A $300 billion Economy for Somalia in 10 years?

[Yami]

Impossible

Are we even close to defeating Al Shabab?

Yeah

 

[Yami]

Mate be realistic Somalia will never exist in about 5 to 10 years

Country survived 21 years of anarchy + niggas in the north yelling ictraaf every two seconds with the world wearing noise canceling earbuds around em. Aint shit gonna happen

 

[SamaaleCushite]

good post sxb, but sadly it ends up with leadership and clan afiliation. The best course of action is a military man holding full control of a maamul (jublanad,sws,hirshabeele) if a strong minded military man / machiavelian poltician controls these and makes sure every clan elder in the area is under strict orders from the maamul government. (He must have a strong non qabiil affiliated army to put down clan moryaans ofc).

If he also promises freedom of movement , investment , property rights and bans clan based discrimination where from the issa in djibouti to the ogaden in garrisa can easily invest in the region without issue, then and only then can we begin to improve.

He can also export his ideas through his affiliates and give them money and arms to do the same in other regions within a few decades a strong and efficent centralised system will control central - south somalia (ofc it must be meritrocractic).

If people see development , a just system and no cunsurinimo they will rally to your cause and will join you.

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[Three Moons]

The pessimistic brothers in this topic don’t even realise that by simply erasing Somalia’s debt in 2024 and giving the country access to international finance institutions for major infrastructure projects, the country will by default enjoy a minimum of 10% annual growth even with the possibility of corruption;


$38.5 billion year 1

$42.3 billion year 2

$46.5 billion year 3

$51.1 billion year 4

$56.1 billion year 5

$61.8 billion year 6

$67.98 billion year 7

$74.77 billion year 8

$82.24 billion year 9

$90.4 billion year 10

That equals a per capita income rise to $5317. What’s even more promising is that this growth isn’t even factoring in a Somali government that introduces sound fiscal policies like taxes on par with the region or the world, which would quadruple the annual budget, decrease inflation and make the average shilling more valuable.

Now, where it really gets interesting is how high Somalia could push their double digit growth figure in such a scenario, because I believe that there are multiple sectors that will fire up the economy, be it agricultural surplus, residential construction, fisheries, international ports, aviation, manufacturing, flagship infrastructure projects, telecommunications, etc.

The original figure is not farfetched, countries in worse positions (war-torn South Korea, war-torn Vietnam, war-torn Colombia) did exactly that.

 

[Basra]

Currently GDP PPP stands at $32 billion and most likely is closer to the $50 billion mark with a proper rebase. A $300 billion economy with a population of 20 million (in 2033) equals a per capita income of $15000. In just 10 years Somalia would have graduated to a high income country. The nominal figures would equally be impressive for a post-war country.

All we have to do to reach these numbers is 10X everything we today, and its hilarious how little we are actually doing. The establishment of just four or five industrial parks complete with their own power plants, the attachment of a dozen international shipping lines to Somali Ports with shipyards and tanking facilities, a Green Revolution in the agricultural sector with irrigation zones and dams, a strong Blue Economy via our marine resources, the transformation of the livestock economy with ranches, meat processing factories and grazing zones, the modernisation of our cities with Central Business Districts attracting FDI and foreign companies, banks, hubs, etc and the cultivation of a robust tourism section catering to the diaspora would add tens of billions of dollars to the economy.

The Somali Economy has been stumbling along in the last decades like a zombie in MJ’s Thriller music video but I predict the next 10 years to be really exciting and transformational for the Somali people as a whole if they grab their destiny with both hands and don’t fumble the bag insha’allah.

View attachment 301389

 

[Three Moons]

View attachment 301431

While I think its inhumane and gross to use the situation of these kids to score a point, it still doesn’t change a single point I said in any of my posts with regards to the future, as these kids are in a destitute situation due to the bad political decisions made in the past and not a lack of economic resources or future potential.

The IDPs should be tending to their farms, livestock, and in the case of the kids they should be in education. When their regions are fully liberated, the government can initiate a program to return them to their respective regions.

 

[Basra]

While I think its inhumane and gross to use the situation of these kids to score a point, it still doesn’t change a single point I said in any of my posts with regards to the future, as these kids are in a destitute situation due to the bad political decisions made in the past and not a lack of economic resources or future potential.

The IDPs should be tending to their farms, livestock, and in the case of the kids they should be in education. When their regions are fully liberated, the government can initiate a program to return them to their respective regions.

 

[Hotchick12]

Major plus to the civil war is that we have a massive diaspora, bigger than many African countries, and they are not likely to assimilate to the other people in the next 50 years

 

[Three Moons]

Another plus for Somalia’s potential Industrial Revolution is that it has a sizeable population that can justify industrial parks that will have an immediate impact on the average household income and at the same time has multiple national assets that have global strategic value and which it can use to negotiate and attract mega-projects.

For example, the Northeast region of Somalia has the highest windspeeds in the world, perfect for a 5000MW wind farm. That same region also has a deepwater port. The Somali government could negotiate a deal with China where they would establish one of the largest windfarms in Africa in return for managing the port of Bosaso and attaching it to the multitrillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

Similarly, Turkey is eager to establish a spaceport on the Equator. Somalia could lease them land in the vicinity of Kismayo with the condition that they built a 1000km railway system to connect every major city from South to North.

This tactic could be repeated across the country to establish hydroelectric dams, solar projects, BRTs, LRTs, etc.

A national grid with a 10000MW capacity would be truly transformational to the average person and give the country one of the highest electrification rates in Africa, and the cost to do it is not even that high. Egypt with little to no resources is doing exactly that with renewables.

 

[Khaem]

Another plus for Somalia’s potential Industrial Revolution is that it has a sizeable population that can justify industrial parks that will have an immediate impact on the average household income and at the same time has multiple national assets that have global strategic value and which it can use to negotiate and attract mega-projects.

For example, the Northeast region of Somalia has the highest windspeeds in the world, perfect for a 5000MW wind farm. That same region also has a deepwater port. The Somali government could negotiate a deal with China where they would establish one of the largest windfarms in Africa in return for managing the port of Bosaso and attaching it to the multitrillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

Similarly, Turkey is eager to establish a spaceport on the Equator. Somalia could lease them land in the vicinity of Kismayo with the condition that they built a 1000km railway system to connect every major city from South to North.

This tactic could be repeated across the country to establish hydroelectric dams, solar projects, BRTs, LRTs, etc.

A national grid with a 10000MW capacity would be truly transformational to the average person and give the country one of the highest electrification rates in Africa, and the cost to do it is not even that high. Egypt with little to no resources is doing exactly that with renewables.

But what about millitary? We still need to xoog Xabashi and Bantu eventually.

 

[Three Moons]

 

[HuunoHunter]

But what about millitary? We still need to xoog Xabashi and Bantu eventually.

 

[Khaem]

The day is coming

 

[Emir of Zayla]

I think that’s a bit too fast for any country, not even the 4 Asian Tigers progressed that fast. Though we can get into maybe 40-50 bil by the end of the decade or by 2035 (I guess?). That’d already be great enough progress and speed:

 

[Emir of Zayla]

But what about millitary? We still need to xoog Xabashi and Bantu eventually.

We should throw all the young and bored adults into the military/army department. It’ll help both the government, the citizens and the youth as the government gets its army, the citizens get protection and the young adults have a job and steady flow of cash + respect.

 

[Three Moons]

I think that’s a bit too fast for any country, not even the 4 Asian Tigers progressed that fast. Though we can get into maybe 40-50 bil by the end of the decade or by 2035 (I guess?). That’d already be great enough progress and speed:

Its good to have a high goal so that even if you don’t completely reach it, you will have made immense progress by trying. BTW South Korea did it in 14 years:

 

[hinters]

I'm grateful Somalia is not insanely resource rich like Congo, we'd never find peace.

 

[Internet Nomad]

But what about millitary? We still need to xoog Xabashi and Bantu eventually.

Will we finally be free?

 

[Internet Nomad]

Its good to have a high goal so that even if you don’t completely reach it, you will have made immense progress by trying. BTW South Korea did it in 14 years:

View attachment 301480

South korea was carried by america to the top.

South Korea, benefited from big injections of foreign aid, first from the US, then Japan. A briefing paper from KoFID, a South Korean network of civil society organisations, and ReDI, a South Korean thinktank, points out that the US offered about $60bn in grants and loans to South Korea between 1946 and 1978. In the same period, the total amount of aid provided by the US to the entire African continent was $68.9bn.

 

[Three Moons]

South korea was carried by america to the top.

Yes, but not for the reason you quoted. In terms of total FDI received, South Korea ranks below even Vietnam and Indonesia despite outperforming the latter two on every economic metric. What really set them apart from other Asian countries, outside of Japan, is access to the American and European economies. That’s when all of their Chaebols started booming and became the global household names like LG, Samsung, Hyundai, KiA, etc.

The moment China opened up during the Nixon years and adopted a capitalist faux communist economic policy they enjoyed the greatest growth in human history lifting half a billion people out of poverty.