Challenge: Name me 3 positive things Siyaad Barre has done

[Yazi]

I have read the whole thing before, you are not showing me anything new.

If you truly read his book than you wouldn't make bold allegations claiming self sufficiency in food production, rapid progress in many industries & diversity (economy was mainly livestock exports everything else failed), budget surplus, high fiscal performance, low corruption and accuse Cabdi Ismaciil Samatar of spreading false narrative even though his book is full of hard cold measurable numerical data.

The first 10 years of his regime Somalia was rapidly making progress , in so many different industries, education, literacy, health care, environmental protection, drought prevention, animal care, cultural/literary production, energy boost, nationwide electricity, infrastructure and manufacturing and was self sufficient in terms of food agriculture with food surpluses. The economy diversified more. Corruption was low, fiscal performance high and they had a budget surplus which they allocated to development projects. It also didn't place heavy restriction or prevent private trade or investment either and encouraged private enterprises in some sectors and built a commercial malls with dozens of shops to boost free trade , and the GNP of the economy was growing at high rate of 6%-7%. Somalia in general was safe with high security, Mogadishu was voted as a safe city. High score in sovereignty and a capable army and a navy, airforce etc.

Things only started to tumble with the introduction of IMF and World Bank structural programs introduced after the Ogaden war. Corruption also accompanied the flood of aid money they were unfamiliar with.

I have read a lot of the Somali written books on him Ahmed Samatars, even read Haji Ingriis, Said Samatars with David Latin's writings on Siad Barre and Kacaanka, the problem is that most were written in the years after the collapse , so they are not exactly 1st hand accounts unlike Maxamed Aaden Sheikhs ''Back to Mogadishu'' who saw it play out, or the journalistic coverage covering it as it took place and some of their allegations don't add up when you put it against the known facts. Other ones worth mentioning are the ones written by Abdi Samatar. It's a lot of allegations playing association games X is related /from lineage to Y, so that must be the reason in their tribal insinuations. That don't prove it concretly.

And here you backtracked from "We didn't take any aid or borrow before the 80s" to "the aid wasn't direct it was used to purchase equipments for development. So which one is it Somalia never taken Aid/debt before 80s or we toke it in form of development plans?

Like i said a lot of the economic problems happened after the Ogaden war when the IMF and World Bank structural programs were introduced. His critics use this as an arguing point all the time . There was no borrowing or aid money before this and somalia was virtually self-sufficient up until that point: Read how it destroyed the economy:

It's not entirely accurate, most of the debt he is associating with the government isn't hard cash injected into the economy in form foreign currency at all , it's stuff like direct investments, foreign financing in state projects and large industrial farms and supply of equipments (both industrial and military) and stuff like that by the Soviet and others. Nor was there much direct aid either. All of that came after the Ogaden war with the introduction of US/IMF

Literally all this word salad is contradicting itself. You can't even make up your mind if Afweyne toke debt/aid before 1980s yet here you are claiming there was some kind of mythic Somali Economical Miracle in the 70s.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

@Idilinaa I will have to be with @Yazi on this one our economy for pretty much the whole time was a basketcase and the biggest evidence for it is the paradoxical improvement in the economy post Siad on a number of metrics.

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[Yazi]

@Yazi I am curious though how would you have dealt with the economy if in a parallel world you had won power in 1969? I'm asking because the economy then was very limited and it makes sense why the pattern of foreign debt continued as even before independence the colonial powers didn't raise much revenue at all

It's easy to speculate from the comfort of your home. There are plenty of armchair wannabe politicians/economists who claim to be know all be all. I'm not an expert but this my opinion. It's becoming rather clear the hantiwadaag socialist programs all failed due to poor management and lack of maintainace. The communal farms failed because they relied on erratic rains and when the drought hit all that investment wasted away. Fisheries failed due to technical shortcomings and social aversion, manufacturing also failed because the projects didn't have a proper visibility studies to close gaps in the domestic market or look for new ones abroad. Despite preferential treatment by Italian importers the Somali Banana fared poorly when it comes to competitiveness. The army taken priority over economy and majority of the budget spent there.


In my opinion, our priority should been damning the entirety of Juba & Shabelle rivers. Those are our greatest blessings and where we have biggest potential of self sufficiency. Turn all the regions it crosses into our bread basket. Make visibility studies and focus on irrigation of the interiverne lands present day Jubaland & South West Sate & Hirashabelle. Install power generator dams as well and if possible redirect the course of the rivers into the arid central regions. At the same time, since we're still a poor developing country make use of what we have. Invest more in existing livestock veterinary services, clinics, maxajir and possibly develop meat processing industry later on. The Saudi 1975 and 1980s ban on Somali Livestock had a devastating effect on the whole country due to suspicions of certain diseases in the horn. I'm conflicted about the military. Due to the amass of the arms and Somalia's superior armament we had a very good shot of recapturing and keeping the Ogaden. With clever political maneuvering we could have easily captured Ogaden without commiting our standard army. The WSLF were enough but that's another topic.


I would also establish Somali Oil Company. Take loans to explore the Nugaal basin in the north and Juba Basin in the south. The discovery of oil would turn our economy 180 degrees. We would catch up to the oil boom in the late 90s and 2000s. I would not offer any kind of subsidies except for main necessities. Of course health care and education will have a priority as well make them accessible to the public and increase their quality. Attract foreign investment. All fees and taxes will be levied depending on the recommendations of the the advisors to keep our competitiveness.

Honestly nothing what I wrote here is ground breaking. It's common sense. There will be trail and error and mistakes on the way but nothing that can not be tackled by continues monitoring and adoptions. The fact we're theorizing this in 2024 is pathetic, this was due 50 years ago.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

It's easy to speculate from the comfort of your home. There are plenty of armchair wannabe politicians/economists who claim to be know all be all. I'm not an expert but this my opinion. It's becoming rather clear the hantiwadaag socialist programs all failed due to poor management and lack of maintainace. The communal farms failed because they relied on erratic rains and when the drought hit all that investment wasted. Fisheries failed due to technical shortcomings and social aversion, manufacturing also failed because the projects didn't have a proper visibility studies to close gaps in the domestic markets or abroad. Despite preferential treatment by Italian importers the Somali Banana fared poorly when it comes to competitiveness. The army taken priority over economy and majority of the went spent there.

In short, the economic failures were due to incompetence and lack of proper planning and oversight and also due to not focusing on the most important/highest ROI projects such as damming the Jubba and Shebelle?

 

[Yazi]

In short, the economic failures were due to incompetence and lack of proper planning and oversight and also due to not focusing on the most important/highest ROI projects such as damming the Jubba and Shebelle?

You're welcome to read Professor Samatar's book. But these are the main points.

 

[World]

In short, the economic failures were due to incompetence and lack of proper planning and oversight and also due to not focusing on the most important/highest ROI projects such as damming the Jubba and Shebelle?

But i would say that’s not true, they did focus on damming the Juba river via Bardhere dam, beginning research in 1984 and finalising the plan and ready for implementation by 1989 (We do not have a river/water treaty with Ethiopia who categorically opposed it but by 1989 it was legally solved).

 

[Awd]

People often have a very romanticized picture of Somalia pre civil war. In terms of having a semi functioning government fine. However, the State was centralized which meant that for a period of 30 years there was little to no urbanization outside of Mogadishu which set the country back.

 

[daljirkadahsoon]

People often have a very romanticized picture of Somalia pre civil war. In terms of having a semi functioning government fine. However, the State was centralized which meant that for a period of 30 years there was little to no urbanization outside of Mogadishu which set the country back.

100%

 

[Idilinaa]

If you truly read his book than you wouldn't make bold allegations claiming self sufficiency in food production, rapid progress in many industries & diversity (economy was mainly livestock exports everything else failed), budget surplus, high fiscal performance, low corruption and accuse Cabdi Ismaciil Samatar of spreading false narrative even though his book is full of hard cold measurable numerical data.

Nothing in the screenshots you posted from the book contradicts what was said by me. He was even admitting it throughout that they were making progress and increases. How funding was allocated to setting up these diverse industries, manufacturing, lagriculture, fisheries etc and how it was adding to the GDP and increase in employment.

''Match factory, a packaging plant for cardboard boxes and polyethylene bags, fruit and vegetable canning plants, a wheat flour and past factory, several grain mills, an iron foundry, and a petroleum refinery. Towards the end of the plan there were 53 state owned manufacturing enterprises as against 14 in 1970. After the natinalization measures, large amounts of investments were targeted for the new public units''

''The share of industry rose from 9% of GDP to over 15% and employment in this sub-sector was up by 21%''

'' While it's true that employment in those public establishments engaged in manufacturing increased from 4.482 to 9,735(an average increase of 17% per annum)''

''All in all, figures for national fish production in 1974-77 showed a steady upward trend.''

''Given it plans to limit income differentials. It also underlines the relative narrow gap between the lowest and highest paid employees.''

The big problem he is showing was the developmental/productive constraints due to lack of skilled workforce and technical knowledge which the regime was well aware of and was addressing. This is a common problem in newly industrializing nations. They undertook these ventures knowing-fully well of these facts.

Also he didn't say anything that spoke particularly against self-sufficiency or Somali being overly depended on food aid, he spoke about the export of livestock/agriculture, the prices,etc even though the economic policies for food production was towards domestic needs and domestic markets first and export 2nd. And yeah they recorded food surpluses from that as well in some of the periods, even though in some years production declined due to ecological problems, devastating drought in 1974-5 compounding import and constraints mainly due to the policies the former regime placed on land ecology. Livestock increased yearly without a hitch , with no need for much immediate oversight, except for disease, grazing and water management.

And here you backtracked from "We didn't take any aid or borrow before the 80s" to "the aid wasn't direct it was used to purchase equipments for development. So which one is it Somalia never taken Aid/debt before 80s or we toke it in form of development plans?






Literally all this word salad is contradicting itself. You can't even make up your mind if Afweyne toke debt/aid before 1980s yet here you are claiming there was some kind of mythic Somali Economical Miracle in the 70s.

Getting foreign financing to projects and supply in equipment is not the same as getting aid money.

It's not entirely accurate, most of the debt he is associating with the government isn't hard cash injected into the economy in form foreign currency at all , it's stuff like direct investments, foreign financing in state projects and large industrial farms and supply of equipments (both industrial and military) and stuff like that by the Soviet and others. Nor was there much direct aid either. All of that came after the Ogaden war with the introduction of US/IMF

What i said here is true, it is described in this excerpt i shared to you as well.

When i explained it this to you, you called it word Salad lmaaoo goo figure.

The only real problems in the economy emerged after the Ogaden war with the introduction of IMF/US , other stuff like technical problems placing productive constraints are to be expected when you are first starting out industrializing and those things would take time addressing through training and knowledge transfer.

The IMF structural programs imposed a number of conditions and policies that wrecked the economy in the real sense: Which you can read it here:

 

[Idilinaa]

There is no need to romanticize Siad Barre (he has is own faults) he is no saint but not looking at things from political-economic point of view and narrowly blaming 1 man is what's the problem is in my book

Because it avoids a clear look at the structural problems that prevails in Somalia to this day, which is clearly is deeper than 1 person and pre-dated his arrival.

It also exposes a lot of the critics as just petty retribution seekers who seek to use him to excuse their own failings and wrongdoings.

I am pretty sure no one is asking for a return of the Kacaan but we can look back and see where things went right and where things went wrong and learn from it. Instead of dismissing and downplay it all together.

Look at what i said here

The replies to me bickering about ''Afweyne Afweyne'' ''Afweyne apologist'' ''He tried to disrupt isaaq dominance'' really proves this post i made on page 3

Yall just can't contain yourselves i guess.

 

[Idilinaa]

People often have a very romanticized picture of Somalia pre civil war. In terms of having a semi functioning government fine. However, the State was centralized which meant that for a period of 30 years there was little to no urbanization outside of Mogadishu which set the country back.

Fully functioning government, because Kacaan in the first years had the ability to deliver services to it's people.

What the Kacaan did was a good thing because centralization meant that there was state planned urban development in both in the North and South. Hargeisa was the 2nd capital and was urbanized and industrialized. built road connecting north with the south and the different towns and cities to the rural areas. The state led urban plan development also curtailed random useless infrastructure builds that dot the landscape or the gentrification property business accompanying it today.

There was also various rural developments, support and increase in employment in that area.

Growth of urban population was halted by the Siad regime for other reasons due to capacity constraints in supporting them in services and infrastructure as a result of increase in urban population even in Mogadishu etc and preferred to support in sustaining the rural population. Whereas nowadays there is no barriers or urban planning and lack of rural development/support is leading to population displacement into the city.

Somalia today is the most rapidly urbanizing country and it's because of rural pressures and it's causing all sorts of problems.

What challenges does urbanisation in Somalia pose? AFIDEP and other regional stakeholders explore solutions at forum - African Institute for Development Policy - AFIDEP

The Department for International Development (DFID) Somalia has brought together researchers, government officials and various Somali stakeholders to a two-day practitioner-level discussion on urbanisation in Somalia. The forum, ‘Technical Dialogue on Urban Resilience in Somalia‘, held in...

afidep.org

Somalia has the highest rates of urbanisation in the world, and as the rural population continues to migrate to the cities, Somalia faces varying and dire pressures regarding sufficient services and infrastructure. Tensions over land and representation and the impacts of increasing urban Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) populations also add to the demands and challenges that stem from rapid urbanisation.