Disintegration of Ethiopia

[Idilinaa]

Ethiopian politician Jawar Mohammed expresses his fear of Ethiopia’s disintegration under Abiy Ahmed: He is one of the most prominent Ethiopian/Oromo activists who played a crucial role in getting rid of the authoritarian TPLF government in exchange for Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in Ethiopia. Mr. Jawar, who enjoys unparalleled popularity among the Oromo people, gave Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed enough time to steer the country toward a more democratic and stable rule. Instead, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has put the country politically, intellectually and diplomatically on a deadly path. He has also destabilized the Horn of Africa region. In fact, Mr. Jawar expressed his fear that Ethiopia will “disintegrate” under Abiy Ahmed. This conclusion is not limited to Jawar alone, but in fact many experts share the same idea and opinion with Jawar Mohammed



Jawar Mohammed also said that the Oromo-dominated government of the People's Party is losing control of Ethiopia. He said that the government controls only a few major cities while non-government forces control most of the rural areas where the population lives.

So it wont be long before we see this become the outcome

@TekNiKo @Hilmaam @Midas @Xassan @PilferingKombucha @hayran @Rayaale

 

[X29]

Ethiopian politician Jawar Mohammed expresses his fear of Ethiopia’s disintegration under Abiy Ahmed: He is one of the most prominent Ethiopian/Oromo activists who played a crucial role in getting rid of the authoritarian TPLF government in exchange for Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in Ethiopia. Mr. Jawar, who enjoys unparalleled popularity among the Oromo people, gave Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed enough time to steer the country toward a more democratic and stable rule. Instead, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has put the country politically, intellectually and diplomatically on a deadly path. He has also destabilized the Horn of Africa region. In fact, Mr. Jawar expressed his fear that Ethiopia will “disintegrate” under Abiy Ahmed. This conclusion is not limited to Jawar alone, but in fact many experts share the same idea and opinion with Jawar Mohammed



Jawar Mohammed also said that the Oromo-dominated government of the People's Party is losing control of Ethiopia. He said that the government controls only a few major cities while non-government forces control most of the rural areas where the population lives.

So it wont be long before we see this become the outcome

View attachment 350985

@TekNiKo @Hilmaam @Midas @Xassan @PilferingKombucha @hayran @Rayaale

How the hell are these people even trying to keep peace in Somalia when it literally ww3 over there explain this to me I'm highly confused

 

[Ashraf]

Honestly, Abiy ahmed is the most pro somaliweyne person if you think about it. Him destroying the country in his attempt to centralise it is something parallel to siad barre. He’s destroying social cohesion, pitting ethnic groups against each other, radicalising and polarising the nation while ruining Ethiopias image among the international community by being expansionist, stoking balkanisation rhetoric about Ethiopia. It seems the IMF took notice of this and Ethiopias favourable reputation throughout the years with the belief that it could become an African superpower is simply dumbfounded. Their currency has devalued massively against the dollar which means imports have become way more expensive and their debt repayments will skyrocket, while domestic consumption will be dominated by competitors as per their imf economic reforms. They’re about to become Argentina on steroids

 

[Abdixakim]

Prepare for millions of Ethiopians to flood Somalia when this happens

 

[Ashraf]

How the hell are these people even trying to keep peace in Somalia when it literally ww3 over there explain this to me I'm highly confused

Power projection. They don’t have control over their rural areas due to militias and the free movement of weapons but they do have a competent military structure with the limited ability to operate outside their borders. E.g fighter jets transports etc, they really can’t fight/ fund a war with Somalia. 37% of its national budget went into either servicing debts or its military. I wish we had a competent military because we could easily get rid of AS. And project power across our borders. I’d assume if oil drilling had started sooner and the arms embargo was lifted earlier that we’d be like Ethiopia, limited control over rural areas/ somaliland outside of key cities but we’d have limited operational capacities across the nation, meaning we’d be sable to supply ssc, awdal and muakhir state while supporting from the air and the sea

 

[peterpeter]

Ethiopian politician Jawar Mohammed expresses his fear of Ethiopia’s disintegration under Abiy Ahmed: He is one of the most prominent Ethiopian/Oromo activists who played a crucial role in getting rid of the authoritarian TPLF government in exchange for Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in Ethiopia. Mr. Jawar, who enjoys unparalleled popularity among the Oromo people, gave Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed enough time to steer the country toward a more democratic and stable rule. Instead, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has put the country politically, intellectually and diplomatically on a deadly path. He has also destabilized the Horn of Africa region. In fact, Mr. Jawar expressed his fear that Ethiopia will “disintegrate” under Abiy Ahmed. This conclusion is not limited to Jawar alone, but in fact many experts share the same idea and opinion with Jawar Mohammed



Jawar Mohammed also said that the Oromo-dominated government of the People's Party is losing control of Ethiopia. He said that the government controls only a few major cities while non-government forces control most of the rural areas where the population lives.

So it wont be long before we see this become the outcome

View attachment 350985

@TekNiKo @Hilmaam @Midas @Xassan @PilferingKombucha @hayran @Rayaale

People say this all the time, but it wont happen (as much as I salivate for it to happen), they're backed up by people who love them and wont allow it

 

[TekNiKo]

The West won’t allow it, Ethiopia is their bulwark against Islam in the Horn.

 

[peterpeter]

The West won’t allow it, Ethiopia is their bulwark against Islam in the Horn.

its a shame wallah would love a meteor to hit right in the center

 

[X29]

What I believe personally it can happen in trump administration trump doesn't give rat ass about Africa so this could work to out advantage

 

[Idilinaa]

How the hell are these people even trying to keep peace in Somalia when it literally ww3 over there explain this to me I'm highly confused

There is no peacekeeping. Earn millions while sitting in fortified bases doing nothing, they depend on that money to keep their weak military intact. It's gonna come crashing down for them when Trump takes office because is going stop the funding for it.

 

[Rayaale]

Someone should study the pr of Ethiopia it’s very impressive how they convinced the world of their excellence when in reality they are living in Stone Age outside big cities.

 

[Midas]

Ethiopian politician Jawar Mohammed expresses his fear of Ethiopia’s disintegration under Abiy Ahmed: He is one of the most prominent Ethiopian/Oromo activists who played a crucial role in getting rid of the authoritarian TPLF government in exchange for Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in Ethiopia. Mr. Jawar, who enjoys unparalleled popularity among the Oromo people, gave Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed enough time to steer the country toward a more democratic and stable rule. Instead, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has put the country politically, intellectually and diplomatically on a deadly path. He has also destabilized the Horn of Africa region. In fact, Mr. Jawar expressed his fear that Ethiopia will “disintegrate” under Abiy Ahmed. This conclusion is not limited to Jawar alone, but in fact many experts share the same idea and opinion with Jawar Mohammed



Jawar Mohammed also said that the Oromo-dominated government of the People's Party is losing control of Ethiopia. He said that the government controls only a few major cities while non-government forces control most of the rural areas where the population lives.

So it wont be long before we see this become the outcome

View attachment 350985

@TekNiKo @Hilmaam @Midas @Xassan @PilferingKombucha @hayran @Rayaale

Yeah I've been see this guy around recently. I don't know how credible he is since it seems like he's a very partisan figure. But one thing for sure it's been 2 years since the tigray war ended. But the situation in ethiopia hasn't improved at all. It's actually in some ways in a worse position then it was right after the war ended. Probaly the biggest thing is that the core regions are unstable and even addis abba people feel the desperation and ethnic resentment. Imagine how much worse it must be far away from the capital.

I'm still unsure about collapse . But expect something to happen since the next election is 2025. Thats when we're gonna see shit really hit the fan.

 

[Internet Nomad]

I feel like you want this to happen more than it’s actually happening.

No doubt ethiopia is chaotic but has it never been.

 

[Idilinaa]

People say this all the time, but it wont happen (as much as I salivate for it to happen), they're backed up by people who love them and wont allow it

The West won’t allow it, Ethiopia is their bulwark against Islam in the Horn.

If it's an internal conflict between regional fractions and not another country they wont intervene directly to prevent it , think about it they never done it in the past and it's going to be difficult to provide diplomatic cover if Ethiopian government commits human rights abuses.

Plus being that they are in serious debt, it effectively ties their hand, not really sure how much military aid they can receive to fight it

 

[Idilinaa]

I feel like you want this to happen more than it’s actually happening.

No doubt ethiopia is chaotic but has it never been.

I actually believe this will be a solution to make the region at peace and progress it.

If Ethiopia allows for a peaceful secession and allows itself to dissolve it will actually do the whole region good. It will allow people to work with eachother more as neighbors i feel without hostilities.

Ethiopians needs to lose the PR/Myth maintenance and be candid about their realities and struggles so they can hope to over come it. It also would be best for peaceful secession to happen, take a page out of the book of yugoslavia and the old soviet federation. It's time to let go and we all work with eachother as friendly neighbors.

All they are doing is preventing the potential of the region as a whole and keeping it in a perpetual cycle by keeping the Ethiopian myth alive.

Spoke about why this time around will be different:

It's not really incredible its how most countries operate, they have regime changes and overthrows or secession. Even Somalia went through a regime change it's early beginnings. The type of ordeal you see in the greater middleast and Somalia is not the result of internal reconfiguration but externally driven proxy wars/insurgencies and invasions to overthrow states that creates this type of collapse.

So outside of Somalis/ONLF. Each group fought to reform and replace the regime and were firmly inside the Ethiopian project, the oromo, amhara and tigray. So the state Ethiopian project continued but it will collapse or disintegrate precisely because it's built on on a false and unsustainable premise in the long run.

Meles Zenawi actually put things into motion by trying to prevent that disintegration and jis attempt to combat insurgencies. What he did to maintain his grip is that he made Ethiopia into a police state and he indigenized the fight as i have spoken to you about before with the example of Liyu police.

Read this thread:

Self-determination, secession, and indigeneity in Ethiopia's federation

Both the Federal and Regional State Constitutions of Ethiopia provide provisions for self-determination and secession. Article 39(4) of the Federal Co…

www.sciencedirect.com

Some ethnic-based political parties and factional groups in Ethiopia are currently determined to establish a new republic through separatist self-determination. The OLF, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Liberation Front (ALF), and the TPLF are currently fighting to establish independent sovereign states (Yinebeb, 2020)

 

[berberaboy66]

This is cope.

Ethiopia has faced countless civil wars, insurgencies, governments overthrown, and every single time a new replacement government has come and continued business as usual.

This is what Somalis tell themselves to make them feel better and to not feel like they are an absolute failure.

 

[Midas]

Oh an another thing is that will likely see an eritrea-ethiopia war next year. The fact that ethiopia state media has started ramping up anti-isais propganda to the point of call him a dictator and an illegitimate leader which abiy hasn't done before.

There's also the fact that assab like that one video said is incredible close to ethiopias border and asmara is on the opposite side of the country. Plus there is only one road connecting assab to the rest of eritrea and ethiopia could just blockade that road.

 

[Idilinaa]

This is cope.

Ethiopia has faced countless civil wars, insurgencies, governments overthrown, and every single time a new replacement government has come and continued business as usual.

This is what Somalis tell themselves to make them feel better and to not feel like they are an absolute failure.

Outside of Somalis/ONLF and Eritrea. Each insurgent group fought to reform and replace the regime and were firmly inside the Ethiopian state project, the oromo, amhara and tigray. So thats why the state Ethiopian project continued but it will collapse or disintegrate precisely because it's built on on a false and unsustainable premise in the long run.

You can't compare it with Somalia which wasn't even a civil war or a local populous rebellion. It's been a series of foreign-Ethiopian based proxies and invasions/interventions.


Meles Zenawi actually put the current situation into motion by trying to prevent that disintegration and attempt to combat insurgencies. What he did to maintain his grip is that he made Ethiopia into a police state and he indigenized the fight as i have spoken to you about before with the example of Liyu police.



But it is now backfiring on them in major way.


So getting Ethiopia out of our hair will do us good. Ethiopians knew they didn't have the military capability of waging a direct war on Somalia and so they sowed divisions and chaos from within.

If Somalia is absolute failure, then Ethiopia is worse than a failure. They continued the state only to accomplish next to no progress and live in abject misery and perpetual protracted conflict.

They fight to destabilize their neighbors so they can keep their backward mountain enclave continue as a country on paper.

 

[Flightboi]

View attachment 350988
View attachment 350989
Honestly, Abiy ahmed is the most pro somaliweyne person if you think about it. Him destroying the country in his attempt to centralise it is something parallel to siad barre. He’s destroying social cohesion, pitting ethnic groups against each other, radicalising and polarising the nation while ruining Ethiopias image among the international community by being expansionist, stoking balkanisation rhetoric about Ethiopia. It seems the IMF took notice of this and Ethiopias favourable reputation throughout the years with the belief that it could become an African superpower is simply dumbfounded. Their currency has devalued massively against the dollar which means imports have become way more expensive and their debt repayments will skyrocket, while domestic consumption will be dominated by competitors as per their imf economic reforms. They’re about to become Argentina on steroids

Can you link the article? Is this a recent article?

 

[Flightboi]

Oh an another thing is that will likely see an eritrea-ethiopia war next year. The fact that ethiopia state media has started ramping up anti-isais propganda to the point of call him a dictator and an illegitimate leader which abiy hasn't done before.

There's also the fact that assab like that one video said is incredible close to ethiopias border and asmara is on the opposite side of the country. Plus there is only one road connecting assab to the rest of eritrea and ethiopia could just blockade that road.

I don't think an Eritrea/Ethiopia war is going to happen. Ethiopia is too busy with all the militia's inside Ethiopia. They would most likely only fight Eritrea if the militias inside Ethiopia either didn't exist or they all signed peace treaties with the government.