This is the latest political rumour floating around. At the same time, there are reports that Djibouti and Somaliland's relations have soured. Is IOG, the godfather of "Irrirism", trying to sabotage Berbera by offering up Hobyo instead?
HSM + Turkey to offer Hobyo to Ethiopia, if Berbera Deal is withdrawn?
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People are complaining about Ethiopian troops coming in and out when they want, that's the least of our worries. Imagine these people having a naval base, that will be the final nail in the Somalia coffin.
Explain this logic?
If you mean it's the final nail in the coffin of Somalia pretending to be on par with either Ethiopia or Kenya then probably yes. The charade is over but then 30 years of civil war was always going to incur costs. Somalia has fallen far behind but the same attitudes persist that overnight success will return which just isn't realistic and will only lead to further failure.
What's the difference between Hobyo, Berbera, Zeila, Kismayo or Bosaso? Xabashi is free to trade with any somali port like a good neighbor but they aint getting any ownership of more Somalilands.
This is what the Prime minister said today:
Btw is the source "Somalidigest" ?
Berbera is fully built, has a road corridor, an airport , no pirate infested waters, no terrorists on land, it's much closer. Also close to the red sea and offering a naval base to protect the shipping lanes too. Also it's under a government that can be trusted to honor a deal. (This is a great deal).
I think Ethiopia's major problem, in looking to secure it's own interests is that it can't trust the FGS. Trust is probably the biggest factor if it goes into invest in a port, what's the likelihood that it could hold on to it's investment? What's the likelihood that the roads will remain clear. You get the picture.
I personally would not enter into an agreement with the FGS. I would not invest in any territory controlled by the FGS unless maybe I was a country like Turkey because I would be big enough to turn Somalia into a dependent and a protectorate and protect my investments.
Somalis using stakes in ports as bargaining chips is nothing new, and while I'm often against it, I sometimes see it as a necessary evil.
First, Somaliland cannot afford nor has the desire to sour its relationships with either Djibouti or Ethiopia. Djibouti has no influence over Abiy Ahmed's Ethiopia, as they have different goals.
Djibouti opposes any port deals between Somaliland or any other federal or regional authority. About the port deal, the Berbera port makes more infrastructural sense for Ethiopia, as much of the infrastructure to and from there is intact. It can also utilize parts of the infrastructure connections to the port of Djibouti, and on top of all that the deal is sanctioned by the UAE, unlike HSM's stronger ties with Turkey and Qatar.
Second, Hobyo is set to receive a $300 million investment to support the upcoming oil and gas drilling. Ethiopia is simply too late to the party, as other foreign investors have already made their deals.
Cynically speaking, selling a port in Lower Shabelle might be his best option, though it would require navigating through deep Al-Shabaab territory. Anyone entering Bakool from one side is unlikely to reach Lower Shabelle alive. This in every way, shape and form inferior to the Berbera deal.
Furthermore, this will only legitimize Al-Shabaab and their crusades against the foreign-aligned government. Galgaduud and Southern mudug are just freshly liberated and still have Shabaab presence, HSM would lose all those gains the moment he'd sign such a deal.
A more likely scenario is that he legitimizes the deal for a substantial amount of money, with Ethiopia making a vague announcement that both Somaliland and Somalia can interpret to their advantage. However, given the current state of affairs, things are likely to remain as they are.
First, Somaliland cannot afford nor has the desire to sour its relationships with either Djibouti or Ethiopia. Djibouti has no influence over Abiy Ahmed's Ethiopia, as they have different goals.
Djibouti opposes any port deals between Somaliland or any other federal or regional authority. About the port deal, the Berbera port makes more infrastructural sense for Ethiopia, as much of the infrastructure to and from there is intact. It can also utilize parts of the infrastructure connections to the port of Djibouti, and on top of all that the deal is sanctioned by the UAE, unlike HSM's stronger ties with Turkey and Qatar.
Second, Hobyo is set to receive a $300 million investment to support the upcoming oil and gas drilling. Ethiopia is simply too late to the party, as other foreign investors have already made their deals.
Cynically speaking, selling a port in Lower Shabelle might be his best option, though it would require navigating through deep Al-Shabaab territory. Anyone entering Bakool from one side is unlikely to reach Lower Shabelle alive. This in every way, shape and form inferior to the Berbera deal.
Furthermore, this will only legitimize Al-Shabaab and their crusades against the foreign-aligned government. Galgaduud and Southern mudug are just freshly liberated and still have Shabaab presence, HSM would lose all those gains the moment he'd sign such a deal.
A more likely scenario is that he legitimizes the deal for a substantial amount of money, with Ethiopia making a vague announcement that both Somaliland and Somalia can interpret to their advantage. However, given the current state of affairs, things are likely to remain as they are.
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True, but Somalis donβt need to give them a naval base just because we fell behind. Most of us are not against a port deal with them; they should just go through the proper channels.
Technically Somaliland is giving the naval base because that's part of the fall off. Part of the country seceded within legally defined borders. No real effort either diplomatic or military was made to reunify. So the decision fell out of Mogadishu's hands.
If Somaliland gave up a naval base for anything less than absolute recognition (which to me is still far far too cheap) it would be the most insane political decision of all time.
Then why arenβt Ethiopians using berbera, majority of their trade is still with Djibouti, even though they already have another option, they have used it at all
You mean retarded
There was no gov to reach out to the northern brothers till 2007. At that time Mogadishu and south/central was full of al shabab, so understandably had hands full. I wouldnβt say till recent times Somalia is gradually getting into stronger position, and has been in talks with Somaliland.
But honestly, how are talks going to go now that most of sool is gone? Is that why bixi is making a terrible mistake? thinking he can get military assistance to gain back lost territory and at the same time gain recognition? Short sighted quick fix wonβt work. Might actually back fire.
My miskiin brothers with mental illness canβt control their condition. Somaliland can bro
Somaliland's negotiating position really only depends on recieving international recogntion and the likelihood of being recognized.
As a defacto adminstration it's simply on a par with any group like SSc, or Puntland. It's existence depends on the recognition of Mogadishu and the acceptance of groups it governs and it's military strength.
Now international recognition is on the table, defacto control is less important. Sool can't leave if it's legally considered part of Somaliland. The game changes completely, so that's why Mogadishu has dropped everything to try and stop this MoU.
HSM even said he wished he could go back to the time before the MoU because things were looking good for him. If the MoU goes through and Somaliland is recognized, then Mogadishu will have lost the long game which was to assume Somaliland wouldn't be recognized and to simply absorb Somaliland like any other region with no special privelleges or acknowledgement.
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I think Muuse Biixi has realized that the window for secession is getting smaller and smaller. Somalia despite all of its problems has been on an upward trajectory over the last decade and the main argument for Somalilandβs self-determination gets weaker and weaker with every passing year. Al-Shabaab has genuinely been the one thing keeping the secessionist dream alive over the last decade and a half.
To me, this is an all-out gamble that the MOU leads to a wave of recognition from other countries, and if it doesnβt, it will at least strengthen Somalilandβs position in negotiations with the FGS (which will eventually happen). I believe the Sool issue was probably the final nail in the coffin and what pushed muse biixi this far. The funny thing is I donβt know how this would help them in said negotiations. The FGS is no longer willing to turn a blind eye and will address the issue as soon as it is capable of doing so. Somaliland also probably wouldβve been able to achieve a confederal-style agreement with the FGS anyway at this point, which is the best they couldβve hoped for. Mostly full control over what goes on in their territories while ceding certain things (foreign affairs, defense to an extent, etc.) to a new entity with positions split between Somaliland and Somalia.
How would SL achieve confederation when Puntland hasn't achieved its lesser goals.
The FGS is only interested in a unitary state and I think that's been the case since day 1, as it gets stronger it abandons interest in power sharing. You can see agreements over air traffic control where a ATC board was supposed to be established and this never happened. Mogadishu just took control. The new constitution is another example, there are probably many examples of this.
Hooyo doesnβt work from a strategic, economic and security perspective.
Sool was ruled by the Brits not isaaq. The Brits left decades ago, meaning that sool is legally for the people of sool. So if u want sool to be yours, then youβre going to have to conquer it first since it historically never belonged to u.
but that can only be attempted after the recognition youβve been looking for over 3 decades.
While your claims have some validity to them I donβt think thereβs a willingness for direct military action in Somaliland even if the FGS had the capability of doing so, which means any agreement would be brokered at the negotiating table. Mogadishu will never recognize SL and the IC wonβt either as long as Somalia continues to improve. I think that when faced with the prospect of decades in limbo both sides will try to come to some sort of agreement. The FGS main worry would be other regions demanding a similar arrangement (e.g., Puntland) so they would probably wait until theyβve been able to put the FMS in line before granting SLand such a concession.
Iβm curious about Ethiopiaβs perspective. It seems theyβre banking on other countries recognizing SL (pretty unlikely) or for the Somali government to remain incompetent for the next few decades (more likely but hopefully not). Either way any Somali government with a modicum of competence would immediately torpedo that naval base ASAP with little to no pushback from the IC.
Did Berbera ever belong to Hawiye? If you want to go down that road.
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