Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

 

[HG1]

No they will not join Somalia or Somaliland.But Somaliland can Join somalia.

The vast majority of people will want to join somalia and the region will be split into new somali federal states. Some will join puntland gulmudug somaliland jubaland and some will become new states.Than the final country left will he Kenya when nfd become new state.

 

[HG1]

Have you guys ever wondered, what if a more sinister and evil Ethiopian government emerges? Where Somalis will be targeted even more and have more land annexed? Are you guys sure if Tplf wins this war that Ethiopia will Balakanize?

Tiguary will become Independent most likely as they know they can't rule ethipioa forever and also they will be attacked again like many times before so will oromo region somali region will join somalia and somaliland.

 

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Don’t underestimate them. They are hugely mobilised, motivated and united, more than any other ethnicity. No other region is as mobilised as the Tigray region, it doesn’t matter if they are only 5 % of Ethiopia’s population when none of the other regions have as many united, organised fighters as them. They are fighting for survival. Achieving greater Tigray is more realistic than conquering all of Ethiopia in my opinion.

If they couldnt steamroll Afar and West Tigray positions they wont be doing anything spectacular.

Dont forget TDF is a receding power until they can find proper supply lines they are running on rations and momentum.

TPLF created EPRDF in 89 which included Amhara & Oromo but they were still the majority.


Do you think TPLF are not capable of forging another ERPDF collation? No other group has experience to accomplish that. Abiye's PP collation has all but failed to garner wide country support.

Theyre trying with their current coalition but the same effect in my opinion wont be achieved. I have many of my reasons why but plenty is yet to be seen so i’ll restrain on that.

The word “confederalism” has entered the dialogue now according to some. Sucks for @xabeshi we know what that dog whistle means

 

[HG1]

Our people in the West want independence but it is hard to determine what the people back in Tigray want. We haven’t heard their voices in a year.

TPLF has said they will let the people decide but if they can grab full power of Ethiopia again I doubt they will go for independence. They’re greedy politicians after all.

My preference is a more federal Ethiopia that actually follows the constitution, then second is independence and dead last is whatever is going on right now.

No tiguary don't want to gain power they will gain independence rather they will take some land from amhara and afar region than declare independence. The oromo is the same.Somali region will join somalia and somaliland.

 

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The vast majority of people will want to join somalia and the region will be split into new somali federal states. Some will join puntland gulmudug somaliland jubaland and some will become new states.Than the final country left will he Kenya when nfd become new state.

 

[HG1]

I do beleive Afaworki will send at least 50K soilders to Addis Ababa for final show down and abye will pay for mercenaries to fight.

Afaworki would rather see his forces fight in Addis Ababa than at the border between Tigray and Eritrea.


So he will send his best and even engage on street fight with TDF unlike ENDF.


I have zero confidence that Abye will negotiate because Afaworki will give him Asylum in Eritrea .There is no country willing to accept Abye.
Only Eritrea and Somalia( Mogadishu).

Eritrea will not send in troops.Rather what will happen is that ethipioa will fall afar don't want tiguary lead government also the oromo will be betrayed if that happens.So most likely is ethipioa will collapse and each region declare independence the first being tiguary and the last being amhara.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

The vast majority of people will want to join somalia and the region will be split into new somali federal states. Some will join puntland gulmudug somaliland jubaland and some will become new states.Than the final country left will he Kenya when nfd become new state.

Nobody will want to join somalia a failed state which has done nothing for people of DDS.

 

[HG1]

How is it the eithopian army can't defeat a bunch of homicidal blood thirsty thugs?

We are going to have two failed states next to each other? This is Al Shabab wildest dream

No we are going to have new Independent countries.Except for somali region.

 

[HG1]

Nobody will want to join somalia a failed state which has done nothing for people of DDS.

That occurding to you.Somali people had fought wars against ethipioa to free that land. Somali region will join somalia if there was an election to take place.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

No we are going to have new Independent countries.Except for somali region.

Who are you to determine that? Keep your wishful thinking to yourself.We dont need your irir input.

 

[HG1]

You think the West want over 100 million refugees and displaced people?

What will happen to the AU that’s based in Ethiopia?

What will happen to hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Chinese investment?

No major international player wants Ethiopia to collapse.

No country wants it to collapse but they is what will happen.You can't have an country with multiple ethnic groups that don't care about each other fighting over who will lead.Just like soviet union yogoslavia sudan spilt so will ethipioa inshallah.

 

[HG1]

Who are you to determine that? Keep your wishful thinking to yourself.We dont need your irir input.

This isn't wishful thinking this is fact

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

This isn't wishful thinking this is fact

From someone from Galmugdi right?

 

[HG1]

If they couldnt steamroll Afar and West Tigray positions they wont be doing anything spectacular.

Dont forget TDF is a receding power until they can find proper supply lines they are running on rations and momentum.

Theyre trying with their current coalition but the same effect in my opinion wont be achieved. I have many of my reasons why but plenty is yet to be seen so i’ll restrain on that.

The word “confederalism” has entered the dialogue now according to some. Sucks for @xabeshi we know what that dog whistle means

More like collapse and new independent countries.Ethipioa is dead just like Soviet union and Yugoslavia was.

 

[HG1]

From someone from Galmugdi right?

HG.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

HG.

Youthink about how you will vacate lower Shabelle and surviving from Farmajos plots and twists .DDS is not your turf.

 

[HG1]

They probably want the TPLF to take over but not throw Ethiopia into anarchy.

They will probably pressure Abiy Ahmed to negotiate or leave Ethiopia before any harm done.



Egypt and Sudan don’t want a collapsed Ethiopia.

A weaker Ethiopia is their intention but they don’t Ethiopia to turn into Somalia.

Also, where do you think is the first place these refugees are going?

You guessed it, Somalia.

Egypt would prefer an destroyed ethipioa to am united one.Also the dam that ethipioa built on an a land which has an ethnic group which will most likely either become independent or join Sudan or south Sudan that is the best result for Egypt.