Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[BigBreak]

@Sheikh Kulkuli the Ciise kid Jabuutawi on somnet said the so called TDF has captured the Afar region's capital Semera. Why is he lying, his cuqdad against Afar is making him crazy

 

[Asaana]

Dont kill them use them as free labour to till the land.Capture them and use them as donkeys.

I think amhara should be taught a lesson.

Agree they need to remember their peasant roots.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Agree they need to remember their peasant roots.

They think they are in the century they used the white man to their advantage.
Whatvis the plan of TPLF?

They need to capture more land in Gonder and as well arm qimat insurgency in Amhara state.

 

[Asaana]

They think they are in the century they used the white man to their advantage.
Whatvis the plan of TPLF?

They need to capture more land in Gonder and as well arm qimat insurgency in Amhara state.

It’s hard to say what TPLF will do next but Amhara are pissing their pants.

 

[Ferrari]

Amharas are crying all over social media. they are getting the karbaash of their lives.

what a bunch of wussies.


@xabashi was last seeen on fb crying his guts out

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@Ferrari did Abye betray Amhara? He rose their hopes they gave him votes and know he just did an MJ moonwalk on amhara when they needed him most.


The guy is a genious.

@Asaana
@Gadhwayne

 

[Ferrari]

@Ferrari did Abye betray Amhara? He rose their hopes they gave him votes and know he just did an MJ moonwalk on amhara when they needed him most.

The guy is a genious.

@Asaana
@Gadhwayne

He's under a lot of pressure, not to mention he probably got annoyed at them. they did too much.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

My point is that they have enough manpower, weapons and determination to get back full control of their region, but not enough to expand this conflict to other regions and eventually conquer territories.

Indeed bro.
TDF cannot rule Ethiopia. They will be limited to ruling Tigray. It will be impossible for them to rule from the center as they did before. People forget that the tplf ruled because it had allies in Amhara and Oromia. Today, they have no allies. They have their own people, which will only be sufficient to rule their own lands.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Indeed bro.
TDF cannot rule Ethiopia. They will be limited to ruling Tigray. It will be impossible for them to rule from the center as they did before. People forget that the tplf ruled because it had allies in Amhara and Oromia. Today, they have no allies. They have their own people, which will only be sufficient to rule their own lands.

Oromo are 10 times the size of Tigray yet TDF with all the odds defeated both ENDF & ERDF in Tigray.

No one is saying TDF will capture Addis Ababa but they have the cpacity to do more damage than OLA who are within the vicinity of Addis Ababa.

Abye is a genious he jailed the galla politicians like Jawar and Lemma Magarsa and humiliated the savage Qerro.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

A guerrilla war and a conventional war are two different things. If it were conventional, they would lose and they themselves know it. Switching to guerrilla warfare is what made it too difficult to sustain not to mention the pressure exerted by the Europeans and Americans.

TDF will be unable to advance beyond Tigray. So, who cares what they do in Tigray? They're gonna have to feed millions because aid won't last forever and they're surrounded on all sides by enemies. So they got a short term victory but now have to think long term. Which will be more difficult than the war itself.

They would have fought conventional if the chinese and aue drones were not used in the war and TDF was winning.

The thing is you think like an oromo farmer.they think outside the box thatbis why they have been successful.
All regimes in Ethiopia used to defeat oromos easily because oromo cannot survive without food for a day.

These guys have gobe through the most ruthless campaign theybised to think whether they will live the next day because of the ethnic cleansing they were facing and you are talking about how they will survive omce that pressure is gone.
Well its simple they will capture parts of Gonder that is fertile and rich inn agriculture and loot Amhara region for resources.

They will also wage a gaurille warfare on the transport corridor that links Dhibout to Addis ababa.Hence it will be difficult for Addis ababa to trade with the world.

Also EU and the west that has been giving free aid to Addis will be cut off.
How will Abye pay his soilders? Currently Ethiopia is almost bunkrupt.

Never under estimate Gaurille warfare alot of countries in the world experienced regime change through this means more than conventional warfare.

Currently even Ethiopia cannot sustain a conventional warfare with Sudan/Egypt.
I will be honest in Erhiopia Amhara are hated more than Tigray.Even OLA is ready to come to negotiating table with them than with Amhara.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

A guerrilla war and a conventional war are two different things. If it were conventional, they would lose and they themselves know it. Switching to guerrilla warfare is what made it too difficult to sustain not to mention the pressure exerted by the Europeans and Americans.

TDF will be unable to advance beyond Tigray. So, who cares what they do in Tigray? They're gonna have to feed millions because aid won't last forever and they're surrounded on all sides by enemies. So they got a short term victory but now have to think long term. Which will be more difficult than the war itself.

They would have fought conventional if the chinese and aue drones were not used in the war and TDF was winning.

The thing is you think like an oromo farmer.they think outside the box thatbis why they have been successful.
All regimes in Ethiopia used to defeat oromos easily because oromo cannot survive without food for a day.

These guys have gobe through the most ruthless campaign theybised to think whether they will live the next day because of the ethnic cleansing they were facing and you are talking about how they will survive omce that pressure is gone.
Well its simple they will capture parts of Gonder that is fertile and rich inn agriculture and loot Amhara region for resources.

They will also wage a gaurille warfare on the transport corridor that links Dhibout to Addis ababa.Hence it will be difficult for Addis ababa to trade with the world.

Also EU and the west that has been giving free aid to Addis will be cut off.
How will Abye pay his soilders? Currently Ethiopia is almost bunkrupt.

Never under estimate Gaurille warfare alot of countries in the world experienced regime change through this means more than conventional warfare.

Currently even Ethiopia cannot sustain a conventional warfare with Sudan/Egypt.
I will be honest in Erhiopia Amhara are hated more than Tigray.Even OLA is ready to come to negotiating table with them than with Amhara.

Amhara

 

[Abba Sadacha]

They would have fought conventional if the chinese and aue drones were not used in the war and TDF was winning.

The thing is you think like an oromo farmer.they think outside the box thatbis why they have been successful.
All regimes in Ethiopia used to defeat oromos easily because oromo cannot survive without food for a day.

These guys have gobe through the most ruthless campaign theybised to think whether they will live the next day because of the ethnic cleansing they were facing and you are talking about how they will survive omce that pressure is gone.
Well its simple they will capture parts of Gonder that is fertile and rich inn agriculture and loot Amhara region for resources.

They will also wage a gaurille warfare on the transport corridor that links Dhibout to Addis ababa.Hence it will be difficult for Addis ababa to trade with the world.

Also EU and the west that has been giving free aid to Addis will be cut off.
How will Abye pay his soilders? Currently Ethiopia is almost bunkrupt.

Never under estimate Gaurille warfare alot of countries in the world experienced regime change through this means more than conventional warfare.

Currently even Ethiopia cannot sustain a conventional warfare with Sudan/Egypt.
I will be honest in Erhiopia Amhara are hated more than Tigray.Even OLA is ready to come to negotiating table with them than with Amhara.

Amhara

Even without drones, TDF couldn't beat all the forces abiy assembled. Hence why they switched to guerrilla warfare and succeeded. If another regime comes to power at the center in addis, it won't be a tdf or Tigrayan, it'll be one of abiys closest "friends," who is hungry for power and disagrees with Abiy. This aint 1991. Tdf cannot rule the country as a whole and they themselves know it. But they can rule tigray and maintain their rule there. I doubt they'd attack the road to Djibouti as well seeing as how that would force Afar and others to fight too because such a move would effect the entire country. As of now, it's seen as abiy and amhara for the most part, against TDF. Oromos Somalis and others just chillin. But that would force many to get involved, many, who would otherwise not care about the war. OLA and TDF cannot coordinate because there's no borders between us, but OLA does have a good relationship with forces in Gumuz whom we do border. New units are even operating in Jimma now, Abiys hometown. You cannot compare us, a state ruled by puppets for 30 years, to tigray a place ruled by strong nationalists who loved their people for 30 years. It's impossible to compare us. There's so many differences bro.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Even without drones, TDF couldn't beat all the forces abiy assembled. Hence why they switched to guerrilla warfare and succeeded. If another regime comes to power at the center in addis, it won't be a tdf or Tigrayan, it'll be one of abiys closest "friends," who is hungry for power and disagrees with Abiy. This aint 1991. Tdf cannot rule the country as a whole and they themselves know it. But they can rule tigray and maintain their rule there. I doubt they'd attack the road to Djibouti as well seeing as how that would force Afar and others to fight too because such a move would effect the entire country. As of now, it's seen as abiy and amhara for the most part, against TDF. Oromos Somalis and others just chillin. But that would force many to get involved, many, who would otherwise not care about the war. OLA and TDF cannot coordinate because there's no borders between us, but OLA does have a good relationship with forces in Gumuz whom we do border. New units are even operating in Jimma now, Abiys hometown. You cannot compare us, a state ruled by puppets for 30 years, to tigray a place ruled by strong nationalists who loved their people for 30 years. It's impossible to compare us. There's so many differences bro.

keep your hybrid oromo/amhara reservations to yourself.

You seemed to be more inclined to Amhara way of reasoning than even OLA.
The bottom line is
Abye has played his game well even though he has weakened himself and destoryed his image with the west.

Because he weakened TDF using ERDF & Chinese drones.

Abye weakened Oromos by using Amhara militia as well as ENDF against OLA and Qerro.

Abye is now planning to weaken Amhara by using Sudan/Egypt,Oromos,Gumuz, TDF against them.

Abye weakened Somalis by making them fight for useless seats i.e Cagjar Vs ONLF

Abye even though weak as long as he keeps Addis Safe he can rule as long as he wishes.Just like Bashar Asad of Syria who was once only ruling Damascus.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@Ferrari
@Asaana
@Gadhwayne

 

[Abba Sadacha]

keep your hybrid oromo/amhara reservations to yourself.

You seemed to be more inclined to Amhara way of reasoning than even OLA.
The bottom line is
Abye has played his game well even though he has weakened himself and destoryed his image with the west.

Because he weakened TDF using ERDF & Chinese drones.

Abye weakened Oromos by using Amhara militia as well as ENDF against OLA and Qerro.

Abye is now planning to weaken Amhara by using Sudan/Egypt,Oromos,Gumuz, TDF against them.

Abye weakened Somalis by making them fight for useless seats i.e Cagjar Vs ONLF

Abye even though weak as long as he keeps Addis Safe he can rule as long as he wishes.Just like Bashar Asad of Syria who was once only ruling Damascus.

Ah. Yes. Anyone who doesn't blindly agree with you, must be some hybrid or whatever silly, nonsensical "insult" that you can think of.

Abiy is just like any typical African/human dictator. He wants power and the benefits associated with it-regardless of the costs.
Unfortunately he may rule for another 10 years or so, because there is no unified and competent opposition. It is what it is. Only Allaah knows the future. Time will tell.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Ah. Yes. Anyone who doesn't blindly agree with you, must be some hybrid or whatever silly, nonsensical "insult" that you can think of.

Abiy is just like any typical African/human dictator. He wants power and the benefits associated with it-regardless of the costs.
Unfortunately he may rule for another 10 years or so, because there is no unified and competent opposition. It is what it is. Only Allaah knows the future. Time will tell.

Wachiis to me you are worse than amhara and TPLF a galla that stoopes low to believing menelik was your messiah for your galla nation while Sudan hero the Mahdi was your oppressor.

You can never fool me because you also once were trying to scam somalis on social media.

 

[Factz]

TDF have captured Alamata which was the final straw of southern Tigray. The Ethiopian army and Amhara region forces were hoping to open a new front in Alamata but the plan failed.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@xabashi

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

@Ferrari
@Gadhwayne

 

[Gadhwayne]

Abye even though weak as long as he keeps Addis Safe he can rule as long as he wishes.Just like Bashar Asad of Syria who was once only ruling Damascus.

The Bashaar scenario could happen like this: lose Tigray, ENDF badly weakened, that embolden other kilils/insurgents. Probably DDS/Gambela first but keep Cafar loyalty thus keeping Djibouti transport route. WesternOromia lost. Crush Caruusa and EasternQoti and or alternatively keep DDS loyalty and sponsor DDS liyu to act in Hararga/Caruusa areas

Too many variables to predict how that happen. What we can do is go off this map and see patterns

Crisis in Ethiopia - Google My Maps

A map of the ongoing crisis in Ethiopia between the Abiy Ahmed led government+regional allies and the semi-autonomous Tigray Region led by the TPLF. Please take note that due to the internet shutdown and socioeconomic conditions of the region, getting information is slow and often unconfirmed...

www.google.com

Cafar appear to be neutral or pro TPLF since TDF is doing best in areas near Cafar kilil. Cafar are traditionally anti Afeworqi and pro AddisAbaba though but Afeworqi is also supporting Addiis. @xabashi could be right about Wolqayit but it depends on PFDJ army presence.

I predict Abiy keeps the support of all the small kilils. Axmaara kilil also. @Abba Sadacha is wrong @Sheikh Kulkuli is right that westernOromiya has traditionally been docile farmers the most devoutly nationalist/tribalist Oromo are Caruusa and easternQoti. Abiy can use eastern Qoti against neighboring DDS clans and vice versa. That is until/if subsidies run out for local kilil governments and/or ENDF lose their dominance over heavily armed seminomadic-clans' militias

No official recognition of internal/external border changes even if we have new de-facto borders