A dying society- Somalia.

[Xaawotaako]

Things I have observed during my time in Mogadishu. We have no ministry of education as we once had. Many children don’t go to school. There are private schools that some individuals open (without any guidelines) and they cost a lot of money for already struggling families. We have many kids addicted to glue. Criminals roam the streets and it’s wild out there. The president is a thief and recently had hundreds of millions of dollars frozen in Swiss bank. Everyone is trying to screw you out of your money somehow. But the saddest thing of all is seeing the young people growing up in Somalia without education. All this is because of greed and corruption. There are a lot of new buildings that have gone up in recent years, but the place is filthy, garbage littered everywhere. We use to have robust farming industry and good water systems. But now all that has been destroyed and we import our fruits and veggies.
Woman are dying giving birth, because we have some random Egyptian dr operating privately at the hospital and no ministry of health to look into what is going on in the hospitals. Somalis need to really need to open their eyes and look to the future. There is a lot of potential but if the young people have no opportunity for education, the future of Somalia is doomed.

 

[Devilsadvocate]

The people of Xamar have completely lost hope in the FGS. Whether it was Farmaajo yesterday or HSM today, they know the government and the politicians are all out for their own pockets. It’s sad when I go back and speak to locals, they just want a competent government and to have their basic necessities met. It's so jarring when I see all the igu sawir these politicians put out.

 

[Garsoore]

I'm still shocked with the kids sniffing glue. I've only seen this phenomenon in Mogadishu only though

 

[Pastoralist]

The people of Xamar have completely lost hope in the FGS. Whether it was Farmaajo yesterday or HSM today, they know the government and the politicians are all out for their own pockets. It’s sad when I go back and speak to locals, they just want a competent government and to have their basic necessities met. It's so jarring when I see all the igu sawir these politicians put out.

Farmaajo himself sought to bring public ownership of institutions which were private in Somalia like schools, hospitals, and social housing. Which shouldn’t be monopolized by an individual.

he launched the first education curriculum in the country since 1991, since then there was no uniform system, just private entities in the country making kids pay, there still is by a large margin. Though his work was a start.

Somali President launches over one million books for primary schools

MOGADISHU (HOL) -Somali President Mohamed Farmaajo Saturday unveiled over one million primary school books targeting 300,000 pupils countrywide.

www.hiiraan.com

 

[Idilinaa]

The swiss bank story wasn't true, it was published and taken down by a Somaliland propaganda news site, haven't seen confirmations about it. But there was a report about 60 million transferred from a Turkey oil company into a Bank account co-owned by HSM daughter and son that was frozen in Djibouti.

I wouldn't say Somalia is a dying society. Quite on the contrary it's in many ways a thriving society fueled by the private sector activity and growing local and diaspora investment. That in of itself shows you that the problem doesn't lie on the Somali people , who are trying to do what they can to navigate around the political situation. Showing that Somali businesses are very capable and motivated to improve the country.

The dilemma here is that we can't fix everything privately. Education and Health Care shouldn't be supported by private citizens and businesses, it should be supported by government. It should all be public and accessible and affordable to everyone. Heck even most of the security services seems to be private as well, which is also big no no.

The private sector even picked up the slack of paving roads, cleaning up many of the districts and fixing old sewage/drainage systems


But this is also not very sustainable, it should be the public sectors job to constantly fund the maintenance and repair of these infrastructure services.

The public sector especially in Mogadishu, FGS is weak and almost none existent in terms of function and the reason being is that it's an externally imposed government that was put in place by the UN after US/Ethiopia outsted the locally derived ICU government. It's corrupt and weak precisely because outsiders fund it, protect it and prop it. Local Somalis have no accountability mechanism, we are not it's funding source and they never selected or voted these individuals into office. These are two mechanisms that keep a government compliant and efficient, that's missing.

But Somalia is in a good position now to reform and change things, i said it before our obstacles have lessened compared to the past. The West and foreign powers are losing interest in Somalia. The U.S. and EU are reducing their involvement because they see no long-term benefit. Ethiopia is internally struggling, and its ability to dominate Somalia's politics is weakening. Foreign-backed governments collapse when their backers lose interest and when their funding source dries up.

Funding wise(due to local business activity and diaspora) we have the capital to fund development but also fund a government to replace FGS. The time to build Somali-led governance is now, while foreign influence is declining.

Replacing FGS in Mogadishu with a Somali led governance will have a ripple effect in my opinion to create a wider regional integration, its like a center piece in the equation.

 

[jidaaa_xx]

We need a young fresh face in power & transformation of governance. I’m extremely tired of these old people and their generational tribal hatred. The youth has to be main the focus of our country

 

[Inquisitive_]

We have a 10 year window to turn the ship around, otherwise it's over and we won't exist as a nation or people once we (millennials) reach retirement age.

The boomers are retired and dying, Gen X will be following them this decade, both these generations make up over 90% of the remittance money sent to Somalia from all over the world.

Your looking at 30% GDP wiped out with nothing to replace it in as little as a decade, add to this the global foreign aid cuts that funds the military & parliament, and it will be catastrophic blood bath.

No plan exists, both dahabshiil and hormuud will be hard hit and deservedly so, since there monopolistic practices & short sightedness has contributed to the destruction of Somalia.

These conglomerates couldn't even solve basic things that could have made them far richer whilst helping the country industrialise, like solving the energy problem, so they won't have to import everything, this would have started a massive manufacturing boom, it's literally the biggest problem holding the country back.

Instead they are competing in the honey, milk, sesame oil businesses with other locals to wipe them out.

Our Achilles heel is energy cost, we have the highest in the world, it's the single issue if resolved it will address 80% of our problems.

Agriculture - can't have cold storage warehouses or silos due to energy cost, so much of our food goes to waste as a result, can't feed ourselves much less export, much of the advancement in percision farming have the same limitations.

Infrastructure - to significantly reduce cost of build we need local factories to produce much of the materials needed to build our roads which is made impossible due to cost of energy, ramifications for this is gigantic, affects every sector, even our food rots in trucks during rainy seasons because of our poor roads, can't even enjoy fresh camel milk from the country side.

Manufacturing/factories - all made impossible for the same reasons, so we have to rely on imports and handing over our hard earned $$$.

When I was in Mogadishu, during the summer month of April I was paying £300 a month on energy cost for our house alone, literally only additions were two aircon units that was on 12 hours a day, that alone made up the majority of that bill, criminal.

 

[Xaawotaako]

The problem is majorly if kids don’t go to school. This is a major catastrophe. We went from highest literacy in Africa to now kids just loitering.

 

[X29]

The swiss bank story wasn't true, it was published and taken down by a Somaliland propaganda news site, haven't seen confirmations about it. But there was a report about 60 million transferred from a Turkey oil company into a Bank account co-owned by HSM daughter and son that was frozen in Djibouti.

I wouldn't say Somalia is a dying society. Quite on the contrary it's in many ways a thriving society fueled by the private sector activity and growing local and diaspora investment. That in of itself shows you that the problem doesn't lie on the Somali people , who are trying to do what they can to navigate around the political situation. Showing that Somali businesses are very capable and motivated to improve the country.

The dilemma here is that we can't fix everything privately. Education and Health Care shouldn't be supported by private citizens and businesses, it should be supported by government. It should all be public and accessible and affordable to everyone. Heck even most of the security services seems to be private as well, which is also big no no.

The private sector even picked up the slack of paving roads, cleaning up many of the districts and fixing old sewage/drainage systems


But this is also not very sustainable, it should be the public sectors job to constantly fund the maintenance and repair of these infrastructure services.

The public sector especially in Mogadishu, FGS is weak and almost none existent in terms of function and the reason being is that it's an externally imposed government that was put in place by the UN after US/Ethiopia outsted the locally derived ICU government. It's corrupt and weak precisely because outsiders fund it, protect it and prop it. Local Somalis have no accountability mechanism, we are not it's funding source and they never selected or voted these individuals into office. These are two mechanisms that keep a government compliant and efficient, that's missing.

But Somalia is in a good position now to reform and change things, i said it before our obstacles have lessened compared to the past. The West and foreign powers are losing interest in Somalia. The U.S. and EU are reducing their involvement because they see no long-term benefit. Ethiopia is internally struggling, and its ability to dominate Somalia's politics is weakening. Foreign-backed governments collapse when their backers lose interest and when their funding source dries up.

Funding wise(due to local business activity and diaspora) we have the capital to fund development but also fund a government to replace FGS. The time to build Somali-led governance is now, while foreign influence is declining.

Replacing FGS in Mogadishu with a Somali led governance will have a ripple effect in my opinion to create a wider regional integration, its like a center piece in the equation.

How can we get rid of it I'm sick of the fgs HSM we need to remove them quickly how do we do it there no longer an ICU so what can we replace it with

 

[Idilinaa]

We have a 10 year window to turn the ship around, otherwise it's over and we won't exist as a nation or people once we (millennials) reach retirement age.

The boomers are retired and dying, Gen X will be following them this decade, both these generations make up over 90% of the remittance money sent to Somalia from all over the world.

Your looking at 30% GDP wiped out with nothing to replace it in as little as a decade, add to this the global foreign aid cuts that funds the military & parliament, and it will be catastrophic blood bath.

No plan exists, both dahabshiil and hormuud will be hard hit and deservedly so, since there monopolistic practices & short sightedness has contributed to the destruction of Somalia.

These conglomerates couldn't even solve basic things that could have made them far richer whilst helping the country industrialise, like solving the energy problem, so they won't have to import everything, this would have started a massive manufacturing boom, it's literally the biggest problem holding the country back.

Instead they are competing in the honey, milk, sesame oil businesses with other locals to wipe them out.

Our Achilles heel is energy cost, we have the highest in the world, it's the single issue if resolved it will address 80% of our problems.

Agriculture - can't have cold storage warehouses or silos due to energy cost, so much of our food goes to waste as a result, can't feed ourselves much less export, much of the advancement in percision farming have the same limitations.

Infrastructure - to significantly reduce cost of build we need local factories to produce much of the materials needed to build our roads which is made impossible due to cost of energy, ramifications for this is gigantic, affects every sector, even our food rots in trucks during rainy seasons because of our poor roads, can't even enjoy fresh camel milk from the country side.

Manufacturing/factories - all made impossible for the same reasons, so we have to rely on imports and handing over our hard earned $$$.

When I was in Mogadishu, during the summer month of April I was paying £300 a month on energy cost for our house alone, literally only additions were two aircon units that was on 12 hours a day, that alone made up the majority of that bill, criminal.

Here we again. Somali society went through some of the worst catastrophes known to man and yet here they are decades later still standing, if the world left us alone we would be in a better situation because we are a self-reliant people. There is no doomsday timeline that's like waiting to happen.

Remittances only make 2% of the economy. It used to be 20-45% more than a decades ago before it started dropping in 2012 but never was it 90% , what the hell are you even about?. You also don't seem to realize that Somalia's reliance on remittances came primarily from it's US/Ethiopia invasion and UN economically collapsing it backing in 2007 and US/UN sanctioning and freezing their business enterprises. It was a temporary measure, a life line.

How do i know it's only 2%? because it only makes up 6% of mobile money transactions , the share of total mobile money stands at 36% according to World Bank and UN.

So most of the economic activity in the country comes from local investment. In another thread i posted a video that broke down numbers of how it's basically local Somalis in Mogadishu that fund infrastructure projects etc. like roads and stuff like that, they are not reliant on the diaspora money to get stuff done as all of it come from locals.

She explains it here the road constructions in Mogadishu and who pays it. It's local businesses, civil society leaders and sheikhs. Local businessmen are responsible for most of the funding at 50%. Property owners who's land connects to the road also pay like 15% or so. Taxes from the locals fund 35% percent.


Most of the areas are public spaces and private properties , there is a lot legal hurdles and property rights. Unless the government or private people contracts and partners up with them they wont do it.

Also factories and manufacturing literally made up 10-15% of the GDP in 2018. It probably is a higher share now. And multiple industrial facilities opening up in the country. At the time Mogadishu alone had 23 factories and 33 industrial facilities.

This doesn't even include figures from Puntland and Somaliland, Galmudug etc other places that has many factories and including industrial facilities like cement plants, steel plant, salt productions, beverage factories, boat manufacturing factories, and are building a large fish industrial processing plant.

Somalia is rapidly growing it's manufacturing industrial base fueled by private businesses investments.

"This indicates that Somalia's future in manufacturing is promising due to the entrepeneural tendencies of its society"

You are wrong about the conglomerates and businesses they heavily invest in renewable energy these past few years and work tiresly to make electricity more affordable and also invest in infrastructure building and support a bunch of stuff even education. The monopoly practices of buying ownership of small companies and buying out competitors is due to lack of government regulation (another down side of not having functional public sector)

Beco for example which is an energy company owned by the conglomerate Hormuud is actually rolling out green renewable energy projects in Somalia. Aimed at supplying 75% of Somalia with electricity by the end of 2025.

The have already completed like 2/3rd of it

The 50MW bio-gas plant shows a push for sustainable energy using local resources instead of imported fuel. Basically they are taking advantage of how Somalia has large amounts of organic waste (livestock manure, crop residues, urban waste) that can be converted into biogas. It's very cheap and sustainable in the long run.

But to me personally i believe Somalia is in excellent position to utilize geothermal energy within 1-5 years to meet it's energy demand while other sources like (diesel, hydro, wind and solar) play a complimentary and local role. I plan on making on thread on this though.

It's very achievable and provides more value because the energy companies are all local and not foreign owned.

The biggest problem with domestic Agriculture isn't storage or warehouse , you are talking nonsense. It's the fact that United States flood the market with cheap outdated grains and agricultural products that that dislodges and undermines domestic produce from the market. There is an easy fix to this.

Somalia used to be agriculturally self-sufficient country from the 70s to the mids 80s and it's easy to replicate, if the government put tariffs on foreign agricultural products it will force local consumers to purchase and higher reliance domestic production

With the emergence of investment in agricultural and food processing facilities, it will provide more wealth and boost domestic industry InshaAllah.

The future is actually looking pretty bright for Somalia, we are in a much better starting point in today's climate.

 

[geeljre49]

Here we again. Somali society went through some of the worst catastrophes known to man and yet here they are decades later still standing, if the world left us alone we would be in a better situation because we are a self-reliant people. There is no doomsday timeline that's like waiting to happen.

Remittances only make 2% of the economy. It used to be 20-45% more than a decades ago before it started dropping in 2012 but never was it 90% , what the hell are you even about?. You also don't seem to realize that Somalia's reliance on remittances came primarily from it's US/Ethiopia invasion and UN economically collapsing it backing in 2007 and US/UN sanctioning and freezing their business enterprises. It was a temporary measure, a life line.
View attachment 355947

How do i know it's only 2%? because it only makes up 6% of mobile money transactions , the share of total mobile money stands at 36% according to World Bank and UN.

View attachment 355949
View attachment 355950

So most of the economic activity in the country comes from local investment. In another thread i posted a video that broke down numbers of how it's basically local Somalis in Mogadishu that fund infrastructure projects etc. like roads and stuff like that, they are not reliant on the diaspora money to get stuff done as all of it come from locals.


Also factories and manufacturing literally made up 10-15% of the GDP in 2018. It probably is a higher share now. And multiple industrial facilities opening up in the country. At the time Mogadishu alone had 23 factories and 33 industrial facilities.
View attachment 355951

This doesn't even include figures from Puntland and Somaliland, Galmudug etc other places that has many factories and including industrial facilities like cement plants, steel plant, salt productions, beverage factories, boat manufacturing factories, and are building a large fish industrial processing plant.

Somalia is rapidly growing it's manufacturing industrial base fueled by private businesses investments.

"This indicates that Somalia's future in manufacturing is promising due to the entrepeneural tendencies of its society"
View attachment 355952

You are wrong about the conglomerates and businesses they heavily invest in renewable energy these past few years and work tiresly to make electricity more affordable and also invest in infrastructure building and support a bunch of stuff even education. The monopoly practices of buying ownership of small companies and buying out competitors is due to lack of government regulation (another down side of not having functional public sector)
View attachment 355956

Beco for example which is an energy company owned by the conglomerate Hormuud is actually rolling out green renewable energy projects in Somalia. Aimed at supplying 75% of Somalia with electricity by the end of 2025.
View attachment 355957

The have already completed like 2/3rd of it
View attachment 355958

The 50MW bio-gas plant shows a push for sustainable energy using local resources instead of imported fuel. Basically they are taking advantage of how Somalia has large amounts of organic waste (livestock manure, crop residues, urban waste) that can be converted into biogas. It's very cheap and sustainable in the long run.

But to me personally i believe Somalia is in excellent position to utilize geothermal energy within 1-5 years to meet it's energy demand while other sources like (diesel, hydro, wind and solar) play a complimentary and local role. I plan on making on thread on this though.

It's very achievable and provides more value because the energy companies are all local and not foreign owned.

The biggest problem with domestic Agriculture isn't storage or warehouse , you are talking nonsense. It's the fact that United States flood the market with cheap outdated grains and agricultural products that that dislodges and undermines domestic produce from the market. There is an easy fix to this.

Somalia used to be agriculturally self-sufficient country from the 70s to the mids 80s and it's easy to replicate, if the government put tariffs on foreign agricultural products it will force local consumers to purchase and reliance domestic production

With the emergence of investment in agricultural and food processing facilities, it will provide more wealth and boost domestic industry InshaAllah.

The future is actually looking pretty bright for Somalia, we are in a much better starting point in today's climate.

Your such a positive hotep and full of hope but be realistic. The country has insane electricity prices which stunts industrialisation.

 

[Idilinaa]

The future is actually looking pretty bright for Somalia, we are in a much better starting point in today's climate.

I was planning on making a deeper thread about this.

Somalia's future prospects:
Zero foreign debt → Unlike much of Africa, Somalia isn’t trapped by IMF & World Bank loans.

Domestic economic growth → Somali businesses dominate trade, telecom, and banking without foreign control.

Oil & gas exploration → Offshore resources could make Somalia one of the richest nations in Africa.

Renewable energy & blue ocean economy → Somalia is harnessing its coastline, wind, and geothermal, solar power for future growth.

Strategic location & special economic zones → Ports in Berbera, Bossaso, and Mogadishu are turning Somalia into an East African trade hub.

Resilient private sector & self-sufficiency → While many African economies rely on foreign companies, Somalis own their businesses.

Lets compare this to the rest of the world.

Europe → Aging population, economic stagnation, & political chaos over migration.

Ethiopia → Economic collapse, ethnic conflicts, civil war, & instability.

Israel → War has crippled its economy, and its global isolation is growing.

Africa (Many Nations) → Drowning in foreign debt, stuck in IMF loan cycles.

Gulf Countries → Oil is running out, and they’re scrambling to diversify before it’s too late.

We don't even have to begin with America , which is getting shafted on every possible way by Donald Trump and Elon Musk which will send them back to depression like conditions of the 1920s.

While others are collapsing under their own weight, Somalia is rebuilding and preparing for the future.

 

[Idilinaa]

Your such a positive hotep and full of hope but be realistic. The country has insane electricity prices which stunts industrialisation.

Do you have glasses on? Can you even read ?

Look at the what i showed, they are making the switch to renewable energy away from diesel generators and starting to rely more on local production for fuel which will bring down the prices, many factories and businesses already rely on green energy.

You are wrong about the conglomerates and businesses they heavily invest in renewable energy these past few years and work tiresly to make electricity more affordable and also invest in infrastructure building and support a bunch of stuff even education. The monopoly practices of buying ownership of small companies and buying out competitors is due to lack of government regulation (another down side of not having functional public sector)

Beco for example which is an energy company owned by the conglomerate Hormuud is actually rolling out green renewable energy projects in Somalia. Aimed at supplying 75% of Somalia with electricity by the end of 2025.

The have already completed like 2/3rd of it

The 50MW bio-gas plant shows a push for sustainable energy using local resources instead of imported fuel. Basically they are taking advantage of how Somalia has large amounts of organic waste (livestock manure, crop residues, urban waste) that can be converted into biogas. It's very cheap and sustainable source of electricity in the long run.

What this shows is that Somalia's manufacturing and industrial capacity will just expand and grow like it already does.

"This indicates that Somalia's future in manufacturing is promising due to the entrepreneurial tendencies of its society"

You think people are going to invest and expand manufacturing at this pace if they don't even think about how they can afford to support it?

Just because i see the great prospects the country has and the progress it is making doesn't make me a wishful optimist or a hotep or whatever.

 

[geeljre49]

Do you have glasses on? Can you even read ?

Look at the what i showed, they are making the switch to renewable energy away from diesel generators and starting to rely more on local production for fuel which will bring down the prices, many factories and businesses already rely on green energy.


View attachment 355960

What it shows is that Somalia's manufacturing and industrial capacity will just expand and grow like it already does.

"This indicates that Somalia's future in manufacturing is promising due to the entrepeneural tendencies of its society"

You think people are going to invest and expand manufacturing at this pace if they can't afford it?

Just because is see the great prospects the country has and the progress it is is making doesn't make me a wishful optimist or a hotep or whatever.

I am already aware of BECO's efforts to switch to renewables energy but no one relies on it and almost everyone still uses diesel generators because it is simply cheaper. I'm in Xamar right now and can attest to that first hand. The company also won't reach that goal of 75% of renewable energy by the end of the year. You mean good but when you say stuff like this as well as Somalia having an informal GDP of 90 billion $, It is too optimistic.

 

[Idilinaa]

I am already aware of BECO's efforts to switch to renewables energy but no one relies on it and almost everyone still uses diesel generators because it is simply cheaper. I'm in Xamar right now and can attest for that first hand. The company also won't reach that goal of 75% of renewable energy.

They already do use renewable energy in Mogadishu. BECO is the largest energy provider in Southern Central Somalia, there is no way around it, they started with providing diesel generated energy but has been moving toward affordable green energy.

But yeah and they started this green energy initiative back in 2016 , so the the projection of 2025 comes from that.

BECO’s role in transforming Somalia’s energy landscape​

https://nation.africa/africa/opinion/beco-s-role-in-transforming-somalia-s-energy-landscape-4850996

It has already reduced prices significantly and made things affordable. Lifted financial burden in many.

By 2025-2027 they are going to reduce the price even more, so it's going be extremely cheap and accessible.

You mean good but when you say stuff like this as well as Somalia having an informal GDP of 90 billion $, It is too optimistic.

Lmaao, thats what the numbers show it is 90 billion. It's realistic. There is no way mobile money transaction is valued at 32 billion a year (2.7 billion a month) with a share of 36% of GDP and it's less than 90 billion. If Somalias economy was smaller, the share of GDP would have been like 60% or something like that.

It makes it more profound because most of the money/wealth is just local. Other African countries GPD leaves the country because of the share of foreign corporate ownership, it's not even re-invested.

 

[Idilinaa]

How can we get rid of it I'm sick of the fgs HSM we need to remove them quickly how do we do it there no longer an ICU so what can we replace it with

Sorry for the late response, i didn't see your question. It's like i said before Somali civil society and business community have to create a parallel local government , Syria's did this to outs Assad and Taliban did this to out Afghan govt backed by the US.

ICU did this back in 2006 , but we no longer have the obstacles that they have (discount AS ofc). Ethiopia is weak and in shambles, US/UN are cutting off funding and lack interest in Somalia.

We don't even have to go to war, if their funding and support stops they will just collapse and Somalis can just easily step in to replace it while maintaining the order and the peace. Like the Bloodless coup of 1969.

The other dilemma why this is not happening yet, is that we have an extremely young population that are detached and are not very organized politically. So the youth need to assemble and mobilize, think of it like the SYL and other youth organization.

Our young population is our strength because it means that we have a large domestic labour pool, unlike Gulf countries and aging populations in developed nations. We don't need to import foreign labour.

I'll make a thread on this soon , i shared a bit about this in a structured way with @Shimbiris privately.

 

[X29]

Sorry for the late response, i didn't see your question. It's like i said before Somali civil society and business community have to create a parallel local government , Syria's did this to outs Assad and Taliban did this to out Afghan govt backed by the US.

ICU did this back in 2006 , but we no longer have the obstacles that they have (discount AS ofc). Ethiopia is weak and in shambles, US/UN are cutting off funding and lack interest in Somalia.

We don't even have to go to war, if their funding and support stops they will just collapse and Somalis can just easily step in to replace it while maintaining the order and the peace. Like the Bloodless coup of 1969.

The other dilemma why this is not happening yet, is that we have an extremely young population that are detached and are not very organized politically. So the youth need to assemble and mobilize, think of it like the SYL and other youth organization.

Our young population is our strength because it means that we have a large domestic labour pool, unlike Gulf countries and aging populations in developed nations. We don't need to import foreign labour.

I'll make a thread on this soon , i shared a bit about this in a structured way with @Shimbiris privately.

What of al Shabaab could they take the capital I really hope not

 

[Idilinaa]

What of al Shabaab could they take the capital I really hope not

That wont happen. Alshabaab isn't really an honest threat. Don't let the ruse of illegitimate FGS fool you. There is a reason why Alshabab can't even operate out of Ogaden, Somaliland or Puntland or do targeted attacks there

What Somalia is missing is an alternative. That can easily knock out both at the same time.

Extremists can never take over. They either face stiff resistant from the locals as they have zero legitimacy because they operate with a foreign imported ideology that is out of sink with Somali societal and cultural norms.

There is a reason why ISIS are all foreigners isolated in some desolate mountain and why most of AS recruits are foreigners.

When AS became an Al-Qaida affiliate , it purged most of it's local membership

The biggest strength of Al-Shabaab is that it presents itself as an alternative to the corrupt FGS.

The biggest strength of the FGS is that it is the only internationally recognized government.

Somalis need their own nationalist inclusive movement to counter both narratives. The private sector is already independent of both Al-Shabaab and the FGS. Business leaders and communities must organize neutral zones that operate outside the influence of both groups.

Where money flows freely, governance can emerge. For example encourage business hubs and communities to self-govern, rejecting both extremist and foreign-backed policies.

Create “no-conflict zones” where Somali businesses, elders, and youth build independent governance.

Strengthen economic networks that bypass both the FGS and Al-Shabaab taxation.

The economy is already Somali-led now governance must follow. In Ogaden post 2018 which is another case study , local Somali governance emerged through economic stability first.

It's not even comparable to the Taliban which took over which have deep cultural roots and local support. Alshabab has no real support and coerce people through violence, threat, extortion and intimidation.