Why Does The World Not Intervene In Somalia?

[DR OSMAN]

This has baffled me the most. The world doesn't usually sit by idly in any other nation conflict whether in our continent or others.

This is the only country they have a policy of let Somalia resolve its issue. What's weird its the global policy also. I mean forget the behind the scene un official shit of certain Arab or Regional Neighbours, but at a global official angle, no joke they say we will not referee or decide a winner and loser or even a win win framework.

Even South Sudan warring Dinka and Nuer tribes were told both will be sanctioned pressuring them to cut a deal(fragile of course) but their actually using instruments to pressure a settlement.

They do the same for Ethiopia and Kenya anytime those countries are volatile.

They have alot of instruments they can use to have settled Somalia but choose not.too except the UN Arms Embargo which the world all observe and practise.

 

[DR OSMAN]

PL and JL need to present to Somalis and the world how Federalism addresses the root causes of Somali civil war such as lack of trust thru highly autonomous regions, and it solves conflicting clan and personal interests nation wide into a win win and shared losses not zero sum unlike other policies of secession, centralism, and colonial federation.

It also resolves the structural mistakes from Colonial/Civilian/Military. Or the absence of the state and structures during the civil war era.

As for the revenge mindset which effects alot of clan it needs a Justice framework guiding reconciliation for all or none not some across various layers socially.

How does the world sit back and tolerate non state actors such as terrorist and state actors in the nation sabotaging the Somali people from their federal destiny?

 

[DR OSMAN]

Call me weird or paranoid, I think the world intentionally sits back knowing nothing but Federalism can address Somalia internally and also Externally with the rules based order. I think they know it will work so well the nation may rise up and recover and become a powerhouse, I think that's the real reason they prefer the unsettled status to drag out what will eventually end in Federalism, they want us taking the longest path possible tho.

 

[DR OSMAN]

The political war ended in Somalia in 2004 with the introduction of @Kamaaludeen Al Reewin Rahanwayn leaders federation idea with a little twist from language to clan federalism.

The idea and framework stage is over, that boat has sailed, some detail areas just need settling like taxation, revenue sharing, aid allocation, borders, clear jurisdictions between states and federal, judicial, constitution, capital city status. These are the teething stages only, we are adding teeth to it, this isn't a framework stage, that shit ended in 20 years ago in 2004.

But their is rogue actors who have benefited from the world's hands off approach be it terrorist or state actors trying to reverse what is irreversible not because they really believe they can even they know that Federalism is set and done, they do it for personal interests serving their cash cow projects or their settling the scores be it clan or personal.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I have looked into the pre colonial era, colonial, civilian democratic era, military socialist era, and my personal expertise the civil war era(chaos), studying that chaos is my actual interest and I think it will be the biggest topic talked about for centuries to come among Somalis.

Each of the other eras kingdoms, colonial, civilian, military era are unique and I do study them where they have benefits and cancel out the losses, but what's unique about those periods and what they share in common their was structure and order, U can sit here choosing which era was good, bad, better but hey their was a goal post or framework and social order across them all. I stick to safety take the positives of each era and leave behind the negatives and blend it into an effective playbook.

What makes 91 era unique their is no goal post or structure or order but a complete absence of it. This also has its unique eras but mainly around disorder like warlords, terrorists, etc except 2004 when a goal post was set up called federalism and everyone had to work inside that framework.

People complain about the teething issues for 20 years thinking this means the goal post need to be torn down like 91, that discussion isn't on the table even if takes 100 years, the goal post won't change, so I warn the people who love tearing shit down, that option isn't on the table, U just wasting your time and the people thinking by stalling or going thru the longest path(causing instability whether terror or thru state actors and they possibly work together as their goals are the same) a political appetite will be lost for federalism, nah it won't ever be, I think it's safe to say it's eternal.

 

[Torti]

Reason why the world doesn't pick winners in the country is because they view all the actors as untrustworthy and as village idiots outside of their clan state. They did that in the 80s and 2000s when they used that support to try kill their rivals and it resulted in a massive disaster.

 

[CABDULWALI XASAN.]

Why should they intervene, everything is going well for any foreign country. Somalia is in a terrible state, the states are too powerful and challenge the national government. The nation government is incompetent.

I always see you talking about federalism and how it will solve the country, be honest @DR OSMAN , federalism is the system Somalia is currently using. Do you really think its helping? Even in puntland, you really think their developing at the rate they should be? the answer is NO.

To be fair, the system at the moment is very far from your traditional federalist system, Its dysfunctional.

The foreigners just throw some pocket change in aid and make dealings with the states to make sure somalia stays in this pitiful status quo. It benefits everyone but somalis.


Now whenever I critique federalism, im not calling for the centralism that some of you imagine in your heads. You must first think about what these two are and what they actually mean. Most centralist countries still allow regions to make their own decisions, there will still be regional rule. They will just have multiple less magnitudes in power compared to how things are set up now. In fact, theres nothing stopping somalia from have a mixed system. The best plan of action now is for HSM to get out, a good leader to step in split up the FMS, getting close to all the FMS leaders to do as you say. Build the military, government institutions and country services and get control of the country.

But let me return to the question, They have no need to intervene in the country, Why intervene when things are going good for them. This is real life buddy, even the aid its not even done with good intent and just reinforces this sick status quo

 

[DR OSMAN]

Why should they intervene, everything is going well for any foreign country. Somalia is in a terrible state, the states are too powerful and challenge the national government. The nation government is incompetent.

I always see you talking about federalism and how it will solve the country, be honest @DR OSMAN , federalism is the system Somalia is currently using. Do you really think its helping? Even in puntland, you really think their developing at the rate they should be? the answer is NO.

To be fair, the system at the moment is very far from your traditional federalist system, Its dysfunctional.

The foreigners just throw some pocket change in aid and make dealings with the states to make sure somalia stays in this pitiful status quo. It benefits everyone but somalis.


Now whenever I critique federalism, im not calling for the centralism that some of you imagine in your heads. You must first think about what these two are and what they actually mean. Most centralist countries still allow regions to make their own decisions, there will still be regional rule. They will just have multiple less magnitudes in power compared to how things are set up now. In fact, theres nothing stopping somalia from have a mixed system. The best plan of action now is for HSM to get out, a good leader to step in split up the FMS, getting close to all the FMS leaders to do as you say. Build the military, government institutions and country services and get control of the country.

But let me return to the question, They have no need to intervene in the country, Why intervene when things are going good for them. This is real life buddy, even the aid its not even done with good intent and just reinforces this sick status quo

So you do believe in the federal idea but don't like its current implementation of highly autonomous variant and prefer some type of blend between centralisation and decentralization. The federal govt was allocated 4 undisputed powers. 1. Currency. 2.Immigration. 3. Foreign affairs. 4. Federal army. What other functions do you seek to centralise and how will it remain federal in spirit and not just turn centralised with federalism being symbolic and ceromonial?

PL said many times the teething issues around taxation, revenue sharing, resources, and boundaries and jurisdictions between federal and regional can be discussed what works better at the regional or federal level or if a blend is better for some functions.

I think your highly brainwashed by the social media war craft by Mogadishu. I mean imagine the confidence in PL when they see how the already 4 functions designated as undisputed and in federal jurisdiction is itself absent like immigration, currency, national army, or performing horribly like foreign affairs.

How do you then can convince them to centralise even further functions to an incompetent villa Somalia who can't even do the current duties allocated? Blaming HSM is nonsense the calibre and talent in Mogadishu is low and has been since the four month war, it's not random or some bad individual, its systemic.

PL has punched way above its weight for the nation and built itself and even dedicated lots of time, money, and lives putting life into Mogadishu. How dare U just try to ignore or minimise stuff, what the hell has another Somali clan ever done for PL that is positive, it's always negative.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@CABDULWALI XASAN I mean look who is the foreign minister people like fiqi he maybe nice person character wise but his incompetent and every embassy is possibly just symbolic and has no go damn framework, policy objective and strategy or functional experts. These people don't know anything beyond mutual interest or transactional. This is known in foreign policy circles the lowest form of relationship. He doesn't know even allies and partner designation in foreign lingo term.

The guy doesn't even know geopolitics is about national or alliance objectives or a blend, he sees it like some arsenal or Manchester shit. He hasn't sat down with diplomats with actual talent and told him about the global theatre and it's ranking in its global or regional influence.

The Russia axis, The China axis, Western axis. Regional axis with various foot prints. Then the non aligned axis(majority of the world). If it was a pizza the globe 70% or more are non aligned(this means they flip flop where ever their objectives has the best return on investment). They don't know the big multilateral organisations such as WTO, IMF, World Bank, UN and even it's internal dimensions and order. They don't know China Nation Building Development Bank.

They don't know the military alliances whether global like NATO or regional. Continental and Regional bodies across every continent. They don't even know UN is general assembly and security council and veto council, even within the general assembly they don't see each as various weights. They don't set up a foreign policy guided by strategical objectives whether it's economical, security, knowledge transfer. They don't see which layer of the globe historical, cultural, continental, regional, political, religious level to target for maximum return on your foreign policy.

They don't select people at embassies with strategical minds and advisors who understand that country objectives long term or short and it's needs vs desires. They don't go to the rural heartland to learn the soul of that country so U adjust your communication to establish chemistry at a human level.

This isn't just foreign policy that is absolutely incompetent in the nation, every function the federal govt has in its jurisdiction lacks any framework(goal post), idea to policy selection lifecycle, performance measurement tools to extract it's return in investment on the policy goal over time. This is every department, all we see is empty suits and media engagement and people way outside their depth, their not even smart to conceal their outside their depth with strategical advisors and functional policy experts.

Somalia died when military regime ended, it's in this awful space of lack of human capital. The world is having a field day and some even say show mercy on them, the dumbest of all are in power there and trest them like functional retards.

 

[DR OSMAN]

For Federalism we have a commonality with federation worldwide to establish a working relationship globally and use that as an entry point and build from that into other areas where our strategical objectives merge with theirs. Areas where democracy is practised we can also penetrate those countries on mutual political philosophy to increase the grade of our democracy and human rights.

Areas where our economies can grow together is another potential building block(global powers or non aligned). Same with Security. Same with knowledge transfer U need to know the global foot print. It's then selecting which layer of the world can give us these critical objectives whether regional, continental, religious common blocs, shared history(colonial, previous or current kingdoms), non aligned, etc. You must refer to everyone as brothers in mankind(political philosophy commonality brothers, federal power structure commonality, regional and continental brothers as you share a common land vs brothers in religion. I mean we got a huge diaspora now in slot of countries, that has to be used also.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

This has baffled me the most. The world doesn't usually sit by idly in any other nation conflict whether in our continent or others.

This is the only country they have a policy of let Somalia resolve its issue. What's weird its the global policy also. I mean forget the behind the scene un official shit of certain Arab or Regional Neighbours, but at a global official angle, no joke they say we will not referee or decide a winner and loser or even a win win framework.

Even South Sudan warring Dinka and Nuer tribes were told both will be sanctioned pressuring them to cut a deal(fragile of course) but their actually using instruments to pressure a settlement.

They do the same for Ethiopia and Kenya anytime those countries are volatile.

They have alot of instruments they can use to have settled Somalia but choose not.too except the UN Arms Embargo which the world all observe and practise.

I mean those are two ethnicities fighting in Sudan? That looks like an organised conflict, almost civilized you might say.

In Somalia you have religious groups, criminal groups, clans, sub-clans, sub-sub-clans all forming their own militias/violent political enterprises (for example Al-Shabaab or Puntland). Somalia probably has the highest number of seperate armed groups in the world. There are also alliances between these factions that either permenant, conditional, or opportunistic.

There are too many sides to choose from and those sides can fracture into smaller groups at any moment, so the situation is a shifting quagmire where no one really knows what is going to happen next. There is misinformation everywhere and a constant fog of war . When a winner appears to be emerging, the losers form a temporary alliance to ensure the situation never resolves in a way that is disadvantageous to them.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I mean those are two ethnicities fighting in Sudan? That looks like an organised conflict, almost civilized you might say.

In Somalia you have religious groups, criminal groups, clans, sub-clans, sub-sub-clans all forming their own militias/violent political enterprises (for example Al-Shabaab or Puntland). Somalia probably has the highest number of seperate armed groups in the world. There are also alliances between these factions that either permenant, conditional, or opportunistic.

There are too many sides to choose from and those sides can fracture into smaller groups at any moment, so the situation is a shifting quagmire where no one really knows what is going to happen next. There is misinformation everywhere and a constant fog of war . When a winner appears to be emerging, the losers form a temporary alliance to ensure the situation never resolves in a way that is disadvantageous to them.

Do U predict another era to emerge like warlord(91 to 2006) to terror shift(2006 till now), in between those eras nothing has really changed in terms of objectives such as instability, conflict, looting(checkpoints to zakko), your right there is alot of various interests at a clan or sub clan context which shifts and is fluid and isn't always fixed and permanent but conditional(Plan B in the event Plan A doesn't work out) or opportunistic(personal, clan, family interests being served like corruption, scores settled, etc).

Even the opportunistic has dimensions scaling from personal, clan, to family interests and you can't predict where it shifts. That's definitely a good accurate description of the local context, the foreign context is a mixed bag of objectives but mostly containment so it doesn't spread or adding further fuel to encourage it but that's the goal post usually.

Other goal posts exist like Erdogan who wants to restore his sphere of influence before ottoman era not just here but globally especially around maritime routes which Muslims live in the vast majority of(well the important corridors Asia to Europe).

Abdillahi Yusuf did say I fear and wait for the next costume(shaatiyo) to be worn in Somali civil war.

 

[hayran]

Somalia was the first failure of the Bush family’s America world police project. Even Bush Jr wasn’t fully on board with his dads neoconservative interventionism idea after seeing what happened in 1993, he jumped back in when he realised that bombing brown people could get him re-elected.

1993 also affected the Clinton policy, they got averse to using any sort of military intervention. Nation building in Somalia wasn’t his project and he got fucked for it in his eyes. This stretches on into Obamas first term with Hillary as Sec of State, Obama had a shit foreign policy in general, fucked up on EVERYTHING, so of course he had no strategy or plan for the Somalia project. Just deferred to his secretaries and John Kerry probably just left it to his underlings, who left it to the AU and here we are.

All of this took place when American was the supreme global hegemon, before Chinas rise. They’ll pay less attention to the greater Middle East area to go all in on Asia, expect even less interest in Somali nation building as a whole. That whole idea was completely discredited in Afghanistan and Iraq, they won’t have much care to spare if it’s Somali edition doesn’t work

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalia was the first failure of the Bush family’s America world police project. Even Bush Jr wasn’t fully on board with his dads neoconservative interventionism idea after seeing what happened in 1993, he jumped back in when he realised that bombing brown people could get him re-elected.

1993 also affected the Clinton policy, they got averse to using any sort of military intervention. Nation building in Somalia wasn’t his project and he got fucked for it in his eyes. This stretches on into Obamas first term with Hillary as Sec of State, Obama had a shit foreign policy in general, fucked up on EVERYTHING, so of course he had no strategy or plan for the Somalia project. Just deferred to his secretaries and John Kerry probably just left it to his underlings, who left it to the AU and here we are.

All of this took place when American was the supreme global hegemon, before Chinas rise. They’ll pay less attention to the greater Middle East area to go all in on Asia, expect even less interest in Somali nation building as a whole. That whole idea was completely discredited in Afghanistan and Iraq, they won’t have much care to spare if it’s Somali edition doesn’t work

I kinda wish America retreats from its post WW2 interventionism which has many instruments such as aid, proxies, arms trade, sometimes political meddling to suit their security, business class interest, their definitely not about nation building I doubt that is an objective because the results says choose between becoming a crime scene or aid bag at least for the third world, they do use sanctions on countries who are mid tier like Iran and Russia and North korea.

It baffles me why we don't jump on the china boat like the ssa region has and let the west focus his efforts there in the mid east and we forge a new route with China. They seem to be more competent on most fronts and their 50 year rise to build what it took America 400 years speaks volumes. Their not great at pioneering or inventing but they do what exists well and excel at it and steal what they define as edges or innovation from the west without losing research money involved.

They know they lack a competitive advantage in the research and design side but they filled that vulnerability with a robust spy agency to steal it from other countries who have that competitive edge. Some say it's due to their political culture not being free some say it's cultural obedience and heirachical and creativity isn't something that is embedded culturally or as I say it's most likely a blend. But they did address that weakness so I don't see a huge issue in terms of their longevity.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Do U predict another era to emerge like warlord(91 to 2006) to terror shift(2006 till now), in between those eras nothing has really changed in terms of objectives such as instability, conflict, looting(checkpoints to zakko), your right there is alot of various interests at a clan or sub clan context which shifts and is fluid and isn't always fixed and permanent but conditional(Plan B in the event Plan A doesn't work out) or opportunistic(personal, clan, family interests being served like corruption, scores settled, etc).

Even the opportunistic has dimensions scaling from personal, clan, to family interests and you can't predict where it shifts. That's definitely a good accurate description of the local context, the foreign context is a mixed bag of objectives but mostly containment so it doesn't spread or adding further fuel to encourage it but that's the goal post usually.

Other goal posts exist like Erdogan who wants to restore his sphere of influence before ottoman era not just here but globally especially around maritime routes which Muslims live in the vast majority of(well the important corridors Asia to Europe).

Abdillahi Yusuf did say I fear and wait for the next costume(shaatiyo) to be worn in Somali civil war.

Only the FGS, Puntland and Somaliland can really take advantage of the middle power/great power/regional power era that is now emerging. Shipping lanes, regional security and spheres of influence etc. The FGS because of it's soveriegn rights over the sea and SL and PL because of their locations/land holdings.

Jubbaland I think gets taken down and south Somalia consolidates. It's not of vital interest to any foreign group, maybe just a 'nice to have' rather than a 'need to have' for Kenya. In this new environment there's obviously a incentive to manage a large land holding and there's power accruing to those who manage stable large land holdings that are of strategic importance. This means groups have an incentive to form more stable alliances as long as the rewards are evenly distributed.

The biggest potential winner is the FGS because it can scupper both SL and PL with its soveriegn powers unless SL or PL gain a great power ally that can't be messed with.




In the future the wars will be bigger and more organized, Lascaanood was maybe the first of the new kind of wars that will be fought in territory. Smaller groups will either be brushed aside or join with the bigger players. There's a lot to play for now, much more than local looting opportunities that was the old game.

 

[TheLand]

Dr Strange, stop asking for the white man to solve all your problems. Kacaanist anti-Islamic regime and mooriyaan looter Africans destroy Somalia and you want the white man to come and clean it up for you? They’ve been trying for decades but they are not your daddy and they don’t own or need Somalia. Clean up your own mess Dr, no more daddy and no more ‘ideas’. Get boots on the ground and get your hands dirty! You are typical Somali fadhi ku dirir armchair general and Monday morning quarterback who doesn’t want to do anything. What you do is like mental masturbation with your silly ideas instead of doing the real thing like a man. @Libaax-Joore Come talk to this guy he is always trying to sell his ridiculous ideas it’s like mental siigo for him. Isaga isdabsaara

 

[DR OSMAN]

Only the FGS, Puntland and Somaliland can really take advantage of the middle power/great power/regional power era that is now emerging. Shipping lanes, regional security and spheres of influence etc. The FGS because of it's soveriegn rights over the sea and SL and PL because of their locations/land holdings.

Jubbaland I think gets taken down and south Somalia consolidates. It's not of vital interest to any foreign group, maybe just a 'nice to have' rather than a 'need to have' for Kenya. In this new environment there's obviously a incentive to manage a large land holding and there's power accruing to those who manage stable large land holdings that are of strategic importance. This means groups have an incentive to form more stable alliances as long as the rewards are evenly distributed.

The biggest potential winner is the FGS because it can scupper both SL and PL with its soveriegn powers unless SL or PL gain a great power ally that can't be messed with.




In the future the wars will be bigger and more organized, Lascaanood was maybe the first of the new kind of wars that will be fought in territory. Smaller groups will either be brushed aside or join with the bigger players. There's a lot to play for now, much more than local looting opportunities that was the old game.

What U think of the non aligned world? It's definitely the global majority bloc, not sure of their collective economic and military position or their human capital and knowledge transfer potential. But jumping into global volatile world powers whether great, middle, regional hasn't given us any positive returns. I'm thinking of just adopting Oman neutral stance who seems to master it beautifully even in a very unstable region it seems to have the best stability long term wise. This 50/50 gamble of siding with people always leaves us worst off.

 

[Zak12]

What is there to intervene? The situation in Somalia is not nearly as dire as Sudan or Ethiopia from 2020-2022. And frankly speaking, America's history of intervention in Somalia has a terrible track record. That said, they don't really ignore it completely as seen with people like James Swan. If HSM oversteps his boundaries he will get the same fate as Farmajo.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Dr Strange, stop asking for the white man to solve all your problems. Kacaanist anti-Islamic regime and mooriyaan looter Africans destroy Somalia and you want the white man to come and clean it up for you? They’ve been trying for decades but they are not your daddy and they don’t own or need Somalia. Clean up your own mess Dr, no more daddy and no more ‘ideas’. Get boots on the ground and get your hands dirty! You are typical Somali fadhi ku dirir armchair general and Monday morning quarterback who doesn’t want to do anything. What you do is like mental masturbation with your silly ideas instead of doing the real thing like a man. @Libaax-Joore Come talk to this guy he is always trying to sell his ridiculous ideas it’s like mental siigo for him. Isaga isdabsaara

Trying to gain value thru insults or shock is a pretty low act and says alot about your capability, I mean U don't value add U value destroy. I'm not asking them to solve the problem but pick a winner and back the horse completely or come to the table and propose a win win framework as they have instruments they can use to create those conditions. The stalemate isn't in anyone benefit either someone wins and lose and zero sum or we cut our losses in win win, the rest is just stalemate heading nowhere but extinction.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

What U think of the non aligned world? It's definitely the global majority bloc, not sure of their collective economic and military position or their human capital and knowledge transfer potential. But jumping into global volatile world powers whether great, middle, regional hasn't given us any positive returns. I'm thinking of just adopting Oman neutral stance who seems to master it beautifully even in a very unstable region it seems to have the best stability long term wise. This 50/50 gamble of siding with people always leaves us worst off.

Well there is no 'us' there are various entities in the territory fighting for sovereignty. FGS, PL, JL, SL etc. If one group aligns it forces others to align too. FGS is fighting for sovereignty over all other entities, so it needs the best support. If SL aligns like with the MoU it force FGS to double up with Turkiye and Egypt. If FGS aligns then it forced PL to align.

Somalia doesn't exist if it did, it would be doing the same to any other country broken down and fractured.