Nothing will work.
Whats the true political solution to somalia
- Thread starter jusbrowsin
- Start date
your a ray of sunshine arent ya
Like the Chinese communist revolution?
Dissolution of Somalia and the emergence of a Somali confederacy. No one clan is big enough to dominate the others, and talk of unity and nationalism is usually laden with ulterior clan based motives for the ones who propagate it, so that shouldn’t be considered either.
Your idea is confederations is unique but its also naive as it can only work in an ideal world. When confederacy happens your 100% going to see multiple states refuse to join that confederacy or even leave it once they do #SOMEXIT. Thats going to be the death of a whole ethnicity and the start of divulgence of ethnicity and after a really long time, language.
It would also breed unhealthy competition. Regions under the current federal structure alreadywant nothing to do with each other. If we are seperating under federalism what makes you think confederations will work?
In my own opinion I think the best thing to do is to empower the people and let the people of every region decide their future via referendums and not leave it to politicians as they are often corrupted and motivates by money. If they leave, they leave. If they stay, they stay.
But then again my idea has issues itself because the UN will definitely NOT recognise 6-9 independent nations. and garnering support from the international community will be difficult. Ts could actually lead to internal civil war and in turn militias.
You also have issues like Economic cost. No investor is going to feel safe in a nation where succession and war is a looming threat. Your also going to have port wars between each somali region, trade tarrifs. I mean I cant even imagine the hassle of planes flying through that many EEZ zones. We will also be entirely exposed to foreign exploitation as they play divide and conquer 1000x worse than how they do rn.
But one thing is clear from history:
The more a country balkanises, the more likely it is to suffer long term instability, weaker global influence and also economic vulnerability.
edit: this is not me pandering for unity. im just calling out the many flaws in confederacy. Confederacy can only happen with peaceful talks and unity between different somali regions which also happen to be different countries. Knowing somalis that cannot happen. This topic is extremely nuanced and sensitive with many many issues for both unity and division
1. A confederation would provide unity in times of war or aggression from neighbouring statesYour idea is confederations is unique but its also naive as it can only work in an ideal world. When confederacy happens your 100% going to see multiple states refuse to join that confederacy or even leave it once they do #SOMEXIT. Thats going to be the death of a whole ethnicity and the start of divulgence of ethnicity and after a really long time, language.
It would also breed unhealthy competition. Regions under the current federal structure alreadywant nothing to do with each other. If we are seperating under federalism what makes you think confederations will work?
In my own opinion I think the best thing to do is to empower the people and let the people of every region decide their future via referendums and not leave it to politicians as they are often corrupted and motivates by money. If they leave, they leave. If they stay, they stay.
But then again my idea has issues itself because the UN will definitely NOT recognise 6-9 independent nations. and garnering support from the international community will be difficult. Ts could actually lead to internal civil war and in turn militias.
You also have issues like Economic cost. No investor is going to feel safe in a nation where succession and war is a looming threat. Your also going to have port wars between each somali region, trade tarrifs. I mean I cant even imagine the hassle of planes flying through that many EEZ zones. We will also be entirely exposed to foreign exploitation as they play divide and conquer 1000x worse than how they do rn.
But one thing is clear from history:
The more a country balkanises, the more likely it is to suffer long term instability, weaker global influence and also economic vulnerability.
2. There will be no one leader or head of the confederation. It’s simply a union of convenience. There will be no succession or political instability arising from it.
3. De facto independence for states, they would administer their own foreign policy and own man their own borders. Matters little if they aren’t internationally recognised. I’m speaking from an internal perspective.
4. Economic policies and trade wars would be regulated by conventions and summits between the respective heads of regions.
5. You can go and leave whenever you want, and if no one opposes your independence then be independent.
Also what’s wrong with an ethnicity diverging and splitting, it’s been happening for thousands of years and it’ll continue to happen long after we’re dead.Your idea is confederations is unique but its also naive as it can only work in an ideal world. When confederacy happens your 100% going to see multiple states refuse to join that confederacy or even leave it once they do #SOMEXIT. Thats going to be the death of a whole ethnicity and the start of divulgence of ethnicity and after a really long time, language.
It would also breed unhealthy competition. Regions under the current federal structure alreadywant nothing to do with each other. If we are seperating under federalism what makes you think confederations will work?
In my own opinion I think the best thing to do is to empower the people and let the people of every region decide their future via referendums and not leave it to politicians as they are often corrupted and motivates by money. If they leave, they leave. If they stay, they stay.
But then again my idea has issues itself because the UN will definitely NOT recognise 6-9 independent nations. and garnering support from the international community will be difficult. Ts could actually lead to internal civil war and in turn militias.
You also have issues like Economic cost. No investor is going to feel safe in a nation where succession and war is a looming threat. Your also going to have port wars between each somali region, trade tarrifs. I mean I cant even imagine the hassle of planes flying through that many EEZ zones. We will also be entirely exposed to foreign exploitation as they play divide and conquer 1000x worse than how they do rn.
But one thing is clear from history:
The more a country balkanises, the more likely it is to suffer long term instability, weaker global influence and also economic vulnerability.
edit: this is not me pandering for unity. im just calling out the many flaws in confederacy. Confederacy can only happen with peaceful talks and unity between different somali regions which also happen to be different countries. Knowing somalis that cannot happen. This topic is extremely nuanced and sensitive with many many issues for both unity and division
I have no idea, I just want to see a government that prioritises essential services and avoids clan discrimination.
1. Yep that is basically right. However the lack of a central authority will hinder the efficiency of any reponse as its needed to avoid delays and disorganisation. Imagine all the states in times of crisis making their own decisions… thats going to lead to even more crisis
2. A leaderless system in an ideal world makes sense especially for somalis. However each region will push for its own interests. These interests might not even align with other interestd leading to internal rivalries and competition.
3.tehy dont even have recognition from international community. These “independent” states will face severe economic and diplomatic isolation. No external powers will deal with them the same way they would to actual recognised states.
4. Icl this one could work. It just might be difficult to enforce without a centalised mechanism. Regions might negotiate in bad faith .
5. Fair enough. This makes sense.
This is federalism 2.0 just with the mental feeling that every clan is ruling itself
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Might happen sooner rather than later. I would give it 100 years. There will be a “darood” ethnicity “hawiye” “dir”. Ts might not even exist and fragment even more into subclans having their own ethnicity.
its going to be the end of 7000 years of somali people forming
.I mean to me thats a bit sad yk. I dont mind it happening later but with all of our quarrels and arguments and different origins i kind of like being somali and seeing people similar to me
rip somali ethnicity and homogenousity
They were horrible, I’d even attribute alot of the issues we had post-colonialism to them
I’m gonna dedicate a post to them today, make sure to read it.
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✪𝙎𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙯𝙯𝙖𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙖✪
We need to lace the canteen of the Somali parliament with ADHD medication unironically.
We need HSM to take 100mg Ritalin dose daily.
We need HSM to take 100mg Ritalin dose daily.
Sure it’ll be a watershed moment and all, but I don’t Somalis will disappear per se, Somali will just become like a macro ethnicity like Arab or Turkic or Germanic etc etcMight happen sooner rather than later. I would give it 100 years. There will be a “darood” ethnicity “hawiye” “dir”. Ts might not even exist and fragment even more into subclans having their own ethnicity.
its going to be the end of 7000 years of somali people forming
I mean to me thats a bit sad yk. I dont mind it happening later but with all of our quarrels and arguments and different origins i kind of like being somali and seeing people similar to me
rip somali ethnicity and homogenousity
Who would the monarchy be picked from? Who would you pick?
I have a better plan. Block Tiktok and Social Media access in Somalia and replace it with a controlled app that feeds everyone nationalistic content. Eventually we'll change the way the next generation thinks since they all spend way too much time on there. We'll have a Mass cultural revolution eventually. After that, they'll handle themselves. We'll have a country in 150 years or so.
At least there’s a format to improve upon1. Yep that is basically right. However the lack of a central authority will hinder the efficiency of any reponse as its needed to avoid delays and disorganisation. Imagine all the states in times of crisis making their own decisions… thats going to lead to even more crisis
2. A leaderless system in an ideal world makes sense especially for somalis. However each region will push for its own interests. These interests might not even align with other interestd leading to internal rivalries and competition.
3.tehy dont even have recognition from international community. These “independent” states will face severe economic and diplomatic isolation. No external powers will deal with them the same way they would to actual recognised states.
4. Icl this one could work. It just might be difficult to enforce without a centalised mechanism. Regions might negotiate in bad faith .
5. Fair enough. This makes sense.
This is federalism 2.0 just with the mental feeling that every clan is ruling itself
Myself. Only I can save our homeland.
I dont think so. We have oromos encroaching on every somali region. If ethiopia and bantus make some super confederation thats centralised walaal we are finished. Divide and conquer will happen and our leaderless confederation will break apart as they take lands. No one can say anything about it as well in this case.
