A C.I.A. Fighter, a Somali Bomb Maker, and a Faltering Shadow War

[repo]

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I understand the fear, I'd probably do the same in those circumstances.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

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Alshabab has access to the manifest of every whip that docks at Mogadishu port. They know who is responsible for paying the goods dues and handling charge. They then simply send the importer a receipt.

You cannot do business in the south without paying Alshabab. They know everyone who owns every truck carrying goods out of Xamar and can call them and ask who it is they are transporting the goods for. They will then call the merchant in Beledweyne or Baydhabo and tell them to wire the tax money even before he gets his shipment.

I am willing to bet my life they have a database of some kind where they keep track of all this. This level of sophistication was created during Farmaajo's tenure. The port was always getting taxed, and trucks always had to pay to access various areas. The connecting of port data and inland taxation is fairly new, past 5 years.

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

I believe Somalia's so-called intelligence agency is run by AlShaydaan.
AlShaydaan didn't become this sophisticated without help from insiders.

 

[FBIsomalia]

I believe Somalia's so-called intelligence agency is run by AlShaydaan.
AlShaydaan didn't become this sophisticated without help from insiders.

Ikraan case as example.

 

[TekNiKo]

Alshabab has access to the manifest of every whip that docks at Mogadishu port. They know who is responsible for paying the goods dues and handling charge. They then simply send the importer a receipt.

You cannot do business in the south without paying Alshabab. They know everyone who owns every truck carrying goods out of Xamar and can call them and ask who it is they are transporting the goods for. They will then call the merchant in Beledweyne or Baydhabo and tell them to wire the tax money even before he gets his shipment.

I am willing to bet my life they have a database of some kind where they keep track of all this. This level of sophistication was created during Farmaajo's tenure. The port was always getting taxed, and trucks always had to pay to access various areas. The connecting of port data and inland taxation is fairly new, past 5 years.

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[reer]

Alshabab has access to the manifest of every whip that docks at Mogadishu port. They know who is responsible for paying the goods dues and handling charge. They then simply send the importer a receipt.

You cannot do business in the south without paying Alshabab. They know everyone who owns every truck carrying goods out of Xamar and can call them and ask who it is they are transporting the goods for. They will then call the merchant in Beledweyne or Baydhabo and tell them to wire the tax money even before he gets his shipment.

I am willing to bet my life they have a database of some kind where they keep track of all this. This level of sophistication was created during Farmaajo's tenure. The port was always getting taxed, and trucks always had to pay to access various areas. The connecting of port data and inland taxation is fairly new, past 5 years.

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[IPushFatKids]

Disrupting al shababs extortion racket seems rather straight forward. Is there even a task force dedicated to tackling this problem? Protecting shipping manifests seems to be a very simple problem to solve. I find it truly bizarre

 

[GemState]

I didn't think Farmaajo could do much against shabaab, but he surprised me, I didn't think he was so incompetent as to actually make shabaab as strong as they were pre 2014.

I distinctly remember hsm's admin getting a lot of shit for not doing enough against shabaab (a fair criticism, for the record), but compare this admin's gains v shabaab against Hsm, nearly half a decade in charge and all we have to show for it is Jamaame

Genuinely appalling, he should be sent to a gulag for that alone

 

[Periplus]

I didn't think Farmaajo could do much against shabaab, but he surprised me, I didn't think he was so incompetent as to actually make shabaab as strong as they were pre 2014.

I distinctly remember hsm's admin getting a lot of shit for not doing enough against shabaab (a fair criticism, for the record), but compare this admin's gains v shabaab against Hsm, nearly half a decade in charge and all we have to show for it is Jamaame

Genuinely appalling, he should be sent to a gulag for that alone

There is a reason why AS was successful in 2007 but not in the 90s. Same reason why AS is more deadly under Farmaajo than HSM.

Terror groups cannot operate in failed states.

 

[GemState]

There is a reason why AS was successful in 2007 but not in the 90s. Same reason why AS is more deadly under Farmaajo than HSM.

Terror groups cannot operate in failed states.

This is the stupidest fucking thing I've read,

'shabaab are far stronger than before because Somalia isn't a failed state under Farmaajo'

The mental gymnastics to come to that conclusion, I am genuinely impressed

 

[Periplus]

This is the stupidest fucking thing I've read,

'shabaab are far stronger than before because Somalia isn't a failed state under Farmaajo'

The mental gymnastics to come to that conclusion, I am genuinely impressed

No, I wasn’t talking about Farmaajo per se. I don’t care for him.

This is something that is considered basic knowledge in International Relations.

Terror groups get stronger as a state moves from failed state to weak state until it becomes a stable state in which it will decline in power.

This is because terror groups rely on infiltrating government institutions and existing networks. They can’t do that in a failed state.

A stable state has enough checks and balances as well as accountability to make sure its institutions and networks aren’t exploited.

NISA is a perfect example, it is a weak organisation which means it will get infiltrated a lot. However, 5 years ago it barely existed meaning there was barely an organisation to infiltrate.

I am speaking common sense here.

 

[GemState]

No, I wasn’t talking about Farmaajo per se. I don’t care for him.

This is something that is considered basic knowledge in International Relations.

Terror groups get stronger as a state moves from failed state to weak state until it becomes a stable state in which it will decline in power.

This is because terror groups rely on infiltrating government institutions and existing networks. They can’t do that in a failed state.

A stable state has enough checks and balances as well as accountability to make sure its institutions and networks aren’t exploited.

NISA is a perfect example, it is a weak organisation which means it will get infiltrated a lot. However, 5 years ago it barely existed meaning there was barely an organisation to infiltrate.

I am speaking common sense here.

somalia as a state stopped being a failed one in 2012, tell me how is it the somali state is less capable and shabaab stronger now in comparison to 2017 when Farmaajo took over.

 

[Periplus]

somalia as a state stopped being a failed one in 2012, tell me how is it the somali state is less capable and shabaab stronger now in comparison to 2017 when Farmaajo took over.

It is very simple.

The more institutions set up in a fragile state means more avenues for a terror group to infiltrate.

Terror groups cannot operate in anarchy or stability but can operate in fragility.

The period from fragility to stability is where government establishes more institutions. There are more government institutions, more soldiers, more roads, more people, more connections in 2017 than 2012.

This trend will continue until Somalia becomes stable.

However, this does not excuse corruption, dictatorial behaviour or incompetence in the FGS.

 

[Kanan]

H

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How many years did you stay in Mogadishu and have you ever paid them off for protection?

 

[Kanan]

There is a reason why AS was successful in 2007 but not in the 90s. Same reason why AS is more deadly under Farmaajo than HSM.

Terror groups cannot operate in failed states.

Advance in technology, communication and internet. If we had social media in 1980s Somalia as we know it today would been very different. Soft power is real regime change can be planned through Twitter.

 

[Periplus]

Advance in technology, communication and internet. If we had social media in 1980s Somalia as we know it today would been very different. Soft power is real regime change can be planned through Twitter.

Imagine the qabiil wars of the 1990s if Twitter existed back then.

Half of this forum would get arrested for supporting USC.

 

[Kanan]

Imagine the qabiil wars of the 1990s if Twitter existed back then.

Half of this forum would get arrested for supporting USC.

If social media existed in the 80s I doubt Siad Barre would last till 90s. The Somali government managed to keep all atrocities under the rug because state had totally monopoly over media. We're talking about a time the main methods of communication are written letters or bulky video taps/cassettes.


The IC would've step in early had sharing viral videos been a thing.

 

[Periplus]

If social media existed in the 80s I doubt Siad Barre would last till 90s. The Somali government managed to keep all atrocities under the rug because state had totally monopoly over media. We're talking about a time the main methods of communication are written letters or bulky video taps/cassettes.


The IC would've step in early had sharing viral videos been a thing.

If social media existed back then, the US might’ve lost the Cold War.

Social media would have exposed the corrupt and despotic regimes the US was propping up in comparison to the communist nations.

The coverage of the Cold War would have been similar to today and would have meant either a more ambivalent or more critical public opinion towards the US in the Cold War.

 

[Kanan]

If social media existed back then, the US might’ve lost the Cold War.

Social media would have exposed the corrupt and despotic regimes the US was propping up in comparison to the communist nations.

The coverage of the Cold War would have been similar to today and would have meant either a more ambivalent or more critical public opinion towards the US in the Cold War.

The moment softie Gorbachev become president in 1985 USSR was destined to fall. I can see no way USSR would defeat America especially when they got pulled into Afghan quick sand till 1989.



If Social media existed in the past Mudug atrocities would've gain international attention. You'd have diaspora/activists tweeting about slain relatives and pictures will surface of mass graves and destroyed water reservoirs by the government. Tigray war had many such videos of mass executions everyone knows about what's happening in Ethiopia.




1988 we got government offichals denying arial bombardments of the 2nd capital live on TV. That shit wouldn't fly if social media existed back than. Remember how Assad was linked with barrel bombs in early 2010s, Barre would've gotten the same negative attention but fact is a lot of countries still supported him until US cut him off completely in 1989.

As much as people rave about social media it completely changed our world today with a click of a button information travels to thousands of people. Average person has a camera and can document events in their surroundings.

 

[reer]

somalia as a state stopped being a failed one in 2012,

somalia as a state stopped being a failed one