A C.I.A. Fighter, a Somali Bomb Maker, and a Faltering Shadow War

[Thegoodshepherd]

A C.I.A. Fighter, a Somali Bomb Maker, and a Faltering Shadow War

 

[repo]

Excerpts

As a result, Al Shabab are at their strongest in years. They roam the countryside, bomb cities and run an undercover state, complete with courts, extortion rackets and parallel taxes, that netted at least $120 million last year, by American government estimates.

Biden administration officials deny the mission in Somalia has failed, but they say they are cleareyed about its shortcomings. The administration could unveil a new Somalia policy in coming weeks, some officials said.

Dual-track?

Somalia’s national army officially has 24,000 troops, but in reality is one-fifth that size, a senior American official said.

Biometric ID isn't working?

American analysts estimate that Al Shabab command anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 fighters. Under Mr. Mohamed, their bombs have grown more sophisticated and powerful.

Up from 3,000.

American officials proposed slapping sanctions on Mr. [Fahad Yasin] to force him to back down, two Western officials said. But the C.I.A. staunchly opposed the idea, apparently to protect its counterterrorism interests.

Fahad Yasin is CIA backed.

A C.I.A. Fighter, a Somali Bomb Maker, and a Faltering Shadow War (Published 2021)

The hunt for an elusive Somali militant illustrates why Al Shabab, despite a decade of American covert action, are at their strongest in years.

www.nytimes.com

 

[DR OSMAN]

That's what I was telling @Murax it's not about how popular a leader is but what lasting legacy they leave behind. Abdillahi Yusuf might not be popular but he put Somalia back on the map and international stage and in Villa Somalia. Was he popular? no but he left a lasting legacy that other administrations carried on from.

Did those administration achieve anything after abdillahi yusuf, let's be honest of course not shabab grew sophisticated, bombings increased, they can source intel where-ever govt officials are located or what their doing, they run kangaroo courts, they extort the people of mogadishu. So Farmajo and administrations before him were more liked by the population but don't translate that into meaning he left any sort of legacy other then shabab becoming far stronger under his helm.

I hope in this election Somalis select a guy like abdillahi yusuf who begins a shabab clean up

 

[Periplus]

As much as this is prime FKD material, it is obviously cap. Foreign newspapers have been at pains to avoid underestimating Al-Shabaab like they did with the Taliban to the extent of over-exaggeration.

One fifth of 24,000 is approx 5k troops. The Camp TURKSOM troops are 5K let alone those in Turkey.

Just that alone turned me off this article.

 

[repo]

As much as this is prime FKD material, it is obviously cap. Foreign newspapers have been at pains to avoid underestimating Al-Shabaab like they did with the Taliban to the extent of over-exaggeration.

One fifth of 24,000 is approx 5k troops. The Camp TURKSOM troops are 5K let alone those in Turkey.

Just that alone turned me off this article.

An article written by 3 respected journalists turned me off kulahaa.

 

[Periplus]

An article written by 3 respected journalists turned me off kulahaa.

There were many world-class journalists claiming that Iraq had WMDs. Your point?

They had to apologise publicly and admit that they received biased information about Iraq.

Journalists are not policy analysts.

I am a longtime NYT subscription holder, I have the utmost respect for journalists at that institution. However, that does not mean their journalists will always come correct.

 

[repo]

There were many world-class journalists claiming that Iraq had WMDs. Your point?

Journalists are not policy analysts.

I am a longtime NYT subscription holder, I have the utmost respect for journalists at that institution. However, that does not mean their journalists will always come correct.

They are correct. The SNA are soldiers on paper.

All these deficiencies mean that, even if it has some 23,000–27,000 soldiers, a far smaller number of SNA fighters are actually capable of military operations against al-Shabaab. The army has struggled to defend its forward operating bases, let alone surrounding territories. Forward operating bases are regularly overrun and destroyed by al-Shabaab; thus, the SNA is often forced to pay off al-Shabaab units operating in the region to avoid an attack. At the end of 2019, the SNA’s military operations to secure the arteries out of Mogadishu ground to a halt, as nearly 40 per cent of the force tasked with that mission simply disappeared.

https://i.unu.edu/media/cpr.unu.edu/post/3895/HybridConflictSomaliaWeb.pdf

 

[reer]

An article written by 3 respected journalists turned me off kulahaa.

pure cap. shabab are significantly weaker than they were in 2012. and much more financially weaker. they lost a crapton of ports.

 

[repo]

pure cap. shabab are significantly weaker than they were in 2012. and much more financially weaker. they lost a crapton of ports.

It's in the article.

The group uses its hold on Mogadishu port to smuggle in large volumes of explosive materials and Chinese-made trigger devices, two U.S. officials said. Last October, Somali authorities intercepted 79 tons of sulfuric acid, an ingredient in roadside bombs.

A Somali intelligence officer in an interview listed the Shabab tax rates at Mogadishu port — $90 to import a regular container; $150 for a large one. He produced a neatly written receipt, provided by a city resident, for a $250 payment to register a recent land sale on the edge of Mogadishu — made out to Al Shabab.

 

[AMusee]

As much as this is prime FKD material, it is obviously cap. Foreign newspapers have been at pains to avoid underestimating Al-Shabaab like they did with the Taliban to the extent of over-exaggeration.

One fifth of 24,000 is approx 5k troops. The Camp TURKSOM troops are 5K let alone those in Turkey.

Just that alone turned me off this article.

NYT is known cia propaganda. Ever since Somalia has demanded amisom to leave and especially defence pact with Turkey, expect this propaganda to increase.

 

[reer]

It's in the article.

bs. the amount of port revenue lost is staggering. they have not gained strength. but the battle is a stalemate.
buurgaabo port revenue
kismayo port revenue
barawe port revenue
marka port revenue
mogadishu port revenue

 

[Periplus]

They are correct. The SNA are soldiers on paper.

https://i.unu.edu/media/cpr.unu.edu/post/3895/HybridConflictSomaliaWeb.pdf

Have you even read this article?

They are claiming Al-Shabaab has extensive networks in Puntland and that Puntland has failed to get rid of the popular pirates.

The article also claims that Puntland and civil liberties cannot be put in the same sentence.

 

[repo]

bs. the amount of port revenue lost is staggering. they have not gained strength. but the battle is a stalemate.
buurgaabo port revenue
kismayo port revenue
barawe port revenue
marka port revenue
mogadishu port revenue

They went from 3,000 pre Farmajo to 7,000 post Farmajo. Their revenue is also up. Maybe that new strength went to tax collection.

 

[repo]

Have you even read this article?

They are claiming Al-Shabaab has extensive networks in Puntland and that Puntland has failed to get rid of the popular pirates.

The article also claims that Puntland and civil liberties cannot be put in the same sentence.

I read the article. Shabaab doesn't control any territory in Puntland. Pressing FIND and searching Puntland isn't going to change the subject.

 

[reer]

They went from 3,000 pre Farmajo to 7,000 post Farmajo. Their revenue is also up. Maybe that new strength went to tax collection.

thats bs. no way their revenue is up. even with the raised taxes the revenue cannot touch when they had multiple posts. stick whatever happens north of the galkayo border sxb.

 

[repo]

thats bs. no way their revenue is up. even with the raised taxes the revenue cannot touch when they had multiple posts. stick whatever happens north of the galkayo border sxb.

SNA can't even hold territory it captures without AMISOM and has been in a stalemate since 2015. How are you this delusional?

 

[reer]

SNA can't even hold territory it captures without AMISOM and has been in a stalemate since 2015. How are you this delusional?

revenue has not risen. when amisom leave the south will return to 2008/09. but they have not gained strength. since they were ousted from bardera in 2015 there has been no large scale territorial gains. its a stalemate that will be broken when amisom leave.

 

[AMusee]

I read the article. Shabaab doesn't control any territory in Puntland. Pressing FIND and searching Puntland isn't going to change the subject.

So what they said about Puntland is a lie but you are sure everything else is true.

Your statement confirms that this article is propaganda aimed at Somalia and that you are inconsistent at best, your contradicting yourself in a desperate attempt at a smear.

Propganda backfired on you.

 

[Periplus]

I read the article. Shabaab doesn't control any territory in Puntland. Trying to move the goalpost isn't going to help you here.

Take it from someone that specialised in policy, an academic paper does not reflect reality on the ground.

Case in point:

They round up people from neighbourhoods and place them in detention without charges for days. As a Western law enforcement advisor put it: “You can’t put the words ‘civil liberties’ and ‘Puntland’ together in the same sentence.”

Al-Shabaab remains mobile, adaptable and very well organized and trained. It runs large and effective training facilities in Puntland and southern Somalia.

Critically, the pirate networks retain popular and political support. The vast sums of wealth and economic activity they brought to poor, remote fishing villages and other parts of Puntland translated into significant local and clan political capital.

These quotes are all false but remain in the report.

Why? Because many policy analysts who never go to Somalia rely on outdated or biased sources for their academic papers.

 

[repo]

So what they said about Puntland is a lie but you are sure everything else is true.

Your statement confirms that this article is propaganda aimed at Somalia and that you are inconsistent at best.

You and your buddy @Periplus are both stupid. I don't dismiss an article because it criticizes Puntland. It was a cute attempt.