HSM + Turkey to offer Hobyo to Ethiopia, if Berbera Deal is withdrawn?

[Itsnotthateasy]

While your claims have some validity to them I don’t think there’s a willingness for direct military action in Somaliland even if the FGS had the capability of doing so, which means any agreement would be brokered at the negotiating table. Mogadishu will never recognize SL and the IC won’t either as long as Somalia continues to improve. I think that when faced with the prospect of decades in limbo both sides will try to come to some sort of agreement. The FGS main worry would be other regions demanding a similar arrangement (e.g., Puntland) so they would probably wait until they’ve been able to put the FMS in line before granting SLand such a concession.

I’m curious about Ethiopia’s perspective. It seems they’re banking on other countries recognizing SL (pretty unlikely) or for the Somali government to remain incompetent for the next few decades (more likely but hopefully not). Either way any Somali government with a modicum of competence would immediately torpedo that naval base ASAP with little to no pushback from the IC.

I don't agree with that. Mogadishu just lacks the capacity to reclaim the territory.

Whether other countries recognize SL just depends on a few factors, their strategic interests in Somaliland outweigh their interests in Somalia, or there isn't a massive penalty for recognizing Somaliland. I think Somalia is so weak that it Ethiopia could recognize Somaliland and still maintain interests in Somalia. Somalia has improved but it was starting from a low base. Countries are not judged on improvement but what they offer and what they can threaten to take away if their interests are threatened. Somalia spent 30 years away from the world scene, it doesn't control it's territory, it's government is extremely corrupt so it's not really offering much and it's not offering any real threat. Somalia made the MoU into a security issue so the west would step in and protect it's interests but it hasn't worked so far.

 

[AlteKartel]

I don't agree with that. Mogadishu just lacks the capacity to reclaim the territory.

Whether other countries recognize SL just depends on a few factors, their strategic interests in Somaliland outweigh their interests in Somalia, or there isn't a massive penalty for recognizing Somaliland. I think Somalia is so weak that it Ethiopia could recognize Somaliland and still maintain interests in Somalia. Somalia has improved but it was starting from a low base. Countries are not judged on improvement but what they offer and what they can threaten to take away if their interests are threatened. Somalia spent 30 years away from the world scene, it doesn't control it's territory, it's government is extremely corrupt so it's not really offering much and it's not offering any real threat. Somalia made the MoU into a security issue so the west would step in and protect it's interests but it hasn't worked so far.

Mogadishu will at some point have the capacity to reclaim the territory. Arms embargo is done and there’s an asymmetry in the weaponry Somalia will be able to obtain when compared to Somaliland. Despite that, any competent Somali leader (which to be fair to you, we do not currently have) should realize that the Somaliland issue can’t be solved with force.

Somalia offered absolutely nothing to the world for 30 years and you weren’t recognized. 30+ years of being pretty much absolutely nothing but a drain on western resources and you’re still been unable to appeal your case to the IC. Countries are not judged on their improvement but the Somalia of today is far better than the Somalia of 2009. If you were unable to achieve recognition after 15 years of civil war when Somalia was nothing more than tribal fiefdoms, it’s unlikely that you’ll do so as the country continues to get back on its feet. The only country in the world who could truly benefit from a recognized Somaliland is Ethiopia and even they seem to be wary of the cost. There will come a time when the FGS controls the entirety of its territory and hopefully the governments decide to negotiate in good-faith rather than fight. You’re worried about Mogadishu being the reason for escalation, but I’m more worried about your citizens being unable to accept anything less than the pipe dream they’ve been sold by their leaders the last 30 years. Regardless, it’s far more likely to me that we’ll see a Somali confederation at some point than a fully recognized and independent Somaliland.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Mogadishu will at some point have the capacity to reclaim the territory. Arms embargo is done and there’s an asymmetry in the weaponry Somalia will be able to obtain when compared to Somaliland. Despite that, any competent Somali leader (which to be fair to you, we do not currently have) should realize that the Somaliland issue can’t be solved with force.

Somalia offered absolutely nothing to the world for 30 years and you weren’t recognized. 30+ years of being pretty much absolutely nothing but a drain on western resources and you’re still been unable to appeal your case to the IC. Countries are not judged on their improvement but the Somalia of today is far better than the Somalia of 2009. If you were unable to achieve recognition after 15 years of civil war when Somalia was nothing more than tribal fiefdoms, it’s unlikely that you’ll do so as the country continues to get back on its feet. The only country in the world who could truly benefit from a recognized Somaliland is Ethiopia and even they seem to be wary of the cost. There will come a time when the FGS controls the entirety of its territory and hopefully the governments decide to negotiate in good-faith rather than fight. You’re worried about Mogadishu being the reason for escalation, but I’m more worried about your citizens being unable to accept anything less than the pipe dream they’ve been sold by their leaders the last 30 years. Regardless, it’s far more likely to me that we’ll see a Somali confederation at some point than a fully recognized and independent Somaliland.

I think the issue will be settled before the south is settled is my opinion.

 

[AlteKartel]

I think the issue will be settled before the south is settled is my opinion.

We’ll see what happens then

 

[Som]

I don't agree with that. Mogadishu just lacks the capacity to reclaim the territory.

Whether other countries recognize SL just depends on a few factors, their strategic interests in Somaliland outweigh their interests in Somalia, or there isn't a massive penalty for recognizing Somaliland. I think Somalia is so weak that it Ethiopia could recognize Somaliland and still maintain interests in Somalia. Somalia has improved but it was starting from a low base. Countries are not judged on improvement but what they offer and what they can threaten to take away if their interests are threatened. Somalia spent 30 years away from the world scene, it doesn't control it's territory, it's government is extremely corrupt so it's not really offering much and it's not offering any real threat. Somalia made the MoU into a security issue so the west would step in and protect it's interests but it hasn't worked so far.

Let's say the MoU is finalized so Ethiopia gets Berbera and SL is recognized. What does it change for the FGS? Somaliland would be recognized by only one country and would be upgraded from no recognition to a status even less than Ossetia and Abkhazia which are recognized by Russia and it's allies (Syria, North Korea, Cuba). Offering a port in Somalia just to avoid this seems unreasonable. We don't control SL anyway and they will never ever agree to any kind of reunification so what's the point? I'd rather keep the rest of Somalia intact

 

[Som]

Mogadishu will at some point have the capacity to reclaim the territory. Arms embargo is done and there’s an asymmetry in the weaponry Somalia will be able to obtain when compared to Somaliland. Despite that, any competent Somali leader (which to be fair to you, we do not currently have) should realize that the Somaliland issue can’t be solved with force.

Somalia offered absolutely nothing to the world for 30 years and you weren’t recognized. 30+ years of being pretty much absolutely nothing but a drain on western resources and you’re still been unable to appeal your case to the IC. Countries are not judged on their improvement but the Somalia of today is far better than the Somalia of 2009. If you were unable to achieve recognition after 15 years of civil war when Somalia was nothing more than tribal fiefdoms, it’s unlikely that you’ll do so as the country continues to get back on its feet. The only country in the world who could truly benefit from a recognized Somaliland is Ethiopia and even they seem to be wary of the cost. There will come a time when the FGS controls the entirety of its territory and hopefully the governments decide to negotiate in good-faith rather than fight. You’re worried about Mogadishu being the reason for escalation, but I’m more worried about your citizens being unable to accept anything less than the pipe dream they’ve been sold by their leaders the last 30 years. Regardless, it’s far more likely to me that we’ll see a Somali confederation at some point than a fully recognized and independent Somaliland.

I was always a pan somalist and I'm in theory against Somaliland separatism but tbh at this point I'm not even sure if reclaim Hargeysa is the right thing to do. Somalilander's hate for Somalia is unreal even if the FGS was able to reclaim all of SL it would become the most unloyal and rebellious region which would only create more grievances and issues. Those guys decided they are closer to amxaro so let them be amxaro, if I was HSM I would push for a deal with SL : full immediate recognition in exchange for SSC being part of Somalia. Why should we keep pushing for a fifth column inside our country?

 

[Som]

I don't agree with that. Mogadishu just lacks the capacity to reclaim the territory.

Whether other countries recognize SL just depends on a few factors, their strategic interests in Somaliland outweigh their interests in Somalia, or there isn't a massive penalty for recognizing Somaliland. I think Somalia is so weak that it Ethiopia could recognize Somaliland and still maintain interests in Somalia. Somalia has improved but it was starting from a low base. Countries are not judged on improvement but what they offer and what they can threaten to take away if their interests are threatened. Somalia spent 30 years away from the world scene, it doesn't control it's territory, it's government is extremely corrupt so it's not really offering much and it's not offering any real threat. Somalia made the MoU into a security issue so the west would step in and protect it's interests but it hasn't worked so far.

You are understanding Ethiopia's weakness and overestimating it's strength. If this was Miles Zenawi's Ethiopia I'd agree with you but 2024 Ethiopia is very fragmented with many strong separatist movements like Oromo and Tigray who would agitate more for independence if SL is recognized. That's why Ethiopia is currently trying to get the port without fully recognizing Somaliland. The IC community isn't very fond of Abiy, I guess they wouldn't like a unilateral recognition of SL.

 

[AlteKartel]

I was always a pan somalist and I'm in theory against Somaliland separatism but tbh at this point I'm not even sure if reclaim Hargeysa is the right thing to do. Somalilander's hate for Somalia is unreal even if the FGS was able to reclaim all of SL it would become the most unloyal and rebellious region which would only create more grievances and issues. Those guys decided they are closer to amxaro so let them be amxaro, if I was HSM I would push for a deal with SL : full immediate recognition in exchange for SSC being part of Somalia. Why should we keep pushing for a fifth column inside our country?

Economic growth floats all boats. An Al-shabaab free Somalia (god willing) would outperform Somaliland. At a certain point the government would be forced to negotiate or further erode their position. A confederation allows them to go back to their people and make the argument they reclaimed their sovereignty and solves the secession issue for Somalia. It’s not a full win-win but it’s a pragmatic solution. Recognizing SL is not an option for Mogadishu though and I doubt it will ever be an option barring a massive shift in regional dynamics.

 

[Three Moons]

Tanzania got a $10 billion investment for their port from China, Morocco has attracted multibillion dollar investments and loans from the European Union and the World Bank to built the largest ports in Africa in Tangier and Dakhla. These old men in Somalia because of their myopic and divisive politics are throwing away one of Somalia’s biggest assets for pocket-change when they don’t even need a single neighbour to have booming ports, because 50% of the multi-trillion world container trade goes through their territorial waters.

 

[Som]

Economic growth floats all boats. An Al-shabaab free Somalia (god willing) would outperform Somaliland. At a certain point the government would be forced to negotiate or further erode their position. A confederation allows them to go back to their people and make the argument they reclaimed their sovereignty and solves the secession issue for Somalia. It’s not a full win-win but it’s a pragmatic solution. Recognizing SL is not an option for Mogadishu though and I doubt it will ever be an option barring a massive shift in regional dynamics.

Confederation's are usually the step before separation. My point is that SL (mostly Isaaq) have been de facto independent for 30 years , most of them are young and have never seen a stable Somalia , the middle aged Lander who is 40 was just 7 years old when the war started. The one who is 50 was just 17 . They feel no attachment to the rest of somalia except maybe language and Deen. Integrating them into Somalia would me a massively difficult task which we don't have time and resources for. Also I don't want their politicians in Xamar , Somaliland leaders have been trying to sabotage the union from day one after independence. I'd rather get SSC and say goodbye to the rest of SL so that we can focus on those who still have somalinimo in them

 

[Som]

Economic growth floats all boats. An Al-shabaab free Somalia (god willing) would outperform Somaliland. At a certain point the government would be forced to negotiate or further erode their position. A confederation allows them to go back to their people and make the argument they reclaimed their sovereignty and solves the secession issue for Somalia. It’s not a full win-win but it’s a pragmatic solution. Recognizing SL is not an option for Mogadishu though and I doubt it will ever be an option barring a massive shift in regional dynamics.

Btw I have friends and extended family who are die hard SL supporters. They are good people, but they are brainwashed to a point of no return. They would rather unite with Israel than Somalia. Can't trust a region where they sing "I'm closer to amxaro" and nobody says shit

 

[Nin123]

@killerxsmoke xabasha will take your port my nigga.

 

[Hilmaam]

Confederation's are usually the step before separation. My point is that SL (mostly Isaaq) have been de facto independent for 30 years , most of them are young and have never seen a stable Somalia , the middle aged Lander who is 40 was just 7 years old when the war started. The one who is 50 was just 17 . They feel no attachment to the rest of somalia except maybe language and Deen. Integrating them into Somalia would me a massively difficult task which we don't have time and resources for. Also I don't want their politicians in Xamar , Somaliland leaders have been trying to sabotage the union from day one after independence. I'd rather get SSC and say goodbye to the rest of SL so that we can focus on those who still have somalinimo in them

It will be domino effect for region Somalia will collapse and other regions will follow suit if somalilnd is allowed to exit

 

[AlteKartel]

Confederation's are usually the step before separation. My point is that SL (mostly Isaaq) have been de facto independent for 30 years , most of them are young and have never seen a stable Somalia , the middle aged Lander who is 40 was just 7 years old when the war started. The one who is 50 was just 17 . They feel no attachment to the rest of somalia except maybe language and Deen. Integrating them into Somalia would me a massively difficult task which we don't have time and resources for. Also I don't want their politicians in Xamar , Somaliland leaders have been trying to sabotage the union from day one after independence. I'd rather get SSC and say goodbye to the rest of SL so that we can focus on those who still have somalinimo in them

There’s many places in the world where two groups have had issues like Somalia and Somaliland and have managed to unify. Simple reality is that Hargeisa wants autonomy and Mogadishu wants an end to separatism. It’s unlikely Hargeisa’s dream of ever being a fully realized country will come to fruition and it’s also unlikely that Mogadishu will fully control the north without a bloody war. Confederation without the possible of secession is the most realistic solution. Reprogramming the brains of our northern brothers will take decades so there’s no use trying to force the federal system onto them. This won’t be offered to somaliland though until the FGS gets all FMS in line (namely Puntland).

 

[Keep it a boqol]

Huge goal for UPD is to utilize Galmudug land. Hobyo port was always envisioned as competition for garaad port which was not supported by any FGS.

If they’re able to get a deal where Ethiopia relies on and pays to use hobyo port out of all of the ports (SL ports, PL ports) it would be their ideal situation and the FGS will get tax revenue from it which is their main goal

 

[johnsepei5]

Tanzania got a $10 billion investment for their port from China, Morocco has attracted multibillion dollar investments and loans from the European Union and the World Bank to built the largest ports in Africa in Tangier and Dakhla. These old men in Somalia because of their myopic and divisive politics are throwing away one of Somalia’s biggest assets for pocket-change when they don’t even need a single neighbour to have booming ports, because 50% of the multi-trillion world container trade goes through their territorial waters.

50% of the multi-trillion world container trade goes through whose territorial water?

 

[Three Moons]

50% of the multi-trillion world container trade goes through whose territorial water?

“50% of the world's trade by volume travels through the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. By one estimate, approximately 20,000 ships traverse Somali waters annually. These vessels carry minerals, gas and huge containers filled with every type of consumer product. (The Pirate Myth: Genealogies of an Imperial Concept - Page 207 - Amedeo Policante)

 

[Zak12]

Why should we keep pushing for a fifth column inside our country?

Nearly all FMS are fifth columns sxb. Jubaland's actions for example are nearly are trecherous as Somaliland's. The fact of the matter is that all Somali clans hate each other and are at each other's throats. Its not a uniquely Isaaq thing and having SL leave won't improve or fix Somalia (losing nearly 30% of your country's territory is insane anyways).

The best way to fix the brainwashing and cuqdad is honest to god reconciliation. Tutsis suffered a devastating genocide by Hutus and they managed to forgive each other. Why can't Somalia do the same?

 

[FAST_LANE]

Huge goal for UPD is to utilize Galmudug land. Hobyo port was always envisioned as competition for garaad port which was not supported by any FGS.

If they’re able to get a deal where Ethiopia relies on and pays to use hobyo port out of all of the ports (SL ports, PL ports) it would be their ideal situation and the FGS will get tax revenue from it which is their main goal

That's how the Hawiye Brain works. If Ethiopia wants to pay for port, they already have the Djibouti one and even were offered Berbera for free( They had 19% stake on Berbera and they lost it since they couldn't complete their part of the requirement ).

Fact is Ethiopia wants free port without paying a penny.

 

[Periplus]

Ethiopia has stated sea access is an existential issue for them, meaning Somalis (FGS, SL and Djibouti) is holding onto a massive bargaining chip.

I am not against giving Ethiopia sea access but SL has given it for too low and selfish a price.

The FGS is even more stupid, selling it for practically no return.

The solution I would offer Ethiopia would be they can have a permanent settlement on the Red Sea coast in exchange for providing a referendum for Ogaden.

There will be clauses included such as they can’t interfere in the referendum or campaign or interfere in the Ogaden after. If the referendum fails, they will have to give Somali-Ethiopians constitutional protections against violence and serious representation in government.

This solution not only eliminates a geopolitical issue and eliminates Ethiopia as a military threat. It is also provides liberation to our people.