval and air deployments. The third region was the Horn of Africa: there, prior to 1974, the PDRY supported the Eritrean guerrillas and Somalia, both rivals of the pro-American Ethiopian monarchy, and after 1974 Aden increasingly supported the revolutionary military regime in Addis Ababa that was in conflict, and for a time at war, with a now pro-American Somalia. Consequently, while the issues varied, South Yemeni-US relations were almost continuously hostile throughout the post-1967 period." - Halliday, Fred. (1990)."Revolution and Foreign Policy The Case of South Yemen 1967-1987" (p. 80).

South Yemen until 1974 supported Somalia and the Eritreans (something that changed after the fall of the monarchy of Haile Selassie):

"On the Red Sea side, the PDRY maintained a continual if discreet interest in the affairs of the Horn of Africa: until 1974 it backed the guerrillas in the Ethiopian province of Eritrea and developed a close political relationship with the military regime in Somalia." (Halliday, p.170)

The Yemen Arab Republic (North Yemen), stayed neutral during the Ogaden War. It had its own issues which led to a conflict with South Yemen during the Ogaden War.

South Yemen abolished several Islamic rightful practices in their own land to get in line with the socialist agenda, similar to what Siyad Barre did, all to appeal to the Soviet Union. They subscribed to an ideology that demanded un-Islamic policies, so the question of why they joined hands with Ethiopia is fundamentally secular. In that respect, because of Siyaad Barres's diplomatic failures, the socialist world had turned against him, vis-à-vis, South Yemen was part of that, thus joined to support Ethiopia. Plus South Yemen at the time had issues with the Arab world, so maybe it wanted to further antagonize in its regional plays as it was isolated.

Yemen (geography) at the time was in a very volatile turmoil. There was an inter-state conflict. The North Yemeni leader was assassinated while trying to go south on a diplomatic invite. The leader of South Yemen was killed in a coup two days later.

Interestingly, I found a recorded interview from the perspective of South Yemen's foreign minister Muhammad Salih Mutiyya in November 1977, from Appendix 3 (p. 240-1) of the same source:

Q: What about Somalia? It is now at war with Ethiopia. You have previously had good relations with Mogadishu, and now you have good relations with Ethiopia. What is your policy here?

A. Somalia cannot take a long war. They are three millions to the Ethiopian's thirty millions. In the end, we think the Somalis will negotiate if they are defeated. The Somalis want us to be with them only, and most Arab states take Somalia's side. But the Somalis are misleading the Arabs about what is happening there. We Yemenis say: you have to negotiate, since you are going to have to live with them for a long time to come. The irony is that the Somalis were favourable to Mengistu before he came to power: it was they who advised us and the Soviet Union to deal with him. The Somalis are now talking about the Western Somalia Liberation Front: but the WSLF just consists of external delegations. The Somalis even arrested them all in 1973-4. We are concerned about the situation there, not least because there are Yemenis living in both Ethiopia and Somalia.

Said by the horse's mouth, the Arab world was largely siding with Somalia in the Somali-Ethiopia conflict with South Yemen being against it for its radical unyielding socialistic convictions with frankly Ethiopianist bias (since they picked the side of the Ethiopian "revolution" above the concern and rights of Somalia that signaled, however half-assed, socialist ideology for diplomatic international relations appeal). Notice how the foreign minister claimed Somalis were the ones who introduced a favorable perspective on Mengistu to the South Yemenis and the Soviet Union.

Further questions highlight the same sentiments documented about Fidel Castro on the dispute and socialistic global aspirations. The socialists preferred Ethiopian domination over Somalia's interests, indicated by how they never mediated propositions for Ethiopia to meet halfway with the Somali region dispute:

Q. Fidel Castro made a visit here to try and arrange a federation of states in the region. Were you included in this?

A. Castro tried to say to the Somalis that the Ethiopian revolution was just starting, and they should try to solve their differences in a peaceful war. He thought we should all try to help the revolution in Ethiopia. The Ethiopians suggested a federation of Ethiopia, Somalia and Eritrea, but the PDRY was not included in such proposals.

Castro proposed a federation of Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia and I think Somalia got the sense that the socialists were blurring the lines a bit too much toward an expansionary Ethiopian dominance, so it went to war to assert its regional claims and draw strong existential boundaries, which the socialist did not like.

Here we can clearly see that South Yemen not only was aiding, but they were active in suppressing Somalia by even urging the bigger Soviet:

Q. Can the Russians put pressure on Somalia?

A. The Russians have not been able to hold Somalia back. We in the PDRY warned the Russians about this, but they gave bad advice to Mengistu about their ability to restrain Somalia.

This really goes to show that however you appeal to the West and (then) the Soviets, they will always prefer Ethiopia first. Somalis can never become powerful by relying on walking up the supposed ladder of Western prestige. All that exists there are illusions of promises that result in pathetic mediocrity mixed in with betrayal. At the end of the day, the fear of a strong powerhouse in such a strategic position is best subdued and destroyed from their self-interested perspective rather than an ally of their enemy.

 

[Khaem]

Castro believed Siyad Barre was a fake Socialist. Supporting the "revolution" in Ethiopia, the allegiance of the Cuban socialists sided with the Ethiopians, not Somalis. The socialists wanted instead to merge the whole region, emphasizing an Ethiopian dominance to represent that regional strong-hold, undermining Somalis.

A relevant text I wrote about a while back regarding South Yemen's role in the war:

Somalia had their own "Islamic socialism" thing going on whereas ethiopia wanted to go for the hard-core godless communism that castro loved.

Wasn't there a point were Siad Barre said he would consider it if ogaden was part of the Somali state however some Yemeni diplomat made a remark that got Siad Barre pissed and left the meeting.

 

[Emir of Zayla]

In the leadup to the Ogden war, meetings were held and in one of them, Castro proposed Somalia, Ethiopia and north yemen unite into a red sea socialist federation. I don't remember exactly what happened next but it fell apart because of a yemeni diplomat.

View attachment 305955

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It would’ve looked like this tho. Anyways the Socialist Union would’ve fallen apart in a decade or two like the Soviet Union with Northern Yemen taking back the south from the commies, Eritrea eventually getting independence and Somaliweyn separating from it too.

 

[The alchemist]

Somalia had their own "Islamic socialism" thing going on whereas ethiopia wanted to go for the hard-core godless communism that castro loved.

Wasn't there a point were Siad Barre said he would consider it if ogaden was part of the Somali state however some Yemeni diplomat made a remark that got Siad Barre pissed and left the meeting.

It was not one remark that was the issue. Siyaad Barre was set on taking the Somali region, and Castro was in denial, thinking a superficial mediation could reconcile the problems without demanding Ethiopia to meet halfway. It was clearly emphasized that the Socialists had favored Ethiopia and its future while viewing Somalia as a growing regional "problem." Siyad Barre only promoted domestic socialist policies through external pressures to get international support, a pure give-and-take mechanism. It was never a full inherent conviction. Realizing this, viewing Ethiopia as an experimental, radical playground as a proof of concept for future ideological aspirations, the Cubans joined Ethiopia fully once the conflict had become cemented as a ground invasion, signaling the crystallization of pre-existing bias by the Western Socialists.

 

[Burqad]

It would’ve looked like this tho. Anyways the Socialist Union would’ve fallen apart in a decade or two like the Soviet Union with Northern Yemen taking back the south from the commies, Eritrea eventually getting independence and Somaliweyn separating from it too. View attachment 305958

No it wouldn’t have. Ethiopia would not give up an inch of land even to autonomy.

 

[Internet Nomad]

Its insane how all these islamic countries had a communist/socalist wave back in the 70s. Something like that would be incomprehensible today.

Just goes to show you all muslim nations today could become liberal in a few years if pushed in the right way.

 

[Khaem]

Its insane how all these islamic countries had a communist/socalist wave back in the 70s. Something like that would be incomprehensible today.

Just goes to show you all muslim nations today could become liberal in a few years if pushed in the right way.

The failure of those socialist states and dictatorships is why hardcore Islamists took power and/or rising.

 

[Internet Nomad]

The failure of those socialist states and dictatorships is why hardcore Islamists took power and/or rising.

From one extreme to another.

Over time muslim states are equalising.