Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

[AbdiGeedi]

Sudan boycotts faltering talks over Ethiopia’s mega-dam

Sudan boycotted talks on Saturday between Nile Valley countries over Ethiopia's controversial mega-dam, calling on the African Union to play a greater role in pushing forward the negotiations that have stalled for years. It was the first time that Sudan refused to attend talks with Ethiopia and...

news.yahoo.com

This is the beginning of the end for Ethiopia.

Abiy rejected AU mediation. I wonder if it triggered Sudan to boycott the Nile dam talks. It is out of place for Sudan do to so.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

They are celebrating his expulsion for being pro-Tigrayan.

Davison was one of the neutral analysts based in Addis Ababa.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

abiy's between a rock and a hard place:
International community, and of course the countries in the region from Kenya to Uganda, are pressuring him to negotiate and end the war, but the amhara's would be beyond furious if he stopped short of them 'achieving total victory,' which basically is dismantling tplf, taking lands they perceive to be theirs, and installing a puppet regime there in tigray to ensure tigray never threatens them again.
abiy also knows that, if amhara's get too powerful, they could easily go after him next and install one of their own in power, so he in a way benefits from their weakening themselves by dying fighting tigrayans.

Afwerki is also pushing hard to eradication of the TPLF in Tigray. I doubt it will be successful though. It will just morph into a new form.

 

[Mehmet]

Cause he is losing on every level so he must deport everyone

 

[AbdiGeedi]

The rift between the Saudi/UAE-led bloc and Turkey/Qatar is getting wider reaching as far as Western Sahara (Polisario) where Turkey is starting to shift to Algerian side against Morocco. It would be interesting to see how both camps act in Ethiopia.

Today Saudi king reached out to Erdogan to calm things down.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[xabashi]

Davison was one of the neutral analysts based in Addis Ababa.

The first time I agree with you . Yes, as many western "analysts" the guy also didn't have deep knowledge of the situation and background info but he tried to stay neutral. In any case his deportation is a stupid move.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

The rift between the Saudi/UAE-led bloc and Turkey/Qatar is getting wider reaching as far as Western Sahara (Polisario) where Turkey is starting to shift to Algerian side against Morocco. It would be interesting to see how both camps act in Ethiopia.

Today Saudi king reached out to Erdogan to calm things down.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Because Donald trump is going Saudis started becoming friendly.

 

[xabashi]

Unconfirmed reports say special forces and the republican guard are being deployed near the city of Mekele as part of a preparation for a targeted attack on TPLF leaders inside the city.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Because Donald trump is going Saudis started becoming friendly.

Biden is in Israel's pocket. Saudis are just taking diplomatic precautions but it is still the same old same old.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Biden is in Israel's pocket. Saudis are just taking diplomatic precautions but it is still the same old same old.

Yes but MBS is like an outcast.
His time is up.

 

[Libaax-Joore]

@AbdiGeedi who is winning the war

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Yes but MBS is like an outcast.
His time is up.

He is shunned. These days it is about MBZ (Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE). The old Saudi king is just an old guard who is still respected by Erdogan. With his death, MBS/MBZ will have their hands completely untied.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@AbdiGeedi who is winning the war

TPLF is staying quite about Abiy's claim about the capture of Adigrat. To me it means it is true and the final hour is upon us. Of course, unless there is a major counter offensive in the works by TPLF.

As a rule, I don't trust Addis Ababa claims though. It is a waiting period right now.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@Django

I think MBS/MBZ will eventually strike in Libya. They really want Turkey and Egypt go to war. El-Sisi is getting all kinds of weapons now, financed by Saudi Arabia/ UAE. I believe that's why Turkey will have to warm up to Algeria and keep Tunisia in its orbit. Erdogan is already making concessions to Macron to woo France away from Egypt a bit.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

TPLF is staying quite about Abiy's claim about the capture of Adigrat. To me it means it is true and the final hour is upon us. Of course, unless there is a major counter offensive in the works by TPLF.

As a rule, I don't trust Addis Ababa claims though. It is a waiting period right now.

Even if ENDF capture Makelle.
Its just the beginning.

As a TPLF guy said it will be easy for ENDF to capture Makelle but they will leave in bodybags.

 

[xabashi]

Even if ENDF capture Makelle.
Its just the beginning.

As a TPLF guy said it will be easy for ENDF to capture Makelle but they will leave in bodybags.

Now you really sound like Baghdad bob . Are you trying to defend from inside Mekele Airport like comical ali? It is over man, it is over! Deal with it! No amount of empty bravado can help at this point! It is over! This time, TPLF started a fight with the wrong guy aka ENDF!

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Even if ENDF capture Makelle.
Its just the beginning.

As a TPLF guy said it will be easy for ENDF to capture Makelle but they will leave in bodybags.

It is too bad for TPLF that its supporter, Bashar, is gone in Sudan. Let's hope Afwerki's days are numbered. It might give a window of opportunity for Tigray and Eritrea to mend their relationship and possibly unite. I really doubt Eritreans want Amharas/Oromos become a sole dominant force in the Horn.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

Now you really sound like Baghdad bob . Are you trying to defend from inside Mekele Airport like comical ali? It is over man, it is over! Deal with it! No amount of empty bravado can help at this point! It is over!

Stop recycling your nickname.

Secondy if TPLF is weak it wouldnt take you this long for Abye to capture it.
You said 3 days then 2 weeks and now we are heading to the 3rd week.

TPLF defeated Derg in the 80s.
Even though TPLF out numbered out gunned and being the joke of amharas.
Invading Tigray is easy but your peasant cousins will leave in bodybags.

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

It is too bad for TPLF that its supporter, Bashar, is gone in Sudan. Let's hope Afwerki's days are numbered. It might give a window of opportunity for Tigray and Eritrea to mend their relationship and possibly unite. I really doubt Eritreans want Amharas/Oromos become a sole dominant force in the Horn.

Abye wants to rule he is not going to hand over power to amharas,He used them as cannon fodder .Amhara think they will simply kick out Abye.
They havent learnt the hard lesson that the Baria Mengistu gave them.
He humiliated and killed their elites like flies when they thought he will be a waterboy.

 

[xabashi]

Stop recycling your nickname.

Secondy if TPLF is weak it wouldnt take you this long for Abye to capture it.
You said 3 days then 2 weeks and now we are heading to the 3rd week.

TPLF defeated Derg in the 80s.
Even though TPLF out numbered out gunned and being the joke of amharas.
Invading Tigray is easy but your peasant cousins will leave in bodybags.

As I said before bragging about history has no relevance for today. That is only for lazy and delusional people. What matters is who you are today, forget the past. I said 1-2 weeks max 3. So I still have 4 days and it seems ENDF will storm Mekele in the next 1-3 days. As you can see my prediction is very sharp because I don't follow my delusional wishes but calculate only on hard facts taking into account all available relevant parameters .

Most analysts based their calculation on history and that is where their delusion started. They failed to see the fact that today ENDF is a highly disciplined and well trained professional fighting machine. Again, TPLF this time started a fight with the wrong guy. That was literally a suicidal mission. How stupid!