2023 FGS Budget Review

[Itsnotthateasy]

Overall its a good thing for these African countries to stop relying on handouts. Only 3 countries are exempt. Kenya and especially Ethiopia will experience a massive gap of revenue.

Any FMS can forget about receiving a red cent from FGS until further notice

I think US aid accounts for like 5% of Kenya government revenue, 10% of Ethiopia's, and maybe 400% of Somalia's.

Rough figures.

Hawiye mans you done messed up.

Maybe China got a spare billion dollars laying around somewhere? That money coming with a few pimp slaps though.

 

[Jungle]

I think US aid accounts for like 5% of Kenya government revenue, 10% of Ethiopia's, and maybe 400% of Somalia's.

Rough figures.

Hawiye mans you done messed up.

I think we are at the point where FGS can go up in flames before another darood sits in Villa Somalia. IC doesn't matter

 

[TheLand]

I think US aid accounts for like 5% of Kenya government revenue, 10% of Ethiopia's, and maybe 400% of Somalia's.

Rough figures.

Hawiye mans you done messed up.

Maybe China got a spare billion dollars laying around somewhere? That money coming with a few pimp slaps though.

I’m sure you and the rest of the SL crew in the council estates are having a party right now

 

[TheLand]

I think we are at the point where FGS can go up in flames before another darood sits in Villa Somalia. IC doesn't matter

Let’s be real, we all know that just means you will be under iidoor shabaab just like Godane era yaa kaaga futo xun. No more rag isla dabaasho. Do you really hate Darood that much?

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Not sure if true or begging bowl tactic

It is true. Many children have died of starvation and diseases caused by starvation.
Somalia is much much much poorer than most think. Somalia is the poorest country in the world if we consider food consumption. Central African Republic may be worse.

We are in big huge trouble in terms of food security.
We just don't have the money to feed ourselves.

 

[Hilmaam]

It is true. Many children have died of starvation and diseases caused by starvation.
Somalia is much much much poorer than most think. Somalia is the poorest country in the world if we consider food consumption. Central African Republic may be worse.

We are in big huge trouble in terms of food security.
We just don't have the money to feed ourselves.

that terrible thing to happen in 2025.if the aid gets cut and immigration to west blocked will only be downhill

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

that terrible thing to happen in 2025.if the aid gets cut and immigration to west blocked will only be downhill

Somali fantasy of self sufficiency is just that, a fantasy.
The $1 billion that donors send to Somalia each year is keeping millions of people alive.
If the US were to really cut aid, millions of Somalis would starve.

The EU is unlikely to fil in the gap vacated by the US.
This could be a disaster.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Somalia has been averaging $1.2 billion in annual aid over the past 9 years, with 60-70% of this coming from the US. This has been structurally baked into our economy. If this goes away, our economy may contract by more than 20%.

I am deeply afraid.

https://fts.unocha.org/countries/206/donors/2024?order=total_funding&sort=desc

 

[Abdifataax98]

Somalia has been averaging $1.2 billion in annual aid over the past 9 years, with 60-70% of this coming from the US. This has been structurally baked into our economy. If this goes away, our economy may contract by more than 20%.

I am deeply afraid.

View attachment 353399

https://fts.unocha.org/countries/206/donors/2024?order=total_funding&sort=desc

Nah. First of all, Somalia’s gdp is not $10 billion. The official # is $12.4 billion. If you include the black market, it’s at least $20 billion.

Secondly, it’s common knowledge that most of the aid is looted by a handful of politicians and businessmen, both in the donor and recipient countries. Most of it gets siphoned off and taken to offshore accounts before it even enters the recipient country. The total aid that actually enters the economy is barely 50% of the total amount. Even when it does, the local elites also take their cuts.

The effect it will have in the economy will be negligible(around 5%-10% at most).
In fact, it could actually be beneficial in the long term. The USA subsidizes its farmers and uses U.SAID to flood countries with cheap wheat which hurts local farmers and forces them out of business. This in turn makes the country even more dependent on U.S. aid. Cutting aid is actually a good thing in the long run.

The only sector I believe will truly be affected is the security sector. But FGS had 10 years and SL/PL had 25+ years to create a competent security sector. Maybe a survive or drown situation is necessary

 

[Aurelian]

Nah. First of all, Somalia’s gdp is not $10 billion. The official # is $12.4 billion. If you include the black market, it’s at least $20 billion.

Secondly, it’s common knowledge that most of the aid is looted by a handful of politicians and businessmen, both in the donor and recipient countries. Most of it gets siphoned off and taken to offshore accounts before it even enters the recipient country. The total aid that actually enters the economy is barely 50% of the total amount. Even when it does, the local elites also take their cuts.

The effect it will have in the economy will be negligible(around 5%-10% at most).
In fact, it could actually be beneficial in the long term. The USA subsidizes its farmers and uses U.SAID to flood countries with cheap wheat which hurts local farmers and forces them out of business. This in turn makes the country even more dependent on U.S. aid. Cutting aid is actually a good thing in the long run.

The only sector I believe will truly be affected is the security sector. But FGS had 10 years and SL/PL had 25+ years to create a competent security sector. Maybe a survive or drown situation is necessary

what you mean by common knowledge, you have studies backing this ?

 

[ggoat]

Somalia has been averaging $1.2 billion in annual aid over the past 9 years, with 60-70% of this coming from the US. This has been structurally baked into our economy. If this goes away, our economy may contract by more than 20%.

I am deeply afraid.

View attachment 353399

https://fts.unocha.org/countries/206/donors/2024?order=total_funding&sort=desc

Aid to Somali security apparatus will stop and all U.S troops are likely to withdraw from Somalia.
Keep a eye on potential meetings between HAG government and Qatar

 

[Midas]

Not sure if true or begging bowl tactic

I'm so confused about true these statsics wallahi. Didn't they put out a report like a year or 2 ago saying that it was 40k ? How did it jump to 70k ? In 2011 when it was truly catastrophic 250k people died . And it was all over the news and somali social media. Yet a drought that caused 70k deaths barely caused a stir in somali news ?

 

[TheLand]

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Nah. First of all, Somalia’s gdp is not $10 billion. The official # is $12.4 billion. If you include the black market, it’s at least $20 billion.

Somalia's GDP is fairly well measured as most transactions are done via mobile money. GDP data for Somalia in 2024 is probably about as accurate as developed world GDP data was in the 1980s, quite accurate.

Secondly, it’s common knowledge that most of the aid is looted by a handful of politicians and businessmen, both in the donor and recipient countries. Most of it gets siphoned off and taken to offshore accounts before it even enters the recipient country. The total aid that actually enters the economy is barely 50% of the total amount. Even when it does, the local elites also take their cuts.

A lot of the aid is stolen outright and much of it is spent on "overhead". This is true. Still, most of the aid does reach those in need and need targeting has been improving steadily over the years. Removing this aid will leave millions without food. Most of the aid does get through to those in need.

The effect it will have in the economy will be negligible(around 5%-10% at most).
In fact, it could actually be beneficial in the long term. The USA subsidizes its farmers and uses U.SAID to flood countries with cheap wheat which hurts local farmers and forces them out of business. This in turn makes the country even more dependent on U.S. aid. Cutting aid is actually a good thing in the long run.

The only sector I believe will truly be affected is the security sector. But FGS had 10 years and SL/PL had 25+ years to create a competent security sector. Maybe a survive or drown situation is necessary

Somalia will not be able to produce all the food it consumes in our lifetime. It will always be a net importer.

 

[Hilmaam]

 

[Hilmaam]

I'm so confused about true these statsics wallahi. Didn't they put out a report like a year or 2 ago saying that it was 40k ? How did it jump to 70k ? In 2011 when it was truly catastrophic 250k people died . And it was all over the news and somali social media. Yet a drought that caused 70k deaths barely caused a stir in somali news ?

The report number is from is here . They describe survey method to get to 70k. Eventually world becomes numb to it I guess. Like war and death in Sudan, Ethiopia, Ukraine , and Palestine no more boycotts and protests lately it’s just another day to world

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www.unicef.org

 

[Hilmaam]

Current somalia debt at the end of 2024. face value=original loan. Interest arears is interests added onto loan. Other fees . Total Debt stock is original loan plus interest plus other fees. 1.52 billion is currently owed by somalia. most of 4.5 billion debt forgiven was by america and russia. looks like arabs want their money plus crazy interest

 

[TheLand]

@Hilmaam You need to start uploading these entire reports to ChatGPT to analyze. I did that with this budget, very insightful. It said 55% of revenue is from grants which it doesn’t think is good for example. AI is truly magnificent.

 

[Hilmaam]

@Hilmaam You need to start uploading these entire reports to ChatGPT to analyze. I did that with this budget, very insightful. It said 55% of revenue is from grants which it doesn’t think is good for example. AI is truly magnificent.

100 AI very powerful I used it alot to get opinions on what govt budget should be for ocuntry or size and populations its very helpful

 

[TheLand]

100 AI very powerful I used it alot to get opinions on what govt budget should be for ocuntry or size and populations its very helpful

It can read reports in af Somali too and translate everything including insights into English