If Ethiopia recognizes SL will that make them vulnerable

[Apollo]

Ethiopia and somalis gdps are so insignificant (several individuals in my city make it look like chump change), that it docent even come on the radar to the US or the world economy, however Somalis location does as it could effect trillions

The Horn of Africa is relevant to global powers because of the strategic location (much of global trade goes through the Red Sea).

And Ethiopia is the main pawn in that region that is being used to oversee it.

 

[Tukraq]

Ethiopia can use Somalia's instability in it's favor it doesn't matter if it's landlocked it still holds massive influence in the region. Hence why countries go to addis for meetings and peace talks , Somalia hasn't got anything similar SL receiving recognization from them would kickstart everything for them.

thats only because our leaders have no spine, if we had common sense leadership we could easily use their instability(as much as ours) and there influence on us is by leaderships decision they don't have any actual influence (for example if I was leader id give them the complete cold shoulder current leadership has foreign interests like Ethiopias over Somalias)

 

[Tukraq]

The Horn of Africa is relevant to global powers because of the strategic location (much of global trade goes through the Red Sea).

And Ethiopia is the main pawn in that region that is being used to oversee it.

Ethiopia is landlocked has nothing to do with trade in the Red Sea

 

[Apollo]

Ethiopia is landlocked has nothing to do with trade in the Red Sea

Abiy just won a noble prize because of his peace talks with Eritrea.

 

[Medulla]

Ethiopia is landlocked has nothing to do with trade in the Red Sea

It already has access to Berbera port 19% is owned by the ethiopian gov , SL only owns like 30% they have access to the red sea. I'm pretty sure they have access to some ports in djbouti aswell but I'm not 100% sure

 

[Tukraq]

Abiye just won a noble prize because of his peace talks with Eritrea.

that still gives him zero access to the Red Sea, which somalia has making it far more important to the global economy off that alone

 

[Tukraq]

It already has access to Berbera port 19% is owned by the ethiopian gov SL only owns like 30% they have access to the red sea. I'm pretty sure they have access to some ports in djbouti aswell but I'm not 100% sure

somalia can always shut that down, no official government given ownership just like the Kenya water case, basically they legally own nothing

 

[Medulla]

somalia can always shut that down, no official government given ownership just like the Kenya water case, basically they legally own nothing

With DP World in the picture I don't think it will be that easy sxb. Ethiopia can fight it and will probably win a case if the central gov decided to pull a Iran on them. Over 400 million spent by both sides already they wouldn't have agreed on something like this without some sort of guarantee

 

[Glizzo da Goat]

Tukraq is right, Ethiopia recognizing SL doesn’t effect anything. Somehow you all believe if Ethiopia recognizes SL that actually relevant and powerful countries would soon follow like a ‘domino effect’?
Are you forgetting that Somalia has the longest coast line in all of Africa and 110 billion barrels of oil? Those two points make Somalia more valuable to the US and other powerful countries than Ethiopia. If we’re being complete honest the only reason why Ethiopia is being consulted with is because it has better leaders than Somalia.

 

[Tukraq]

With DP World in the picture I don't think it will be that easy sxb. Ethiopia can fight it and will probably win a case if the central gov decided to pull a Iran on them. Over 400 million spent by both sides already they wouldn't have agreed on something like this without some sort of guarantee

fed has legal rights to its ports, they can legally even sweep the rug from under DP worlds legs and win the case with the UN easily, if I were president it would happen day 1, currently Ethiopia and Dubai just have the feds in there pockets but there on borrowed time, especially with proper leadership as somalia would easily pass both nations

 

[Tukraq]

Tukraq is right, Ethiopia recognizing SL doesn’t effect anything. Somehow you all believe if Ethiopia recognizes SL that actually relevant and powerful countries would soon follow like a ‘domino effect’?
Are you forgetting that Somalia has the longest coast line in all of Africa and 110 billion barrels of oil? Those two points make Somalia more valuable to the US and other powerful countries than Ethiopia. If we’re being complete honest the only reason why Ethiopia is being consulted with is because it has better leaders than Somalia.

yup just utterly poor leadership, from an american point of view, wheres the oil? somalia, wheres the location? somalia, Ethiopia does nothing for the US, its just some useless African third world oilless country, if I was in charge for example Ethiopia would be a total after thought to the US as they deal with me and only me directly in the region(we've already seen Kenya lose US favor to us recently due to oil) plus I know how to speak there language(I would make a case to congress talking about our shared values using there talking point and shit), Ethiopia has no world influence and allies relevancy can be taken away by the president of somalia giving them the cold shoulder, they'd be totally irrelevant then

 

[Medulla]

Tukraq is right, Ethiopia recognizing SL doesn’t effect anything. Somehow you all believe if Ethiopia recognizes SL that actually relevant and powerful countries would soon follow like a ‘domino effect’?
Are you forgetting that Somalia has the longest coast line in all of Africa and 110 billion barrels of oil? Those two points make Somalia more valuable to the US and other powerful countries than Ethiopia. If we’re being complete honest the only reason why Ethiopia is being consulted with is because it has better leaders than Somalia.

The Oil isn't confirmed yet , if SL gains recognization Somalia wouldn't have the largest coastline south africa would SL would take a decent chunk. It's the red sea countries are interested in not really the indian ocean side .Yeah it may have better leaders currently we can be better in the future too. If SL is recognized more regions will go their seperate ways it's not gonna be good for us .

I really think you guys are underestimating Ethiopia influence here they are not just some random country. If they feel they can recognize SL and gain something from it they will do it . It just takes a single country for the others to follow much like the case with South Sudan ,ethiopia will probably have the same effect as sudan did to other nations following along.

 

[Tukraq]

The Oil isn't confirmed yet , if SL gains recognization Somalia wouldn't have the largest coastline south africa would SL would take a decent chunk. It's the red sea countries are interested in not really the indian ocean side .Yeah it may have better leaders currently we can be better in the future too. If SL is recognized more regions will go their seperate ways it's not gonna be good for us .

I really think you guys are underestimating Ethiopia influence here they are not just some random country. If they feel they can recognize SL and gain something from it they will do it . It just takes a single country for the others to follow much like the case with South Sudan ,ethiopia will probably have the same effect as sudan did to other nations following along.

recognized by who if by Ethiopia would be irrelevant and somalia would still have the largest coastline as that recognition would hold no merit, in the meantime I would instantly as president recognize oromia and start funding an oromia independence movement, Ethiopia has zero influence like I said all the influence rests on failmaajos shoulders and he could easily relegate them to zero status if he gives them the cold shoulder.

 

[Medulla]

recognized by who if by Ethiopia would be irrelevant and somalia would still have the largest coastline as that recognition would hold no merit, in the meantime I would instantly as president recognize oromia and start funding an oromia independence movement, Ethiopia has zero influence like I said all the influence rests on failmaajos shoulders and he could easily relegate them to zero status if he gives them the cold shoulder.

The same farmaajo who can't get PL to sign the oil plans ? Is going to fund Oromia come on bro be real here . Anyways let's agree to disagree I've stated my opinion and stance if you won't acknowledge ethiopia influence theres nothing more to be really said O.O .

 

[Odkac WRLD]

Average Joe American =/= Foreign Policy experts in DC.

Ethiopia is far more important to the US and the global economy than Somalia is. These are hard facts and not even debatable (total GDP of Ethiopia is ten times larger than Somalia's).

But under a stable government Somalia can provide a shit ton more value to the US than Ethiopia....
Uranium alone....

 

[Odkac WRLD]

The Horn of Africa is relevant to global powers because of the strategic location (much of global trade goes through the Red Sea).

And Ethiopia is the main pawn in that region that is being used to oversee it.

They are only the main pawn because they are the most stable in the eyes of the western countries

 

[Tukraq]

The same farmaajo who can't get PL to sign the oil plans ? Is going to fund Oromia come on bro be real here . Anyways let's agree to disagree I've stated my opinion and stance if you won't acknowledge ethiopia influence theres nothing more to be really said O.O .

failmaajo has a few months left, next leadership will be somalia first, funding an already organized and militant oromiya would be a piece of cake we just have to recognize them as a country as new president I would give oromo separatist leadership the call and recognize them, they have a far bigger case to nationhood than SL lol (throwing stones with glass houses)

 

[Tukraq]

They are only the main pawn because they are the most stable in the eyes of the western countries

there less stable, far more likely they collapse than we do lol, we just have leadership that isn't thinking and lobbying to the US correctly

 

[Odkac WRLD]

there less stable, far more likely they collapse than we do lol, we just have leadership that isn't thinking and lobbying to the US correctly

Yes the West believe they are stable, but I’m sure behind close doors they know they are just as much a shitshow as us if not worse

If I was President I would let the IcJ case continue in our favor, rekindle our partnerships with the US and Russia and get them to play off each other, use Turkish weapons to be able to back any threats we make towards any more Ethiopian meddling

once all the external issues were over with, I’d appeal to JL and PL to join with significant benefits if they do maybe a few top jobs

then I turn my head towards SL and with all the victories I’d have they would have to be somewhat impressed on the inside. If they refuse to rejoin I’ll leave them be until they do. However the slightest aggression from them and I’ll march, imprison the leaders, and put a puppet in their place

I’d also imprison HSM for treason, along with any other treasonous politicians who stole from their owncountry at
Its lowest point


I watch too much game of thrones , don’t I?

 

[Glizzo da Goat]

The Oil isn't confirmed yet , if SL gains recognization Somalia wouldn't have the largest coastline south africa would SL would take a decent chunk. It's the red sea countries are interested in not really the indian ocean side .Yeah it may have better leaders currently we can be better in the future too. If SL is recognized more regions will go their seperate ways it's not gonna be good for us .

I really think you guys are underestimating Ethiopia influence here they are not just some random country. If they feel they can recognize SL and gain something from it they will do it . It just takes a single country for the others to follow much like the case with South Sudan ,ethiopia will probably have the same effect as sudan did to other nations following along.

We both know Somalia has 110 billion barrels of oil, downplaying or ignoring that isn’t going to make it go away. You fail to recognize Somalia has much more resources than Ethiopia making it more valuable. Ethiopia doesn’t have any influence on the powerful countries that matter, it’s just a land locked, resourceless country that people only know about because it’s next to Somalia lol.
‘Somaliland’ is not gaining recognition anytime soon and never will so Somalia will continue to have the longest coastline, like let’s be real now.