2023 FGS Budget Review
- Thread starter Hilmaam
- Start date
To me this is garbage.. Making ridiculous assumptions with no data to back it and very suspect math on what they did for using Berbera port to get Mogadishu port numbers. Table above is pure garbage. Just column 1 alone is assuming we will make 5.2 billion in fees annually from trade with ethiopia and what we import internally.
Good pickup. You would think they would have accurate data on atleast Mogadishu port. You would think it's in their remit.
BTW, have I misunderstood this table? Are they saying Bosaso and Kismaayo port rake in 12.48mil per year? Some 200x times less than Mogadishu port?
TheLand
VIP
They are projecting that like a middle school project
They are making wild projections and assumptions. Right now Djibouti controls 90% of Ethiopian trade I’ve heard even higher and all the way up to 97%. I think Ethiopia pays somewhere between 1.6-2 billion in fees for this. This report assuming somalia going to take 80% of the trade. And that fees will almost triple To 5 billion.
the other ridiculous part of this is assuming how somali ports will divvy up the business . berbera and Garacad working to build corridor. While Mogadishu is mostly port for internal Somalia business I don’t know how it can secure Ethiopia business with all the security issues. But they basically said Mogadishu bring in 1.3x containers more than Berbera which I doubt. then multiply this by ratio to come up with how much of 80% market share they will get . it’s all ridiculous
