Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[James Dahl]

They are not advancing on all fronts in Amhara though, they have narrowed their focus on Dessie and advancing south, they withdrew from the Debarq front in northern Gonder and from their offensive to try and take Debre Tabor, as I believe the TDF command realized they were overextending themselves.

I think the offensive into the southern highlands is more strategic, they are looking to link up with Oromo Liberation Army forces by moving into Oromia Zone. I don't think TDF want to try and hold and garrison a lot of hostile territory, they only want to take over areas where there are some friendly locals, like in northern Wollo where there are Tigrayans and friendly Agaws, or in southern Wollo where they have allies in the OLA.

TDF doesn't need to capture Addis Ababa, that's ultimately the OLA's job. The OLA need heavy weapons though, they don't have any. The TDF can supply the OLA with heavy weapons. Oromia also has lots of food.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

They are not advancing on all fronts in Amhara though, they have narrowed their focus on Dessie and advancing south, they withdrew from the Debarq front in northern Gonder and from their offensive to try and take Debre Tabor, as I believe the TDF command realized they were overextending themselves.

I think the offensive into the southern highlands is more strategic, they are looking to link up with Oromo Liberation Army forces by moving into Oromia Zone. I don't think TDF want to try and hold and garrison a lot of hostile territory, they only want to take over areas where there are some friendly locals, like in northern Wollo where there are Tigrayans and friendly Agaws, or in southern Wollo where they have allies in the OLA.

TDF doesn't need to capture Addis Ababa, that's ultimately the OLA's job. The OLA need heavy weapons though, they don't have any. The TDF can supply the OLA with heavy weapons. Oromia also has lots of food.

Indeed. TDF knows if it gets to the oromia zone, where the oromo's are the majority, they will at least find a neutral group of people, people who been at war with amhara state forces for a while, and unfortunately with afar militias too. If OLA gets heavy weapons, it's game over for abiy, which is why he isn't sending in major weapons to oromia, he is sending troops with ak's and other rifles.

 

[Gugu]

Indeed. TDF knows if it gets to the oromia zone, where the oromo's are the majority, they will at least find a neutral group of people, people who been at war with amhara state forces for a while, and unfortunately with afar militias too. If OLA gets heavy weapons, it's game over for abiy, which is why he isn't sending in major weapons to oromia, he is sending troops with ak's and other rifles.

Nah. OLA is weak as shit. They are extremely good at being annoying and wasting government resources though. Even with heavy weapons they don’t have the training or men to do anything.

 

[Abba Sadacha]

Nah. OLA is weak as shit. They are extremely good at being annoying and wasting government resources though. Even with heavy weapons they don’t have the training or men to do anything.

Oh really. Then you should go fight them and show them how its done bro. They need your expertise for sure.

 

[bidenkulaha]

It’s been a tough few days for TPLF. The war fronts are grinding to a halt.

Will be interesting if they withdraw. Too many loss of life for little tuulos with no development. Sounds costly with no end benefit

 

[Gugu]

Oh really. Then you should go fight them and show them how its done bro. They need your expertise for sure.

Dude take no offense. I am talking relative to Ethiopia. A group their size with their lack of training/resources can only do so much. Don’t forget how many Oromo leaders were arrested also that could have helped organize and recruit for OLA.

 

[Nilotic]

Could you imagine how terribly devastating it would be for the region if Ethiopia (with its large population) collapsed? The magnitude of such a tragic scenario sends chills down my spine.

 

[bidenkulaha]

Could you imagine how terribly devastating it would be for the region if Ethiopia (with its large population) collapsed? The magnitude of such a tragic scenario sends chills down my spine.

Our population would triple overnight. We’d become a minority

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Could you imagine how terribly devastating it would be for the region if Ethiopia (with its large population) collapsed? The magnitude of such a tragic scenario sends chills down my spine.

why do you care?
did they care when SSudan descended into chaos?

 

[Nilotic]

why do you care?
did they care when SSudan descended into chaos?

Ethiopia brokered the peace talks that essentially ended the intense phase of the war. We have good relations with Ethiopia; those relations are historical and extensive.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Ethiopia brokered the peace talks that essentially ended the intense phase of the war. We have good relations with Ethiopia; those relations are historical and extensive.

what about gambella?

 

[Nilotic]

what about gambella?

Gambella's place in Ethiopia isn't disputed by either Juba or the people of South Sudan; the current Governor is Anyuak and the Nuer hold sway in the Government, so South Sudan isn't concerned with Ethiopia.

 

[reer]

Could you imagine how terribly devastating it would be for the region if Ethiopia (with its large population) collapsed? The magnitude of such a tragic scenario sends chills down my spine.

Allahu Akbar I would celebrate.

 

[Nilotic]

Allahu Akbar I would celebrate.

That's understandable... they occupy a huge chunk of your homeland.

 

[reer]

That's understandable... they occupy a huge chunk of your homeland.

ethiopia is the israel of the horn of africa. and it is the only standing colonial state. if you hate colonialism you should support its disintegration.

 

[Nilotic]

ethiopia is the israel of the horn of africa. and it is the only standing colonial state. if you hate colonialism you should support its disintegration.

I do hate colonialism and I hope that you reclaim both Galbeed and the NFD from Ethiopia and Kenya in the near future; our region simply isn't equipped to handle the disintegration of a State like Ethiopia, so I don't want that to happen.

 

[reer]

I do hate colonialism and I hope that you reclaim both Galbeed and the NFD from Ethiopia and Kenya in the near future; our region simply isn't equipped to handle the disintegration of a State like Ethiopia, so I don't want that to happen.

fair play. but there wouldnt be a mass exodus of refugees. because their regions are not flat like somalia which makes heavy fighting much harder and casualties less. also sbyssinia is the 2nd oldest christian state the west will save them from becoming another somalia.

 

[Nilotic]

fair play. but there wouldnt be a mass exodus of refugees. because their regions are not flat like somalia which makes heavy fighting much harder and casualties less. also sbyssinia is the 2nd oldest christian state the west will save them from becoming another somalia.

The sheer size of their population would mean that the displacement of a fraction of a fraction would be disastrous.

Ethiopia's Christian heritage would undoubtedly make the West more inclined to help them out; we (South Sudan) used the same thing to receive help from the West against Khartoum in the 90s -- despite the fact that we weren't majority Christian at that point.

 

[reer]

The sheer population size of their population would mean that the displacement of a fraction of a fraction would be disastrous.

Ethiopia's Christian heritage would undoubtedly make the West more inclined to help them out; we (South Sudan) used the same thing to receive help from the West against Khartoum in the 90s -- despite the fact that we weren't majority Christian at that point.

yep thats also a fair point. ethiopia and egypt have massive populations. any instability would be devastating. where would they flee to? south sudan is unstable so is somalia which serves as a deterrent they will only recieve a small number. sudan dont have a proper government they have dumb goat herder hemetti. maybe sudan and uganda and kenya might face the brunt of a refugee crisis.

 

[Nilotic]

yep thats also a fair point. ethiopia and egypt have massive populations. any instability would be devastating. where would they flee to? south sudan is unstable so is somalia which serves as a deterrent they will only recieve a small number. sudan dont have a proper government they have dumb goat herder hemetti. maybe sudan and uganda and kenya might face the brunt of a refugee crisis.

Our entire region is pathetic and would be completely overwhelmed in such a scenario. The West won't allow Ethiopia to disintegrate because they would possibly have to contend with millions of migrants trying to reach the West.