Now that Donald Trump has won the presidency , i think it will be good opportunity to analyze or predict how Somalia will fare and what should be the logical move
In case some of you don't remember on my Greater Isreal thread, i sourced Somalia's current day predicament and blunder in their alignments and dependencies. Yes its because of Ethiopia, Traitors and their foreign allies destabilization efforts , but it is also because we didn't have real allies at the time, that could either aid or help defend us and those we did depend on were unreliable and brought with them more intrusions and conditions.
Same mistake was repeated by the Islamic Courts Union which resulted in their unmaking:
Iran, Russia and North Korea for example is sustained by their allies that share interests with them, economically and politically. But they also reached self-sufficiency in terms of economic, military and energy sense, especially Iran and Russia, despite being perceived as enemies of the west. There is little they can do to effect them.
Because of our sell out regional leaders. Somalia is perceived as western leaning and they are effectively propped up by them to maintain stay, to our detriment.
Here is how i see the real alignment for Somalia if it follows its Geo-Political interests:
Proven Allies:
- Turkey
- Egypt
- Eritrea
Potential Allies:
- China (with major caution and risk reduction, china is more than likely trying to unload its labor demand on Somalia and exploit our natural resources to aid their their manufacturing ) They are important in counter acting United States/Isreal in the region that work through Ethiopia and they can provide technical assistances that are much needed.
- Iran: (This also comes with a major risk since the Iranian regime wants to spread Shia Islam and they are the biggest destabilizers on the sea, piracy, illegal fishing etc2016 Iranian diplomats and aid agencies was outsted from Somalia for spreading Shi'ite ideology. ) Same reason as China.
Enemies:
- Ethiopia
- Kenya
- UAE
- Isreal
- United States
Towards Ethiopia we should sever all diplomatic and commercial ties with them. Somalia should not recognize the legitimacy of Ethiopia as a state.
Second move is to limit our economic and military dependencies. The Kacaan's regime's goal was to make Somalia self-sufficient , it became so in parts and in other parts it retained military dependencies particularly with US/Soviet. The current day government is wholly dependent on external states.
Decreasing our military dependencies with the help of Turkey can be achieved as they are investing high tech military factories , where we will increase our capacity to manufacture arms, vehicles and so on.
When it comes to food production and agriculture, Somalia can produce every crop and has large livestock population to provide meat.
We don't have large debt either, or borrowings weighing us down. So we can normalize our economy and owe no conditions attached to loans to follow.
Because we have large energy supplies, we won't be Energy dependent and rely on imports in a few years.
Somalia should also back out of joining EAC. There is no benefit for us to be part of the East African Community, economically nor politically. Most East African nations will side with Ethiopia, they also are actively involved destabilizing efforts in Somalia and Somalia has disputes with Kenya over maritime border
Economically it makes no sense, this would be the equivalent of Norway Joining the EU.
Now. Not understanding that it gives other countries in the block entitlements to our territorial and marine resources and especially the disputed offshore oil.Norway another oil rich maritime nation never entered the EU for similar reasons. The Khat trade flowing into Somalia from Kenya is also going to be hard to prevent.
There is nothing that we need that EAC will provide to us if we are real about it. It's a boneheaded move. Somalia should align themselves towards more East as we have done throughout our history.
In case some of you don't remember on my Greater Isreal thread, i sourced Somalia's current day predicament and blunder in their alignments and dependencies. Yes its because of Ethiopia, Traitors and their foreign allies destabilization efforts , but it is also because we didn't have real allies at the time, that could either aid or help defend us and those we did depend on were unreliable and brought with them more intrusions and conditions.
The Kacaan government was also seen as a threat (not just ICU) by Ethiopia/Isreal and a threat to Soviets ambitions to expand into the red sea , but the US even though they dislked the Kacaan regime preferred it at time over Ethiopia because they were trying to limit Soviet and communist influence in the region, they would switch over to Ethiopia's side in a heartbeat if they re-aligned themselves back with them.
Because before this the United States and Somalias relations deteriorated following the coup in 1969. Somalia went far in beyond to counter and limit US infiltration in the Indian ocean.
All of them had a problem with Somalia's Islamic leanings and our territorial protectionism btw, for the Soviet we weren't socialist or marxist enough because we didn't fully commit to the ideology in the real sense as we saw it as a tool to develop our economy and was Muslim oriented in our belief system and foreign policy. That's why they switched to Ethiopia's side the minute the Derg took over to profess communism.
When the Kacaan government collapsed it was golden opportunity by the US to implant their influence in the region and place a puppet government allied with them espousing secular capitalist democratic beliefs and for them to create a military base. The same way that they had done in Korea after the cold war, and throughout Europe and Japan after world war 2. There is a qoute that Walaalwhoops posted of a US army general professing this, i cant find it now though.
For a decade the United States push into Somalia and Indian ocean/red sea was subverted not only by the governments action but also by Somalia's alignment with Soviet. The downfall was in not managing and maneuvering the fall out with Soviet in a good way, which ended up backfiring on us. This is partly also due the fact there was not bigger more powerful ally ship available that could replace and compete with their backing of Ethiopia.
Same mistake was repeated by the Islamic Courts Union which resulted in their unmaking:
Iran, Russia and North Korea for example is sustained by their allies that share interests with them, economically and politically. But they also reached self-sufficiency in terms of economic, military and energy sense, especially Iran and Russia, despite being perceived as enemies of the west. There is little they can do to effect them.
Because of our sell out regional leaders. Somalia is perceived as western leaning and they are effectively propped up by them to maintain stay, to our detriment.
Here is how i see the real alignment for Somalia if it follows its Geo-Political interests:
Proven Allies:
- Turkey
- Egypt
- Eritrea
Potential Allies:
- China (with major caution and risk reduction, china is more than likely trying to unload its labor demand on Somalia and exploit our natural resources to aid their their manufacturing ) They are important in counter acting United States/Isreal in the region that work through Ethiopia and they can provide technical assistances that are much needed.
- Iran: (This also comes with a major risk since the Iranian regime wants to spread Shia Islam and they are the biggest destabilizers on the sea, piracy, illegal fishing etc2016 Iranian diplomats and aid agencies was outsted from Somalia for spreading Shi'ite ideology. ) Same reason as China.
Enemies:
- Ethiopia
- Kenya
- UAE
- Isreal
- United States
Towards Ethiopia we should sever all diplomatic and commercial ties with them. Somalia should not recognize the legitimacy of Ethiopia as a state.
Second move is to limit our economic and military dependencies. The Kacaan's regime's goal was to make Somalia self-sufficient , it became so in parts and in other parts it retained military dependencies particularly with US/Soviet. The current day government is wholly dependent on external states.
Decreasing our military dependencies with the help of Turkey can be achieved as they are investing high tech military factories , where we will increase our capacity to manufacture arms, vehicles and so on.
When it comes to food production and agriculture, Somalia can produce every crop and has large livestock population to provide meat.
We don't have large debt either, or borrowings weighing us down. So we can normalize our economy and owe no conditions attached to loans to follow.
Because we have large energy supplies, we won't be Energy dependent and rely on imports in a few years.
Somalia should also back out of joining EAC. There is no benefit for us to be part of the East African Community, economically nor politically. Most East African nations will side with Ethiopia, they also are actively involved destabilizing efforts in Somalia and Somalia has disputes with Kenya over maritime border
Economically it makes no sense, this would be the equivalent of Norway Joining the EU.
Now. Not understanding that it gives other countries in the block entitlements to our territorial and marine resources and especially the disputed offshore oil.Norway another oil rich maritime nation never entered the EU for similar reasons. The Khat trade flowing into Somalia from Kenya is also going to be hard to prevent.
There is nothing that we need that EAC will provide to us if we are real about it. It's a boneheaded move. Somalia should align themselves towards more East as we have done throughout our history.
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